2019-09-30

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 4, Sunday

New England over Dallas

I thought for sure Dallas would no longer be the NFC favorites after losing to New Orleans this week, but here we are. It was a close game, so it didn't have too much of a negative effect on their points-based strength. And who else would challenge them? San Francisco is now the only undefeated NFC team, but they had the week off so they're only 3-0. Chicago is 3-1 but losing their division on a tiebreaker, hurting their overall chances. And Seattle and the LA Rams are splitting the division champ chances with San Francisco, keeping any one of them from dominating the conference.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE4-00.62281.2295.7285.3051.1330.1417.44
DAL3-10.59368.7475.9557.1332.2218.039.60
KC4-00.56171.6485.8769.4636.6018.159.38
SF3-00.56551.2673.3557.3330.5015.978.05
CHI3-10.56436.5958.1141.7121.9911.505.79
BUF3-10.53418.3165.9640.5018.909.084.44
TEN2-20.56431.7249.3433.0716.818.444.39
BAL2-20.55245.8854.8734.0616.788.244.18
GB3-10.53833.2451.8635.3317.568.684.14
LAR3-10.52224.2248.9632.2315.467.393.41
SEA3-10.52723.8245.7029.8314.466.973.25
LAC2-20.53519.9943.8827.3113.096.173.03
CAR2-20.53128.2137.1422.9311.135.392.53
MIN2-20.55013.5830.7319.509.925.042.47
NO3-10.48335.4645.2227.7312.115.272.23
CLE2-20.49638.1946.2925.5711.124.822.18
TB2-20.50930.1937.5021.9610.144.682.10
JAC2-20.50023.9337.5921.099.224.031.83
HOU2-20.50022.0835.6320.819.164.011.82
DET2-1-10.50416.5931.3319.188.864.081.81
PHI2-20.50919.1229.0216.817.883.691.65
IND2-20.48522.2732.6218.077.683.231.42
NYG2-20.48011.8323.7312.995.692.491.05
OAK2-20.4557.2722.6611.534.551.790.74
CIN0-30.4478.4211.245.191.990.770.31
PIT0-30.4377.5110.214.561.700.640.25
ATL1-30.4416.138.404.011.580.620.24
DEN0-40.4501.093.181.480.570.230.09
NYJ0-30.4240.353.911.640.580.220.08
ARI0-3-10.4280.692.301.040.400.150.06
WAS0-40.4130.310.690.280.110.040.01
MIA0-40.3760.131.040.380.120.040.01

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas

2019-09-29

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 5

I've still got Auburn up at #1 after their win over Mississippi State, now #31. Last week's #2, California, lost to #9 Arizona State, and falls all the way to #11, and Boise State fell out of the #3 spot on bye. Ohio State enters playoff position, rising to #2 by beating Nebraska. SMU jumps up one spot to #3, winning against lowly South Florida. The last new playoff team this week is Clemson, up from #6 to #4, and notably still ahead of Alabama in my rankings.

18 undefeated teams remain as just 5 lost this week.

Missouri was on bye this week, but lost 13 spots because of other teams winning.

Akron took over the bottom spot by losing to otherwise-winless UMass, and Vanderbilt also won their first game, so we're down to 3 winless teams.

1Auburn5-0
2Ohio State5-0
3SMU5-0
4Clemson5-0
5Alabama5-0
6Wake Forest5-0
7Florida5-0
8Washington4-1
9Arizona State4-1
10Hawai'i4-1
11California4-1
12Boise State4-0
13Michigan State4-1
14Penn State4-0
15Georgia4-0
16Appalachian State4-0
17UCF4-1
18Oklahoma State4-1
19Virginia4-1
20Utah4-1
21Memphis4-0
22Minnesota4-0
23Wisconsin4-0
24Iowa4-0
25Wyoming4-1
26Oklahoma4-0
27LSU4-0
28Louisiana4-1
29Oregon3-1
30Baylor4-0
31Mississippi State3-2
32West Virginia3-1
33Notre Dame3-1
34Missouri3-1
35Pittsburgh3-2
36Texas3-1
37Florida State3-2
38Utah State3-1
39Colorado3-1
40USC3-2
41Eastern Michigan3-1
42Duke3-1
43TCU3-1
44Kansas State3-1
45Louisiana Tech4-1
46Cincinnati3-1
47Syracuse3-2
48Southern Mississippi3-2
49Western Michigan3-2
50Liberty3-2
51Texas A&M3-2
52Arizona3-1
53Air Force3-1
54Arkansas State3-2
55Michigan3-1
56Nevada3-2
57Florida Atlantic3-2
T-58NC State3-2
T-58Toledo3-1
60Tulane3-1
61Nebraska3-2
62San Diego State3-1
63Coastal Carolina3-2
64Boston College3-2
65Temple3-1
66Indiana3-2
67East Carolina3-2
68Tulsa2-2
69UAB3-1
70Army3-1
71Miami (OH)2-3
72Washington State3-2
73Ole Miss2-3
74North Carolina2-3
75Kent State2-2
76Kentucky2-3
77Texas Tech2-2
78Navy2-1
79Louisville2-2
80BYU2-3
81Texas State2-3
82Miami2-2
83Iowa State2-2
84Kansas2-3
85Maryland2-2
86Virginia Tech2-2
87Western Kentucky2-2
88Marshall2-2
89Georgia State2-2
90New Mexico2-2
91Troy2-2
92Stanford2-3
93Buffalo2-3
94Fresno State2-2
95Houston2-3
96North Texas2-3
97South Carolina2-3
98San Jose State2-2
99Charlotte2-3
100Central Michigan2-3
101Illinois2-2
102UL Monroe2-2
103Arkansas2-3
104Georgia Southern1-3
105UTEP1-3
106UCLA1-4
107Oregon State1-3
108Purdue1-3
109South Florida1-3
110Northwestern1-3
111Northern Illinois1-3
112Ball State1-3
113Middle Tennessee1-3
114Florida International1-3
115Tennessee1-3
116Rutgers1-3
117Old Dominion1-3
118Vanderbilt1-3
119UTSA1-3
120Georgia Tech1-3
121Ohio1-3
122Bowling Green1-3
123UConn1-3
124UNLV1-3
125Colorado State1-4
126South Alabama1-4
127Rice0-5
128UMass1-4
129New Mexico State0-5
130Akron0-5


2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn

2019-09-27

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 4, Thursday

New England over Dallas

Green Bay suffered their first loss of the year, as Philadelphia upset them at home. I was kind of curious which result would be worse for Dallas, having Green Bay reach 4-0 while they're only at 3-0, or their division rival Philadelphia getting within 1 win of them. The answer, I suppose, is that the Philadelphia win helped more than it hurt. Dallas's NFC and Super Bowl chances went up just  a little, by 0.1% and 0.06%, respectively. They're about 5% less likely to win the division and 2.5% less to make the playoffs, but that's offset by weaker average opponents. But we're talking very small numbers here, so in the end, nothing really changed.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE3-00.59359.5788.8471.3940.6022.8612.60
DAL3-00.57874.4581.4163.4334.9118.9710.09
KC3-00.55574.1583.8365.6734.4817.559.01
SF3-00.56545.3971.5254.5229.0615.337.96
BAL2-10.56770.1675.9753.1728.2514.827.78
LAR3-00.55541.4969.5252.0327.0613.987.12
BUF3-00.54439.3478.3655.1227.5813.916.97
MIN2-10.56025.0847.3632.8917.208.934.59
GB3-10.53831.8252.7636.1418.068.954.40
HOU2-10.51332.8851.1232.5515.257.073.33
DET2-0-10.51325.0044.7629.5313.976.573.07
CHI2-10.53318.0937.5024.4812.085.942.89
IND2-10.49833.7749.9430.8613.966.252.85
TEN1-20.53417.3634.5521.3110.385.042.48
NO2-10.48234.9339.6321.969.584.181.82
PHI2-20.50918.9830.7417.878.383.931.82
CAR1-20.51725.4230.1316.957.973.751.77
SEA2-10.49511.0926.9715.947.223.271.47
JAC1-20.49515.9929.5316.297.263.241.47
LAC1-20.49115.3629.4616.327.283.221.45
TB1-20.48322.3025.2212.885.612.451.07
CLE1-20.46116.2223.8311.974.992.080.87
ATL1-20.47017.3520.4910.434.421.870.80
OAK1-20.4427.0017.058.303.281.300.52
NYG1-20.4505.1211.795.892.400.990.40
CIN0-30.4477.2711.215.212.090.850.34
PIT0-30.4376.359.904.471.750.690.27
DEN0-30.4523.497.973.861.560.640.26
ARI0-2-10.4592.036.913.511.460.610.25
WAS0-30.4501.453.291.540.630.260.11
NYJ0-30.4240.474.191.780.670.260.10
MIA0-30.4070.624.241.740.620.230.08

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas

2019-09-24

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 3, Final

New England over Dallas

Chicago beat Washington, and the Bears are a surprising 2-1 after a pretty bad week 1 loss. Of course, the projection at the top stays the same.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE3-00.59359.5888.9371.5240.6722.9012.54
DAL3-00.57779.4283.8964.1134.9818.8710.03
KC3-00.55574.0883.6765.4134.3417.488.91
BAL2-10.56770.1275.9553.1728.2514.827.73
SF3-00.56545.0970.6353.5028.3214.827.69
GB3-00.56045.7069.3552.1327.2714.107.23
BUF3-00.54439.3378.5155.2427.6413.936.94
LAR3-00.55541.6268.7251.2426.4713.566.90
MIN2-10.56020.0046.0030.9716.038.284.25
HOU2-10.51332.8951.1432.5915.277.093.31
IND2-10.49833.7849.9830.9013.986.262.83
DET2-0-10.51320.0242.3827.2412.775.972.79
CHI2-10.53314.2736.2322.9611.225.482.67
TEN1-20.53417.3434.5521.3210.385.052.46
NO2-10.48235.0539.4621.519.304.021.75
CAR1-20.51725.1829.6016.447.663.581.69
JAC1-20.49516.0029.5516.317.273.251.46
LAC1-20.49115.3629.2416.197.213.201.43
SEA2-10.49511.2426.4515.536.993.141.41
TB1-20.48322.3825.1212.655.452.361.03
PHI1-20.49613.0819.7810.694.842.200.99
CLE1-20.46116.2423.8611.994.992.080.87
ATL1-20.47017.3920.2410.174.261.800.76
OAK1-20.4427.0016.908.233.261.290.51
NYG1-20.4505.7612.045.912.400.980.40
CIN0-30.4477.2811.235.222.100.850.34
PIT0-30.4376.369.924.481.750.690.27
DEN0-30.4523.568.033.891.580.640.26
ARI0-2-10.4592.056.673.381.390.580.24
WAS0-30.4501.733.421.580.640.260.11
NYJ0-30.4240.474.241.800.670.260.10
MIA0-30.4070.624.291.750.620.230.08

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas

2019-09-23

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 3, Sunday

New England over Dallas

New England and Dallas both won and maintained their conference leads. New England would be running away with things, except that Buffalo is also 3-0. Combined, they account for almost 99% of the division title chances. Miami played Dallas after facing New England last week, and as a result is now weakest team in the league, and the New York Jets are also 0-3, having lost to New England this week.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE3-00.59359.6088.7271.2540.5222.8112.52
DAL3-00.57777.9783.3464.3835.2819.0810.14
KC3-00.55574.1884.0165.9934.6617.659.02
SF3-00.56544.3571.0953.6128.4514.937.75
BAL2-10.56770.1275.9253.0928.2014.797.73
GB3-00.56048.7571.0253.6228.1714.597.49
LAR3-00.55542.4770.6852.7927.3714.057.15
BUF3-00.54439.3278.1254.9327.4913.856.92
MIN2-10.56022.5549.3933.4317.358.974.61
HOU2-10.51332.8751.0732.5015.237.073.31
DET2-0-10.51322.7245.6829.5013.876.503.03
IND2-10.49833.7849.8830.8013.936.242.83
TEN1-20.53417.3534.4921.2610.365.042.46
NO2-10.48235.7940.6322.359.694.211.84
CAR1-20.51724.6829.4316.437.683.601.70
SEA2-10.49511.1627.3416.007.213.251.46
LAC1-20.49115.3929.8016.547.373.271.46
JAC1-20.49516.0029.4916.257.253.241.46
TB1-20.48322.2425.2412.805.532.411.05
PHI1-20.49612.6120.0410.924.952.261.02
CLE1-20.46116.2423.8311.974.992.080.87
CHI1-10.4795.9817.499.704.211.830.79
ATL1-20.47017.2820.4010.314.341.840.78
OAK1-20.4427.0217.328.443.341.320.53
NYG1-20.4505.4112.135.982.430.990.40
WAS0-20.4764.019.084.642.010.880.38
CIN0-30.4477.2811.215.212.100.850.34
PIT0-30.4376.369.904.471.750.690.27
DEN0-30.4523.417.923.831.550.630.26
ARI0-2-10.4592.027.033.541.460.610.25
NYJ0-30.4240.474.131.760.660.250.10
MIA0-30.4070.624.191.710.610.220.08

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas

2019-09-22

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 4

Auburn won to hold onto #1 in the rankings. Arizona State lost to fall from #2 to #18, and Ohio State won but still dropped 3 places to #5. California rose from #4 to #2, still in my playoff bracket. New to my top 4 this week are Boise State up from #8 to #3, and SMU, up from #20 to #4 with a win over TCU.

We lost 12 more undefeated teams, but still have 23 left.

Missouri is making that opening week upset loss look worse and worse with each win. They're now up to #21, and would probably be in with the 12 4-0 teams if they had won. Although, they are being somewhat propped up by having played Wyoming, who is only one spot behind them at #22.

Also, I haven't been talking much about the teams at the bottom, partially because just like the top, we still have a bunch of teams bunched together, but in this case at 0-4 instead of 4-0. We're down to 5 winless teams though, with UMass bringing up the rear down at #130. However, they'll get a chance to play #129 next week against Akron. It doesn't appear there are any other matchups scheduled for the rest of the year between the 0-for teams.

1Auburn4-0
2California4-0
3Boise State4-0
4SMU4-0
5Ohio State4-0
6Clemson4-0
7Virginia4-0
8Wake Forest4-0
9Georgia4-0
10Florida4-0
11Alabama4-0
12LSU4-0
13West Virginia3-1
14Mississippi State3-1
15Oregon3-1
16Penn State3-0
17Eastern Michigan3-1
18Arizona State3-1
19Hawai'i3-1
20Washington3-1
21Missouri3-1
22Wyoming3-1
23Appalachian State3-0
T-24Texas3-1
T-24Oklahoma State3-1
26Colorado3-1
27Kansas State3-0
28Michigan State3-1
29Wisconsin3-0
30Minnesota3-0
31Utah3-1
32USC3-1
33Iowa3-0
34UCF3-1
35Nebraska3-1
36Memphis3-0
37Boston College3-1
38NC State3-1
39Nevada3-1
40Coastal Carolina3-1
41Oklahoma3-0
42UAB3-0
43Louisiana3-1
44San Diego State3-1
45Tulane3-1
46Indiana3-1
47Louisiana Tech3-1
48Kentucky2-2
49Utah State2-1
50Baylor3-0
51Tulsa2-2
52Army3-1
53Kansas2-2
T-54Notre Dame2-1
T-54Ole Miss2-2
56Southern Mississippi2-2
57Arizona2-1
58Syracuse2-2
59TCU2-1
60Pittsburgh2-2
61BYU2-2
62Kent State2-2
63Texas Tech2-1
64Michigan2-1
65North Carolina2-2
66North Texas2-2
67Duke2-1
68Air Force2-1
69Washington State3-1
70Florida State2-2
71Texas A&M2-2
72Cincinnati2-1
73Liberty2-2
74Iowa State2-1
75Navy2-0
76Miami2-2
77Western Michigan2-2
78Virginia Tech2-1
79Marshall2-1
80Maryland2-1
81Toledo2-1
82Arkansas State2-2
83Buffalo2-2
84Troy2-1
85Temple2-1
86Louisville2-2
87San Jose State2-1
88New Mexico2-1
89East Carolina2-2
90Florida Atlantic2-2
91Illinois2-2
92Arkansas2-2
93Central Michigan2-2
94Charlotte2-2
95Georgia State2-2
96Northern Illinois1-2
97Georgia Southern1-2
98Miami (OH)1-3
99UTEP1-2
100Fresno State1-2
101UCLA1-3
102Texas State1-3
103Stanford1-3
104Oregon State1-2
105Old Dominion1-2
106South Florida1-2
107South Alabama1-3
108Georgia Tech1-2
109Western Kentucky1-2
110Rutgers1-2
111Purdue1-2
112Middle Tennessee1-2
113South Carolina1-3
114Houston1-3
115Bowling Green1-3
116Northwestern1-2
117UTSA1-3
118Ball State1-3
119UL Monroe1-2
120Tennessee1-3
121UConn1-2
122Ohio1-3
123Colorado State1-3
124UNLV1-2
125Florida International1-3
126Rice0-4
127Vanderbilt0-3
128New Mexico State0-4
129Akron0-4
130UMass0-4


2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn

2019-09-20

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 3, Thursday

New England over Dallas

This year, if you count Thanksgiving, every team plays a Thursday game except Cincinnati and Miami, and leaving out Miami was either a wise or fortunate decision on the part of the NFL (side note, Dallas and Chicago play against each other on a Thursday and play on Thanksgiving, but not against each other). Ever since the NFL moved to having a Thursday game nearly every week, except non-turkey holidays and week 17, it seems Tennessee and Jacksonville have faced off almost every year. As it turns out, it's been 5 of the last 6. Not every matchup is a division rival, so I'm not sure why these two seem to go together so much. Either way, it's usually seen as whatever the opposite of a marquee game is. Gardner Minshew got his chance to be seen being successful on national TV, but the 20-7 win was a little low scoring in a league averaging over 43 points a game this year.

No huge changes in the grid since the AFC South wasn't well-represented near the top. Tennessee is no longer the favorite to win that division, with Indianapolis and Houston both now surpassing them, but no one's really looking at that this early.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE2-00.56252.7876.3858.7332.0617.359.41
BAL2-00.55865.9976.3858.9231.8717.009.15
DAL2-00.54263.0371.8153.1428.1514.787.58
KC2-00.54655.0970.6452.7327.7414.397.56
SF2-00.55037.3863.1847.3925.4813.647.10
GB2-00.53946.5263.7447.6625.0613.066.65
BUF2-00.53340.9866.4847.2824.0512.226.27
LAR2-00.53733.0459.8743.6722.7811.866.02
SEA2-00.50622.7645.8230.7314.967.283.47
DET1-0-10.50724.5640.8627.3513.386.523.11
MIN1-10.52518.4636.4724.1312.236.193.07
TEN1-20.53322.5536.2923.0811.655.873.01
LAC1-10.50723.7241.5826.3512.626.022.93
HOU1-10.49827.1438.4623.7511.145.202.48
IND1-10.49230.1140.7124.6911.405.252.48
PHI1-10.50225.3935.7322.0610.675.152.43
TB1-10.48232.3637.6621.719.964.562.07
JAC1-20.49520.2030.3517.358.053.731.77
ATL1-10.47527.6132.8918.778.473.831.71
CLE1-10.47818.9531.3518.048.123.661.67
OAK1-10.47714.7729.9817.207.703.441.58
NO1-10.47126.2831.1217.477.823.491.54
CHI1-10.47910.4622.2313.276.112.811.27
ARI0-1-10.4886.8219.3111.475.372.521.16
CAR0-20.48213.7517.439.454.341.990.90
DEN0-20.4756.4113.817.563.361.500.68
CIN0-20.4608.1015.708.343.591.550.68
WAS0-20.4766.0211.686.412.931.340.60
PIT0-20.4506.9612.846.542.751.170.50
NYG0-20.4515.5610.195.332.300.990.42
NYJ0-20.4503.349.905.012.110.890.39
MIA0-20.4382.909.164.431.800.740.31

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas

2019-09-17

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 2, Final

New England over Dallas

Cleveland beat the New York Jets, and as expected that lowered Baltimore's divisional chances a little, and raised New England's a little, and that was enough to let New England supplant Baltimore atop the AFC.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE2-00.56252.8576.1358.1931.6417.059.26
BAL2-00.55865.9576.2358.3431.4216.729.00
DAL2-00.54263.0871.8653.2028.1914.797.56
KC2-00.54654.7770.1551.8527.2014.077.39
SF2-00.55037.4163.2247.4125.5213.657.08
GB2-00.53946.5363.7147.6125.0413.046.62
BUF2-00.53440.8466.1846.7423.6911.996.15
LAR2-00.53733.0559.8843.6522.7911.876.01
TEN1-10.54637.2553.2236.5218.959.785.14
SEA2-00.50622.7345.7830.7114.927.263.45
DET1-0-10.50724.5540.8127.3313.376.523.10
MIN1-10.52518.4936.4624.1212.226.183.05
LAC1-10.50723.9041.6426.1812.485.922.89
IND1-10.49228.3040.5924.4511.265.172.44
PHI1-10.50225.3835.7222.0410.675.152.42
HOU1-10.49825.0437.5823.0210.755.012.39
TB1-10.48232.3437.7021.759.964.572.06
ATL1-10.47527.5932.9318.798.493.831.70
CLE1-10.47818.9031.1817.737.943.561.63
OAK1-10.47714.8829.9917.077.603.391.55
NO1-10.47126.3031.1817.517.833.491.53
CHI1-10.47910.4422.1513.216.072.801.26
ARI0-1-10.4886.8019.2911.465.372.531.16
CAR0-20.48213.7717.499.494.342.000.90
JAC0-20.4729.4115.828.333.641.600.72
CIN0-20.4608.2115.788.313.561.530.67
DEN0-20.4756.4513.807.493.321.480.67
WAS0-20.4765.9911.656.382.921.340.60
PIT0-20.4506.9412.736.432.691.130.49
NYG0-20.4515.5510.185.332.300.990.42
NYJ0-20.4503.409.914.982.090.880.38
MIA0-20.4382.909.084.361.770.720.30

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas

2019-09-16

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Baltimore over Dallas

New England is by far the strongest team, but Baltimore's weaker division is keeping them just a little ahead in chances to win the AFC. Monday's game between division rivals of each team (Cleveland for Baltimore and New York Jets for New England) will certainly have an effect.

The team New England dominated 43-0, Miami, is now the worst in the league with the worst chances of winning the Super Bowl, but there are 8 teams below the 1% mark.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL2-00.55869.4777.3558.9131.6816.859.07
NE2-00.56249.1273.6456.0230.4316.408.89
DAL2-00.54263.0771.5752.7527.9514.677.50
KC2-00.54654.9869.9951.8927.1814.057.39
SF2-00.55037.4163.3947.5625.5813.707.12
GB2-00.53946.5763.8347.7725.1313.096.65
BUF2-00.53438.9964.7545.7823.2011.746.03
LAR2-00.53733.0560.0643.8222.8611.906.02
TEN1-10.54637.3852.8836.3818.879.725.11
SEA2-00.50622.7445.9930.8515.017.303.47
DET1-0-10.50724.5540.9027.4213.426.533.11
MIN1-10.52518.4636.5424.1912.276.213.07
LAC1-10.50723.9941.3526.1112.455.922.88
IND1-10.49228.3640.3324.3711.215.142.42
PHI1-10.50225.3835.3521.7410.515.082.39
HOU1-10.49825.1237.3722.9610.735.002.38
TB1-10.48232.3737.7321.789.994.572.07
ATL1-10.47527.6032.9618.848.503.831.70
NYJ0-10.4979.3625.4614.826.903.231.54
NO1-10.47126.2831.1717.527.833.501.54
OAK1-10.47714.5028.9916.527.363.271.50
CHI1-10.47910.4222.2113.266.102.801.25
ARI0-1-10.4886.8019.4411.555.402.541.16
CLE0-10.47114.0122.0011.995.282.331.05
CAR0-20.48213.7517.479.494.351.990.90
JAC0-20.4719.1515.288.063.531.550.70
CIN0-20.4608.9415.888.343.581.540.68
DEN0-20.4756.5213.667.453.301.460.67
WAS0-20.4766.0011.436.252.861.310.58
PIT0-20.4507.5812.846.462.711.140.49
NYG0-20.4515.549.985.202.240.970.41
MIA0-20.4382.538.223.951.600.650.27

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay

2019-09-15

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 3

I should really implement something showing me how far each team rose and fell each week. That'd be fun early in the season. Texas Tech lost to fall from #1 all the way to #38, while Auburn rose to #1 from #9. LSU and SMU both fell 17 spots despite wins this week, from #2 and #3 to #19 and #20, because those wins were against 0-3 teams. The rankings are starting to get closer to the real world polls, though. I have to go all the way down to #23 San Diego State to find a team that didn't get at least one vote in the AP or Coaches top 25.

The number of undefeated teams is down to 35 this week.

Missouri took on Southeast Missouri State for an easy 50-0 win to pad their total, and have risen up to #30 for their efforts. They were the best 1-1 team last week, but are only the 5th best 2-1 team now.

1Auburn3-0
2Arizona State3-0
3Ohio State3-0
4California3-0
5Utah3-0
6Oklahoma State3-0
7Clemson3-0
8Boise State3-0
9Kansas State3-0
10Virginia3-0
11Memphis3-0
12Florida3-0
13Iowa3-0
14Wake Forest3-0
15UCF3-0
16Wyoming3-0
17Minnesota3-0
18Alabama3-0
19LSU3-0
20SMU3-0
21Penn State3-0
22Georgia3-0
23San Diego State3-0
24Oklahoma3-0
25Washington State3-0
26West Virginia2-1
27Oregon2-1
28Eastern Michigan2-1
29Mississippi State2-1
30Missouri2-1
31Arizona2-1
32Kentucky2-1
33Michigan State2-1
34Western Michigan2-1
35Ole Miss2-1
36Notre Dame2-0
37Hawai'i2-1
38Texas Tech2-1
39TCU2-0
40Duke2-1
41BYU2-1
42Boston College2-1
43Kansas2-1
44Michigan2-0
45Coastal Carolina2-1
46Wisconsin2-0
47Washington2-1
48Colorado2-1
49Marshall2-1
50Nebraska2-1
51Air Force2-0
52Southern Mississippi2-1
53Appalachian State2-0
54North Carolina2-1
55Temple2-0
56Nevada2-1
57NC State2-1
58Navy2-0
59Texas A&M2-1
60Texas2-1
61Cincinnati2-1
62Virginia Tech2-1
63Georgia State2-1
64USC2-1
65Louisville2-1
66Arkansas2-1
67Maryland2-1
68UAB2-0
69Army2-1
70Illinois2-1
71Tulane2-1
72Baylor2-0
73Louisiana Tech2-1
74Central Michigan2-1
75Indiana2-1
76Louisiana2-1
77Charlotte2-1
78Kent State1-2
79Miami (OH)1-2
80Northern Illinois1-2
81Utah State1-1
82UTEP1-1
83Georgia Southern1-2
84Iowa State1-1
85Old Dominion1-1
86Miami1-2
87Florida State1-2
88North Texas1-2
89Florida Atlantic1-2
90Toledo1-1
91Tulsa1-2
92Pittsburgh1-2
93Stanford1-2
94Troy1-1
95New Mexico1-1
96Arkansas State1-2
97Georgia Tech1-2
98Oregon State1-2
99Houston1-2
100South Alabama1-2
101South Florida1-2
102Middle Tennessee1-2
T-103Western Kentucky1-2
T-103Syracuse1-2
105Tennessee1-2
106East Carolina1-2
107Rutgers1-1
108Purdue1-2
109Northwestern1-1
T-110UTSA1-2
T-110South Carolina1-2
112Bowling Green1-2
113UConn1-1
114Colorado State1-2
115UL Monroe1-1
116San Jose State1-1
117Ball State1-2
118Ohio1-2
119Liberty1-2
120Florida International1-2
121UNLV1-2
122Buffalo1-2
123New Mexico State0-3
124Fresno State0-2
125Texas State0-3
126UCLA0-3
127Rice0-3
128Vanderbilt0-2
129Akron0-3
130UMass0-3


2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech

2019-09-13

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 2, Thursday

Baltimore over Green Bay

This is where I usually rant about how I hate this particular point in the season, because there are only 2 teams that have played 2 games, and often it means there's a mediocre 2-0 that looks way better than they should. This year, the result of the Thursday game put Tampa at 1-1 and squarely in the middle of the pack, with Carolina down to 0-2, yet still not worse than Chicago. Overall, the projection stays the same.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL1-00.53149.7760.9744.1223.0812.056.32
TEN1-00.53047.2560.0143.5622.7611.846.18
NE1-00.53141.5257.8642.0122.0511.526.01
GB1-00.53036.9053.2238.1420.0310.505.44
DAL1-00.52540.5554.2738.4219.9610.335.30
MIN1-00.52735.0552.1637.1719.3810.115.22
SF1-00.52331.0650.4835.8818.529.554.89
OAK1-00.51731.4050.5235.0717.839.034.59
KC1-00.51829.6549.1534.1117.388.844.51
LAC1-00.51029.2848.6633.3816.748.374.21
NO1-00.50343.2551.7734.7217.168.454.16
PHI1-00.50835.0348.8833.3216.708.354.13
BUF1-00.50332.6448.8133.1016.318.033.98
LAR1-00.50525.9744.7130.5415.207.553.72
SEA1-00.50224.8642.6328.8714.267.053.45
ARI0-0-10.50018.1133.8922.1010.895.352.62
DET0-0-10.50019.6032.9621.3210.505.172.53
CIN0-10.49820.5130.7319.149.324.532.22
TB1-10.48227.4235.3821.2510.004.702.21
HOU0-10.49718.4828.9118.008.764.252.08
NYJ0-10.49714.3226.4916.377.943.861.88
IND0-10.49018.1627.5916.748.013.831.85
WAS0-10.49213.4323.1914.126.843.331.60
JAC0-10.48216.1124.7514.726.953.281.55
ATL0-10.47317.7123.5113.546.272.901.34
DEN0-10.4839.6821.0612.565.922.791.32
CLE0-10.47015.1322.2812.815.852.691.24
PIT0-10.46914.6021.9612.585.742.631.21
NYG0-10.47510.9919.5111.465.352.501.16
MIA0-10.46911.5220.2511.735.362.451.13
CAR0-20.48211.6316.509.294.372.060.97
CHI0-10.4708.4516.949.864.552.100.96

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay

2019-09-10

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 1

Baltimore over Green Bay


What's this? Here's a quick rundown originally taken from 2014's introductory post.
Each year I project the Super Bowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.
In week 1, the top teams are the ones with the biggest point differential, which could simply be a function of playing one very bad team. New England won 33-3. They might be the strongest team, or Pittsburgh might be the weakest team. Or both could be true. Pittsburgh avoids being lowest on the list because of a currently weak division, 1-3 in aggregate. Also, I only show 3 decimal places here, but with a few more New England has the higher strength by just a little bit over Baltimore, who won 59-10, and is the AFC favorite for now, just like in week 1 last year. Also like week 1 last year, we have a tie. I really don't like ties that much, because some of the other hastily coded numbers I output for my own use assume a whole number of wins and losses summing to 16. But, Arizona and Detroit have uglied the charts just like Cleveland and Pittsburgh last year.

Also, because I know you're going through my post history, you'll see that the week 1 leader always has a .530 or .531. Why is that? New England, to 5 decimal places, is .53121. The highest possible in my system after one week is .53125, which is 1/16 of the way from .500 to a perfect 1.000, and is achievable only by a shutout, but by any score by the winning team. That's because the strengths are regressed back to .500 a lot at the beginning of the year, so that something like a 3-0 win doesn't result in a team that appears completely dominant.

Anyway, things are mostly even as usual, with a few outliers. Chicago is the rare team that is below 1% likely to win after just the first week. It's not unprecedented, but it doesn't happen all that often. Buffalo 2018 and New York Giants 2017 were both listed at 0.97%, and they wound up 6-10 and 3-13, respectively. Don't hold out much hope for Chicago, is what I'm saying.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL1-00.53149.8161.0244.1423.1312.086.31
TEN1-00.53047.2259.8943.4522.7011.826.14
NE1-00.53141.5657.9042.0522.0711.526.02
GB1-00.53036.7253.0137.9219.8910.435.40
DAL1-00.52540.6154.2938.4519.9510.345.30
MIN1-00.52735.0752.1937.1919.4010.105.22
SF1-00.52330.9350.2635.6618.459.504.87
OAK1-00.51731.3750.5335.0817.849.044.61
KC1-00.51829.7149.2234.1717.428.874.51
LAC1-00.51029.2648.6833.4316.728.364.19
PHI1-00.50835.0948.9433.3516.688.344.14
NO1-00.50342.5951.2034.3316.928.334.10
BUF1-00.50332.5948.7433.0716.278.003.96
LAR1-00.50526.2044.9030.6915.277.573.73
SEA1-00.50224.7742.4328.6814.177.003.44
ARI0-0-10.50018.1033.7221.9810.805.302.59
DET0-0-10.50019.7333.1121.3810.525.192.53
CIN0-10.49820.4530.7319.139.304.522.20
HOU0-10.49718.4828.8317.978.724.252.07
CAR0-10.49521.7328.7717.448.464.101.99
NYJ0-10.49714.3226.4616.357.963.871.90
IND0-10.49018.1927.5616.718.003.831.85
WAS0-10.49213.3223.0514.036.783.281.58
JAC0-10.48216.1124.6914.656.893.251.55
TB0-10.47718.3824.6314.316.683.111.45
DEN0-10.4839.6621.0912.575.932.801.33
ATL0-10.47317.3123.0913.306.162.841.32
CLE0-10.47015.1322.3212.845.892.701.25
PIT0-10.46914.6122.0012.625.772.641.22
NYG0-10.47510.9919.4911.415.312.471.15
MIA0-10.46911.5320.3211.765.392.471.13
CHI0-10.4708.4916.949.874.562.100.97

2019-09-09

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 2

I'm a day late due to a Sunday game in Division II. In the future I'll just fold those games into the next week's rankings. But I didn't want to leave out the powerhouses of Florida Tech and Savannah State.

After just 2 weeks, we've got enough separation between each team that there are only a handful of ties in the 130-team field. Texas Tech is #1, but they have a very tenuous hold on the spot. The top 15 teams each have cumulative opponent records of 2-2, but Texas Tech's opponents have beaten slightly higher ranked teams. The wins and losses of the top teams' FCS opponents, and opponents' opponents, etc., can easily flip the ordering around early in the season, so Texas Tech has to be happy that Montana State beat Southeast Missouri State, who beat Southern Illinois, who beat UMass.

There are 52 undefeated teams remaining, mostly 2-0 but 8 teams are taking an early bye week sitting at 1-0.

I didn't mention Missouri last week, but I'm still watching them. They lost pretty unexpectedly to Wyoming to just destroy any illusions their fans had of a national title chance, but came back strong against West Virginia this week. I've got them at #46, the best 1-1 team around!

1Texas Tech2-0
2LSU2-0
3SMU2-0
4Michigan State2-0
5Boise State2-0
6Boston College2-0
7Utah2-0
8Arizona State2-0
9Auburn2-0
10Michigan2-0
11Mississippi State2-0
12California2-0
13Colorado2-0
14Virginia2-0
15Iowa2-0
16Kentucky2-0
17Alabama2-0
18Hawai'i2-0
19Oklahoma2-0
20Clemson2-0
21Penn State2-0
22Appalachian State2-0
23Wyoming2-0
24Memphis2-0
25Kansas State2-0
26Baylor2-0
27Wake Forest2-0
T-28Minnesota2-0
T-28USC2-0
30Oklahoma State2-0
31UAB2-0
32Ohio State2-0
33Illinois2-0
34Florida2-0
35Maryland2-0
36NC State2-0
37North Carolina2-0
38UCF2-0
39Wisconsin2-0
40San Diego State2-0
41Georgia2-0
42Georgia State2-0
43Indiana2-0
44Washington State2-0
45TCU1-0
46Missouri1-1
47Notre Dame1-0
48Georgia Southern1-1
49Virginia Tech1-1
50Northern Illinois1-1
51Oregon1-1
52Duke1-1
53Eastern Michigan1-1
54Ole Miss1-1
T-55Navy1-0
T-55New Mexico1-0
T-55Troy1-0
58UTEP1-1
59North Texas1-1
60Marshall1-1
61West Virginia1-1
62Kent State1-1
63Tulsa1-1
64Iowa State1-0
65Southern Mississippi1-1
66Western Michigan1-1
67Texas1-1
T-68Washington1-1
T-68Arkansas State1-1
70Middle Tennessee1-1
71Florida State1-1
72Pittsburgh1-1
73Arizona1-1
74Miami (OH)1-1
75Nebraska1-1
76Houston1-1
77UTSA1-1
78Utah State1-1
79Central Michigan1-1
80Louisville1-1
81Old Dominion1-1
T-82Nevada1-1
T-82Arkansas1-1
84Coastal Carolina1-1
85Army1-1
86Air Force1-0
87Bowling Green1-1
88Texas A&M1-1
89BYU1-1
90Stanford1-1
91Georgia Tech1-1
92Tulane1-1
93Temple1-0
94Louisiana1-1
95Colorado State1-1
96Cincinnati1-1
97Buffalo1-1
98Western Kentucky1-1
99Rutgers1-1
100Charlotte1-1
101UConn1-1
102Ball State1-1
103Syracuse1-1
104East Carolina1-1
105South Carolina1-1
106San Jose State1-1
107Ohio1-1
108South Alabama1-1
T-109UNLV1-1
T-109Louisiana Tech1-1
111UL Monroe1-1
112Purdue1-1
113Kansas1-1
114Toledo0-1
115Oregon State0-2
116Fresno State0-2
T-117Akron0-2
T-117New Mexico State0-2
119Florida Atlantic0-2
120Miami0-2
121Northwestern0-1
122Rice0-2
123Texas State0-2
124South Florida0-2
125Tennessee0-2
126UCLA0-2
127Vanderbilt0-2
128Florida International0-2
129Liberty0-2
130UMass0-2


2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie

2019-09-03

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

College football is back! Week 1 is done, and here's my lazy copy-and-paste job of what I'm doing here.

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers". As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated. The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that. I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength. I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop. So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001. I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings. It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team. (i.e., an NAIA team will be listed when they play against a Div III team, but the rest of their games won't be listed, resulting in a lot of 0-1 teams mixed into my system). I then filter the final results to only the FBS schools.

In the past, in week 1, there were only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week! However, since 2016 we seem to be in the era of the pre-Week-1 game, which means a 2-0, 0-2, and/or 1-1 team might be in the mix. Also, some teams may not play in Week 1, and you don't get a ranking until you play, thus the bottom of the chart may not be the full number of teams in FBS.

I listed some caveats at the end there, but despite 4 teams playing over a week ago, all the FBS teams have played exactly 1 game after week 1. Last year had 129 teams, with Liberty in the midst of transitioning to full eligibility. They are there now, and we've got 130 teams. I think some rules may have changed this year, though I haven't been able to find confirmation, because the only Division II or III games were ones against FCS teams, which was only 8 total games, so they are mostly all starting next week.

Onto the fairly pointless rankings of Week 1. I want to point out that the ordering here is not significant; Florida is exactly tied with all 82 other #1 teams. Air Force is lowest ranked 1-0 team at #84 because they beat Samford, one of the two teams that has actually played 2 games, and happens to be 0-2.


1Florida1-0
1Hawai'i1-0
1Clemson1-0
1Texas A&M1-0
1Utah1-0
1UCF1-0
1Cincinnati1-0
1UConn1-0
1Bowling Green1-0
1Buffalo1-0
1Charlotte1-0
1Tulane1-0
1UAB1-0
1Central Michigan1-0
1Minnesota1-0
1Arizona State1-0
1San Jose State1-0
1Michigan State1-0
1Wisconsin1-0
1Army1-0
1Rutgers1-0
1Wake Forest1-0
1Nevada1-0
1Colorado1-0
1Oklahoma State1-0
1Alabama1-0
1Georgia1-0
1Ohio State1-0
1LSU1-0
1Michigan1-0
1Texas1-0
1Auburn1-0
1Washington1-0
1Penn State1-0
1Iowa1-0
1Iowa State1-0
1Syracuse1-0
1Washington State1-0
1Nebraska1-0
1Stanford1-0
1Illinois1-0
1Indiana1-0
1Boise State1-0
1NC State1-0
1Kansas1-0
1Kentucky1-0
1Memphis1-0
1Mississippi State1-0
1Maryland1-0
1West Virginia1-0
1Ohio1-0
1Temple1-0
1Navy1-0
1Eastern Michigan1-0
1North Carolina1-0
1Georgia State1-0
1Appalachian State1-0
1Arkansas1-0
1Texas Tech1-0
1Boston College1-0
1New Mexico1-0
1UTSA1-0
1Troy1-0
1California1-0
1Marshall1-0
1Old Dominion1-0
1Southern Mississippi1-0
1Northern Illinois1-0
1Western Michigan1-0
1SMU1-0
1Kansas State1-0
1Baylor1-0
1Wyoming1-0
1Virginia1-0
1North Texas1-0
1UTEP1-0
1TCU1-0
1UL Monroe1-0
1San Diego State1-0
1UNLV1-0
1USC1-0
1Oklahoma1-0
1Notre Dame1-0
84Air Force1-0
85Miami0-1
85Arizona0-1
85Georgia Tech0-1
85Texas State0-1
85BYU0-1
85UCLA0-1
85Western Kentucky0-1
85Florida International0-1
85Kent State0-1
85Tulsa0-1
85South Florida0-1
85Rice0-1
85UMass0-1
85Utah State0-1
85Purdue0-1
85Colorado State0-1
85Oregon State0-1
85Duke0-1
85Vanderbilt0-1
85Florida Atlantic0-1
85Georgia Southern0-1
85Middle Tennessee0-1
85Louisiana Tech0-1
85Oregon0-1
85Miami (OH)0-1
85Liberty0-1
85New Mexico State0-1
85South Alabama0-1
85Northwestern0-1
85Akron0-1
85Ball State0-1
85Florida State0-1
85East Carolina0-1
85Toledo0-1
85Ole Miss0-1
85Louisiana0-1
85Coastal Carolina0-1
85South Carolina0-1
85Tennessee0-1
85Virginia Tech0-1
85Arkansas State0-1
85Missouri0-1
85Pittsburgh0-1
85Fresno State0-1
85Houston0-1
85Louisville0-1