2018-10-30

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 8, Final

Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

New England is making a run at it, but Kansas City is still my projected AFC Champion. They've got a 1 game lead, along with a higher team strength. New England did give themselves quite a boost in strength with a blowout of Buffalo, the weakest team in the league.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR8-00.66797.0899.7196.2959.7436.6121.46
KC7-10.62186.9999.0489.5851.0128.1614.68
NE6-20.59390.1095.1981.4743.5522.0510.85
NO6-10.57862.5686.6066.7734.0115.827.79
BAL4-40.62632.8561.0740.7222.0912.156.39
CHI4-30.59355.5769.5045.8623.1911.335.75
HOU5-30.56271.5577.7947.0722.2910.574.87
LAC5-20.55812.8775.0443.7020.339.684.43
CAR5-20.55232.5669.1643.4920.078.894.14
PIT4-2-10.55641.8563.1739.4718.608.733.97
WAS5-20.52863.5275.1645.6619.978.333.69
SEA4-30.5842.9255.2130.6414.157.043.51
PHI4-40.54921.8528.6115.196.723.011.40
CIN5-30.47424.9948.2723.018.853.441.29
DAL3-40.54314.6122.9912.105.242.321.06
MIN4-3-10.50419.7731.4415.366.152.491.04
GB3-3-10.50415.7127.3813.325.312.150.90
IND3-50.53114.0419.919.674.201.870.81
NYJ3-50.4854.4912.685.922.340.940.36
DET3-40.4728.9412.485.552.050.770.30
ATL3-40.4642.5012.145.551.950.730.28
MIA4-40.4165.3518.057.192.380.800.26
TEN3-40.44110.6912.995.381.900.680.24
DEN3-50.4880.138.633.771.460.590.23
TB3-40.4522.379.504.191.440.520.19
JAC3-50.4133.726.642.500.810.270.09
CLE2-5-10.4200.311.270.480.160.050.02
OAK1-60.3680.010.140.040.010.000.00
SF1-70.3900.000.040.010.000.000.00
BUF2-60.2870.070.120.030.010.000.00
NYG1-70.3890.020.030.010.000.000.00
ARI2-60.3210.000.060.020.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

2018-10-29

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 8, Sunday

Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

Another week, another win for LA and KC. Both of them are over 99% likely to make the playoffs.  I've gotten the first blank space in my numbers, indicating something never happened once in the simulations, but it's not in the table I publish here. I have some other stuff I track, like homefield advantage, or having the #1 seed. San Francisco and the New York Giants never achieved the #1 seed in my simulations, although for now I'm not allowing ties, so it's possible there's some weird scenario that would make it possible. Either way, I'm pretty sure neither 1-7 team will wind up on top of the conference. Speaking of homefield advantage, LA has a 75% shot at it in the NFC, and Kansas City is "only" at about 58%.

Also, I forgot to note when LA passed the 20% mark for championship chances, which first happened last Sunday.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR8-00.66797.0899.7196.3059.7636.6421.73
KC7-10.62186.9999.0590.3351.8929.3515.30
NO6-10.57862.5786.5666.7934.0315.837.91
NE5-20.55883.2589.5670.7035.1116.577.57
BAL4-40.62632.4861.4542.1423.4713.096.88
CHI4-30.59354.6568.8345.3622.9311.215.77
HOU5-30.56271.4177.7448.7123.8111.445.27
LAC5-20.55812.8775.3444.5421.1110.254.69
PIT4-2-10.55642.5764.3141.9420.419.694.41
CAR5-20.55232.5669.0943.4920.088.894.21
WAS5-20.52863.5375.1145.6119.958.323.74
SEA4-30.5842.9255.0930.5914.127.033.55
CIN5-30.47424.6548.2424.219.653.801.43
PHI4-40.55021.8528.5515.176.713.011.42
MIN4-3-10.50420.4132.2615.796.332.561.09
DAL3-40.54314.6122.9212.075.232.321.07
GB3-3-10.50416.2928.1513.725.472.220.94
IND3-50.53114.0219.929.864.422.000.86
NYJ3-50.4847.3414.386.892.781.130.44
DET3-40.4728.6512.105.381.990.750.30
MIA4-40.4168.6619.097.832.660.910.29
ATL3-40.4642.5012.075.521.940.720.28
TEN3-40.44111.0013.445.682.080.760.26
DEN3-50.4880.138.723.891.540.640.25
TB3-40.4522.379.444.171.430.510.19
JAC3-50.4133.576.392.480.830.280.09
CLE2-5-10.4200.301.290.500.170.060.02
BUF2-50.3200.750.960.270.070.020.00
OAK1-60.3680.010.140.050.010.000.00
SF1-70.3900.000.040.010.000.000.00
NYG1-70.3890.020.030.010.000.000.00
ARI2-60.3210.000.060.020.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

2018-10-28

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 9

This week was Alabama's turn to suffer from their bye week, as Clemson and Notre Dame both passed them up, dropping Alabama to #3. The internal scores are reasonably close though, and can be increasingly influenced each week by the performance of all the teams' previous opponents. We're down to 4 undefeated teams with South Florida's loss to Houston, my top 3 all at 8-0, and 7-0 #12 UCF.

