2017-04-27

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 27

Washington over Edmonton

Round 2
NSH 1-0 STL
EDM 1-0 ANA
PIT 0-0 WSH
NYR 0-0 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67670.354.641.9
EDM0.57669.742.115.9
NYR0.57565.520.911.3
PIT0.59229.718.110.8
NSH0.53465.126.67.8
ANA0.55430.316.95.7
STL0.53734.914.54.3
OTT0.49534.56.42.3

The second round has kicked off, and both road teams won game 1 in the West, and both Nashville and Edmonton are over 65% likely to win. Tonight the Eastern Conference semifinals start.

2017-04-24

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 24

Washington over Edmonton

Round 2
NSH 0-0 STL
EDM 0-0 ANA
PIT 0-0 WSH
NYR 0-0 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67670.354.642.1
EDM0.57653.232.012.1
NYR0.57565.520.911.4
PIT0.59229.718.110.9
ANA0.55446.826.08.8
STL0.53752.222.16.6
NSH0.53447.819.95.8
OTT0.49534.56.42.4

The US and Canadian capital cities both finished off their series, and we've got round 2 all lined up. No series in round 1 went to 7 games, but thanks to staggering the games, there will only be 2 off days before games resume Wednesday

2017-04-23

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 23

Washington over Edmonton

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-3 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-3 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67688.562.247.937.0
EDM0.576100.053.232.012.7
PIT0.592100.034.020.412.3
NYR0.575100.062.121.111.5
ANA0.554100.046.826.09.2
STL0.537100.052.222.17.0
NSH0.534100.047.819.96.1
BOS0.54930.413.94.12.0
OTT0.49569.624.04.91.8
TOR0.51811.53.71.50.6

Three games finished three series on Saturday, as St. Louis, New York, and Edmonton all advanced. Edmonton is also the new Western Conference favorite. The last two series could end today, or we could have one or two game 7s, which I assume would be on Tuesday after a day off Monday.

2017-04-22

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 22

Washington over Anaheim

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 3-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-3 EDM
TOR 2-3 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 3-2 MON
BOS 2-3 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67688.562.248.236.7
PIT0.592100.034.020.612.1
EDM0.57678.041.523.79.3
ANA0.554100.048.225.28.9
NYR0.57576.747.616.28.6
NSH0.534100.044.018.65.7
STL0.53778.641.117.85.6
MIN0.62121.415.09.64.7
MON0.56123.314.54.52.3
BOS0.54930.413.94.11.9
OTT0.49569.624.04.91.8
SJS0.54722.010.35.11.7
TOR0.51811.53.71.60.6

Washington's back to nearly 50% likely to win the East, even though closing out this series will leave them one of 4 teams remaining. And Boston won to avoid elimination against Ottawa.

Today, St. Louis will try to finish off their series with Minnesota, and New York and Edmonton will need to win to avoid going to game 7.

2017-04-21

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 21

Washington over Anaheim

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 3-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-3 EDM
TOR 2-2 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 3-2 MON
BOS 1-3 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67675.152.841.031.2
PIT0.592100.039.123.814.0
EDM0.57678.041.523.79.8
NYR0.57576.748.917.99.6
ANA0.554100.048.225.29.4
NSH0.534100.044.018.66.0
STL0.53778.641.117.85.9
MIN0.62121.415.09.64.9
MON0.56123.314.95.02.6
OTT0.49584.729.26.62.4
SJS0.54722.010.35.11.8
TOR0.51824.98.13.41.4
BOS0.54915.37.02.21.0

Two more teams advanced last night, knocking Chicago and Columbus out of the playoffs. Tonight Ottawa could eliminate Boston, and Toronto and Washington will resume their tied series.

I noticed St. Louis's cup chances went down slightly, from 6% to 5.9%, and that seemed weird to me, because the weaker-on-paper Nashville eliminated Chicago. Taking a closer look, their chances of beating Nashville went up, from 40.4% to 41%, but their chances of making the finals dropped slightly, because Edmonton again took the lead in their series. So while the Central division playoff bracket got a little weaker, the Pacific got stronger, more than enough to make up for it.

2017-04-20

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 20

Washington over Anaheim

Round 1
NSH 3-0 CHI
STL 3-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-2 EDM
TOR 2-2 WSH
CBJ 1-3 PIT
NYR 2-2 MON
BOS 1-3 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67675.152.240.831.1
PIT0.59286.733.920.812.3
ANA0.554100.049.525.79.6
EDM0.57656.830.217.17.0
NYR0.57549.731.711.56.2
STL0.53778.640.417.96.0
NSH0.53492.140.517.45.6
MON0.56150.332.110.85.5
MIN0.62121.414.89.64.9
SJS0.54743.220.310.03.5
CBJ0.62013.35.94.02.6
OTT0.49584.729.26.52.3
TOR0.51824.98.03.41.4
BOS0.54915.37.02.21.0
CHI0.5687.94.32.30.9

Calgary is the first team out, and Anaheim is the first to advance, in a 4-0 sweep. The Blues couldn't finish theirs last night, so they'll play again after another 2 day break. In the East, Washington tied their series, and the frantic hockey pundits can breathe for a few more days.

2017-04-19

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 19

Washington over Anaheim

Round 1
NSH 3-0 CHI
STL 3-0 MIN
CGY 0-3 ANA
SJS 2-2 EDM
TOR 2-1 WSH
CBJ 1-3 PIT
NYR 2-2 MON
BOS 1-2 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67657.840.231.224.0
PIT0.59286.739.524.014.4
ANA0.55495.747.425.310.0
EDM0.57656.830.517.77.7
STL0.53788.545.520.37.2
NYR0.57549.730.312.06.5
NSH0.53492.142.118.26.3
MON0.56150.330.711.25.9
SJS0.54743.220.510.33.9
BOS0.54939.518.16.23.0
CBJ0.62013.36.84.53.0
MIN0.62111.57.95.22.7
TOR0.51842.213.55.62.3
OTT0.49560.520.95.21.9
CHI0.5687.94.42.41.0
CGY0.5114.31.60.70.2

Columbus avoided elimination, and New York and San Jose both evened their series at 2-2. For some reason the Blues got a second consecutive day off, and not even during a travel period, so they'll try to finish off their sweep tonight, as will Anaheim. St. Louis would get a whole lot of rest before the second round, but Nashville could finish off Chicago tomorrow and have only one less day off before meeting up with St. Louis.

2017-04-18

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 18

Washington over Anaheim

Round 1
NSH 3-0 CHI
STL 3-0 MIN
CGY 0-3 ANA
SJS 1-2 EDM
TOR 2-1 WSH
CBJ 0-3 PIT
NYR 1-2 MON
BOS 1-2 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67657.840.431.424.1
PIT0.59292.342.125.715.3
EDM0.57673.139.322.89.9
ANA0.55495.746.424.89.8
MON0.56166.740.615.07.7
STL0.53788.545.519.97.1
NSH0.53492.142.117.96.2
NYR0.57533.320.38.14.4
BOS0.54939.518.16.33.0
MIN0.62111.57.95.12.7
SJS0.54726.912.86.42.4
TOR0.51842.213.65.72.4
OTT0.49560.520.95.21.9
CBJ0.6207.73.92.61.7
CHI0.5687.94.42.41.0
CGY0.5114.31.50.70.2

All 4 games went to overtime yesterday. I wonder how many times that's happened, if ever. Nashville and Anaheim took 3-0 leads, while Toronto and Ottawa took 2-1 leads. We could have 4 first round sweeps, and again, I don't know how that would compare to history, though maybe I'll look it up if we get at least 3. Also, We're back in that odd situation where Edmonton is not favored to win the West but is the most likely cup winner from the West. Washington remains on top despite trailing 2-1 in their series, due to their massive strength compared to everyone else.

2017-04-17

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 17

Washington over Edmonton

Round 1
NSH 2-0 CHI
STL 3-0 MIN
CGY 0-2 ANA
SJS 1-2 EDM
TOR 1-1 WSH
CBJ 0-3 PIT
NYR 1-2 MON
BOS 1-1 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67676.553.541.331.7
PIT0.59292.335.621.512.8
EDM0.57673.140.223.09.4
ANA0.55485.241.321.88.1
MON0.56166.739.013.06.7
STL0.53788.544.319.66.5
NSH0.53478.435.915.45.0
BOS0.54961.828.38.84.2
NYR0.57533.319.57.13.8
CHI0.56821.612.16.52.6
MIN0.62111.57.85.02.6
SJS0.54726.913.16.52.3
CBJ0.6207.73.42.21.5
TOR0.51823.57.63.11.3
OTT0.49538.213.22.91.1
CGY0.51114.85.42.30.6

St. Louis and Pittsburgh both took commanding 3-0 leads on Sunday, and now have chances of advancing of 89% and 92%, respectively. Edmonton also won, and overtook the lead in the West from Anaheim. Much was made of the return of Canadian teams to the playoffs after all 16 teams were US-based last year, but 3 of the 5 are now at the bottom of the list when sorted by Cup likelihood.

2017-04-16

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 16

Washington over Anaheim

Round 1
NSH 2-0 CHI
STL 2-0 MIN
CGY 0-2 ANA
SJS 1-1 EDM
TOR 1-1 WSH
CBJ 0-2 PIT
NYR 1-1 MON
BOS 1-1 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67676.552.840.630.8
PIT0.59276.229.417.610.3
ANA0.55485.242.421.27.8
EDM0.57653.529.416.16.6
MIN0.62129.219.813.06.5
NYR0.57554.631.911.56.1
STL0.53770.835.416.05.3
NSH0.53478.433.414.64.6
MON0.56145.426.58.84.4
CBJ0.62023.810.56.94.4
BOS0.54961.828.38.74.1
SJS0.54746.522.710.83.7
CHI0.56821.611.46.22.4
TOR0.51823.57.43.01.2
OTT0.49538.213.22.91.0
CGY0.51114.85.52.20.6

Toronto tied up the series with Washington, who remains on top. Anaheim won to go up 2-0, so the projection stays the same. We'll still have 16 teams alive for at least another 3 days

2017-04-15

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 15

Washington over Anaheim

Round 1
NSH 1-0 CHI
STL 2-0 MIN
CGY 0-1 ANA
SJS 1-1 EDM
TOR 0-1 WSH
CBJ 0-2 PIT
NYR 1-1 MON
BOS 1-0 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67689.361.647.235.8
PIT0.59276.225.715.38.9
EDM0.57653.530.216.36.3
ANA0.55473.436.518.06.3
MIN0.62129.219.312.76.2
NYR0.57554.631.110.45.5
STL0.53770.834.015.54.9
BOS0.54975.134.59.94.6
CHI0.56840.721.511.74.4
MON0.56145.425.88.04.0
CBJ0.62023.89.46.13.9
SJS0.54746.523.310.93.6
NSH0.53459.325.311.13.4
CGY0.51126.610.03.91.0
OTT0.49524.98.61.70.6
TOR0.51810.73.41.40.5

I've got one of those odd situations due to how I frame my projections. Edmonton is the Western Conference team most likely  to win the cup, but Anaheim is team most likely to win the West. That's because while Anaheim is better positioned to make the finals (up 1-0 instead of tied 1-1), Edmonton is much stronger, and would be more likely to beat whatever team they faced from the East. Of course, with only 1 or 2 games played in each series, the projections are still pretty volatile, so don't place your arbitrage wagers just yet.

2017-04-14

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 14

Washington over Minnesota

Round 1
NSH 1-0 CHI
STL 1-0 MIN
CGY 0-1 ANA
SJS 1-0 EDM
TOR 0-1 WSH
CBJ 0-1 PIT
NYR 1-0 MON
BOS 1-0 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67689.360.846.534.7
MIN0.62151.133.722.310.8
PIT0.59260.220.312.06.9
NYR0.57568.439.013.06.7
CBJ0.62039.815.710.26.4
ANA0.55473.437.117.26.0
EDM0.57639.822.511.44.4
SJS0.54760.230.213.34.4
BOS0.54975.134.59.84.4
CHI0.56840.719.810.94.1
STL0.53748.923.510.93.4
NSH0.53459.323.010.23.1
MON0.56131.618.05.52.7
CGY0.51126.610.23.71.0
OTT0.49524.98.61.70.6
TOR0.51810.73.31.30.5

Washington solidified their position with a game 1 win, and are now 89% likely to win their first round series, and 35% likely to win the Cup. 4 more games are scheduled for tonight, and hopefully the Blues will knock Minnesota out of that top spot in the West.

2017-04-13

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 13

Washington over Minnesota

Round 1
NSH 0-0 CHI
STL 1-0 MIN
CGY 0-0 ANA
SJS 1-0 EDM
TOR 0-0 WSH
CBJ 0-1 PIT
NYR 1-0 MON
BOS 1-0 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67682.556.243.032.0
MIN0.62151.132.821.810.8
PIT0.59260.221.812.97.4
NYR0.57568.439.013.46.9
CBJ0.62039.816.710.96.8
CHI0.56858.828.615.86.1
ANA0.55460.830.814.05.0
EDM0.57639.823.111.64.6
SJS0.54760.231.213.54.6
BOS0.54975.134.510.24.6
STL0.53748.922.610.63.4
MON0.56131.618.05.72.8
NSH0.53441.216.07.22.2
CGY0.51139.215.05.41.4
TOR0.51817.55.32.10.8
OTT0.49524.98.61.80.6

There were 5 games played on the first day of the playoffs, but depite the loss, Minnesota is still favored in the West. They're just over 50/50 to win their first round series, though. Washington was idle, and remains at the top of the East.

2017-04-11

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 11

Washington over Minnesota

Round 1
NSH 0-0 CHI
STL 0-0 MIN
CGY 0-0 ANA
SJS 0-0 EDM
TOR 0-0 WSH
CBJ 0-0 PIT
NYR 0-0 MON
BOS 0-0 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67682.555.542.831.3
MIN0.62169.344.529.414.4
CBJ0.62054.722.915.19.2
EDM0.57657.833.516.16.3
CHI0.56858.826.714.55.6
PIT0.59245.316.49.95.5
NYR0.57551.630.310.45.1
ANA0.55460.830.113.04.6
MON0.56148.428.48.94.2
BOS0.54960.127.58.13.5
SJS0.54742.221.89.03.0
STL0.53730.714.26.52.1
NSH0.53441.214.76.52.0
CGY0.51139.214.65.01.3
OTT0.49539.913.82.80.9
TOR0.51817.55.22.10.8

It's time once again to see if I can outsmart the masses and pick the winner of a major league sport's playoff tournament. I'm sure Washington is a popular pick this year, but seeing Minnesota coming out of the West was a little surprising, given that they are a #2 team. But, they've got the goal differential my system rewards, as well as a relatively easy first round opponent, my St. Louis Blues.

I didn't run this during the full playoffs last year, so I don't know how good I should expect an initial projection to be. I'm using a home ice advantage of 55%, which scales up or down the win percentage chance determined by strengths alone.

Hopefully I got all the abbreviations set to the normal ones used by the teams. I had COL for Columbus until I remembered that's usually Colorado. CAL also didn't look right for Calgary, now properly CGY.

2017-04-09

eBay Wins #253

Today's eBay bargain came in the form of a full pack of 1990 Pacific Legends. I previously only had two cards from this set, which came from another eBay win and a contest win.


1990 Pacific Legends
#26 Dick Groat
#37 Vern Law
#38 Eddie Lopat
#54 Bob Horner
#68 Catfish Hunter
#69 Alvin Dark

1990 Pacific Legends
#85 Bob Feller
#97 Tom Paciorek
#101 Phil Rizzuto
#103 Pete Runnels
In addition to the pictured Bob Horner, Dick Groat and Al Dark both played for the Cardinals. Dick Groat always reminds me of a story my dad would tell about being at the 1964 (I think) World Series. The crowd stormed the field, and when he reconnected with his friend who had run off, the first thing he told my dad was "I touched Dick Groat!" That'd be a good name for a blog, if you're a Pirates/Cardinals/Phillies/Giants fan out there looking for inspiration.


eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought5034
Total Spent$62.71
Per Card1.246 cents
Change0 cents

2017-04-07

Zistle Trade #30

Today's Zistle trade was just a small handful of cards that filled some random needs in my collection. In return, I sent a few Reds, all from 2011.
1989 Topps #224 Tony La Russa
1991 Topps #58 Mel Stottlemyre Jr.
1991 Topps #171 Tony La Russa
2012 Topps Archives #24 Lance Berkman
2012 Topps Update #US44 Jeremy Hermida
2012 Topps Update #US68 Fernando Rodney
Tony La Russa was my favorite non-Cardinals manager as a kid, so I was thrilled when he came to St. Louis. Even when a lot of the local fans turned on him, I was a supporter. Of course, winning 2 World Series helped get him back on everyone's good side, and he left his managerial career on top.

2017-04-05

eBay Wins #252

Moving right through 1990, I've got 2 cards out of a set of thousands, the minor league ProCards set.

1990 ProCards
1067 Jim Bowie
2473 Austin Manahan
Austin never made it out of the minors, and Jim here played 6 games for Oakland in 1994.

I saw just one other card from this set in my collection, but I also saw I had a previous blog post tagged with the set name. As it turns out, that was all the way back at eBay Wins #2, before I probably really thought about making this a regular thing.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought5024
Total Spent$62.61
Per Card1.246 cents
Change0 cents

2017-04-03

Zistle Trade #29, Part II

Today's the rest of the Zistle trade I started on Thursday. It's all 1989 Upper Deck, and all Cardinals.

1989 Upper Deck Main Set #281 Luis Alicea
1989 Upper Deck Main Set #306 Pedro Guerrero
1989 Upper Deck Main Set #348 Tim Jones
1989 Upper Deck Main Set #514 Jose Oquendo
1989 Upper Deck Main Set #531 Greg Mathews
1989 Upper Deck Main Set #602 Tom Pagnozzi
However, we can play the old game of "One of these things is not like the other". The first five all show the Cardinals in BP gear, most likely in spring training. Tom Pagnozzi, on the other hand, is in full game uniform, and almost looks like a painting. I can't really explain it, though. He was on the team in 1987 and 1988, so surely would have been at 1989 Spring Training, since they bring in a whole lot of catchers to work with all the pitchers.




2017-04-01

eBay Wins #251

I've finished off 1989, so it's on to 1990. I'll start with a small stack of Leaf, because I have a few more giant piles this year.

1990 Leaf
#70 Paul O'Neill
#172 Kirk Gibson
#188 Fred Lynn
#248 Jay Bell
#251 Brett Butler
#288 Chili Davis
#293 Mike Moore
#317 Glenallen Hill
No Cardinals?! Boooo. I feel like they faced Glenallen Hill a whole lot when he was on the Cubs, but that was apparently only 3 full years and two partial seasons in two stints.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought5022
Total Spent$62.59
Per Card1.246 cents
Change-0.001 cents