2017-10-31

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 8, Final

Philadelphia over Jacksonville

If John Elway came out of retirement, could he be an improvement at QB for Denver this year? I'm not saying Denver could have beat Kansas City with him, but it might not have really gone any worse. Kansas City is still digging out from their 2 consecutive losses, and still trail Philadelphia for the top spot in the NFC by about 7 percentage points.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI7-10.63288.8597.3186.0648.5826.7014.59
JAC4-30.63969.5184.1863.0135.9220.4311.12
KC6-20.59591.2194.3573.4238.1119.549.73
PIT6-20.58685.0593.0871.6736.5918.308.95
LAR5-20.62350.1180.9957.8131.2416.648.93
MIN6-20.59976.9586.9164.4932.9916.538.46
BUF5-20.58748.9483.6859.0330.0515.077.38
NE6-20.56348.9486.3358.7828.1913.356.21
NO5-20.58561.4278.0152.2725.5412.396.16
SEA5-20.58649.2074.9849.6624.4911.995.99
BAL4-40.55112.7847.6424.9611.525.332.41
DAL4-30.56510.8739.5421.619.964.692.24
CAR5-30.51522.7844.3522.449.203.821.63
HOU3-40.54314.1730.2315.266.973.191.42
GB4-30.50612.6932.8315.716.312.571.08
ATL4-30.50214.2230.2315.086.002.421.00
TEN4-30.47116.2730.1513.675.292.050.77
DET3-40.5139.5619.288.953.651.520.65
CIN3-40.4672.1811.995.001.910.730.27
DEN3-40.4534.1613.285.431.990.740.26
LAC3-50.5022.497.353.291.370.580.23
WAS3-40.4620.278.133.241.150.430.16
OAK3-50.4572.145.662.280.840.310.11
MIA4-30.3622.019.423.230.920.260.07
TB2-50.4591.593.591.420.500.180.07
NYJ3-50.4390.122.480.920.320.120.04
CHI3-50.4140.802.000.700.220.070.02
ARI3-40.3680.691.730.550.150.040.01
NYG1-60.4010.010.090.030.010.000.00
IND2-60.3320.050.190.050.010.000.00
CLE0-80.3360.000.000.000.000.000.00
SF0-80.3430.000.000.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville

2017-10-30

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 8, Sunday

Philadelphia over Jacksonville

My projection stayed almost the same, with just the winner and loser swapping places, because Philadelphia won and Jacksonville was on bye. Jacksonville's playoff chances actually went up a little, but not as much as Philadelphia's did. We're getting to the point in the year when I have to run a whole lot of simulations to try to get every possible champion to hit at least once, because it'd be quite the rare universe where San Francisco wound up as your Superbowl champs. I ran 1 billion simulations, and the numbers I output for my own use still showed a 0.000000% chance, which means it was somewhere less than 5 out of that billion. By comparison, their odds of making the playoffs are about 40 in 100 million, and odds of making the Superbowl round to 1 in 100 million.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI7-10.63288.5797.2485.8648.4626.6414.67
JAC4-30.63969.5083.8163.9536.9221.2211.55
PIT6-20.58685.0792.9272.7637.6019.039.30
LAR5-20.62350.1180.9857.8231.2516.659.01
MIN6-20.59976.9586.9064.5033.0016.548.53
BUF5-20.58749.5083.4460.2431.0615.737.71
KC5-20.57878.1385.2561.5630.7915.267.33
NE6-20.56348.3985.2959.2728.7813.786.41
NO5-20.58461.4178.0052.2925.5512.406.22
SEA5-20.58649.2074.9749.6624.4911.996.04
BAL4-40.55112.7946.8925.1711.745.492.49
DAL4-30.56511.1539.9121.8410.074.742.28
CAR5-30.51522.7844.3322.439.203.821.65
HOU3-40.54314.1729.1615.147.013.251.45
GB4-30.50612.6932.8115.706.312.571.09
ATL4-30.50214.2230.2215.086.002.421.02
TEN4-30.47116.2729.4213.815.422.130.80
DEN3-30.47615.3326.9312.915.061.990.76
DET3-40.5139.5619.278.943.651.520.65
CIN3-40.4672.1511.454.911.900.740.28
LAC3-50.5023.567.783.581.510.640.26
WAS3-40.4620.277.963.171.130.420.16
OAK3-50.4572.985.972.470.920.350.13
MIA4-30.3622.009.123.250.940.270.08
TB2-50.4591.593.591.420.500.180.07
NYJ3-50.4390.122.400.920.330.120.04
CHI3-50.4140.802.000.700.220.070.02
ARI3-40.3680.691.730.550.150.040.01
NYG1-60.4010.010.100.030.010.000.00
IND2-60.3320.050.170.050.010.000.00
CLE0-80.3360.000.000.000.000.000.00
SF0-80.3430.000.000.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia

2017 World Series Projection, October 30

Houston over Los Angeles

World Series
HOU 3-2 LAD

League Championship Series
NYY 3-4 HOU
CHC 1-4 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthWin
LAD0.631226.76
HOU0.614973.24

Houston's now one win away from winning the World Series, and LA will have to win another game to stretch the series into November for game 7. This series has felt closer than a lot of recent matchups, with a few extra inning games, and some late lead changes. It definitely feels like one that will go a full 7 games, but we'll see what happens in game 6.

2017-10-29

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 9

Alabama was on bye and Georgia took advantage, retaking the #1 spot it held for 4 weeks earlier in the year. Penn State dropped from #3 to #4 due to their loss to Ohio State, who comes up to #8 with that win. The other big loss near the top was Washington state, down to #13 from #4, after losing to #26 Arizona.

Missouri won game 3 and is on the move now...up to #92. But maybe it'll save their coach's job for another year.

The bottom two teams stayed in position, but former #130 UMass has now won 2 in a row and risen all the way to #124.

1Georgia8-0
2Alabama8-0
3Wisconsin8-0
4Penn State7-1
5Clemson7-1
6Notre Dame7-1
7UCF7-0
8Ohio State7-1
9USC7-2
10Memphis7-1
11Miami7-0
12San Diego State7-2
13Washington State7-2
14TCU7-1
15Washington7-1
16Virginia Tech7-1
17Oklahoma7-1
18Oklahoma State7-1
19Toledo7-1
20NC State6-2
21Mississippi State6-2
22South Florida7-1
23Iowa State6-2
24Michigan State6-2
25Boise State6-2
26Arizona6-2
27Stanford6-2
28South Carolina6-2
29Auburn6-2
30LSU6-2
31Michigan6-2
32SMU6-2
33Kentucky6-2
34Northern Illinois6-2
35Troy6-2
36Boston College5-4
37Iowa5-3
38Texas A&M5-3
39Marshall6-2
40Oregon5-4
41Navy5-2
42Northwestern5-3
43Army6-2
44Colorado State6-3
45Houston5-3
46Wake Forest5-3
47Florida Intl5-2
48Florida Atlantic5-3
49Ohio6-2
50North Texas5-3
51Colorado5-4
52UCLA4-4
53Southern Mississippi5-3
54Akron5-4
55West Virginia5-3
56Virginia5-3
57Arizona State4-4
58Fresno State5-3
59Wyoming5-3
60Western Michigan5-3
61Louisville5-4
62Syracuse4-4
63Georgia Tech4-3
64Texas Tech4-4
65Maryland4-4
66California4-5
67Arkansas State5-2
68UT San Antonio5-2
69Nebraska4-4
70UAB5-3
71Texas4-4
72Pittsburgh4-5
73Appalachian State5-3
74Utah4-4
75Western Kentucky5-3
76Louisiana Tech4-4
77Air Force4-4
78Duke4-5
79Florida3-4
80Kansas State4-4
81Tulane3-5
82Georgia State4-3
83Central Michigan4-4
84Utah State4-5
85Minnesota4-4
86Indiana3-5
87Arkansas3-5
88Purdue3-5
89Tennessee3-5
90Vanderbilt3-5
91Ole Miss3-5
92Missouri3-5
93Temple3-5
94UNLV3-5
95Florida State2-5
96Middle Tennessee3-5
97Rutgers3-5
98Buffalo3-6
99New Mexico3-5
100Connecticut3-5
101Hawai'i3-5
102South Alabama3-5
103Miami (OH)3-5
104Louisiana3-4
105Cincinnati2-6
106Idaho3-5
107New Mexico State3-5
108East Carolina2-6
109Louisiana Monroe3-5
110Kent State2-6
111Eastern Michigan2-6
112Illinois2-6
113Tulsa2-7
114Old Dominion2-6
115Ball State2-6
116BYU2-7
117Oregon State1-7
118Bowling Green1-7
119Texas State2-6
120Nevada1-7
121North Carolina1-8
122Kansas1-7
123Charlotte1-7
124UMass2-6
125Rice1-7
126Coastal Carolina1-7
127Baylor0-8
128San Jose State1-8
129UTEP0-8
130Georgia Southern0-7

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia
Week 6 Georgia
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama

2017 World Series Projection, October 29

Los Angeles over Houston

World Series
HOU 2-2 LAD

League Championship Series
NYY 3-4 HOU
CHC 1-4 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthWin
LAD0.631252.59
HOU0.614947.41

The series is tied up again, and as I mentioned at 1-1, a shorter series always lessens the advantage of the favorite. So, LA's advantage is down just slightly to 52.59% from 53.24% when it was a 1-1 tie. They've got homefield advantage back, having now taken a game in Houston to make up for the game they gave up in LA.

2017-10-28

2017 World Series Projection, October 28

Houston over Los Angeles

World Series
HOU 2-1 LAD

League Championship Series
NYY 3-4 HOU
CHC 1-4 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthWin
LAD0.631233.89
HOU0.614966.11

For the first time in a quite awhile, LA is no longer the favorite. Houston's 2-1 lead puts them in the driver's seat, and they could potentially win the next two at home to take the series.

2017-10-27

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 8, Thursday

Jacksonville over Philadelphia

Miami's playoff chances didn't actually fall all that much from their 40-0 shutout at the hands of Baltimore, but their strength fell from .447 to .362. That's pretty low for a team whose record is actually above .500. On the other side, Baltimore went from .459 to .551, and lifted their playoff chances from 21% to 48%. However, that doesn't take into consideration whatever time they may be without Joe Flacco.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
JAC4-30.63964.4582.0164.6438.3822.6212.79
PHI6-10.59486.4894.7180.9043.7522.8611.92
LAR5-20.62357.1884.1064.2136.4920.5211.31
PIT5-20.57479.1388.0066.1134.0317.158.52
KC5-20.57873.1683.7264.4333.3416.938.49
SEA4-20.59042.0870.7548.7925.4313.266.87
MIN5-20.56462.6678.6756.4127.8113.516.64
NE5-20.55152.3075.9153.1025.7712.275.82
NO4-20.56758.9970.9647.4223.3311.415.63
BUF4-20.54542.6367.1344.9821.4710.084.72
BAL4-40.55118.3648.4727.6613.266.363.02
HOU3-30.55020.5039.4322.8911.055.342.53
DAL3-30.54110.7229.7216.447.613.541.66
DET3-30.52118.5032.2017.097.533.341.50
GB4-30.50616.2736.0818.858.013.431.49
CAR4-30.48117.8231.0615.336.132.471.01
ATL3-30.49114.9026.6613.845.702.360.99
TEN4-30.47114.9228.4114.255.772.330.93
DEN3-30.47613.3125.9913.275.382.180.87
LAC3-40.5146.3216.758.703.871.720.75
WAS3-30.4882.7622.6910.734.361.800.75
OAK3-40.4987.2117.498.893.791.620.68
TB2-40.4898.2913.676.472.631.080.45
CIN2-40.4632.518.743.921.550.610.24
NYJ3-40.4491.146.452.801.060.400.15
CHI3-40.4332.566.542.770.990.350.13
MIA4-30.3623.9310.924.191.250.370.11
ARI3-40.3680.742.050.700.210.060.02
IND2-50.3410.130.560.180.050.010.00
NYG1-60.4010.050.150.050.020.010.00
CLE0-70.3630.000.010.000.000.000.00
SF0-70.3810.000.000.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia

2017-10-26

October Card Show Autographs

I'm back to going to my local card show regularly, and collecting autographs of any Cardinals I don't have yet. This time I actually added a duplicate. I got a Kyle McClellan autograph at a free signing several in the fall of 2011, oddly enough during one of his best seasons. This one wasn't very expensive, and I got it authenticated pretty cheaply as well, so I decided to add it to my collection.

Dick SchofieldKyle McClellan
Dick "Ducky" Schofield was there along with his son, also Dick Schofield. As Junior didn't play for the Cardinals, I opted not to get his autograph. Senior played for the Cardinals 3 separate times, starting off his career from 1953-1958 when he was traded away midseason. He signed with the team for 1968 and was traded away again in the offseason, to the Red Sox, who traded him back to St. Louis after the 1970 season, but he was once again traded away after another half-season in July 1971.

2017 World Series Projection, October 26

Los Angeles over Houston

World Series
HOU 1-1 LAD

League Championship Series
NYY 3-4 HOU
CHC 1-4 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthWin
LAD0.631253.24
HOU0.614946.76

Houston finally won another road game, and the World Series is tied 1-1. We're back to pretty even odds, with LA favored by 53.24%. That's slightly below the 53.78% they started at, because now it is effectively a 5-game series. Longer series always raise the chances for the favorite, while shorter ones maximize the chances an underdog can advance.

2017-10-25

2017 World Series Projection, October 25

Los Angeles over Houston

World Series
HOU 0-1 LAD

League Championship Series
NYY 3-4 HOU
CHC 1-4 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthWin
LAD0.631268.81
HOU0.614931.19

With a 1-0 lead, I give LA over a 2 in 3 shot at winning the title. Houston has still only won one road game this postseason. We'll see if they can get a second tonight.

2017-10-24

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 7, Final

Jacksonville over Philadelphia

As I suspected, Philadelphia took back the NFC favorite spot with their win. It's more because of their 6-1 record than their strength, though, because they're still behind the Rams in strength. So while that means LA would be favored in a head to head matchup, Philadelphia makes the Superbowl more often in my simulations.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
JAC4-30.63962.9481.5964.9238.9123.1113.06
PHI6-10.59486.4894.6880.8643.7222.8511.98
LAR5-20.62357.1784.0164.1236.4520.4911.35
PIT5-20.57488.9592.3670.7336.8318.709.30
KC5-20.57872.8583.4464.2033.5817.188.62
SEA4-20.59042.0970.5948.6625.3613.226.89
MIN5-20.56461.3078.2056.0227.6113.426.63
NO4-20.56759.8371.2547.5923.4211.455.69
NE5-20.55147.5572.7850.6724.8511.925.65
BUF4-20.54538.4863.7442.6120.549.724.55
HOU3-30.55021.3641.7024.7112.015.852.78
DAL3-30.54110.7229.5116.327.563.521.66
DET3-30.52119.2633.6917.987.923.511.59
GB4-30.50616.9837.7319.848.433.601.57
TEN4-30.47115.5630.3215.616.372.601.03
ATL3-30.49115.1826.7013.855.702.361.00
CAR4-30.48117.0429.5814.535.812.340.96
MIA4-20.44712.9234.7017.776.772.560.95
DEN3-30.47613.1725.6213.185.392.200.88
LAC3-40.5146.8117.489.164.111.850.81
WAS3-30.4882.7622.5610.674.341.800.75
OAK3-40.4987.1617.358.883.811.640.69
BAL3-40.4597.6921.139.703.791.480.57
TB2-40.4897.9512.926.102.471.020.43
CIN2-40.4633.3510.384.691.870.750.29
NYJ3-40.4491.056.762.941.120.430.16
CHI3-40.4332.466.422.720.970.350.13
ARI3-40.3680.742.020.690.210.060.02
IND2-50.3410.140.630.200.060.020.00
NYG1-60.4010.050.140.050.020.010.00
CLE0-70.3630.010.010.000.000.000.00
SF0-70.3810.000.000.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams

2017-10-23

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 7, Sunday

Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams

We're back to the same projection from Week 1, which I was incredulous about at the time. Philadelphia plays Monday night, and will probably jump back ahead of the Rams with a win, but for now they're the NFC favorite. Both Jacksonville and LA jumped so far ahead due to shutouts this week. There was a third shutout, LA over Denver, and nearly a fourth, but Atlanta scored a meaningless touchdown toward the end of the Sunday night game.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
JAC4-30.63962.9281.5864.9138.8923.1013.15
LAR5-20.62357.4883.6264.6036.9921.0911.69
PIT5-20.57488.9692.3670.7136.8618.739.40
PHI5-10.57972.6186.6169.1536.1918.409.37
KC5-20.57872.8683.4564.1933.5817.188.70
SEA4-20.59041.7969.8148.8425.6813.577.08
MIN5-20.56460.9677.3556.4628.2413.876.86
NO4-20.56759.5870.4847.9723.9411.825.87
NE5-20.55147.5372.7850.6724.8511.925.71
BUF4-20.54538.4963.7642.6220.529.704.58
HOU3-30.55021.3641.6924.7112.025.862.80
DAL3-30.54114.0829.5916.827.913.721.75
WAS3-20.50813.2336.7120.569.003.911.72
DET3-30.52119.3933.0217.998.073.611.63
GB4-30.50617.1336.8019.788.553.701.62
TEN4-30.47115.5830.3415.616.362.601.04
ATL3-30.49115.2926.2713.915.832.441.03
CAR4-30.48117.1328.7314.435.882.400.99
MIA4-20.44712.9334.7117.796.782.560.97
DEN3-30.47613.1625.5813.175.382.190.89
LAC3-40.5146.7017.259.054.061.820.81
OAK3-40.4987.2817.599.023.871.660.71
BAL3-40.4597.6821.129.713.791.480.57
TB2-40.4898.0012.616.042.501.040.43
CIN2-40.4633.3510.384.701.870.750.29
NYJ3-40.4491.046.762.941.120.430.16
CHI3-40.4332.526.332.730.990.360.13
ARI3-40.3680.721.890.660.200.060.02
IND2-50.3410.140.640.200.060.020.00
NYG1-60.4010.080.170.060.020.010.00
CLE0-70.3630.010.010.000.000.000.00
SF0-70.3810.000.000.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City

2017-10-22

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 8

Alabama retained their #1 ranking this week, in part because Georgia had a bye week. Penn State moved up to #3 from #7 with a big win over #31 Michigan. We're down to a mere 8 undefeated teams, but due to byes and hurricanes, 2 are 6-0, 1 is 8-0, and the rest are 7-0. If Miami or UCF make the playoffs with a shorter season, my system won't be kind to them, and just might give #1 to a team that doesn't win the title game.

Missouri finally won another game to move to 2-5, over Idaho, also 2-5. They rank just a smidge above Idaho now, 109 to 114.

At the bottom, UMass managed to pull themselves up out of last place with a win. The team they defeated, Georgia Southern, takes over the #130 position.

1Alabama8-0
2Georgia7-0
3Penn State7-0
4Washington State7-1
5Wisconsin7-0
6TCU7-0
7Clemson6-1
8South Florida7-0
9NC State6-1
10Miami6-0
11UCF6-0
12Notre Dame6-1
13Memphis6-1
14USC6-2
15Michigan State6-1
16Washington6-1
17San Diego State6-2
18Virginia Tech6-1
19Ohio State6-1
20Toledo6-1
21LSU6-2
22Auburn6-2
23Oklahoma State6-1
24Oklahoma6-1
25Marshall6-1
26Stanford5-2
27Boise State5-2
28Mississippi State5-2
29Colorado State6-2
30Texas A&M5-2
31Michigan5-2
32South Carolina5-2
33Iowa State5-2
34Navy5-2
35Army6-2
36SMU5-2
37Arizona5-2
38Kentucky5-2
39Ohio6-2
40Northern Illinois5-2
41Troy5-2
42Virginia5-2
43Fresno State5-2
44Louisville5-3
45Boston College4-4
46West Virginia5-2
47Southern Mississippi5-2
48UCLA4-3
49Arizona State4-3
50Western Michigan5-3
51Iowa4-3
52Syracuse4-4
53Oregon4-4
54Texas Tech4-3
55California4-4
56Wake Forest4-3
57Georgia Tech4-2
58Appalachian State5-2
59Houston4-3
60Northwestern4-3
61Florida Atlantic4-3
62North Texas4-3
63Florida Intl4-2
64Colorado4-4
65Akron4-4
66Utah4-3
67Western Kentucky5-2
68Wyoming4-3
69Florida3-3
70Minnesota4-3
71Tulane3-4
72Duke4-4
73UT San Antonio4-2
74Central Michigan4-4
75Utah State4-4
76Arkansas State4-2
77Indiana3-4
78Maryland3-4
79Ole Miss3-4
80Purdue3-4
81Nebraska3-4
82Texas3-4
83Pittsburgh3-5
84Vanderbilt3-4
85UAB4-3
86Tennessee3-4
87Louisiana Tech3-4
88Florida State2-4
89Connecticut3-4
90Kansas State3-4
91Georgia State3-3
92New Mexico3-4
93Temple3-5
94Buffalo3-5
95South Alabama3-4
96Rutgers3-4
97Middle Tennessee3-5
98Air Force3-4
99Miami (OH)3-5
100Hawai'i3-4
101Cincinnati2-6
102Arkansas2-5
103Louisiana Monroe3-4
104New Mexico State3-4
105Louisiana3-4
106East Carolina2-6
107Eastern Michigan2-5
108Kent State2-6
109Missouri2-5
110Tulsa2-6
111Illinois2-5
112Old Dominion2-5
113UNLV2-5
114Idaho2-5
115Ball State2-5
116Oregon State1-6
117Kansas1-6
118North Carolina1-7
119Bowling Green1-7
120Nevada1-7
121BYU1-7
122Rice1-6
123Charlotte1-7
124Coastal Carolina1-6
125Texas State1-6
126San Jose State1-7
127UMass1-6
128Baylor0-7
129UTEP0-7
130Georgia Southern0-6

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia
Week 6 Georgia
Week 7 Alabama

2017 World Series Projection, October 22

Los Angeles over Houston

World Series
HOU 0-0 LAD

League Championship Series
NYY 3-4 HOU
CHC 1-4 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthWin
LAD0.631253.78
HOU0.614946.22

Houston finished off the all-home-winner ALCS, and advances to their first World Series as an American League team. For awhile there I was sort of rooting for them and Milwaukee to play, making it the first appearance for each team in their new league. I've got Los Angeles favored by a little, but they have homefield, so Houston's going to have to break out of their road slump to have a chance.

2017-10-21

2017 World Series Projection, October 21

Los Angeles over New York

League Championship Series
NYY 3-3 HOU
CHC 1-4 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.6312100.0052.97
NYY0.621950.7324.26
HOU0.614949.2722.77

Houston continued the ALCS pattern of the home team winning each game, which bodes well for them tonight. I still show New York slightly favored, but I was curious what sort of homefield advantage factor would tip the scales toward Houston. As it turns out, if you assume home teams have a winning percentage somewhere between .507 and .508, the odds even out at 50%. So, in short, flip a coin on this one.

2017-10-20

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 7, Thursday

Philadelphia over Kansas City

After losing their second game in a row, Kansas City has yielded the Superbowl favorite position to Philadelphia. It was a 1 point loss, so their strength was minimally affected, but the loss dropped their playoff chances down to 82.5%.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI5-10.57978.5989.6574.8940.9922.2411.92
KC5-20.57864.0882.5366.0836.4619.8810.58
JAC3-30.59050.1166.2648.7627.3115.188.26
LAR4-20.56950.8566.8547.0124.9313.156.92
PIT4-20.54065.4675.2753.8327.1213.466.65
MIN4-20.54644.8365.7645.7523.0611.515.79
BUF3-20.54242.0360.2642.1921.2810.605.25
SEA3-20.55241.4755.8136.7818.739.524.85
NE4-20.52241.5261.4141.8220.179.614.57
NO3-20.55034.6452.0034.5517.478.794.46
HOU3-30.55131.6146.6729.8015.317.833.95
GB4-20.52432.2754.6335.0316.737.953.82
DEN3-20.52527.5850.5133.0716.007.753.71
CAR4-20.51330.4149.5330.9314.426.693.15
ATL3-20.52425.3844.1728.2613.516.423.09
WAS3-20.50814.2239.5422.9310.524.872.27
DET3-30.52221.6234.8120.109.534.512.16
CIN2-30.50316.3727.9416.097.423.411.56
BAL3-30.47718.1133.4718.287.933.431.48
TEN3-30.46816.7125.5013.735.902.531.07
OAK3-40.4986.1518.7410.224.662.140.97
TB2-30.4949.5617.069.224.101.830.83
MIA3-20.43110.3823.0612.104.711.830.71
DAL2-30.4876.7915.067.913.481.550.69
NYJ3-30.4526.0717.268.763.591.470.60
LAC2-40.4662.197.793.861.650.710.30
ARI3-30.4257.5811.164.961.890.720.28
CHI2-40.4121.282.851.210.440.160.06
IND2-40.3831.563.221.370.480.170.06
NYG1-50.4390.390.980.420.160.070.03
SF0-60.4320.090.140.060.020.010.00
CLE0-60.3790.070.100.030.010.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia

2017 World Series Projection, October 20

Los Angeles over New York

League Championship Series
NYY 3-2 HOU
CHC 1-4 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.6312100.0052.57
NYY0.621975.7336.22
HOU0.614924.2711.22

LA finished off the series against Chicago with an 11-1 blowout, and advances to their first World Series since their 1988 win. They've never faced Houston in the World Series, obviously, since they were an NL team until a few years ago. But, their 3 previous appearances before 1988 were all against New York, and they've faced off 11 times total, going back to the Brooklyn Dodgers. I give it about a 3 in 4 chance of matchup #12 happening this year.

2017-10-19

2017 World Series Projection, October 19

Los Angeles over New York

League Championship Series
NYY 3-2 HOU
CHC 1-3 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.631291.1647.92
NYY0.621975.7337.01
HOU0.614924.2711.47
CHC0.57898.843.60

Chicago kept their series alive for another day, and will try to do the same today. Meanwhile, New York won their third game in a row to go up 3-2 after trailing 0-2.

2017-10-18

2017 World Series Projection, October 18

Los Angeles over New York

League Championship Series
NYY 2-2 HOU
CHC 0-3 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.631296.0650.87
NYY0.621951.1024.68
HOU0.614948.9022.83
CHC0.57893.941.62

LA is on the brink of a sweep, while New York tied up their series to regain a slight advantage. With pretty much everyone available for Chicago tonight we might see even more pitching changes than usual for this postseason, but LA looks unstoppable so far.

2017-10-17

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 6, Final

Kansas City over Philadelphia

Monday night games between non-contenders never affect things much. Tennessee improved to 3-3, but is still sub-.500 considering their points scored and allowed, and has a 25% chance of making the playoffs, up from 15% before the game. Meanwhile, Indianapolis dropped to 3.28% from 8.81%, but the top teams barely budged, nor did their fellow AFC South teams Jacksonville and Houston, also both 3-3.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC5-10.58074.7789.7876.2242.3223.1412.37
PHI5-10.57978.6289.6574.9041.0022.2411.87
JAC3-30.58950.0966.3448.1026.8114.808.05
LAR4-20.56950.8366.8246.9824.9213.146.88
PIT4-20.54065.4875.3752.9726.5513.096.46
MIN4-20.54644.8165.7545.7423.0511.515.76
BUF3-20.54242.0260.4141.6420.8710.345.12
SEA3-20.55241.4955.8136.7818.739.524.83
NE4-20.52241.5361.6841.4619.879.414.47
NO3-20.55034.6352.0034.5517.478.794.43
HOU3-30.55031.6147.0629.5915.117.683.87
GB4-20.52432.2854.6335.0316.747.953.80
DEN3-20.52521.0949.8731.2514.967.233.46
CAR4-20.51330.4349.5530.9414.436.703.13
ATL3-20.52425.3844.1928.2713.516.433.08
WAS3-20.50814.2139.5022.9110.514.872.25
DET3-30.52121.6334.8220.129.534.522.15
CIN2-30.50316.3728.0915.927.293.341.52
BAL3-30.47718.0833.4417.957.723.321.43
TEN3-30.46816.7325.7013.575.792.461.04
TB2-30.4949.5617.069.224.111.830.82
MIA3-20.43110.3823.1711.964.621.780.69
DAL2-30.4876.7815.067.903.481.550.68
NYJ3-30.4526.0717.468.743.551.450.59
OAK2-40.4962.7210.715.622.531.150.52
ARI3-30.4257.5911.174.961.890.730.28
LAC2-40.4661.427.543.611.520.650.27
CHI2-40.4121.282.861.210.440.160.06
IND2-40.3831.563.281.370.470.160.06
NYG1-50.4390.390.980.420.160.070.03
SF0-60.4320.090.140.060.020.010.00
CLE0-60.3800.070.100.040.010.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia

2017 World Series Projection, October 17

Los Angeles over Houston

League Championship Series
NYY 1-2 HOU
CHC 0-2 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.631287.3346.51
NYY0.621932.3615.96
HOU0.614967.6432.28
CHC0.578912.675.24

New York won their first game of the series, but still trails 2-1 in the series, and about 2:1 in the odds. The NLCS resumes today after an off day, and the ALCS continues as well.

2017-10-16

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 6, Sunday

Kansas City over Philadelphia

The races tightened a bit at the edges, with undefeated Kansas City losing to at home to Pittsburgh, and the winless Giants winning in Denver. But, the projected Superbowl matchup remains the same. I actually attended the game in Kansas City this week, my first NFL game outside of St. Louis. There was a healthy contingent of Pittsburgh fans, but the game was close and interesting enough to keep the crowd focused on that instead of hassling each other too much.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC5-10.58074.9289.9976.4642.5023.2312.42
PHI5-10.57978.6189.6474.8540.9722.2211.85
JAC3-30.58952.7467.6949.0927.3715.118.22
LAR4-20.56951.1267.1747.3225.1013.236.93
PIT4-20.54065.4775.6853.3826.7713.206.52
MIN4-20.54644.8165.7145.7023.0411.505.75
BUF3-20.54241.7760.4841.6620.8810.345.13
SEA3-20.55241.1355.6636.6918.689.494.81
NE4-20.52241.6862.0241.7220.019.474.51
NO3-20.55034.6351.9534.5017.458.784.43
HOU3-30.55032.8247.9630.1115.387.813.94
GB4-20.52432.2854.6035.0116.727.953.80
DEN3-20.52520.9249.9231.2514.967.223.46
CAR4-20.51330.4149.4930.8914.416.693.13
ATL3-20.52425.3944.1428.2413.496.423.07
WAS3-20.50814.2139.4522.8810.494.862.25
DET3-30.52121.6234.7820.089.524.512.15
CIN2-30.50316.3828.5216.207.423.391.55
BAL3-30.47718.0933.9818.267.863.381.46
TB2-30.4949.5717.059.214.101.830.82
MIA3-20.43110.4323.3912.084.671.800.69
DAL2-30.4876.7915.057.903.481.550.68
NYJ3-30.4526.1117.768.893.611.470.60
OAK2-40.4962.7410.835.682.561.160.52
TEN2-30.4439.8115.187.443.001.210.48
ARI3-30.4257.6611.335.051.920.740.28
LAC2-40.4671.427.693.691.550.660.28
IND2-30.4024.628.814.031.460.530.19
CHI2-40.4121.292.861.210.440.160.06
NYG1-50.4390.390.980.420.160.070.03
SF0-60.4320.090.140.060.020.010.00
CLE0-60.3800.070.100.040.010.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia

2017 World Series Projection, October 16

Los Angeles over Houston

League Championship Series
NYY 0-2 HOU
CHC 0-2 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.631287.3346.69
NYY0.621919.689.71
HOU0.614980.3238.34
CHC0.578912.675.27

LA took a 2-0 lead, which combined with their strength advantage, gives them about a 7 in 8 chance of advancing. The ALCS resumes tonight.

2017-10-15

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 7

No time for analysis this week, except to say Missouri dragged down Georgia because they're so bad, and Alabama takes #1.

1Alabama7-0
2Georgia7-0
3Clemson6-1
4USC6-1
5NC State6-1
6San Diego State6-1
7Penn State6-0
8TCU6-0
9Washington6-1
10Washington State6-1
11Ohio State6-1
12Wisconsin6-0
13South Florida6-0
14Miami5-0
15Michigan State5-1
16Stanford5-2
17Texas A&M5-2
18UCF5-0
19Memphis5-1
20Virginia Tech5-1
21Michigan5-1
22South Carolina5-2
23Notre Dame5-1
24Navy5-1
25Toledo5-1
26Auburn5-2
27LSU5-2
28Virginia5-1
29Oklahoma5-1
30Kentucky5-1
31Oklahoma State5-1
32Iowa4-2
33Marshall5-1
34Oregon4-3
35California4-3
36Colorado State5-2
37Boise State4-2
38Texas Tech4-2
39Wake Forest4-2
40Northern Illinois4-2
41Mississippi State4-2
42Army5-2
43Syracuse4-3
44SMU4-2
45Iowa State4-2
46North Texas4-2
47Arizona4-2
48Ohio5-2
49Houston4-2
50Western Michigan4-2
51Utah4-2
52West Virginia4-2
53Troy4-2
54Louisville4-3
55Florida Intl4-2
56Duke4-3
57Southern Mississippi4-2
58Arizona State3-3
59Wyoming4-2
60Fresno State4-2
61Colorado4-3
62Florida3-3
63Appalachian State4-2
64UCLA3-3
65UAB4-2
66Boston College3-4
67Tulane3-3
68Indiana3-3
69Purdue3-3
70Ole Miss3-3
71Maryland3-3
72Georgia Tech3-2
73Texas3-3
74Nebraska3-4
75Florida Atlantic3-3
76Northwestern3-3
77Vanderbilt3-4
78Florida State2-3
79Western Kentucky4-2
80Louisiana Tech3-3
81Minnesota3-3
82Tennessee3-3
83Georgia State3-2
84Buffalo3-4
85Kansas State3-3
86UT San Antonio3-2
87Akron3-3
88Middle Tennessee3-4
89New Mexico3-3
90Utah State3-4
91Louisiana Monroe3-3
92Temple3-4
93Louisiana3-3
94Arkansas State3-2
95Central Michigan3-4
96Arkansas2-4
97Cincinnati2-5
98Hawai'i3-4
99New Mexico State3-4
100Pittsburgh2-5
101Tulsa2-5
102Eastern Michigan2-4
103Air Force2-4
104Connecticut2-4
105Kent State2-5
106Illinois2-4
107Rutgers2-4
108South Alabama2-4
109UNLV2-4
110Old Dominion2-4
111Idaho2-4
112Ball State2-4
113Miami (OH)2-5
114Missouri1-5
115East Carolina1-6
116Oregon State1-6
117North Carolina1-6
118Nevada1-6
119Kansas1-5
120BYU1-6
121Rice1-5
122Bowling Green1-6
123Coastal Carolina1-5
124Texas State1-6
125San Jose State1-7
126Georgia Southern0-5
127Baylor0-6
128Charlotte0-7
129UTEP0-7
130UMass0-6

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia
Week 6 Georgia