2013-10-31

2013 World Series Projections Wrapup

I graphed out my projections over the last month. The postseason was fairly unsurprising, with the NL and AL favorites making the World Series, and the very slight underdog Red Sox winning it. I think this graph is easier to read than a line graph. I've listed the teams weakest to strongest top to bottom, and the size of their bar each day indicates their share of World Series chances.



Worst Position for Boston: 18.27% on October 13, down 0-1 in the ALCS
Best Position for the Cardinals: 69.46% on October 27, up 2-1 in the World Series after the (no longer) infamous obstruction call.
Best Position for an LCS loser: 31.21% for Detroit, on October 13, up 1-0 in the ALCS
Best Position for an LDS loser: 18.57% for Oakland, on October 8, up 2-1 in the ALDS
Best Position for a Wildcard loser: 4.84% for Cincinnati, October 1, before playing Pittsburgh

Obviously, I wanted the Cardinals to wind up as champions, but I enjoyed this postseason. The games were mostly good, and the meaningful nature of playoff baseball means I don't feel bad about watching 2, 3, or 4 games in a day. Congrats to the Red Sox, and for everyone else, pitchers and catchers report in under 4 months.

2013-10-29

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 8, Final

Kansas City over Seattle

By the numbers, Seattle should have rolled over the Rams easily last night, but somehow the Rams kept it close. On the final play, mere feet from the endzone, a TD pass would have won it for the Rams. And, had a 50-yard field goal not missed wide right a few minutes before, they'd have been in position for a chip shot to win it. But, close doesn't count in the NFL, until you get way down the tiebreaker list, and the Rams are now under the 1% mark for playoff chances, and under 3 in 10,000 to win the NFC West.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC8-00.69270.23599.55487.83653.51532.03818.331
SEA7-10.65877.39098.03586.31048.40626.57513.986
CAR4-30.65225.77857.59238.27720.67110.9715.705
DEN7-10.64828.59895.52166.30434.35818.4189.644
NO6-10.63773.97490.37473.35539.68720.35410.259
SF6-20.63722.34184.21356.24528.84514.9897.541
CIN6-20.61089.64493.29071.72936.15616.7828.105
IND5-20.60788.01691.53864.31331.83814.7737.093
GB5-20.59161.12076.26952.23024.12311.0955.057
NE6-20.57989.67292.37257.18126.04411.3335.116
DAL4-40.57785.22685.53942.19118.8308.4633.740
SD4-30.5501.12631.01114.8425.8362.4531.037
DET5-30.53627.31455.59730.21412.1244.9171.976
CHI4-30.51111.55723.13810.9774.1011.5780.597
TEN3-40.49810.85228.02912.1704.3231.5840.590
BAL3-40.4856.84616.8267.1602.4610.8740.315
MIA3-40.4694.61714.0625.7311.8650.6370.221
ARI4-40.4690.24310.6794.1671.3900.4870.166
ATL2-50.4660.2481.2690.5090.1740.0610.021
BUF3-50.4482.8827.7582.7340.8330.2710.089
OAK3-40.4440.0419.3433.3400.9780.3160.102
PIT2-50.4360.9682.9251.0450.3070.0970.031
PHI3-50.4339.39010.8133.5671.0910.3440.106
STL3-50.4330.0270.7670.2690.0810.0260.008
CLE3-50.4302.5427.6932.7560.8030.2480.077
WAS2-50.4134.3004.5551.3980.4070.1220.036
MIN1-60.4020.0080.0410.0130.0040.0010.000
NYJ4-40.3682.8307.7292.1790.5200.1340.035
HOU2-50.3681.1302.3450.6800.1650.0430.011
TB0-70.3630.0000.0020.0010.0000.0000.000
NYG2-60.3511.0831.1160.2780.0660.0160.004
JAC0-80.2670.0030.0030.0010.0000.0000.000

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]

2013 World Series Projection, October 29

Boston over St. Louis

World Series
STL 2-3 BOS

League Championship Series
DET 2-4 BOS
LAD 2-4 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

TeamStrengthWin
STL0.622825.48
BOS0.618474.52

Now, Boston is definitely in the driver's seat. Betting odds for the Cardinals would be about 4:1, and probably even longer since both games are now on the road. But, maybe Michael Wacha has one more amazing performance in him for Wednesday night.

2013-10-28

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 8, Sunday

Kansas City over Seattle

The top and bottom of the league stay the same, although Seattle will probably have to win Monday to avoid giving up the NFC position to New Orleans. One quirk of Kansas City and Denver's dominance is that San Diego is sitting in the top half of the league at 4-3, but with only a 1.1% chance of winning the division. Other than Denver, they've got one of the largest gaps between their Division and overall playoff (that's Division + Wildcard) odds.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC8-00.69270.23899.55687.83853.52232.04618.546
CAR4-30.65225.68057.95138.73121.13311.4125.933
DEN7-10.64828.59795.54566.32334.37118.4289.778
SEA6-10.63968.88695.06279.51442.91222.68711.468
NO6-10.63774.06690.51173.97240.22721.08010.625
SF6-20.63730.29484.37458.85430.97316.2758.188
CIN6-20.61089.65493.30771.80036.19916.7988.226
IND5-20.60788.01391.50064.18831.77114.7397.176
GB5-20.59161.17476.51853.00824.84811.6205.295
NE6-20.57989.68592.38957.24626.06811.3425.197
DAL4-40.57785.25185.56542.89119.4588.8703.920
SD4-30.5501.12431.06814.8685.8452.4561.053
DET5-30.53627.34955.98830.88012.6215.1982.090
CHI4-30.51111.46823.13311.1364.2511.6610.627
TEN3-40.49810.83827.85812.0814.2901.5710.595
BAL3-40.4856.84216.8417.1682.4630.8750.321
MIA3-40.4694.61414.0735.7381.8650.6370.225
ARI4-40.4690.48410.7964.2781.4710.5210.177
ATL2-50.4660.2531.3320.5370.1880.0670.023
BUF3-50.4482.8757.7662.7390.8330.2710.090
STL3-40.4470.3362.2470.8680.2870.0970.031
OAK3-40.4440.0419.3583.3420.9780.3160.104
PIT2-50.4350.9662.9321.0470.3070.0960.031
PHI3-50.4339.36010.7923.6141.1340.3640.112
CLE3-50.4302.5387.6962.7570.8030.2480.079
WAS2-50.4134.2894.5461.4140.4220.1280.037
MIN1-60.4020.0090.0450.0150.0040.0010.000
NYJ4-40.3682.8267.7482.1820.5200.1340.036
HOU2-50.3681.1462.3590.6830.1650.0430.011
TB0-70.3630.0000.0030.0010.0000.0000.000
NYG2-60.3511.1011.1370.2870.0700.0180.004
JAC0-80.2670.0030.0030.0010.0000.0000.000

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]

2013 World Series Projection, October 28

St. Louis over Boston

World Series
STL 2-2 BOS

League Championship Series
DET 2-4 BOS
LAD 2-4 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

TeamStrengthWin
STL0.622850.71
BOS0.618449.29

This series is now as even as it's been, and the only way it can only be closer is if there's a game 7. Next year I'll have to integrate home field advantage into the projections, because it really doesn't feel that even right now, since it's effectively a 3-game series with Boston hosting up to 2 games. However, one quote from David Ortiz's postgame interview made me feel less nervous. When asked who was now in the driver's seat, he said "Nobody...Even Steven".

2013-10-27

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 9

In computer rankings, there's no such thing as a bad loss or a good/tough loss, because the BCS computers can't take scores or margin of victory or anything other than the win/loss result of each game into account. Still, I'd rank Missouri's loss to South Carolina particularly bad. That's not because it was a blowout, but rather because Mizzou was up by 17 points at the start of the 4th Quarter, and 10 points when they got the ball back with 12 minutes to go, and still up by 7 points when they got the ball with 5 minutes to go. Unfortunately for them, voters make up 2/3 of the BCS, and will likely punish them for this loss worse than the computers will.

The new #1 is 8-0 Oregon, who - I don't think - has been #1 yet this year. Miami of Ohio is hanging on to the bottom slot at 0-8.

1Oregon8-0
2Alabama8-0
3Ohio State8-0
4Florida State7-0
5Stanford7-1
6Missouri7-1
7Northern Illinois8-0
8Clemson7-1
9Auburn7-1
10Oklahoma7-1
11Ball State8-1
12Baylor7-0
13LSU7-2
14Michigan State7-1
15Texas Tech7-1
16Miami (FL)7-0
17Fresno State7-0
18Texas A&M6-2
19Louisville7-1
20Brigham Young6-2
21Virginia Tech6-2
22South Carolina6-2
23Minnesota6-2
24Notre Dame6-2
25Michigan6-1
26Duke6-2
27Houston6-1
28Oregon State6-2
29Tulane6-2
30Oklahoma State6-1
31Arizona State5-2
32UCF6-1
33Arizona5-2
34Ole Miss5-3
35Washington5-3
36Toledo5-3
37Rice6-2
38Ohio6-2
39Iowa5-3
40Buffalo6-2
41UCLA5-2
42Georgia Tech5-3
43Texas5-2
44USC5-3
45Georgia4-3
46East Carolina5-2
47Wisconsin5-2
48Nebraska5-2
49Louisiana-Lafayette5-2
50Boise State5-3
51North Texas5-3
52Maryland5-3
53UNLV5-3
54Mississippi State4-3
55Florida4-3
56Texas State5-3
57Utah4-4
58Washington State4-4
59Bowling Green5-3
60Pittsburgh4-3
61Troy5-3
62Tennessee4-4
63Navy4-3
64Northwestern4-4
64Penn State4-3
66Rutgers4-3
67San Jose State4-3
68Wake Forest4-4
69Vanderbilt4-4
70Louisiana-Monroe4-4
71Colorado3-4
72Cincinnati5-2
73Marshall4-3
74TCU3-5
75Utah State4-4
76Middle Tennessee4-4
77Western Kentucky4-4
78Kansas State3-4
79Indiana3-4
80Boston College3-4
81West Virginia3-5
82Arkansas3-5
83Syracuse3-4
84Colorado State4-4
85Illinois3-4
86South Alabama3-4
87San Diego State3-4
88Central Michigan3-5
89Southern Methodist3-4
90North Carolina State3-4
91Wyoming4-4
92Arkansas State3-4
93UTSA3-5
94North Carolina2-5
95Nevada3-5
96Kansas2-5
97Virginia2-6
98Army3-5
99South Florida2-5
100Akron2-7
101Louisiana Tech3-5
102Florida Atlantic2-6
103Kent State2-7
104Tulsa2-5
105UAB2-5
106Iowa State1-6
107California1-7
108Memphis1-5
109Purdue1-6
110New Mexico2-5
111Kentucky1-6
112Eastern Michigan1-7
113Temple1-7
114Idaho1-7
115Florida International1-6
116Western Michigan1-8
117New Mexico State1-7
118Air Force1-7
119Massachusetts1-7
120Connecticut0-7
121Hawaii0-7
122UTEP1-6
123Southern Miss0-7
124Miami (OH)0-8


2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8

2013 World Series Projection, October 27

St. Louis over Boston

World Series
STL 2-1 BOS

League Championship Series
DET 2-4 BOS
LAD 2-4 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

TeamStrengthWin
STL0.622869.46
BOS0.618430.54

I'm not even sure what to say about the game-ending interference call last night. Either way, the Cardinals are in the driver's seat and have a 69% chance of beating the Red Sox now.

2013-10-25

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 8, Thursday

Kansas City over Seattle

Somehow I didn't realize Tampa Bay had also not won a game yet when I mentioned the previous winless teams sitting around waiting for Jacksonville to win. It's a sad state of affairs in Florida football right now. Miami's got the only wins, and sits at 3-3.

Carolina has climbed to the top NFC strength, and not simply because of an extra game, because they have played 7 just like Seattle has right now. That 38-0 game over the Giants really improved their points for and points against ratio. Still, they'll have a lot more trouble making the playoffs than Seattle and New Orleans, who are both projected to be more likely to make the Superbowl than Carolina.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC7-00.67571.21598.54988.04354.47833.32919.180
CAR4-30.65234.09766.58046.02525.97614.5097.905
SEA6-10.63978.68896.52384.51147.60626.12513.866
DEN6-10.62126.56089.78062.91432.37617.2608.914
NO5-10.61064.34085.82466.26334.82417.6728.843
IND5-20.60788.62891.82171.53839.16619.1559.613
SF5-20.58320.48876.56347.38922.53310.8185.114
DAL4-30.58081.16283.49250.36523.93811.3155.319
GB4-20.57456.33269.73446.62721.85510.1854.731
NE5-20.55866.27075.09247.64222.1069.7124.391
SD4-30.5502.17831.73417.0247.1533.2161.426
DET4-30.53526.40247.53026.15811.1124.7502.022
CIN5-20.53071.72377.64850.32121.9308.9583.802
CHI4-30.51116.99129.40814.7945.9072.3940.964
TEN3-40.49810.28225.61312.8725.0911.9830.779
ATL2-40.4931.5626.7523.0781.2000.4740.183
MIA3-30.49014.37724.27712.4924.7921.8130.701
BAL3-40.48514.10820.4879.5853.5801.3480.514
BUF3-40.4817.24013.4595.9622.1970.8280.312
PHI3-40.45213.52419.8638.0852.7950.9800.342
WAS2-40.4485.0416.6672.5070.8560.2980.103
STL3-40.4470.5543.6821.4630.5030.1760.061
CLE3-40.4449.03014.5916.1582.0690.7040.242
PIT2-40.4435.1398.5293.5341.1720.3990.136
NYJ4-30.43912.11321.7929.4113.1361.0480.357
ARI3-40.4390.2706.5492.4610.8160.2800.094
OAK2-40.4380.0484.5631.8070.5590.1930.065
MIN1-50.4170.2740.5180.1870.0580.0180.006
HOU2-50.3681.0802.0530.6950.1950.0550.015
TB0-70.3630.0010.0050.0020.0000.0000.000
NYG1-60.3540.2730.3090.0860.0220.0060.002
JAC0-70.2980.0100.0130.0030.0010.0000.000

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]

2013 World Series Projection, October 25

St. Louis over Boston

World Series
STL 1-1 BOS

League Championship Series
DET 2-4 BOS
LAD 2-4 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

TeamStrengthWin
STL0.622850.89
BOS0.618449.11

Just like that, by pulling even in the series, St. Louis is again the favorite. As I stated before, the margin is now smaller than it was when the series was 0-0, from 51.03-48.97 to 50.89-49.11. However, the Cardinals now have the home field advantage, with 3 games at home to only up to 2 more in Boston.

2013-10-24

eBay Wins #89

All the errors, the injury, and the overturned call at second base (to the right call) so early in game 1 felt a little strange...almost Doug Strange.

1990 Donruss #535 Doug Strange

Remember, once Doug left the Tigers after 1989, they were all Dougless. That joke doesn't work nearly as well in writing.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought2478
Total Spent$43.63
Per Card1.761 cents

2013 World Series Projection, October 24

Boston over St. Louis

World Series
STL 0-1 BOS

League Championship Series
DET 2-4 BOS
LAD 2-4 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

TeamStrengthWin
STL0.622835.27
BOS0.618464.73

Despite the blowout last night, I've got these two teams almost evenly matched, which means the favorite is always going to be the team that's leading. So the only interesting part of the projection is the percentage chance of winning. As the series moves on, ties at 1-1, 2-2, or 3-3 will put it even closer to a coin toss than my initial 51.03-48.97 projection. That's because each game favors St. Louis at just 50.47%, which would be their chances of winning game 7 in a 3-3 tie. Right now, though, you'd have to give me nearly 2:1 odds to take the Cardinals, were I more of a betting man.

2013-10-22

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 7, Final

Kansas City over Seattle

Last night was certainly no battle of league juggernauts. The game featured teams #31 and #28 out of 32 as far as strength goes. The Giants pulled out of their winless season, leaving only Jacksonville winless.  Much like the 1972 Dolphins are waiting around for the Chiefs to lose a game so they can pop the champagne - or so the legend goes - do you think the 1976 Buccanneers or 2008 Lions are sitting around with a lukewarm case of Stag beer if Jacksonville finally wins?

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC7-00.67571.21198.54488.01954.46133.32519.396
SEA6-10.63978.26796.75684.65948.29926.93714.296
CAR3-30.62225.38853.41134.31218.1949.5924.918
DEN6-10.62126.56489.74662.87832.35817.2519.025
NO5-10.61072.57787.90469.43537.10219.0299.522
IND5-20.60788.62691.80671.41339.08719.1169.720
SF5-20.58320.91078.23448.69423.38511.4175.398
DAL4-30.58081.14683.79251.51324.82411.8865.586
GB4-20.57456.54371.40148.38123.01510.8625.045
NE5-20.55866.70575.58248.15822.3559.8234.506
SD4-30.5502.17631.67216.9897.1383.2101.446
DET4-30.53526.06549.05027.31011.7455.0872.167
CIN5-20.53071.73377.63150.21221.8798.9343.852
CHI4-30.51117.11431.35416.0166.4812.6631.072
TEN3-40.49810.28525.53812.8155.0701.9750.789
ATL2-40.4932.0127.9453.6401.4250.5690.219
MIA3-30.49014.19024.18212.4494.7761.8040.708
BAL3-40.48514.10320.4619.5623.5701.3460.520
BUF3-40.4816.90312.9985.7572.1210.7990.306
PHI3-40.45213.54020.7448.6183.0141.0740.373
WAS2-40.4485.0426.9622.6740.9230.3280.113
STL3-40.4470.5453.9511.5820.5490.1960.067
CLE3-40.4449.02414.5636.1402.0630.7010.245
PIT2-40.4435.1398.5153.5261.1680.3980.139
NYJ4-30.43912.20222.1659.5933.2011.0710.370
ARI3-40.4390.2777.5252.8390.9470.3300.111
OAK2-40.4380.0484.5391.7960.5570.1920.066
MIN1-50.4170.2780.5800.2130.0670.0220.007
TB0-60.3960.0220.0710.0240.0070.0020.001
HOU2-50.3681.0782.0450.6900.1940.0540.015
NYG1-60.3540.2730.3190.0910.0240.0060.002
JAC0-70.2980.0100.0130.0030.0010.0000.000

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]

2013-10-21

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 7, Sunday

Kansas City over Seattle

Kansas City and Seattle remain on top, while Denver drops a game back in the standings behind KC. The two still have their 2 division games upcoming, which could swing those standings the opposite way, but it's clear now Peyton Manning is not invincible on the road.

The Rams let Steve Smith rile them up with trash talk, and lost their cool against the Panthers. There were entirely too many scuffles, fights, and ejections (1). Oh, and we lost our QB for the rest of the year. The Rams don't have the raw talent to make up for meltdowns like that, so they're going to have to learn to combat trash talk with excellent play, not behavior that gets penalized. Jeff Fisher seemed really vague about the plans for the Rams at QB, but the current word is that Kellen Clemens is starting Monday Night next week, Tim Tebow is off the table, and the Rams haven't ruled out picking up multiple QBs, since they're down to 1 at the moment. I hear Marc Bulger still lives in town...

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC7-00.67671.20398.54688.02654.47333.32519.401
SEA6-10.63978.04096.62484.47248.20126.89614.272
CAR3-30.62225.39253.70934.60618.3639.6834.964
DEN6-10.62126.56789.74462.89932.37717.2619.029
NO5-10.61072.57687.96969.65237.23419.0989.556
IND5-20.60788.63591.81771.50739.13919.1439.737
SF5-20.58321.12278.28748.85423.47511.4655.419
DAL4-30.58081.24283.80751.46124.80411.8785.582
GB4-20.57555.61370.30047.56822.61810.6704.957
NE5-20.55866.71675.63248.29222.4189.8454.513
SD4-30.5502.18231.72117.0187.1483.2151.448
DET4-30.53526.18348.66527.15811.6795.0572.152
CIN5-20.53071.48277.34949.85521.7158.8713.823
CHI4-30.51117.12531.04615.8676.4222.6341.061
TEN3-40.49810.27825.55112.8305.0741.9760.790
ATL2-40.4932.0108.0093.6791.4430.5760.222
MIA3-30.49014.18824.21712.4784.7831.8090.710
BAL3-40.48514.03720.2399.4443.5271.3260.514
BUF3-40.4816.89913.0325.7772.1260.8020.308
PHI3-40.45213.55020.5478.5302.9851.0630.369
WAS2-40.4485.0586.9092.6510.9160.3250.112
MIN1-40.4471.0792.4010.9950.3400.1200.041
STL3-40.4470.5563.9641.5920.5530.1990.069
CLE3-40.4449.22914.7536.2132.0870.7100.248
PIT2-40.4435.2528.5983.5551.1770.4010.139
NYJ4-30.43912.19722.2119.6183.2071.0710.370
ARI3-40.4390.2827.5202.8420.9470.3300.111
OAK2-40.4380.0484.5321.7910.5530.1910.066
TB0-60.3960.0230.0720.0240.0070.0020.001
HOU2-50.3681.0772.0460.6930.1940.0540.015
NYG0-60.3520.1490.1700.0480.0130.0030.001
JAC0-70.2980.0100.0130.0030.0010.0000.000

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]

2013-10-20

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 8

The closest team I have to "my" team, Missouri, has taken over the #1 slot. My alma mater, SLU, doesn't have a football team, but lots of friends and family have attended Mizzou, and they're the nearest FBS team, so what the heck, I root for them.

10 teams remain undefeated this week, with Miami (Florida) ranked lowest among them at #21, well below #14 LSU with 2 losses. Meanwhile, Miami (Ohio) held on to the bottom rank with another loss.

I didn't watch many games yesterday, but I did see the end of the Notre Dame-USC game, which vaulted the Fighting Irish into my top 25.

1Missouri7-0
2Oregon7-0
3Ohio State7-0
4Alabama7-0
5Florida State6-0
6Texas Tech7-0
7Northern Illinois7-0
8Stanford6-1
9Clemson6-1
10Auburn6-1
11Ball State7-1
12Virginia Tech6-1
13Baylor6-0
14LSU6-2
15Oklahoma6-1
16Michigan6-1
17Oregon State6-1
18Fresno State6-0
19Michigan State6-1
20Louisville6-1
21Miami (FL)6-0
22Arizona State5-2
23Texas A&M5-2
24Notre Dame5-2
25Brigham Young5-2
26UCLA5-1
27UCF5-1
28Tulane5-2
29South Carolina5-2
30Wisconsin5-2
31Minnesota5-2
32Oklahoma State5-1
33Houston5-1
34Nebraska5-1
35Georgia4-3
36Duke5-2
37Boise State5-2
38Maryland5-2
39East Carolina5-2
40Ole Miss4-3
41Washington4-3
42Ohio5-2
43Bowling Green5-2
44Utah4-3
45Rice5-2
46Arizona4-2
47Florida4-3
48Pittsburgh4-2
49Buffalo5-2
50Washington State4-4
51Tennessee4-3
52Toledo4-3
53Georgia Tech4-3
54USC4-3
55Northwestern4-3
56Penn State4-2
57Iowa4-3
58Texas4-2
59North Texas4-3
60Rutgers4-2
61Louisiana-Lafayette4-2
62Wake Forest4-3
63Marshall4-2
64Vanderbilt4-3
65Cincinnati5-2
66Colorado3-3
67Mississippi State3-3
68UNLV4-3
69Texas State4-3
70Western Kentucky4-3
71Boston College3-3
72TCU3-4
73West Virginia3-4
74Utah State4-4
75Indiana3-4
76Troy4-3
77South Alabama3-3
78Illinois3-3
79Syracuse3-4
80Louisiana-Monroe3-4
81Arkansas3-5
82Navy3-3
83Wyoming4-3
84San Jose State3-3
85San Diego State3-3
86North Carolina State3-3
87Central Michigan3-5
88Arkansas State3-3
89Nevada3-4
90Colorado State3-4
91Kansas State2-4
92Middle Tennessee3-4
93Virginia2-5
94Southern Methodist2-4
95Kansas2-4
96Army3-5
97South Florida2-4
98Akron2-6
99Kent State2-6
100Florida Atlantic2-5
101Tulsa2-4
102UAB2-4
103UTSA2-5
104North Carolina1-5
105California1-6
106Iowa State1-5
107Louisiana Tech2-5
108Purdue1-6
109Kentucky1-5
110New Mexico2-5
111Florida International1-5
112Temple1-6
113Memphis1-5
114Idaho1-6
115Eastern Michigan1-6
116Massachusetts1-6
117Air Force1-6
118Connecticut0-6
119Hawaii0-6
120Southern Miss0-6
121Western Michigan0-8
122UTEP1-5
123New Mexico State0-7
124Miami (OH)0-7


2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7

2013 World Series Projection, October 20

St. Louis over Boston

World Series
STL 0-0 BOS

League Championship Series
DET 2-4 BOS
LAD 2-4 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

TeamStrengthWin
STL0.622851.03
BOS0.618448.97

The World Series matchup is set, as Boston won 5-2 on Shane Victorino's Grand Slam. I've got the St. Louis as slight favorites, but this pretty much amounts to a tossup. Boston looked pretty strong in the ALCS, so hopefully the Cardinals pitching will quiet their bats a bit, and games 3-5 will be their only chances to face a David-Ortiz-free lineup, most likely. Today will be the first day without baseball since the All-Star break, because of the extra wildcard play-in in the AL, and the 5-game LDSs in each league.

2013-10-19

2013 World Series Projection, October 19

St. Louis over Boston

League Championship Series
DET 2-3 BOS
LAD 2-4 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

TeamStrengthWSWin
STL0.6228100.0051.50
BOS0.618475.8737.15
DET0.610024.1311.35

The Cardinals are in! The offense finally broke out last night and scored 9 runs, and Michael Wacha shut down the Dodgers for 7 innings to win the game and the NLCS MVP. Now they'll have 4 days off, so they'll be able to set their rotation however they'd like to face Boston or Detroit next Wednesday.

2013-10-18

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 7, Thursday

Kansas City over Seattle

Seattle predictably beat Arizona last night, and so improved their position in the NFC West, NFC, as well as the league overall. They're now the 2nd strongest team, up from the third, which doesn't make much difference unless they actually take on Denver in the Superbowl. Their next game is at the Rams, a game they lost last year, so hopefully history will repeat itself there.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC6-00.66058.92497.07081.74748.89129.26016.893
SEA6-10.63983.84896.67586.74151.50429.64716.031
DEN6-00.62239.80793.56070.28437.48520.44010.967
NO5-10.61080.33490.45473.93441.31321.77311.111
IND4-20.60375.44180.51455.59529.74814.8857.695
CAR2-30.59518.08839.92824.72612.6956.5013.221
NE5-10.56876.57685.09863.63431.34814.3236.891
SF4-20.55614.01065.02638.41417.7378.4313.845
DAL3-30.55159.96065.74638.33617.6958.1453.671
GB3-20.54233.55554.36534.30615.5617.0313.107
DET4-20.54038.87963.18439.84118.0178.1083.572
TEN3-30.53022.28138.62920.9019.2173.9391.745
CIN4-20.52452.11561.54637.00515.9986.6422.907
CHI4-20.51926.58548.31228.03511.9655.1312.151
SD3-30.5121.21718.4729.0903.6021.5110.643
MIA3-20.49417.08435.96720.0287.9933.1041.267
BAL3-30.49225.35133.37516.7456.6252.5671.042
CLE3-30.48419.33627.03313.0995.0751.9360.771
PHI3-30.47936.12243.87021.5888.3723.2661.246
ATL1-40.4781.4575.8852.6981.0440.4170.159
BUF2-40.4782.3196.5212.9301.0950.4170.164
STL3-30.4751.79011.0345.1331.9630.7840.297
MIN1-40.4470.9812.7921.2150.4250.1560.055
ARI3-40.4390.3527.3682.9491.0030.3630.125
PIT1-40.4393.1984.6501.8580.6290.2160.077
OAK2-40.4380.0523.8891.5290.4930.1730.062
WAS1-40.4363.6944.7401.8710.6390.2260.078
NYJ3-30.4304.02110.0734.3271.4350.4800.168
TB0-50.4070.1200.3680.1360.0440.0150.005
HOU2-40.3792.2153.5171.2070.3610.1070.032
NYG0-60.3530.2230.2520.0770.0210.0060.002
JAC0-60.3280.0630.0870.0220.0050.0010.000

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]

2013 World Series Projection, October 18

St. Louis over Boston

League Championship Series
DET 2-3 BOS
LAD 2-3 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

TeamStrengthWSWin
STL0.622881.9242.19
BOS0.618475.8739.36
DET0.610024.1312.06
LAD0.549918.086.40

Both LCSs are 3-2 in favor of the #1 seed over the #3 seed, so my most common projection through the whole postseason remains for today, with St. Louis projected to beat Boston. Hopefully the NLCS ends tonight.

2013-10-17

Some of Jaybarkerfan's Junk

Back in August, jaybarkerfan of Jaybarkerfan's Junk held a contest, but it wasn't so simple to enter. The 22 contestants were chosen one by one, randomized from those who commented on a post. So when I didn't win slot #1 get picked by commenting on post 1, I had to do it again for a chance at slot #2, etc. I wound up getting in, and drawing the 18th pick in a draft of 25 lots of cards.

I wanted to be ready to make my pick, so I ranked all 25 prizes on a scrap of paper at my desk, though I made an assumption that something baseball would be left, and didn't really worry about the football, hockey, basketball, or wrestling cards. Many of my top choices went before it was time for my pick, of course, but there was one that everyone shied away from, which was still somewhat high on my original list.

I give you the prize entitled: Juiced Up

2013 Topps - Manufactured Commemorative Patch #CP-17 Ryan Braun

2006 Topps Bazooka - Blasts Bat Relics #BBL-SS Sammy Sosa
I've always liked that Milwaukee Brewers logo. It's an M, a B, a glove, and a ball. What more do you really need? And Sammy Sosa was a big part of the home run chase in 1998 with Mark McGwire, which had this whole town even more baseball-crazy for a few months.

Clearly, the prize was titled Juiced Up due to the connection of both of these players to performance enhancing drugs. Braun has served his suspension, while Sosa and McGwire were never caught - or at least never punished - during their playing careers. We're probably not completely out of the PED era yet, but hopefully with the new testing policies and apparent willingness of MLB to come down hard on even star players, we'll see a stark reductions in PED abuse and fewer suspensions in 2014 and beyond.

Aside from that dark side of baseball, these are 2 pretty cool cards, especially as a prize, and Sosa's a player of whom I didn't yet own a relic.

Thanks for the cards, jaybarkerfan

2013 World Series Projection, October 17

St. Louis over Boston

League Championship Series
DET 2-2 BOS
LAD 2-3 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

TeamStrengthWSWin
STL0.622881.9242.57
BOS0.618451.3226.62
DET0.610048.6824.33
LAD0.549918.086.48

There will be plenty of outrage in St. Louis sports media today, as Mike Matheny chose to put in two relievers who have struggled, presumably to eat up some innings, when the Cardinals were already losing by 2. The 2 solo home runs they gave up would prove to be the difference in the game when the 9th inning comeback fell 2 runs short. Much like Mattingly pulling Adrian Gonzalez for a pinch runner and thus losing him for 6 innings of the 13 inning Game 1, it's easy to look at the move in retrospect as a poor choice, with the benefit of the knowledge of the results. If the game was lost 6-2, however, it would have appeared to be a sly move to keep Trevor Rosenthal and Seth Maness fresh for Friday.

Detroit, meanwhile, scored more than any team has in any LCS game so far, with 7. Personally, I enjoy the edge-of-your-seat feeling of 1-0 games, but it's nice to mix in a strong offensive performance now and then.

2013-10-16

2013 World Series Projection, October 16

St. Louis over Boston

League Championship Series
DET 1-2 BOS
LAD 1-3 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

TeamStrengthWSWin
STL0.622892.3147.64
BOS0.618470.0635.17
DET0.610029.9414.46
LAD0.54997.692.73

The Cardinals are now favored to win the NL at over 92%, but we know what happened last year in this same situation, when San Francisco won 3 in a row to win the NLCS 4-3. So, I'm not taking anything for granted. Boston won again last night, keeping the AL title in their favor.

2013-10-15

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 6, Final

Kansas City over Seattle

Both Kansas City and Denver got a boost when Indianapolis lost to fall to 4-2. Now only New England is right behind them at 5-1, with Indianapolis and Cincinnati 2 games back.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC6-00.66058.90997.07881.73448.89829.25917.144
DEN6-00.62239.81993.58270.27937.49020.43811.150
SEA5-10.62175.05091.97078.80145.29725.26713.198
NO5-10.61080.52190.56474.83942.06222.79911.635
IND4-20.60375.41980.39055.36029.60914.8257.800
CAR2-30.59517.92539.13424.49312.7866.6913.308
NE5-10.56876.56285.11763.73731.40214.3507.037
SF4-20.55619.47764.34339.71018.9039.1174.154
DAL3-30.55160.18965.77238.94618.3308.6013.879
GB3-20.54233.53253.93334.58616.0257.3863.267
DET4-20.54038.87262.47440.10218.5338.5123.748
TEN3-30.53022.30038.40420.7649.1623.9181.768
CIN4-20.52452.11761.56437.06916.0266.6472.965
CHI4-20.51926.59247.76628.27312.3475.4022.263
SD3-30.5121.21918.5489.1203.6191.5210.662
MIA3-20.49417.10036.02320.0848.0223.1271.306
BAL3-30.49225.35733.41616.8046.6402.5711.067
CLE3-30.48419.32727.05513.1345.0961.9430.791
PHI3-30.47935.84943.26721.6118.5783.4211.305
ATL1-40.4781.4335.7692.6751.0630.4350.165
BUF2-40.4782.3166.5462.9411.0990.4190.169
STL3-30.4752.65911.3895.4562.1590.8750.332
ARI3-30.4632.81415.4947.1782.7381.0640.390
MIN1-40.4471.0032.7941.2360.4480.1680.060
PIT1-40.4393.1984.6661.8680.6340.2180.079
OAK2-40.4380.0533.9191.5410.4960.1740.063
WAS1-40.4363.7324.7151.8810.6640.2400.082
NYJ3-30.4304.02110.1244.3571.4450.4840.173
TB0-50.4070.1210.3590.1340.0450.0150.005
HOU2-40.3792.2183.4811.1870.3560.1060.033
NYG0-60.3530.2310.2580.0800.0220.0060.002
JAC0-60.3280.0630.0870.0220.0060.0020.000

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]

2013 World Series Projection, October 15

St. Louis over Boston

League Championship Series
DET 1-1 BOS
LAD 1-2 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

TeamStrengthWSWin
STL0.622879.0541.08
BOS0.618451.6527.03
DET0.610048.3524.39
LAD0.549920.957.51

Los Angeles has ensured the NLCS will go to at least 5 games. If you looked at the pitching matchups for this series in advance, I think the reverse of all 3 results would be the typical expectation. Greinke and Kershaw against guys with a lot less name recognition or experience, Lynn and Wacha, would seem to tip the scales for LA, yet Wainwright against Ryu should normally go St. Louis's way. But, that's why they play the games. I've still got St. Louis and Boston favored to make the World Series, a rematch - with hopefully a different result - of 2004.

2013-10-14

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 6, Sunday

Kansas City over Seattle

Combined, Kansas City and Denver win the AFC West title in 99.425% of my simulations, and the two division rivals are now the two strongest teams in the league. Now that New Orleans has lost, these are the only 2 undefeated teams left, and of course they can't both finish undefeated, as they have 2 games against each other in their future.

At the bottom of the league, Jacksonville and Tampa lost again, but Pittsburgh won, leaving 3 winless teams. There are no games between them, so it's still possible we could have 3 0-16 teams.

And somewhere around the middle, the St. Louis pulled off a win against the struggling Houston, a game that came at a time the Rams are on the move with a new starting running back, and the Texans were on a cold streak with 3 straight losses. The Rams are still down in the division thanks to San Francisco and Seattle, but a few more lucky breaks could increase their 11% chance of making the playoffs.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC6-00.66059.29597.44881.88148.83728.97716.979
DEN6-00.62240.13094.23170.63137.51620.27611.060
SEA5-10.62175.07491.98978.82945.31825.30413.160
NO5-10.61080.52490.56374.85242.06522.78411.571
IND4-10.60882.01687.66565.85735.68517.9329.511
CAR2-30.59517.92539.15924.50912.7856.6883.295
NE5-10.56876.45685.28561.25329.63613.5326.629
SF4-20.55619.48464.36439.70518.9009.1084.132
DAL3-30.55160.15465.74638.92318.3278.6043.858
GB3-20.54233.54153.93434.58316.0217.3873.246
DET4-20.54038.86862.49740.12218.5348.5073.726
TEN3-30.53016.51137.12119.7268.5453.6351.642
CIN4-20.52452.33962.26336.09715.3836.3732.843
CHI4-20.51926.59247.76428.26712.3515.4052.252
MIA3-20.49417.22637.02419.7757.7653.0091.254
SD2-30.4930.5249.2404.2801.6130.6440.267
BAL3-30.49225.24933.59616.1686.2902.4331.008
CLE3-30.48419.23627.17812.6844.8381.8430.751
PHI3-30.47935.81643.24121.5938.5763.4151.294
ATL1-40.4781.4305.7592.6701.0620.4320.164
BUF2-40.4782.3106.7482.9451.0850.4120.165
STL3-30.4752.64511.3345.4292.1470.8680.326
ARI3-30.4632.79715.4507.1622.7311.0650.388
MIN1-40.4470.9992.7851.2320.4460.1670.059
PIT1-40.4393.1764.6681.8080.6020.2060.075
OAK2-40.4380.0524.0851.5900.5110.1770.065
WAS1-40.4363.7954.7911.9060.6700.2420.082
NYJ3-30.4304.00810.3634.2531.3880.4620.166
TB0-50.4070.1210.3610.1350.0450.0160.005
HOU2-40.3791.4373.0171.0370.3030.0890.027
NYG0-60.3520.2350.2640.0820.0230.0070.002
JAC0-60.3280.0370.0660.0170.0040.0010.000

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]

2013 World Series Projection, October 14

St. Louis over Boston

League Championship Series
DET 1-1 BOS
LAD 0-2 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

TeamStrengthWSWin
STL0.622889.2146.36
LAD0.549910.793.87
BOS0.618451.6526.19
DET0.610048.3523.59

Boston is the ALCS favorite again, after tying the series in dramatic fashion last night. From a numbers standpoint, a 7 game series tied at 1-1 is equivalent to a 5-game series, since I don't take location into account. This means Boston's chances are slightly worse than they were at the beginning of the series, down from 51.92% to 51.65%, since the longer a series goes, the better chances the stronger team has. Tonight St. Louis could take an overwhelming 3-0 lead, which is almost insurmountable based on history, though famously was overcome by Boston against the New York in 2004 on their way to a World Series win over St. Louis

2013-10-13

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 7

Ohio State lost my #1 ranking during their bye week, which they held on the strength of being the only 6-0 team, and now there are 8.

Clemson takes over at #1 with a win, and Mizzou climbed all the way to #2 by beating previously #17 Georgia. A victory next week over Florida would give them another, slightly smaller boost, though Clemson would retain #1 with a win since Florida State is ranked even higher.

All the way at the bottom is Miami (OH). Western Michigan, the only 7-loss team, avoids being ranked last because they've played 3 relatively higher ranked Big 10 teams, Northwestern, Iowa, and Michigan State.

1Clemson6-0
2Missouri6-0
3LSU6-1
4Ohio State6-0
5Oregon6-0
6Virginia Tech6-1
7Alabama6-0
8Northern Illinois6-0
9Louisville6-0
10Florida State5-0
10Texas Tech6-0
12Stanford5-1
13Ball State6-1
14Texas A&M5-1
15Baylor5-0
16Auburn5-1
17Oklahoma5-1
18Michigan State5-1
19UCLA5-0
20Oregon State5-1
21Tulane5-2
22South Carolina5-1
23Nebraska5-1
24Miami (FL)5-0
25Fresno State5-0
26Michigan5-1
27Georgia4-2
28Maryland5-1
29Houston5-0
30Washington4-2
31Bowling Green5-2
32Arizona State4-2
32Utah4-2
34Florida4-2
35Washington State4-3
36Notre Dame4-2
37East Carolina4-2
38Northwestern4-2
39Penn State4-2
40Brigham Young4-2
41Oklahoma State4-1
42USC4-2
43Wisconsin4-2
44Duke4-2
45UCF4-1
46Rutgers4-2
47Minnesota4-2
48Rice4-2
49Boise State4-2
50Ohio4-2
51Marshall4-2
52Iowa4-2
53Texas4-2
54Mississippi State3-3
55Buffalo4-2
56UNLV4-2
57Western Kentucky4-2
58Boston College3-3
59Syracuse3-3
60Arizona3-2
61Ole Miss3-3
62Pittsburgh3-2
63TCU3-3
64West Virginia3-3
65Indiana3-3
66Illinois3-2
67Wyoming4-2
68North Texas3-3
69Toledo3-3
70Navy3-2
71Troy4-3
72Georgia Tech3-3
73Arkansas3-4
74Tennessee3-3
75Cincinnati4-2
76Louisiana-Monroe3-4
77Louisiana-Lafayette3-2
78Wake Forest3-3
79Texas State3-3
80North Carolina State3-3
81San Diego State3-3
82Vanderbilt3-3
83Arkansas State3-3
84San Jose State3-3
85Nevada3-3
86Central Michigan3-4
87Utah State3-4
88Army3-4
89South Alabama2-3
90Colorado2-3
91Virginia2-4
92Middle Tennessee3-4
93Kansas State2-4
94Kansas2-3
95Kent State2-5
96South Florida2-4
97Florida Atlantic2-5
98UAB2-4
99UTSA2-5
100Tulsa2-4
101Southern Methodist1-4
102Louisiana Tech2-4
103California1-5
104Colorado State2-4
105North Carolina1-4
106Akron1-6
107Iowa State1-4
108Memphis1-4
109Kentucky1-5
110New Mexico2-4
111Purdue1-5
112Florida International1-5
113Eastern Michigan1-5
114Idaho1-6
115Massachusetts1-5
116Connecticut0-5
117Air Force1-6
118Temple0-6
119Hawaii0-6
120Southern Miss0-5
121Western Michigan0-7
122UTEP1-5
123New Mexico State0-6
124Miami (OH)0-6


2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6