Missouri fans were pretty high on their chances against Kentucky, but didn't really look at how this year's team is doing. The real polls had them at #12 last week, and I had them at #15. Now they've somehow jumped all the way up to #7. So much for Kentucky being a basketball school.

Now that we've covered the top, let's look at the bottom. San Jose State won a game to move to 1-7, but UTEP maintained their perfect record of futility and fell to 0-8. UTEP isn't even losing to good teams. Just for a slight hint of how bad they are, without diving into the details of my system, the scores (which determine the rank) of the bottom 5 teams are -1800, -1900, -2700, -3100, and -5600 for UTEP. That's a huge dropoff, that probably wouldn't even be made up with a single win.

1Clemson8-0
2Notre Dame8-0
3Alabama8-0
4LSU7-1
5Georgia7-1
6Michigan7-1
7Kentucky7-1
8Washington State7-1
9Oklahoma7-1
10Fresno State7-1
11Ohio State7-1
12UCF7-0
13UAB7-1
14South Florida7-1
15Utah6-2
16Cincinnati7-1
17Georgia Southern7-1
18Florida6-2
19Buffalo7-1
20Iowa6-2
21Houston7-1
22Army6-2
23North Texas7-2
24Utah State7-1
25Penn State6-2
26Washington6-3
27West Virginia6-1
28Texas6-2
29Boise State6-2
30Stanford5-3
31Syracuse6-2
32Louisiana Tech6-2
33Virginia6-2
33Boston College6-2
35San Diego State6-2
36Troy6-2
37NC State5-2
38Mississippi State5-3
39Texas A&M5-3
40Michigan State5-3
41Texas Tech5-3
42Duke5-3
43Hawai'i6-4
44Western Michigan6-3
45Miami5-3
46Coastal Carolina5-3
47Appalachian State5-2
48Florida Intl6-2
49Auburn5-3
50Oklahoma State5-3
51Northwestern5-3
52Northern Illinois5-3
53Nevada5-4
54Oregon5-3
54Maryland5-3
56Ole Miss5-3
57Temple5-3
58Wisconsin5-3
59California5-3
60Iowa State4-3
61South Carolina4-3
62Middle Tennessee5-3
63Marshall5-2
64BYU4-4
65Ohio5-3
66Colorado5-3
67Vanderbilt4-5
68USC4-4
69Pittsburgh4-4
70Eastern Michigan4-5
71Missouri4-4
72Florida State4-4
73Purdue4-4
74Arizona State4-4
75Georgia Tech4-4
76Baylor4-4
77Wake Forest4-4
78Indiana4-5
79Minnesota4-4
80Toledo4-4
81Virginia Tech4-3
82Arkansas State4-4
83Louisiana4-4
84UL Monroe4-4
85Arizona4-5
86Akron4-3
87Tennessee3-5
88TCU3-5
89Memphis4-4
90Charlotte4-4
91Kansas State3-5
92Wyoming3-6
93Tulane3-5
94UMass3-6
95Florida Atlantic3-5
96SMU3-5
97Air Force3-5
98Illinois3-5
99Miami (OH)3-5
100UCLA2-6
101Southern Mississippi3-4
102Kansas3-5
103New Mexico3-5
104Colorado State3-6
105East Carolina2-5
106Georgia State2-6
107Nebraska2-6
108Ball State3-6
109UTSA3-5
110Oregon State2-6
111South Alabama2-6
112Louisville2-6
113Navy2-6
114Arkansas2-7
115UConn1-7
116North Carolina1-6
117San Jose State1-7
118Old Dominion2-7
119New Mexico State2-7
120UNLV2-6
121Tulsa1-7
122Texas State2-6
123Central Michigan1-8
124Bowling Green1-7
125Rutgers1-7
126Rice1-8
127Kent State1-7
128Western Kentucky1-7
129UTEP0-8

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame
Week 7 Notre Dame
Week 8 Alabama

2018 World Series Projection, October 28

Boston over Los Angeles

World Series
LAD 1-3 BOS

League Championship Series
HOU 1-4 BOS
LAD 4-3 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthWin
BOS0.638288.42
LAD0.626511.58

Boston's up 3-1, and it's looking pretty likely they'll be the champs. I think I've found myself rooting more for LA when I've been watching the games, even though I have no particular allegiances to either side. I am glad to see there's a former Cardinal on each team, with David Freese in LA and Joe Kelly in Boston.

2018-10-27

2018 World Series Projection, October 27

Boston over Los Angeles

World Series
LAD 1-2 BOS

League Championship Series
HOU 1-4 BOS
LAD 4-3 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthWin
BOS0.638270.61
LAD0.626529.39

I thought about staying up and watching the end of the game, but you never know with extra innings. I gave up after 11, and I was sort of glad I did when I woke up and saw the game went 18 innings. Lost in all that is the odd move of bringing in David Price to pitch in the bottom of the 9th. He just pitched 6 innings in game 2, although only 88 pitches. After I thought about it though, it made a little bit of sense. If Boston could have won game 3, their goal then would be to win game 4 and Price would not have gotten another start. Now that LA has forced the series to at least 5 games, there's some likelihood his turn could come up again. I don't know enough about his routine to know if those 13 pitches in game 3 will affect his availability or not.

2018-10-26

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 8, Thursday

Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

Houston was favored over Miami, so their victory didn't change things by much, except for those teams and their immediate neighbors in the standings. Houston got a boost from 59% to 72% likely to win the AFC South, but the next best contender is 2-5 Indianapolis. Miami had their division chances cut from 14% to 8%, with New England far ahead and the New York Jets now slightly ahead.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR7-00.65997.4199.4895.8560.5837.9622.04
KC6-10.60877.7096.1682.5645.9124.8013.02
BAL4-30.65158.3378.9960.9436.4821.5612.26
NE5-20.55878.6087.6769.2833.9916.057.60
NO5-10.56262.5080.3161.4131.5014.617.00
HOU5-30.56272.2577.8449.4323.9511.475.48
LAC5-20.55819.7874.4546.0822.0410.585.02
CHI3-30.56528.8650.5832.5715.957.633.68
WAS4-20.51256.5367.3040.5517.847.463.21
MIN4-2-10.52333.5852.4531.5314.206.142.71
CAR4-20.52325.4051.7331.3914.106.092.69
PIT3-2-10.53024.0045.8027.0512.305.522.46
SEA3-30.5562.5940.0621.899.844.792.27
GB3-2-10.50822.2740.2422.579.654.071.73
DAL3-40.54321.4930.3317.027.783.561.64
PHI3-40.53621.4526.2514.256.422.901.32
NYJ3-40.51112.7925.0213.225.672.441.05
DET3-30.49815.3026.1113.995.822.411.01
CIN4-30.46815.8234.3716.686.552.550.99
DEN3-40.5022.4515.917.713.221.360.57
TB3-30.4557.6119.309.513.541.320.50
IND2-50.5079.1212.465.822.471.050.45
ATL3-40.4644.4914.787.082.641.020.39
MIA4-40.4167.9918.697.682.600.890.30
TEN3-40.44111.3913.965.892.140.780.28
JAC3-40.4267.2312.425.141.790.620.22
CLE2-4-10.4481.854.852.070.770.290.11
NYG1-60.4060.540.660.250.080.030.01
OAK1-50.3850.070.570.200.060.020.01
SF1-60.4010.010.380.140.040.010.00
BUF2-50.3200.620.840.240.060.020.00
ARI1-60.3290.000.050.010.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

2018-10-25

2018 World Series Projection, October 25

Boston over Los Angeles

World Series
LAD 0-2 BOS

League Championship Series
HOU 1-4 BOS
LAD 4-3 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthWin
BOS0.638282.78
LAD0.626517.22

It's now 2-0, and Boston shows no signs of slowing down. LA will have to win 2 out of 3 at home to have any chance of the title, and one fun fact I read is that no team has ever come back from down 0-3 to win the World Series, so they'd better get that first win in game 3.

2018-10-24

2018 World Series Projection, October 24

Boston over Los Angeles

World Series
LAD 0-1 BOS

League Championship Series
HOU 1-4 BOS
LAD 4-3 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthWin
BOS0.638267.95
LAD0.626532.05

With the game 1 win, Boston has a better than 2 in 3 chance of winning their first World Series since 2013, and their 4th in 15 seasons. That's not quite the best modern run ever, since New York won 4 out of 5 and 5 out of 14 starting in 1996, but still pretty good considering the parity we see now, at least among the top 20 teams or so.

2018-10-23

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 7, Final

Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

There really wasn't any significant movement last night, as the New York Giants lost to Atlanta. New York was 1-5 with a 1.7% chance at the playoffs, which dropped to 0.64%, while Atlanta went from a 3% chance at their division to 4.5%. The changes were relatively large, but in terms of the whole league, barely registered on the divisional or playoff races.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR7-00.65997.4199.4895.8360.5637.9422.16
KC6-10.60877.6595.7683.2746.9525.6613.47
BAL4-30.65058.2377.8161.0737.0722.0912.57
NE5-20.55873.5285.7768.4634.1916.297.72
NO5-10.56262.4980.3461.4231.5014.627.06
LAC5-20.55819.7672.9746.4822.4510.905.17
CHI3-30.56529.2350.7432.6515.997.653.72
WAS4-20.51256.8367.8441.0718.097.573.28
HOU4-30.52458.7162.9735.4515.867.043.10
CAR4-20.52325.4051.8331.4314.116.102.72
MIN4-2-10.52333.2251.7430.9913.966.032.69
PIT3-2-10.53023.9844.4527.1312.535.692.54
SEA3-30.5552.5940.1721.949.864.802.29
GB3-2-10.50822.0039.5622.129.463.991.72
DAL3-40.54221.0630.1216.927.733.541.64
PHI3-40.53621.5926.6514.516.542.961.35
NYJ3-40.51111.5423.5612.875.592.431.04
CIN4-30.46815.8533.2816.826.712.651.02
DET3-30.49815.5526.2614.075.862.421.02
MIA4-30.44814.4433.3816.886.332.360.87
IND2-50.50713.6115.817.493.191.370.58
DEN3-40.5022.5315.297.683.231.380.58
TB3-30.4557.6119.389.553.561.330.51
ATL3-40.4644.5014.837.102.651.020.40
TEN3-40.44116.9718.557.832.861.050.38
JAC3-40.42710.7114.456.102.140.750.26
CLE2-4-10.4481.944.772.100.800.310.11
NYG1-60.4070.520.640.250.080.030.01
OAK1-50.3850.070.500.190.060.020.01
SF1-60.4010.010.380.140.040.010.00
BUF2-50.3200.490.690.200.050.010.00
ARI1-60.3290.000.050.010.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

2018-10-22

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 7, Sunday

Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

LA won big against San Francisco and retook the title of strongest team. They're now over 99% likely to make the playoffs at 7-0. Baltimore is still the strongest AFC team because their loss was close, but being 2 full games behind Kansas City means KC is a little bit more likely to win the AFC. As I've been doing for the last few weeks, I checked in on the teams at the bottom of the chart. Arizona won the Superbowl in just 466 out of my 200,000,000 simulations. The next few weeks are when we start seeing phantom eliminations, meaning I have to run a billion simulations or more just to try to hit all possible scenarios for each team.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR7-00.65997.4199.4995.8560.5437.9122.14
KC6-10.60877.6595.7783.2746.9625.6613.46
BAL4-30.65158.2977.8461.1037.0822.1012.57
NE5-20.55873.5285.7868.4734.1916.297.72
NO5-10.56263.2180.8861.8031.7014.707.10
LAC5-20.55819.7572.9746.4722.4510.905.16
CHI3-30.56529.1151.0832.8416.077.693.74
WAS4-20.51256.3767.6240.8817.987.523.26
HOU4-30.52458.7963.0335.4815.877.043.10
CAR4-20.52325.9452.6931.9114.336.192.76
MIN4-2-10.52333.2652.1231.1914.036.062.70
PIT3-2-10.53023.9444.4527.1212.535.692.54
SEA3-30.5552.5940.7522.2610.004.872.32
GB3-2-10.50822.0840.0022.359.554.021.73
DAL3-40.54220.9930.1616.937.733.541.64
PHI3-40.53621.4426.5614.446.512.941.35
NYJ3-40.51111.5423.5712.885.592.431.04
DET3-30.49815.5626.6114.245.922.451.03
CIN4-30.46815.8233.2316.796.702.641.02
MIA4-30.44814.4533.4016.896.342.370.87
DEN3-40.5022.5315.297.683.231.380.58
IND2-50.50713.5715.767.463.181.360.58
TB3-30.4557.8019.729.693.611.350.51
TEN3-40.44116.9018.477.792.841.040.38
JAC3-40.42610.7414.506.122.150.750.26
ATL2-40.4613.0510.174.791.760.680.26
CLE2-4-10.4481.944.782.110.800.310.11
NYG1-50.4141.201.700.670.210.070.03
OAK1-50.3850.070.500.190.060.020.01
SF1-60.4010.010.400.150.040.020.00
BUF2-50.3200.490.690.200.050.010.00
ARI1-60.3290.000.050.010.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams

2018-10-21

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 8

Alabama moved to 8-0 and slipped past Notre Dame while they were on bye. Alabama is the only 8-0 team, though there are 4 7-0 teams remaining. Ohio State suffered their first loss, to fall from #4 to #8.

Missouri got a win against Memphis, a team I had ranked slightly above them (#70 vs #77) to raise themselves up to #67. Missouri was also boosted by that aforementioned Ohio State loss, which was to Purdue, one of their earlier opponents. Purdue jumped from #88 to #61.

Nebraska got a win, so there are just 2 winless teams remaining, and none from the power conferences. UTEP seems to have a stranglehold on that #129 slot.

1Alabama8-0
2LSU7-1
3Clemson7-0
4Notre Dame7-0
5Michigan7-1
6South Florida7-0
7UCF7-0
8Ohio State7-1
9Florida6-1
10Washington6-2
11Oklahoma6-1
12Buffalo7-1
13Iowa6-1
14Georgia6-1
15Kentucky6-1
16Texas6-1
17Washington State6-1
18San Diego State6-1
19Stanford5-2
20NC State5-1
21UAB6-1
22Utah5-2
23Cincinnati6-1
24North Texas6-2
25Fresno State6-1
26Georgia Southern6-1
27Utah State6-1
28Army5-2
29Texas A&M5-2
30Duke5-2
31Western Michigan6-2
32Virginia5-2
33Houston6-1
34Texas Tech5-2
35Auburn5-3
36West Virginia5-1
37Hawai'i6-3
38Penn State5-2
39Troy5-2
40Miami5-2
41Boise State5-2
42Oregon5-2
43Louisiana Tech5-2
44Wisconsin5-2
45Syracuse5-2
46Appalachian State5-1
47Ole Miss5-3
48Boston College5-2
49Temple5-3
50Colorado5-2
51Marshall5-2
52BYU4-3
53USC4-3
54Mississippi State4-3
55Florida Intl5-2
56Michigan State4-3
57Eastern Michigan4-4
58Coastal Carolina4-3
59Indiana4-4
60Virginia Tech4-2
61Purdue4-3
62Maryland4-3
63Baylor4-3
64Northern Illinois4-3
65Florida State4-3
66Arkansas State4-3
67Missouri4-3
68Northwestern4-3
69Middle Tennessee4-3
70Oklahoma State4-3
71South Carolina3-3
72Nevada4-4
73UL Monroe4-4
74Tennessee3-4
75Iowa State3-3
76California4-3
77TCU3-4
78Ohio4-3
79Vanderbilt3-5
80Wake Forest3-4
81Memphis4-4
82Arizona State3-4
83Georgia Tech3-4
84Pittsburgh3-4
85Florida Atlantic3-4
86Kansas State3-4
87Minnesota3-4
88Air Force3-4
89Southern Mississippi3-3
90SMU3-4
91Toledo3-4
92Illinois3-4
93Colorado State3-5
94Akron3-3
95New Mexico3-4
96Louisiana3-4
97Miami (OH)3-5
98UCLA2-5
99Arizona3-5
100Georgia State2-5
101Charlotte3-4
102Wyoming2-6
103Tulane2-5
104Ball State3-5
105East Carolina2-5
106UMass2-6
107Louisville2-5
108Arkansas2-6
109UTSA3-5
110South Alabama2-5
111Navy2-5
112Kansas2-5
113UConn1-6
114UNLV2-5
115Nebraska1-6
116Tulsa1-6
117New Mexico State2-6
118Old Dominion2-6
119North Carolina1-5
120Central Michigan1-7
121Oregon State1-6
122Rice1-7
123Bowling Green1-7
124Rutgers1-7
125San Jose State0-7
126Western Kentucky1-6
127Kent State1-7
128Texas State1-6
129UTEP0-7

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame
Week 7 Notre Dame

2018 World Series Projection, October 21

Boston over Los Angeles

World Series
LAD 0-0 BOS

League Championship Series
HOU 1-4 BOS
LAD 4-3 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthWin
BOS0.638252.75
LAD0.626547.25

I've got Boston just slightly favored above LA. As I'm sure you'll read multiple places, Boston beat the Brooklyn Robins in the 1916 World Series, a team that would eventually become the Brooklyn then LA Dodgers. We'll have to wait until Tuesday for the series to start, but at least it will be on network TV, and I won't have to mess around trying to get various streaming services to work.

2018-10-20

2018 World Series Projection, October 20

Boston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 1-4 BOS
LAD 3-3 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthWSWin
BOS0.6382100.0058.80
LAD0.626556.5826.74
MIL0.562743.4214.46

We're down to game 7 in the NLCS, after Milwaukee never really let game 6 be in doubt. Scoring 4 runs in the first is a good way to put your opponent back on their heels for the remainder of the game. Going to 7 games isn't going to help the winner set up their rotation for the World Series. Fortunately for them, the NL started a day earlier, because as it is, Boston will have 4 days off, compared to 2 for the NL winner.

2018-10-19

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 7, Thursday

Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams

Denver trounced Arizona, but is still only 3-4, so they didn't really mess with the end projection much. Arizona is now down to 421 Superbowl wins out of 100,000,000.

I did find a mistake I made last week, which renders my Week 6 Sunday and Monday numbers incorrect. I manually put the scores into a text file for processing, and accidentally gave Chicago 38 points (and thus a win) instead of 28 points, and the loss, against Miami. They're now properly down at 3-2, and Miami up to 4-2. I did a quick check of Monday's numbers vs what I projected with the error, and the difference wasn't huge, so I'm not going to go back and fix them, but I will keep the correct score in there going forward, and I'll check my results a little more closely against the standings in the future.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR6-00.62293.5798.1591.1753.9331.4817.61
BAL4-20.64657.7781.5467.5342.0925.9015.09
KC5-10.56168.7684.9368.0735.5717.818.82
CHI3-20.58049.7769.6950.4926.6813.677.07
NO4-10.55760.9574.8554.0827.3413.266.55
NE4-20.54849.6267.6349.8825.0012.115.84
LAC4-20.55425.9559.0539.9720.139.944.85
CIN4-20.52725.5953.7435.3116.587.843.62
DAL3-30.54935.9948.6030.1614.677.043.43
SEA3-30.5566.1245.5125.6112.196.072.99
PHI3-30.54430.2942.0025.3812.185.792.79
NYJ3-30.54822.5437.1923.6011.625.662.72
WAS3-20.50532.8950.0929.8313.155.702.52
PIT3-2-10.53014.3737.3123.2510.985.222.42
CAR3-20.51425.5443.3225.4911.475.092.30
GB3-2-10.50823.0343.8325.1711.144.892.18
MIA4-20.46926.3444.7126.5911.024.481.81
HOU3-30.49636.8640.7021.469.314.001.72
MIN3-2-10.48416.9132.9817.867.493.111.31
JAC3-30.45929.1033.0116.236.472.551.01
TEN3-30.44326.9728.9612.974.981.890.72
DET2-30.47810.2918.959.754.011.660.69
DEN3-40.5025.1013.467.213.211.420.62
TB2-30.4537.9915.587.462.871.110.44
ATL2-40.4615.5212.455.892.290.910.36
CLE2-3-10.4542.287.683.801.510.610.24
IND1-50.4537.077.513.151.230.480.19
SF1-50.4470.302.371.020.380.150.06
NYG1-50.4140.831.570.630.210.080.03
BUF2-40.3651.502.090.770.240.070.02
OAK1-50.3850.190.510.200.070.020.01
ARI1-60.3290.010.070.020.010.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams

2018 World Series Projection, October 19

Boston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 1-4 BOS
LAD 3-2 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthWSWin
BOS0.6382100.0055.38
LAD0.626581.1538.34
MIL0.562718.856.28

Boston wrapped up the ALCS, and the NLCS will finish tonight or Saturday. Boston will be favored going into the start of the World Series either way.

2018-10-18

2018 World Series Projection, October 18

Boston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 1-3 BOS
LAD 3-2 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthWSWin
HOU0.679216.2310.53
BOS0.638283.7746.39
LAD0.626581.1537.06
MIL0.562718.856.02

Boston and LA are both just one win from the World Series. Boston will get up to 3 chances, while LA has to win one of the next 2 games. The NL has a break today, but the ALCS could end as early as tonight.

2018-10-17

2018 World Series Projection, October 17

Boston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 1-2 BOS
LAD 2-2 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthWSWin
HOU0.679238.3625.93
BOS0.638261.6435.96
LAD0.626559.8226.03
MIL0.562740.1812.08

Boston blew out Houston to take over the AL lead, and LA took 13 innings to tie up the series with Milwaukee and retake the NL projection lead. Both teams go back at it tonight, and we'll have LCS games through at least Friday now.

2018-10-16

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 6, Final

Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams

At 3-2-1, Green Bay is in the middle of the pack, so they didn't change the projection very much with their win over San Francisco. They took a few percentage points off the Division title chances of Chicago, but remain below a 2% shot of winning the Super Bowl, although they've moved just ahead of Houston, 1 spot higher than before. On the other end of Monday's game, San Francisco lost one spot to fall behind Denver, down to an 0.05% chance of winning it all.

Also, yesterday I said Arizona only won the Super Bowl 416 out of 100 million times, but I was reading my raw numbers wrong. That's how many times they become the NFC #1 seed, presumably at 11-5. I showed them winning the Super Bowl 4931 times, which still displays a 0.00% in my chart.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR6-00.62293.4197.9289.6252.7630.3216.91
BAL4-20.64656.6382.7668.4542.5426.0915.08
CHI4-10.59169.6085.6368.1937.2819.4410.24
KC5-10.56169.8786.9769.9536.4418.148.90
NO4-10.55761.0674.3252.0425.7512.426.12
NE4-20.54857.1771.3152.4126.1512.636.03
LAC4-20.55428.1064.7043.8922.0210.815.23
CIN4-20.52726.1857.8037.9217.708.313.80
DAL3-30.54935.9947.9328.9613.796.583.19
NYJ3-30.54827.6140.8025.5212.526.082.90
SEA3-30.5566.2243.2724.0311.335.572.73
PIT3-2-10.53014.8241.6325.9312.175.742.64
PHI3-30.54430.3041.3224.3411.445.402.59
WAS3-20.50532.8949.1928.5312.335.312.34
CAR3-20.51425.6042.5324.2510.694.712.12
GB3-2-10.50813.6140.3922.089.574.181.85
HOU3-30.49637.9842.6322.659.784.191.78
MIN3-2-10.48410.3730.5215.896.532.701.13
JAC3-30.45928.8233.4116.506.532.571.00
MIA3-30.45113.1723.6812.364.871.900.73
TEN3-30.44326.2728.7613.034.961.880.70
DET2-30.4786.4216.328.183.321.360.56
TB2-30.4538.0215.136.992.621.010.39
ATL2-40.4615.3211.425.262.000.790.31
CLE2-3-10.4542.379.294.591.810.720.28
IND1-50.4536.937.513.141.210.470.18
DEN2-40.4321.815.442.460.920.340.13
SF1-50.4470.322.210.930.350.130.05
BUF2-40.3652.052.660.960.300.090.03
NYG1-50.4140.821.460.570.190.070.02
OAK1-50.3850.220.640.250.080.030.01
ARI1-50.3750.050.450.150.040.010.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams

2018 World Series Projection, October 16

Houston over Milwaukee

League Championship Series
HOU 1-1 BOS
LAD 1-2 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthWSWin
HOU0.679258.4840.86
BOS0.638241.5225.27
LAD0.626541.7117.33
MIL0.562758.2916.54

Milwaukee won game 3, and with a 2-1 lead is now favored in the NLCS again. LA got shut out and only managed 5 hits. However, they only allowed 7 hits for Milwaukee, those just happened to be stacked together enough to allow 4 runs as well. The ALCS resumes tonight, and we'll have 2 games a day for at least the next 2 days.

2018-10-15

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 6, Sunday

Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams

Baltimore shut out Tennessee, which in my system skyrockets your strength. They are now the strongest team, though not the most likely to make and win the Super Bowl. That title still belongs to LA, who eked out a win against Denver. However, in a head to head matchup, Baltimore would win. Hence why the matchup projection and table seem incongruous. I'm getting close to the point where I will need to start running more simulations, because today Arizona won the Superbowl in just 416 out of 100 million runs.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR6-00.62193.1297.8989.6652.8430.3616.93
BAL4-20.64656.6282.7568.4342.5426.0815.07
CHI4-10.59172.1586.3268.9337.7219.6710.36
KC5-10.56169.8786.9769.9436.4318.138.89
NO4-10.55761.0474.7752.4925.9712.536.17
NE4-20.54857.1871.3552.4626.1712.656.04
LAC4-20.55428.1164.6943.8922.0210.815.22
CIN4-20.52726.1957.7837.9017.698.313.80
DAL3-30.54935.9948.4629.3613.986.673.23
NYJ3-30.54827.6140.8325.5412.526.082.91
SEA3-30.5566.1744.2324.5411.565.682.79
PIT3-2-10.53014.8241.6025.9112.165.742.63
PHI3-30.54430.2941.8624.7211.625.492.63
WAS3-20.50532.8949.8128.9612.515.392.37
CAR3-20.51425.6143.1724.6510.864.782.15
HOU3-30.49637.9642.6122.639.774.191.78
GB2-2-10.5029.7030.4216.096.872.971.30
MIN3-2-10.48411.1231.5016.416.752.791.17
JAC3-30.45928.8333.4016.506.532.571.00
MIA3-30.45113.1723.7212.384.871.900.73
TEN3-30.44326.2828.7613.034.961.880.71
DET2-30.4787.0416.968.513.451.410.59
TB2-30.4538.0115.557.192.691.040.41
ATL2-40.4615.3411.825.452.070.810.33
CLE2-3-10.4542.379.304.591.810.720.28
IND1-50.4536.937.513.141.210.470.18
SF1-40.4510.675.242.280.850.330.13
DEN2-40.4321.815.432.460.920.340.12
BUF2-40.3652.042.660.960.300.090.03
NYG1-50.4140.821.510.600.200.070.02
OAK1-50.3850.220.640.250.080.030.01
ARI1-50.3750.040.480.160.050.020.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

2018 World Series Projection, October 15

Houston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 1-1 BOS
LAD 1-1 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthWSWin
HOU0.679258.4839.35
BOS0.638241.5224.09
LAD0.626562.2025.84
MIL0.562737.8010.72

Both series are tied 1-1, making them effectively 5 game series with reversed homefield advantage. Tonight, the NL resumes after an off day to travel to LA.

2018-10-14

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 7

Notre Dame remains #1, and Alabama has climbed to #2 despite only beating Missouri, who has fallen to #77.

Congrats to UCLA for winning a game, and to UTEP for holding that #129 slot for another week despite a bye.

1Notre Dame7-0
2Alabama7-0
3LSU6-1
4Ohio State7-0
5Clemson6-0
6Florida6-1
7Texas6-1
8Georgia6-1
9Michigan6-1
10South Florida6-0
11UCF6-0
12NC State5-0
13Cincinnati6-0
14Oklahoma5-1
15Iowa5-1
16Kentucky5-1
17Buffalo6-1
18North Texas6-1
19Washington5-2
20Duke5-1
T-21Texas A&M5-2
T-21Hawai'i6-2
23San Diego State5-1
24West Virginia5-1
25Stanford4-2
26Washington State5-1
27Oregon5-1
28Miami5-2
29Ole Miss5-2
30Troy5-2
31UAB5-1
32Fresno State5-1
33Utah4-2
34Boston College5-2
35Utah State5-1
36Colorado5-1
37Georgia Southern5-1
38Western Michigan5-2
39USC4-2
40Army4-2
41BYU4-3
42Houston5-1
43Texas Tech4-2
44Louisiana Tech4-2
45Mississippi State4-2
46Virginia4-2
47Indiana4-3
48Michigan State4-2
T-49Baylor4-3
T-49Penn State4-2
51Boise State4-2
52Maryland4-2
53Syracuse4-2
54Wisconsin4-2
55Auburn4-3
56Appalachian State4-1
57Virginia Tech4-2
58Oklahoma State4-3
59Northern Illinois4-3
60Temple4-3
61Florida Intl4-2
62Marshall4-2
63South Carolina3-3
64Tennessee3-3
65Iowa State3-3
66Wake Forest3-3
67TCU3-3
68Coastal Carolina3-3
69Minnesota3-3
70Memphis4-3
71Arizona State3-3
72Eastern Michigan3-4
73Kansas State3-4
74Vanderbilt3-4
75Florida State3-3
76Arkansas State3-3
77Missouri3-3
78Georgia Tech3-4
79Northwestern3-3
80Middle Tennessee3-3
81UL Monroe3-4
82Pittsburgh3-4
83Florida Atlantic3-3
84California3-3
85Colorado State3-4
86Ohio3-3
87Arizona3-4
88Purdue3-3
89Louisiana3-3
90Toledo3-3
91Illinois3-3
92New Mexico3-3
93Miami (OH)3-4
94Nevada3-4
95Georgia State2-4
96Tulane2-4
97Ball State3-4
98Charlotte3-3
99UTSA3-4
100Akron2-3
101SMU2-4
T-102Air Force2-4
T-102Southern Mississippi2-3
104UMass2-5
105Wyoming2-5
106East Carolina2-4
107Kansas2-4
108Louisville2-5
109Navy2-4
110UNLV2-4
111South Alabama2-5
112UCLA1-5
113UConn1-5
114Tulsa1-5
115New Mexico State2-5
116North Carolina1-4
117Arkansas1-6
118Central Michigan1-6
119Oregon State1-5
120Bowling Green1-6
121Rice1-6
122Rutgers1-6
123Western Kentucky1-5
124Old Dominion1-6
125San Jose State0-6
126Kent State1-6
127Nebraska0-6
128Texas State1-5
129UTEP0-6

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame