2021-11-30

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 12, Final

New England over Arizona

Washington beat Seattle on Monday, but 2 sub-.500 teams don't have much effect on the teams at the top, no matter the result this late in the season.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE8-40.74548.997.777.050.132.420.7
ARI9-20.68396.5100.082.750.930.115.4
BUF7-40.72851.091.164.139.524.014.8
TB8-30.64395.799.166.036.119.08.9
CIN7-40.64246.683.353.228.113.16.8
DAL7-40.62289.095.657.028.914.56.5
GB9-30.58196.999.967.832.814.55.9
BAL8-30.54449.691.851.621.07.73.2
LAR7-40.5623.185.738.816.87.52.9
TEN8-40.52596.998.150.720.07.02.8
SF6-50.5580.476.233.414.36.32.4
KC7-40.55646.867.331.012.95.02.2
IND6-60.5953.143.421.79.84.22.0
DEN6-50.57228.446.821.99.43.81.7
MIN5-60.5093.047.818.56.92.70.9
PHI5-70.5565.129.813.05.52.40.9
NO5-60.5153.434.013.45.12.10.7
LAC6-50.46616.834.913.04.31.30.5
LV6-50.4388.021.67.52.30.70.2
CLE6-60.4742.712.84.81.60.50.2
WAS5-60.4025.117.05.11.50.40.1
PIT5-5-10.4171.19.73.20.90.20.1
CAR5-70.4630.64.91.70.60.20.1
NYG4-70.3950.84.01.20.30.10.0
MIA5-70.4090.01.50.50.10.00.0
SEA3-80.4620.00.80.30.10.00.0
ATL5-60.3200.33.80.90.20.00.0
CHI4-70.3440.01.40.30.10.00.0
NYJ3-80.289-0.00.00.00.00.0
JAC2-90.2970.00.00.00.00.00.0
HOU2-90.2740.00.00.00.00.00.0
DET0-10-10.292------

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Detroit (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 10, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 12, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Arizona

2021-11-29

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 12, Sunday

New England over Arizona

With a win on Sunday, New England took back the AFC lead from Buffalo. They're up by 1 win in the standings, but Buffalo is actually still just about 51% likely to win the division. The difference comes in New England's higher chance at a Wildcard, and their higher strength. Also, while Arizona shows a 100.0% chance of making the playoffs, that's actually just rounded up from 99.97, so they haven't quite clinched yet.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE8-40.74548.997.777.050.132.520.7
ARI9-20.68396.5100.082.750.830.115.4
BUF7-40.72851.091.064.139.524.014.8
TB8-30.64395.799.166.036.118.98.9
CIN7-40.64246.683.353.228.113.16.8
DAL7-40.62290.796.057.229.114.66.5
GB9-30.58196.999.967.832.714.55.9
BAL8-30.54449.691.851.621.07.73.2
LAR7-40.5623.185.538.516.77.42.9
TEN8-40.52596.998.150.720.07.02.8
SF6-50.5580.475.733.014.16.32.4
KC7-40.55646.867.331.012.95.02.2
IND6-60.5953.143.421.79.84.22.0
DEN6-50.57228.446.821.99.43.81.7
MIN5-60.5093.049.419.17.12.81.0
PHI5-70.5565.330.613.45.62.51.0
NO5-60.5153.434.613.65.22.10.7
LAC6-50.46616.834.912.94.31.30.5
LV6-50.4388.021.67.52.30.60.2
CLE6-60.4742.712.84.81.60.50.2
PIT5-5-10.4171.19.73.20.90.20.1
WAS4-60.4023.110.13.00.90.30.1
CAR5-70.4630.65.21.80.60.20.1
SEA3-70.4670.04.41.50.50.20.1
NYG4-70.3950.94.21.20.30.10.0
MIA5-70.4090.01.50.50.10.00.0
ATL5-60.3200.33.90.90.20.00.0
CHI4-70.3440.01.60.40.10.00.0
NYJ3-80.289-0.00.00.00.00.0
HOU2-90.2740.00.00.00.00.00.0
JAC2-90.2970.00.00.00.00.00.0
DET0-10-10.292------

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Detroit (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 10, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 12, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo

2021-11-26

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 12, Thursday

Arizona over Buffalo

As is now tradition, we had 3 games on Thanksgiving day. Also now tradition, Detroit is messing things up for me. They hosted Chicago and lost again, but at 0-10-1 are not quite actually eliminated from the playoffs. But none of my simulations put them there. I thought maybe there was some situation where a bunch of teams would need to tie so that only 6 teams would finish ahead of them in the conference, but by monkeying with some fake data I was able to force them into the playoffs with 6 more wins and a bunch of wins by the teams that already have 7+ wins, who will have to finish ahead of them anyway. So, in short, they're more likley to win the lottery, maybe even twice, than to make the playoffs.

Dallas also hosted a game as usual, and lost to Las Vegas in overtime. They're still pretty well-favored to win their division at 84%, but a 3 game lead would have been nearly insurmountable. Vegas is only one game worse than Dallas, but stuck in a better division and only 7% likely to win it, 21% likely to make the playoffs.

The big swing of the day came when Buffalo won at New Orleans, tying them at 7-4 with New England, and also boosting their strength back up to the top in the AFC. Those two still have 2 games to play against each other, so there's a lot of uncertainty to the numbers, but Buffalo is now 60.5% likely to win the AFC East vs. New England's 39.5%, and the other teams virtually eliminated. Interestingly, New England has a bit of an easier schedule ahead, and is slightly more likely to make the playoffs, and advance out of the first weekend and second weekend. But, by that time they are likely to run into Buffalo, who is the most likely AFC team to make and/or win the Super Bowl.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
ARI9-20.68392.699.985.652.931.617.0
BUF7-40.72860.590.364.141.326.416.3
NE7-40.71339.592.266.841.825.915.6
TB7-30.63587.895.459.932.416.78.1
DAL7-40.62383.994.956.529.214.76.9
TEN8-30.56595.198.267.230.912.75.6
GB8-30.56987.198.659.327.511.95.0
LAR7-30.5767.290.245.720.99.54.1
CIN6-40.59236.565.436.817.67.83.7
IND6-50.6084.958.131.015.27.13.5
BAL7-30.53143.876.339.015.96.12.5
KC7-40.55643.366.632.213.95.72.5
PHI5-60.56413.250.723.110.04.51.9
SF5-50.5450.250.622.09.03.91.5
MIN5-50.52312.760.725.510.04.11.5
LAC6-40.49234.755.123.98.93.11.2
DEN5-50.53915.227.612.35.12.00.8
NO5-60.5156.227.911.44.41.80.7
CLE6-50.48611.926.010.13.71.30.5
PIT5-4-10.4767.723.29.33.31.10.4
CAR5-60.5135.715.76.52.51.00.4
LV6-50.4386.920.67.32.40.70.2
WAS4-60.4022.68.22.50.70.20.1
SEA3-70.4670.03.01.10.40.10.0
NYG3-70.3890.31.50.40.10.00.0
CHI4-70.3440.11.20.30.10.00.0
ATL4-60.3180.31.60.40.10.00.0
MIA4-70.3670.00.40.10.00.00.0
JAC2-80.3130.00.00.00.00.00.0
HOU2-80.2910.00.00.00.00.00.0
NYJ2-80.2920.00.00.00.00.00.0
DET0-10-10.292------

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Detroit (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 10, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Final] New England over Arizona

2021-11-23

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 11, Final

New England over Arizona

Tampa beat New York, which lets them creep up just close enough to the top of the NFC to bring Arizona down below New England in overall Super Bowl winning chances, which makes the projection look a little less nonsensical today. So I guess... thanks, Tampa? Also, while Detroit is not eliminated, at no time during my 2 billion simulations did they win the Super Bowl. They did make the NFC title game about 1 in a million times, and won it at least a few times to make it to the Super Bowl. Clearly I need more simulations, and more decimal places in my charts.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE7-40.71352.693.669.844.828.717.2
ARI9-20.68392.499.983.851.430.517.0
BUF6-40.69147.480.452.231.518.810.8
DAL7-30.62988.696.961.932.916.78.3
TB7-30.63582.594.558.331.116.08.1
TEN8-30.56595.198.467.931.813.66.0
GB8-30.56987.298.256.926.011.34.9
LAR7-30.5767.489.044.420.19.24.1
CIN6-40.59236.567.138.318.68.64.0
IND6-50.6084.961.533.216.68.13.9
KC7-40.55644.568.734.015.16.42.8
BAL7-30.53143.877.740.116.86.72.7
PHI5-60.5649.846.821.19.14.11.8
NO5-50.56112.242.619.48.43.71.6
SF5-50.5450.248.020.78.53.61.5
MIN5-50.52312.857.423.99.33.81.5
LAC6-40.49235.957.925.49.73.51.3
DEN5-50.53916.129.213.35.72.31.0
CLE6-50.48612.027.611.14.21.50.5
PIT5-4-10.4767.725.210.33.81.30.5
CAR5-60.5135.114.35.82.20.90.3
LV5-50.4303.512.24.31.40.40.1
WAS4-60.4021.56.72.00.60.20.0
SEA3-70.4670.02.50.90.30.10.0
NYG3-70.3890.11.10.30.10.00.0
ATL4-60.3180.21.30.30.10.00.0
MIA4-70.3670.00.40.10.00.00.0
CHI3-70.3460.10.60.20.00.00.0
JAC2-80.3130.00.00.00.00.00.0
HOU2-80.2910.00.00.00.00.00.0
NYJ2-80.2920.00.00.00.00.00.0
DET0-9-10.304-0.00.00.00.0-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Detroit (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 10, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over Arizona

2021-11-22

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 11, Sunday

New England over Arizona

Buffalo lost again, ruining their shot at taking back the AFC lead. In the NFC, Arizona won to be the first team to 9 wins, and a 99.9% chance at making the playoffs. Detroit lost their 8th game, which gives us our first division elimination of the year, which is two weeks later than last year.

In case you think I've made a mistake, allow me to explain the chart and projection. The table is sorted by chances to win the Super Bowl, but the "projection" I make involves both the AFC and NFC winner. So, while Arizona is the most likely champion overall, if they were matched up against the AFC favorite, New England, they would not be the favorite, because New England has the higher Strength value.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
ARI9-20.68492.499.984.852.631.717.6
NE7-40.71452.093.669.844.828.617.3
BUF6-40.69148.080.952.731.819.011.0
DAL7-30.62988.696.762.533.917.48.6
TEN8-30.56594.898.467.931.813.66.1
TB6-30.60373.188.049.824.712.05.6
GB8-30.56987.298.357.826.911.85.2
LAR7-30.5767.489.445.721.09.74.3
CIN6-40.59236.567.138.218.68.64.1
IND6-50.6085.262.433.716.98.24.0
KC7-40.55645.168.633.915.06.42.8
BAL7-30.53143.877.740.016.76.72.8
NO5-50.56118.044.721.09.24.11.8
PHI5-60.5649.444.320.48.84.01.7
SF5-50.5450.248.421.48.93.91.6
MIN5-50.52312.858.024.79.84.01.6
LAC6-40.49235.256.924.89.53.41.3
DEN5-50.53916.229.213.35.72.31.0
CLE6-50.48612.027.611.04.11.50.6
PIT5-4-10.4767.725.110.23.71.30.5
CAR5-60.5138.617.07.12.81.10.4
LV5-50.4303.612.24.31.40.40.1
WAS4-60.4021.56.52.00.60.20.0
NYG3-60.4270.54.11.30.40.10.0
SEA3-70.4670.02.60.90.30.10.0
ATL4-60.3180.41.50.40.10.00.0
MIA4-70.3670.00.40.10.00.00.0
CHI3-70.3460.10.60.20.00.00.0
JAC2-80.3130.00.00.00.00.00.0
HOU2-80.2910.00.00.00.00.00.0
NYJ2-80.2920.00.00.00.00.00.0
DET0-9-10.304-0.00.00.00.00.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Detroit (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 10, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over Arizona

2021-11-19

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 11, Thursday

New England over Arizona

New England completely dominated Atlanta, winning 25-0. Atlanta was already the 7th worst team, with New England 3rd best. After that game, Atlanta falls just one spot, but New England has snuck up and stolen the AFC from Buffalo.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE7-40.71439.495.169.044.027.616.9
BUF6-30.71260.693.866.842.526.416.2
ARI8-20.66486.799.574.443.925.313.3
DAL7-20.63595.898.868.137.620.09.9
TEN8-20.57899.499.881.240.217.28.0
GB8-20.57994.399.266.132.114.76.4
TB6-30.60360.387.348.223.811.85.5
LAR7-30.57712.790.445.821.410.04.4
NO5-40.58525.966.032.915.57.43.3
CIN5-40.55927.456.028.112.25.22.3
BAL6-30.52542.274.135.414.15.52.3
KC6-40.53735.856.425.210.44.21.8
IND5-50.5660.636.918.08.13.51.6
DEN5-50.53920.535.215.56.52.71.1
MIN4-50.5185.642.017.36.92.81.1
CAR5-50.52713.636.615.66.42.71.0
PIT5-3-10.48219.947.719.87.22.50.9
LAC5-40.48431.148.219.27.02.50.9
PHI4-60.5473.428.012.25.22.30.9
SF4-50.5070.333.713.45.22.10.8
LV5-40.46412.630.311.84.11.40.5
CLE5-50.48110.525.99.93.61.30.5
SEA3-60.4890.37.72.91.10.40.2
NYG3-60.4270.44.71.50.50.20.0
WAS3-60.3930.43.20.90.30.10.0
CHI3-60.3570.11.30.40.10.00.0
ATL4-60.3180.21.60.40.10.00.0
MIA3-70.3570.00.30.10.00.00.0
JAC2-70.3460.00.10.00.00.00.0
NYJ2-70.3080.00.10.00.00.00.0
HOU1-80.2930.00.00.00.00.00.0
DET0-8-10.3200.00.00.00.00.00.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 10, Final] Buffalo over Arizona

2021-11-16

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 10, Final

Buffalo over Arizona

San Francisco beat LA, which only served to strengthen the position of their division rival, Arizona. They went from a 73% chance of winning the NFC West, up to 86.7%.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BUF6-30.71269.494.667.944.628.717.5
ARI8-20.66486.799.574.544.025.413.8
NE6-40.67130.689.559.335.020.311.5
DAL7-20.63695.898.868.237.720.110.3
TEN8-20.57899.499.883.342.218.98.8
GB8-20.57994.399.366.332.214.86.7
TB6-30.60460.086.847.923.711.85.7
LAR7-30.57712.790.645.921.510.14.6
NO5-40.58525.864.932.415.27.33.4
CIN5-40.55927.456.228.712.95.72.6
BAL6-30.52542.274.436.014.86.12.5
KC6-40.53735.856.826.211.14.72.0
IND5-50.5660.639.119.28.94.11.9
DEN5-50.53920.535.516.26.93.01.3
MIN4-50.5185.642.217.47.02.91.1
CAR5-50.52713.535.815.36.32.61.1
PIT5-3-10.48219.948.420.57.72.81.1
LAC5-40.48431.148.420.07.52.81.1
PHI4-60.5473.428.312.35.32.31.0
SF4-50.5070.232.813.05.12.00.8
LV5-40.46412.630.712.24.41.50.6
CLE5-50.48110.526.110.33.91.40.5
SEA3-60.4890.37.83.01.10.40.2
NYG3-60.4270.44.71.50.50.20.0
WAS3-60.3930.43.20.90.30.10.0
ATL4-50.3600.74.01.10.30.10.0
CHI3-60.3570.11.40.40.10.00.0
MIA3-70.3570.00.40.10.00.00.0
JAC2-70.3460.00.10.00.00.00.0
NYJ2-70.3080.00.10.00.00.00.0
HOU1-80.2930.00.00.00.00.00.0
DET0-8-10.3200.00.00.00.00.00.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona

2021-11-15

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 10, Sunday

Buffalo over Arizona

The projection flipped again with Buffalo winning while Arizona lost this time. Both remain on top of their conferences, though. Also, we had a tie! Wait, no one's ever supposed to be excited about a tie. So much for any chance of Detroit becoming the first ever 0-17 in the first possible year.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BUF6-30.71269.494.667.844.528.617.4
ARI8-20.66473.099.472.842.524.313.2
NE6-40.67130.689.559.234.920.311.4
DAL7-20.63695.898.966.536.319.29.9
TEN8-20.57899.499.883.742.519.08.8
LAR7-20.60726.897.057.128.814.36.9
GB8-20.57994.199.364.330.714.06.4
TB6-30.60460.088.047.123.111.45.5
NO5-40.58525.766.532.515.17.23.3
CIN5-40.55928.257.129.213.15.82.6
BAL6-30.52541.373.735.614.66.02.5
KC6-40.53735.856.826.211.14.72.0
IND5-50.5660.639.019.28.94.11.8
DEN5-50.53920.535.516.26.93.01.3
MIN4-50.5185.844.918.47.33.01.2
CAR5-50.52713.537.815.76.42.71.1
PIT5-3-10.48220.048.420.47.72.81.0
PHI4-60.5473.430.613.25.62.51.0
LAC5-40.48431.148.319.97.52.81.0
LV5-40.46412.630.712.14.41.50.5
CLE5-50.48110.626.110.33.91.40.5
SF3-50.4690.114.65.21.80.70.2
SEA3-60.4890.27.82.91.10.40.2
NYG3-60.4270.45.51.70.50.20.1
WAS3-60.3930.43.51.00.30.10.0
ATL4-50.3600.74.51.20.30.10.0
CHI3-60.3570.11.70.40.10.00.0
MIA3-70.3570.00.40.10.00.00.0
JAC2-70.3460.00.10.00.00.00.0
NYJ2-70.3080.00.10.00.00.00.0
HOU1-80.2930.00.00.00.00.00.0
DET0-8-10.3200.00.00.00.00.00.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo

2021-11-12

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 10, Thursday

Arizona over Buffalo

Baltimore had an opportunity to gain ground on Buffalo. They were already a full game ahead of them before losing to Miami on Thursday

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
ARI8-10.68682.399.885.053.532.719.7
BUF5-30.68373.189.562.339.925.214.4
TEN7-20.57498.899.578.940.419.48.9
TB6-20.61469.495.658.230.515.17.9
LAR7-20.60817.397.158.429.514.67.6
NE5-40.61326.869.841.122.412.06.0
DAL6-20.57893.696.653.025.511.65.6
NO5-30.58826.680.642.320.09.54.7
GB7-20.54091.296.650.722.29.24.1
DEN5-40.57829.353.929.014.37.13.2
CIN5-40.55924.053.028.013.46.32.8
BAL6-30.52534.367.933.914.96.52.7
CLE5-40.55322.449.024.911.75.52.4
LV5-30.51325.954.727.011.64.92.0
LAC5-30.49632.756.826.510.94.51.7
IND4-50.5551.128.213.66.53.11.4
PIT5-30.48319.447.321.88.83.51.3
MIN3-50.5068.434.114.15.32.10.9
KC5-40.48912.029.312.65.12.10.8
SEA3-50.5240.322.59.73.81.60.7
PHI3-60.5164.519.98.43.21.30.6
CAR4-50.4732.314.95.72.00.70.3
SF3-50.4690.014.55.51.80.70.3
ATL4-40.4221.716.65.61.70.50.2
NYG3-60.4271.36.82.30.70.20.1
WAS2-60.3800.62.00.60.20.00.0
CHI3-60.3570.42.20.60.10.00.0
JAC2-60.3590.10.60.20.00.00.0
MIA3-70.3570.00.40.10.00.00.0
NYJ2-60.3390.10.30.10.00.00.0
DET0-80.3310.00.00.00.00.00.0
HOU1-80.2920.00.00.00.00.00.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo

2021-11-09

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 9, Final

Arizona over Buffalo

Pittsburgh's narrow win over Chicago didn't shake things up for any other teams, and the projection remains the same.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
ARI8-10.68682.599.885.153.632.819.7
BUF5-30.68373.088.760.938.824.514.0
TEN7-20.57498.999.476.939.118.88.6
TB6-20.61469.395.658.230.515.17.9
LAR7-20.60817.297.158.329.514.67.6
NE5-40.61327.068.839.921.711.75.8
DAL6-20.57893.696.653.025.511.65.6
NO5-30.58826.880.842.420.19.54.7
BAL6-20.54449.682.547.021.89.94.2
GB7-20.54091.196.650.622.29.14.1
DEN5-40.57829.352.928.113.96.83.1
CIN5-40.55918.050.726.412.66.02.6
CLE5-40.55317.246.423.311.05.12.2
LV5-30.51325.953.325.911.14.71.9
LAC5-30.49632.755.925.710.64.31.6
IND4-50.5551.127.113.06.22.91.3
PIT5-30.48315.244.820.48.23.21.2
MIN3-50.5068.534.114.15.32.10.9
KC5-40.48912.028.512.24.92.00.7
SEA3-50.5240.322.59.73.81.60.7
PHI3-60.5164.519.98.43.21.30.6
CAR4-50.4732.315.05.72.00.70.3
SF3-50.4690.014.55.51.80.70.3
ATL4-40.4221.616.55.61.70.50.2
NYG3-60.4271.36.92.30.70.20.1
WAS2-60.3800.62.00.60.20.00.0
CHI3-60.3570.42.10.60.10.00.0
JAC2-60.3590.10.50.10.00.00.0
NYJ2-60.3390.10.30.10.00.00.0
MIA2-70.3450.00.10.00.00.00.0
DET0-80.3310.00.00.00.00.00.0
HOU1-80.2920.00.00.00.00.00.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo

2021-11-08

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 9, Sunday

Arizona over Buffalo

Buffalo loses for a third time, but still holds the top spot in the AFC. Arizona's win brings them to 8-1 and to the overall top position.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
ARI8-10.68682.499.885.153.632.819.7
BUF5-30.68373.089.161.239.024.614.1
TEN7-20.57498.999.577.239.218.88.6
TB6-20.61469.395.658.230.515.17.9
LAR7-20.60817.297.058.429.514.67.6
NE5-40.61327.069.540.321.911.85.8
DAL6-20.57893.696.653.025.511.65.6
NO5-30.58826.880.642.420.19.54.7
BAL6-20.54451.383.447.522.010.04.3
GB7-20.54090.896.450.622.29.14.1
DEN5-40.57829.353.828.514.16.93.2
CIN5-40.55918.851.726.912.86.02.7
CLE5-40.55318.247.423.811.25.22.3
LV5-30.51325.954.026.211.24.81.9
LAC5-30.49632.856.826.010.74.41.7
IND4-50.5551.127.813.36.43.01.3
PIT4-30.47711.736.816.36.52.50.9
MIN3-50.5068.533.914.05.22.10.9
KC5-40.48912.129.212.45.02.00.8
SEA3-50.5240.322.39.63.81.60.7
PHI3-60.5164.519.78.33.21.30.6
CAR4-50.4732.314.85.72.00.70.3
SF3-50.4690.014.35.41.80.70.3
ATL4-40.4221.716.45.51.60.50.2
NYG3-60.4271.36.82.30.70.20.1
CHI3-50.3590.73.71.00.20.10.0
WAS2-60.3800.62.00.60.20.00.0
JAC2-60.3590.10.50.20.00.00.0
NYJ2-60.3390.10.30.10.00.00.0
MIA2-70.3450.00.10.00.00.00.0
DET0-80.3310.00.00.00.00.00.0
HOU1-80.2920.00.00.00.00.00.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona

2021-11-05

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 9, Thursday

Buffalo over Arizona

Indianapolis beat New York 45-30, but two sub-.500 teams rarely can do anything to affect the overall projection, and Buffalo remains on top of the AFC. But at least one interesting thing happened. That's another first-ever-in-the-NFL final score, aka, Scorigami, which just happened in Week 7 as well.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BUF5-20.66685.295.771.144.527.615.5
ARI7-10.66664.598.772.943.025.114.7
LAR7-10.62134.897.662.833.117.29.3
TB6-20.61456.893.153.927.814.27.5
DAL6-10.59594.897.757.428.713.97.1
CIN5-30.60246.079.149.326.513.96.8
TEN6-20.55396.298.065.031.914.86.6
NO5-20.59238.085.445.922.310.85.5
GB7-10.54991.597.254.524.410.54.9
BAL5-20.54036.079.443.620.39.34.0
NE4-40.57814.759.432.116.28.13.8
LV5-20.52548.674.140.018.07.93.3
DEN4-40.54817.838.719.39.04.21.8
IND4-50.5553.633.416.47.83.81.7
LAC4-30.49124.848.021.89.03.71.4
PIT4-30.47710.742.718.97.53.01.1
MIN3-40.5128.136.715.26.02.41.0
CLE4-40.5067.228.212.85.42.30.9
PHI3-50.5224.624.110.14.11.70.7
CAR4-40.5134.622.89.43.81.50.7
KC4-40.4808.922.09.33.71.50.6
SEA3-50.5240.416.87.22.91.20.5
SF3-40.4940.318.47.32.81.10.4
ATL3-40.4190.55.51.80.60.20.1
NYG2-60.4160.32.30.70.20.10.0
CHI3-50.3580.42.50.70.20.00.0
WAS2-60.3790.21.10.30.10.00.0
JAC1-60.3680.10.30.10.00.00.0
NYJ2-60.3390.10.50.10.00.00.0
MIA1-70.3450.00.10.00.00.00.0
HOU1-70.3150.10.10.00.00.00.0
DET0-80.3310.00.00.00.00.00.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona