2017-10-19

2017 World Series Projection, October 19

Los Angeles over New York

League Championship Series
NYY 3-2 HOU
CHC 1-3 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.631291.1647.92
NYY0.621975.7337.01
HOU0.614924.2711.47
CHC0.57898.843.60

Chicago kept their series alive for another day, and will try to do the same today. Meanwhile, New York won their third game in a row to go up 3-2 after trailing 0-2.

2017-10-18

2017 World Series Projection, October 18

Los Angeles over New York

League Championship Series
NYY 2-2 HOU
CHC 0-3 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.631296.0650.87
NYY0.621951.1024.68
HOU0.614948.9022.83
CHC0.57893.941.62

LA is on the brink of a sweep, while New York tied up their series to regain a slight advantage. With pretty much everyone available for Chicago tonight we might see even more pitching changes than usual for this postseason, but LA looks unstoppable so far.

2017-10-17

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 6, Final

Kansas City over Philadelphia

Monday night games between non-contenders never affect things much. Tennessee improved to 3-3, but is still sub-.500 considering their points scored and allowed, and has a 25% chance of making the playoffs, up from 15% before the game. Meanwhile, Indianapolis dropped to 3.28% from 8.81%, but the top teams barely budged, nor did their fellow AFC South teams Jacksonville and Houston, also both 3-3.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC5-10.58074.7789.7876.2242.3223.1412.37
PHI5-10.57978.6289.6574.9041.0022.2411.87
JAC3-30.58950.0966.3448.1026.8114.808.05
LAR4-20.56950.8366.8246.9824.9213.146.88
PIT4-20.54065.4875.3752.9726.5513.096.46
MIN4-20.54644.8165.7545.7423.0511.515.76
BUF3-20.54242.0260.4141.6420.8710.345.12
SEA3-20.55241.4955.8136.7818.739.524.83
NE4-20.52241.5361.6841.4619.879.414.47
NO3-20.55034.6352.0034.5517.478.794.43
HOU3-30.55031.6147.0629.5915.117.683.87
GB4-20.52432.2854.6335.0316.747.953.80
DEN3-20.52521.0949.8731.2514.967.233.46
CAR4-20.51330.4349.5530.9414.436.703.13
ATL3-20.52425.3844.1928.2713.516.433.08
WAS3-20.50814.2139.5022.9110.514.872.25
DET3-30.52121.6334.8220.129.534.522.15
CIN2-30.50316.3728.0915.927.293.341.52
BAL3-30.47718.0833.4417.957.723.321.43
TEN3-30.46816.7325.7013.575.792.461.04
TB2-30.4949.5617.069.224.111.830.82
MIA3-20.43110.3823.1711.964.621.780.69
DAL2-30.4876.7815.067.903.481.550.68
NYJ3-30.4526.0717.468.743.551.450.59
OAK2-40.4962.7210.715.622.531.150.52
ARI3-30.4257.5911.174.961.890.730.28
LAC2-40.4661.427.543.611.520.650.27
CHI2-40.4121.282.861.210.440.160.06
IND2-40.3831.563.281.370.470.160.06
NYG1-50.4390.390.980.420.160.070.03
SF0-60.4320.090.140.060.020.010.00
CLE0-60.3800.070.100.040.010.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia

2017 World Series Projection, October 17

Los Angeles over Houston

League Championship Series
NYY 1-2 HOU
CHC 0-2 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.631287.3346.51
NYY0.621932.3615.96
HOU0.614967.6432.28
CHC0.578912.675.24

New York won their first game of the series, but still trails 2-1 in the series, and about 2:1 in the odds. The NLCS resumes today after an off day, and the ALCS continues as well.

2017-10-16

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 6, Sunday

Kansas City over Philadelphia

The races tightened a bit at the edges, with undefeated Kansas City losing to at home to Pittsburgh, and the winless Giants winning in Denver. But, the projected Superbowl matchup remains the same. I actually attended the game in Kansas City this week, my first NFL game outside of St. Louis. There was a healthy contingent of Pittsburgh fans, but the game was close and interesting enough to keep the crowd focused on that instead of hassling each other too much.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC5-10.58074.9289.9976.4642.5023.2312.42
PHI5-10.57978.6189.6474.8540.9722.2211.85
JAC3-30.58952.7467.6949.0927.3715.118.22
LAR4-20.56951.1267.1747.3225.1013.236.93
PIT4-20.54065.4775.6853.3826.7713.206.52
MIN4-20.54644.8165.7145.7023.0411.505.75
BUF3-20.54241.7760.4841.6620.8810.345.13
SEA3-20.55241.1355.6636.6918.689.494.81
NE4-20.52241.6862.0241.7220.019.474.51
NO3-20.55034.6351.9534.5017.458.784.43
HOU3-30.55032.8247.9630.1115.387.813.94
GB4-20.52432.2854.6035.0116.727.953.80
DEN3-20.52520.9249.9231.2514.967.223.46
CAR4-20.51330.4149.4930.8914.416.693.13
ATL3-20.52425.3944.1428.2413.496.423.07
WAS3-20.50814.2139.4522.8810.494.862.25
DET3-30.52121.6234.7820.089.524.512.15
CIN2-30.50316.3828.5216.207.423.391.55
BAL3-30.47718.0933.9818.267.863.381.46
TB2-30.4949.5717.059.214.101.830.82
MIA3-20.43110.4323.3912.084.671.800.69
DAL2-30.4876.7915.057.903.481.550.68
NYJ3-30.4526.1117.768.893.611.470.60
OAK2-40.4962.7410.835.682.561.160.52
TEN2-30.4439.8115.187.443.001.210.48
ARI3-30.4257.6611.335.051.920.740.28
LAC2-40.4671.427.693.691.550.660.28
IND2-30.4024.628.814.031.460.530.19
CHI2-40.4121.292.861.210.440.160.06
NYG1-50.4390.390.980.420.160.070.03
SF0-60.4320.090.140.060.020.010.00
CLE0-60.3800.070.100.040.010.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia

2017 World Series Projection, October 16

Los Angeles over Houston

League Championship Series
NYY 0-2 HOU
CHC 0-2 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.631287.3346.69
NYY0.621919.689.71
HOU0.614980.3238.34
CHC0.578912.675.27

LA took a 2-0 lead, which combined with their strength advantage, gives them about a 7 in 8 chance of advancing. The ALCS resumes tonight.

2017-10-15

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 7

No time for analysis this week, except to say Missouri dragged down Georgia because they're so bad, and Alabama takes #1.

1Alabama7-0
2Georgia7-0
3Clemson6-1
4USC6-1
5NC State6-1
6San Diego State6-1
7Penn State6-0
8TCU6-0
9Washington6-1
10Washington State6-1
11Ohio State6-1
12Wisconsin6-0
13South Florida6-0
14Miami5-0
15Michigan State5-1
16Stanford5-2
17Texas A&M5-2
18UCF5-0
19Memphis5-1
20Virginia Tech5-1
21Michigan5-1
22South Carolina5-2
23Notre Dame5-1
24Navy5-1
25Toledo5-1
26Auburn5-2
27LSU5-2
28Virginia5-1
29Oklahoma5-1
30Kentucky5-1
31Oklahoma State5-1
32Iowa4-2
33Marshall5-1
34Oregon4-3
35California4-3
36Colorado State5-2
37Boise State4-2
38Texas Tech4-2
39Wake Forest4-2
40Northern Illinois4-2
41Mississippi State4-2
42Army5-2
43Syracuse4-3
44SMU4-2
45Iowa State4-2
46North Texas4-2
47Arizona4-2
48Ohio5-2
49Houston4-2
50Western Michigan4-2
51Utah4-2
52West Virginia4-2
53Troy4-2
54Louisville4-3
55Florida Intl4-2
56Duke4-3
57Southern Mississippi4-2
58Arizona State3-3
59Wyoming4-2
60Fresno State4-2
61Colorado4-3
62Florida3-3
63Appalachian State4-2
64UCLA3-3
65UAB4-2
66Boston College3-4
67Tulane3-3
68Indiana3-3
69Purdue3-3
70Ole Miss3-3
71Maryland3-3
72Georgia Tech3-2
73Texas3-3
74Nebraska3-4
75Florida Atlantic3-3
76Northwestern3-3
77Vanderbilt3-4
78Florida State2-3
79Western Kentucky4-2
80Louisiana Tech3-3
81Minnesota3-3
82Tennessee3-3
83Georgia State3-2
84Buffalo3-4
85Kansas State3-3
86UT San Antonio3-2
87Akron3-3
88Middle Tennessee3-4
89New Mexico3-3
90Utah State3-4
91Louisiana Monroe3-3
92Temple3-4
93Louisiana3-3
94Arkansas State3-2
95Central Michigan3-4
96Arkansas2-4
97Cincinnati2-5
98Hawai'i3-4
99New Mexico State3-4
100Pittsburgh2-5
101Tulsa2-5
102Eastern Michigan2-4
103Air Force2-4
104Connecticut2-4
105Kent State2-5
106Illinois2-4
107Rutgers2-4
108South Alabama2-4
109UNLV2-4
110Old Dominion2-4
111Idaho2-4
112Ball State2-4
113Miami (OH)2-5
114Missouri1-5
115East Carolina1-6
116Oregon State1-6
117North Carolina1-6
118Nevada1-6
119Kansas1-5
120BYU1-6
121Rice1-5
122Bowling Green1-6
123Coastal Carolina1-5
124Texas State1-6
125San Jose State1-7
126Georgia Southern0-5
127Baylor0-6
128Charlotte0-7
129UTEP0-7
130UMass0-6

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia
Week 6 Georgia

2017 World Series Projection, October 15

Los Angeles over Houston

League Championship Series
NYY 0-2 HOU
CHC 0-1 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.631275.2240.22
NYY0.621919.689.99
HOU0.614980.3239.49
CHC0.578924.7810.30

No time for commentary today, but LA and Houston are both even more strongly favored than yesterday after each winning.

2017-10-14

2017 World Series Projection, October 14

Los Angeles over Houston

League Championship Series
NYY 0-1 HOU
CHC 0-0 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.631261.7932.88
NYY0.621935.7618.73
HOU0.614964.2432.62
CHC0.578938.2115.78

These series are all evenly-matched enough that the leader will always be favored, but by different amount. For example, Houston is just barely more favored than LA, even though they are up 1-0 while the NLCS has yet to begin.

2017-10-13

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 6, Thursday

Kansas City over Philadelphia

Philadelphia beat Carolina, another strong team, to solidify their spot atop the NFC. They're now nearly as likely as Kansas City to make the Superbowl, up to 22%, and the second team to cross the 90% mark to make the playoffs.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC5-00.58170.2492.5379.2744.1224.0112.91
PHI5-10.57981.1890.2575.1741.1922.4411.88
JAC3-20.60068.5878.6761.2135.2519.7911.03
GB4-10.54548.9070.4250.7725.7112.876.38
DEN3-10.54926.0965.9144.1222.1311.205.66
SEA3-20.55251.7361.7340.2520.5410.475.27
BUF3-20.54246.7161.3642.1220.9610.295.12
LAR3-20.55141.6255.7135.7718.209.264.64
DET3-20.55331.7153.7735.1717.999.174.61
ATL3-10.52836.6657.5439.3419.099.184.40
PIT3-20.52448.3558.1336.3217.318.183.93
CAR4-20.51329.0849.4930.7114.376.693.11
NE3-20.51030.6346.7829.4113.576.212.89
MIN3-20.51418.8841.8525.3411.915.582.59
NO2-20.53219.5834.3421.1810.315.012.42
BAL3-20.48333.4947.7727.0511.705.042.21
HOU2-30.52318.3731.1018.128.714.151.99
WAS2-20.50411.3631.3117.658.073.731.69
TB2-20.50414.6727.9216.337.493.431.56
CIN2-30.50317.8427.5015.547.043.191.46
NYJ3-20.46815.8830.7317.217.203.011.28
OAK2-30.4983.3018.289.754.341.970.89
DAL2-30.4877.2815.348.063.571.600.70
TEN2-30.4448.9414.447.082.851.140.46
MIA2-20.4226.7814.147.002.620.980.37
IND2-30.4034.128.263.771.370.490.18
ARI2-30.4126.217.813.221.190.440.16
LAC1-40.4660.373.931.840.760.320.14
CHI1-40.4070.511.410.580.210.080.03
SF0-50.4350.450.700.290.120.050.02
CLE0-50.4050.320.480.190.070.020.01
NYG0-50.4170.170.380.150.060.020.01

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia

2017 World Series Projection, October 13

Los Angeles over New York

League Championship Series
NYY 0-0 HOU
CHC 0-0 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.631261.7932.72
NYY0.621951.6127.02
HOU0.614948.3924.57
CHC0.578938.2115.69

Chicago pulled off the minor upset, and the NLCS is set. There's no break though, as the ALCS starts today in Houston.

2017-10-12

2017 World Series Projection, October 12

Los Angeles over New York

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 2-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
LAD0.6312100.0060.2531.90
NYY0.6219100.0051.6126.78
HOU0.6149100.0048.3924.35
WAS0.592751.4221.199.35
CHC0.578948.5818.567.62

We had a little rain in the NLDS, resulting in no new projection yesterday. Today, I feel a little shocked that Cleveland is out. Even though the series had gone to game 5, it didn't feel like they would have any trouble dispatching the Yankees. But, New York is now the favorite in the AL, though I should point out I haven't considered any homefield advantage in these games, which would tip the series slightly Houston's way. In the NL, LA will remain the favorite either way, but their opponent will be determined today in game 5.

2017-10-10

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 5, Final

Kansas City over Philadelphia

The Minnesota vs Chicago game last night didn't change anything at the top, being a division game between two teams that were in 3rd and 4th place. But, Minnesota brought their playoff chances up to 41% from 31%, and Chicago fell from 3.73% to 1.36%.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC5-00.58170.1392.5179.2344.1024.0012.98
JAC3-20.60068.5778.6761.2135.2419.7911.09
PHI4-10.57074.7282.9864.4734.6318.549.65
GB4-10.54548.8169.6950.7525.7713.026.46
DEN3-10.54926.1866.0544.2422.2011.235.70
SEA3-20.55251.7561.4440.3820.7210.635.35
BUF3-20.54246.7961.3842.1420.9610.295.15
CAR4-10.52537.9661.8642.6520.709.974.74
LAR3-20.55141.6455.2835.7918.319.374.70
DET3-20.55331.8553.1935.1618.079.284.67
ATL3-10.52832.5456.1638.3118.719.064.34
PIT3-20.52448.3458.1236.3217.308.183.95
NE3-20.51030.6846.8029.4313.576.212.91
MIN3-20.51418.8241.0825.0711.855.612.61
NO2-20.53216.8233.0020.4410.034.912.37
BAL3-20.48333.5047.7827.0511.695.042.22
HOU2-30.52318.3731.1118.138.724.152.00
WAS2-20.50415.1331.8718.338.463.921.79
TB2-20.50412.6826.7515.757.293.361.53
CIN2-30.50317.8327.4915.547.043.191.47
NYJ3-20.46815.7930.5617.097.162.991.28
OAK2-30.4983.3218.389.804.361.980.90
DAL2-30.4879.8616.528.673.881.740.76
TEN2-30.4448.9414.457.082.861.140.46
MIA2-20.4226.7414.046.942.590.970.37
IND2-30.4034.128.263.771.370.490.18
ARI2-30.4126.177.673.191.190.440.16
LAC1-40.4660.373.931.840.760.320.14
CHI1-40.4070.511.360.560.210.080.03
SF0-50.4350.450.690.290.110.050.02
NYG0-50.4170.280.450.180.070.030.01
CLE0-50.4050.320.480.190.070.020.01

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia

2017 World Series Projection, October 10

Los Angeles over Houston

Division Series
NYY 2-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 2-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
CLE0.669355.1734.6021.83
LAD0.6312100.0061.0029.86
NYY0.621944.8323.1412.06
HOU0.6149100.0042.2621.36
WAS0.592726.4410.904.39
CHC0.578973.5628.1110.50

Boston couldn't save themselves 2 days in a row, so Houston is on to the ALCS. New York did stay alive, and will go back to Cleveland to settle the series on Wednesday. In the NL, Los Angeles completed their sweep, and Chicago took a 2-1 lead. So, the only game today is Washington at Chicago.

2017-10-09

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 5, Sunday

Kansas City over Philadelphia

Even though Kansas City is the AFC favorite, Jacksonville is actually the strongest team in the NFL right now. It's still early enough in the season for those numbers to be a little uncertain, but part of the reason is the end of the Sunday night game. The game was basically over with KC leading 39-20 and just under 3 minutes to go. But, Houston scored a touchdown, then Kansas City went 3-and-out but were close enough for a field goal with a minute to go, putting them back up by 16, and then Houston threw a long jump-ball pass to the 1-yard-line and scored another Touchdown, plus a 2-point conversion. The clock was at 0:00 at that point, so there was no ensuing kickoff, which means the touchdown, and especially the 2 point conversion, were completely meaningless. As a result, the game appeared to be close despite the result never really being in question. Either way, Kansas City won, and put their playoff chances up over 90%.

In the NFC, Philadelphia won 34-7 and boosted themselves up to be the favorite to make the Superbowl. They were were also helped by a loss for Dallas, and a little bit by the Giants loss, though they are far enough out they aren't much of a factor in the NFC East.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC5-00.58170.1392.5279.2444.1024.0012.98
JAC3-20.60068.5878.6861.2335.2619.8011.09
PHI4-10.57074.5983.1564.7634.8118.649.70
GB4-10.54551.4371.0351.9126.3713.336.61
DEN3-10.54926.1866.0644.2422.2011.235.71
SEA3-20.55251.6861.8540.8120.9610.765.41
BUF3-20.54246.8061.4042.1620.9710.295.15
CAR4-10.52537.9062.3843.0420.9010.074.79
LAR3-20.55141.7355.8936.2718.579.514.77
DET3-20.55333.2653.9835.7018.359.424.74
ATL3-10.52832.7057.0438.9719.059.234.42
PIT3-20.52448.3858.1236.3117.298.183.95
NE3-20.51030.6846.8129.4313.576.212.91
NO2-20.53216.7133.5520.8010.225.002.41
BAL3-20.48333.4747.7327.0211.685.032.22
HOU2-30.52318.3631.1118.138.724.152.00
MIN2-20.50713.6731.4418.528.624.021.84
WAS2-20.50415.2432.5718.748.654.021.83
TB2-20.50412.6827.4716.197.493.461.57
CIN2-30.50317.8327.4715.527.033.191.47
NYJ3-20.46815.7830.5617.097.162.991.28
OAK2-30.4983.3218.399.814.371.980.91
DAL2-30.4879.8916.958.913.991.790.78
TEN2-30.4448.9414.457.082.851.140.46
MIA2-20.4226.7314.046.942.590.970.37
IND2-30.4034.118.263.771.370.490.18
ARI2-30.4126.157.793.251.210.450.17
LAC1-40.4660.373.931.840.760.320.14
CHI1-30.4181.633.731.650.620.240.09
SF0-50.4350.440.710.300.120.050.02
NYG0-50.4170.280.470.190.070.030.01
CLE0-50.4050.320.480.190.070.020.01

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit

2017 World Series Projection, October 9

Cleveland over Los Angeles

Division Series
NYY 1-2 CLE
BOS 1-2 HOU
ARI 0-2 LAD
CHC 1-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
CLE0.669379.9051.4632.60
LAD0.631289.9654.1825.77
NYY0.621920.1010.745.63
HOU0.614978.8831.1715.83
ARI0.597710.045.282.12
WAS0.592752.1321.888.53
CHC0.578947.8718.656.73
BOS0.575921.126.632.79

Both Boston and New York avoided elimination, so both ALDS will carry one another day, and we get 4 games again today. In addition to the AL games, Los Angeles will try to eliminate Arizona, and Chicago and Washington will break their tie.

2017-10-08

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 6

I realize there's a huge element of randomness to a college football game, but I still feel slightly vindicated when a team that I had ranked much lower than the real polls gets upset. Oklahoma was that team this week, losing from the alleged #3 spot, while I had them down at #24.

At the top of the list, the top 3 remained in order, and the next 8 all won and mostly just shuffled around, except for South Florida, who fell due to their bye week. Michigan was the top team to lose, falling to #27 and below the team that beat them, now-#19 Michigan State.

UTEP and Charlotte both lost to fall to 0-6 to match UMass, but couldn't take over the #130 spot. In happier news for 0-5 teams, Bowling Green and Nevada both won their first game of the season.

Missouri is now in that weird zone where they can gain ground even by losing, moving from #112 to #108. Keep in mind that I don't consider the score of these games, per the original BCS Computer Ranking rules, so it has nothing to do with their reasonably close loss to Kentucky (40-34). Instead, their strength of schedule was boosted enough to overcome the effects of the loss, since Kentucky is now 5-1 and #18. They'll likely get an even stronger version of the same effect next week, facing #1 Georgia. Or, maybe they'll play spoiler and pull out a win on the road, but I doubt it.

1Georgia6-0
2Clemson6-0
3Alabama6-0
4Penn State6-0
5Washington State6-0
6San Diego State6-0
7Washington6-0
8USC5-1
9NC State5-1
10TCU5-0
11Notre Dame5-1
12Ohio State5-1
13Wisconsin5-0
14Virginia Tech5-1
15Navy5-0
16Auburn5-1
17South Florida5-0
18Kentucky5-1
19Michigan State4-1
20UCF4-0
21Miami4-0
22Iowa4-2
23Texas Tech4-1
24Texas A&M4-2
25Stanford4-2
26Houston4-1
27Michigan4-1
28South Carolina4-2
29Virginia4-1
30Oregon4-2
31Memphis4-1
32Wake Forest4-2
33Oklahoma State4-1
34Toledo4-1
35Oklahoma4-1
36SMU4-2
37Louisville4-2
38Troy4-1
39Western Michigan4-2
40LSU4-2
41Duke4-2
42Utah4-1
43Marshall4-1
44Colorado State4-2
45Florida3-2
46Mississippi State3-2
47Maryland3-2
48Tulane3-2
49Army4-2
50UCLA3-2
51Boise State3-2
52California3-3
53Indiana3-2
54Ohio4-2
55Purdue3-2
56Iowa State3-2
57Vanderbilt3-3
58Texas3-2
59Southern Mississippi3-2
60Northern Illinois3-2
61Georgia Tech3-1
62North Texas3-2
63Arizona3-2
64Minnesota3-2
65Florida Atlantic3-3
66Syracuse3-3
67Temple3-3
68Nebraska3-3
69Colorado3-3
70Tennessee3-2
71Florida Intl3-2
72West Virginia3-2
73Middle Tennessee3-3
74Wyoming3-2
75Utah State3-3
76Fresno State3-2
77Kansas State3-2
78Buffalo3-3
79Appalachian State3-2
80UT San Antonio3-1
81Akron3-3
82Louisiana Monroe3-2
83Louisiana Tech3-3
84Boston College2-4
85Arizona State2-3
86UAB3-2
87New Mexico3-2
88Central Michigan3-3
89Western Kentucky3-2
90Cincinnati2-4
91Ole Miss2-3
92Arkansas2-3
93Illinois2-3
94Northwestern2-3
95Pittsburgh2-4
96Georgia State2-2
97Arkansas State2-2
98UNLV2-3
99Eastern Michigan2-3
100Florida State1-3
101Old Dominion2-3
102Louisiana2-3
103Miami (OH)2-4
104Idaho2-3
105Hawai'i2-4
106New Mexico State2-4
107Ball State2-4
108Missouri1-4
109Oregon State1-5
110Air Force1-4
111North Carolina1-5
112East Carolina1-5
113Kent State1-5
114Tulsa1-5
115Connecticut1-4
116Rutgers1-4
117BYU1-5
118Bowling Green1-5
119Kansas1-4
120Nevada1-5
121Rice1-5
122South Alabama1-4
123Coastal Carolina1-4
124Texas State1-5
125San Jose State1-6
126Georgia Southern0-4
127Baylor0-5
128Charlotte0-6
129UTEP0-6
130UMass0-6

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia

2017 World Series Projection, October 8

Cleveland over Los Angeles

Division Series
NYY 0-2 CLE
BOS 0-2 HOU
ARI 0-2 LAD
CHC 1-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
CLE0.669390.9957.7736.60
LAD0.631289.9654.1825.21
NYY0.62199.014.732.48
HOU0.614990.2934.5717.56
ARI0.597710.045.282.06
WAS0.592752.1321.888.31
CHC0.578947.8718.656.55
BOS0.57599.712.931.23

Los Angeles took a 2-0 lead and nearly joined Boston and Cleveland in the 90% range of likelihood to win their series. They're current at about 89.96%. Washington evened their series at 1-1, so that one's back to nearly a tossup. We could see both ALDS end today. If neither does, we'll get one last 4-game day on Monday.

2017-10-07

2017 World Series Projection, October 7

Cleveland over Los Angeles

Division Series
NYY 0-2 CLE
BOS 0-2 HOU
ARI 0-1 LAD
CHC 1-0 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
CLE0.669390.9957.7737.13
LAD0.631273.8544.8920.89
NYY0.62199.014.732.52
HOU0.614990.2934.5717.89
ARI0.597726.1513.915.43
WAS0.592733.4114.445.48
CHC0.578966.5926.769.39
BOS0.57599.712.931.26

Only 1 of the 4 games yesterday was an upset, and it was a slight one at that, when Chicago beat Washington. That series showed Washington with a 52% chance of winning, and now favors Chicago with 66%. Los Angeles struck first in their series against Arizona, and is now 74% likely to win that one. In the AL, both favorites took a 2-0 lead and are now 90% likely to pull out a win in the next 3 games or less to take the series.

2017-10-06

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 5, Thursday

Kansas City over Detroit

It feels weird not to have New England in my Super Bowl projection, but at just 3-2 and barely over .500 in strength, they're currently only the 7th most likely team to win the AFC. Last night's win at Tampa was not very impressive, and if not for 3 missed Field Goals may well have been a loss.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC4-00.57458.3884.4767.6736.6719.6310.68
PIT3-10.56975.0980.8159.6331.8116.739.02
BUF3-10.55259.4574.1255.4028.4114.347.48
DET3-10.55946.5968.4450.6727.1314.497.42
LAR3-10.55256.6967.7749.0525.8713.586.87
DEN3-10.54931.9667.0445.5823.0011.646.03
JAC2-20.56544.7956.7638.1119.9010.345.53
GB3-10.54138.2860.0342.1821.6611.135.50
PHI3-10.52154.9664.7944.2521.6910.585.01
ATL3-10.52836.7158.6941.4920.7610.324.96
CAR3-10.52030.2250.6834.1016.748.173.86
HOU2-20.54033.8046.9229.6814.697.253.69
SEA2-20.53628.8140.4325.9513.166.673.26
NE3-20.51026.4444.6427.5112.735.862.81
NO2-20.53219.0834.8022.3111.225.632.73
OAK2-20.5269.3837.1621.7310.364.982.47
WAS2-20.50422.1235.3021.2710.044.732.16
MIN2-20.50713.3632.6819.689.384.482.06
DAL2-20.49421.8431.8318.528.563.951.77
TB2-20.50413.9827.7116.827.983.781.73
TEN2-20.45917.7726.2613.755.672.331.00
NYJ2-20.4639.9521.8111.494.781.990.86
BAL2-20.45014.3524.7712.254.942.000.84
ARI2-20.46313.6219.5710.424.521.960.82
CIN1-30.4929.8316.078.473.781.690.78
MIA1-20.4214.179.204.341.630.610.24
IND1-30.4073.646.192.751.000.360.14
CHI1-30.4181.774.091.880.730.290.11
LAC0-40.4550.272.321.050.420.170.07
SF0-40.4400.881.660.750.310.130.05
NYG0-40.4261.081.530.660.260.100.04
CLE0-40.4180.731.460.600.220.080.03

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit

2017 World Series Projection, October 6

Cleveland over Los Angeles

Division Series
NYY 0-1 CLE
BOS 0-1 HOU
ARI 0-0 LAD
CHC 0-0 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
CLE0.669376.0849.2631.96
LAD0.631256.6034.0816.33
NYY0.621923.9212.886.95
HOU0.614974.5629.7815.60
ARI0.597743.4022.839.23
WAS0.592752.6623.459.23
CHC0.578947.3419.647.16
BOS0.575925.448.083.53

The home teams both won in the ALDS and the projection stays the same, but stronger. I've now got Cleveland nearly 50% likely to make it to the World Series. Today the NLDS begins, and both ALDS play game 2. Like I've said before, it's one of my favorite days of the year with 4 playoff games. Unfortunately didn't take the day off work to watch nothing but baseball from 1pm to midnight.

2017-10-05

2017 World Series Projection, October 5

Cleveland over Los Angeles

Division Series
NYY 0-0 CLE
BOS 0-0 HOU
ARI 0-0 LAD
CHC 0-0 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
CLE0.669359.6239.4225.57
LAD0.631256.6034.0816.90
NYY0.621940.3822.3312.06
HOU0.614957.5524.0412.59
ARI0.597743.4022.839.60
WAS0.592752.6623.459.61
CHC0.578947.3419.647.47
BOS0.575942.4514.216.20

Another day, another favorite wins. Arizona defeated Colorado, and gets to face another division rival in the NLDS. But not until tomorrow. Today, the ALDS begins. Cleveland is still the favorite overall in the AL, and Houston is 58% likely to win their series against Boston.

2017-10-04

2017 World Series Projection, October 4

Cleveland over Los Angeles

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-0 ARI

TeamStrengthLDSLCSWSWin
CLE0.6693100.0059.6239.4225.75
LAD0.6312100.0061.2136.8618.27
NYY0.6219100.0040.3822.3312.18
HOU0.6149100.0057.5524.0412.72
ARI0.597755.8524.2412.755.36
WAS0.5927100.0052.6624.249.93
CHC0.5789100.0047.3420.357.74
BOS0.5759100.0042.4514.216.28
COL0.540144.1514.555.801.76

The stronger team won as New York took Minnesota out of the playoffs in the AL Wildcard game. Since they were the stronger team, the field is now stronger, and everyone else's chances ticked down just slightly. The Yankees are right about where you'd expect them to be if all teams were evenly matched, about 1 in 4 to come out of the now-4-team AL, and about 1 in 8 to win it all.

If you're somehow obsessed with my hack of a system, (obviously more so than I am), you may notice that team strengths changed slightly. I realized I was using last year's runs per game when doing calculating those, and there was more offense this year. The effect is that strengths over .500 all go up, and those under all go down. Of course, being playoff teams, they all are above .500 and now stronger. The ultimate percentages didn't change too much, with the top 3 teams gaining no more than .21% on their World Series odds, and the bottom 7 losing no more than .07% each.

2017-10-03

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 4, Final

Kansas City over Detroit

Kansas City is back on top of the AFC and the Superbowl odds, and is the first team this year to cross the 10% mark. New England got there during Thursday of week 3 last year, so this isn't particularly early. Although, last year it took until week 5 for there to be only one undefeated team left, which was Minnesota, believe it or not. I also should note Pittsburgh was first to cross the 80% mark for making the playoffs, and did so on Sunday.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC4-00.57458.2484.8867.9736.8719.7410.74
PIT3-10.56975.1881.1360.2132.1416.919.11
BUF3-10.55264.0076.0457.0029.2214.757.70
DET3-10.55946.5967.5950.0126.7814.307.31
LAR3-10.55256.7167.3548.6025.6113.456.78
DEN3-10.54932.0668.1446.3423.3911.836.14
JAC2-20.56544.7757.3238.6520.2110.505.61
GB3-10.54138.2059.1041.4921.2910.925.40
PHI3-10.52154.9864.4443.9221.5210.514.96
ATL3-10.52834.1657.0940.1320.079.964.79
HOU2-20.54033.8247.7430.3515.027.403.77
CAR3-10.52027.9148.9232.7716.077.843.70
SEA2-20.53628.8339.9925.6112.976.573.21
TB2-10.51420.5037.8824.3811.825.712.67
NO2-20.53217.4333.2621.3010.735.372.61
OAK2-20.5269.4338.2622.3410.645.122.54
WAS2-20.50422.1034.7820.909.864.652.13
MIN2-20.50713.4332.0419.329.204.402.03
NE2-20.50120.1934.9820.609.354.232.00
DAL2-20.49421.8431.3918.238.413.891.74
TEN2-20.45917.7626.7614.105.812.391.03
NYJ2-20.46311.1023.1012.165.042.090.91
BAL2-20.45014.3025.1712.485.032.020.85
ARI2-20.46313.5719.1610.194.441.930.80
CIN1-30.4929.7916.328.623.851.720.79
MIA1-20.4214.719.834.631.730.650.25
IND1-30.4073.656.362.841.030.370.14
CHI1-30.4181.783.931.800.700.280.10
LAC0-40.4550.272.451.100.440.180.08
SF0-40.4400.881.590.720.290.120.05
NYG0-40.4261.081.480.630.250.100.04
CLE0-40.4180.731.520.630.240.090.03

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit

2017 World Series Projection, October 3

Cleveland over Los Angeles

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-0 NYY
COL 0-0 ARI

TeamStrengthLDSLCSWSWin
CLE0.6693100.0066.5644.0028.75
LAD0.6312100.0061.2136.8618.34
NYY0.621960.6724.5013.557.39
HOU0.6149100.0057.5524.7513.10
ARI0.597755.8524.2412.755.39
WAS0.5927100.0052.6624.249.99
CHC0.5789100.0047.3420.357.80
BOS0.5759100.0042.4514.796.54
COL0.540144.1514.555.801.78
MIN0.516039.338.952.900.92

Another season is in the books and the playoffs are about to begin. In case you don't recall how this works, team strength is determined by runs scored and runs allowed over the whole season, then I calculate the projected chances of winning each game and series based on that strength. Unlike my NFL projections, there are only up to 43 games (I think), and the only thing that matters in the playoffs is the series outcome, not which games were won or lost, so I calculate the chances directly instead of simulating millions of seasons.

At the start of the playoffs, I've got Cleveland favored in the AL and Los Angeles in the NL. Houston and Washington are also both in strong positions.

As I have been for many years, you should enter the 7th Annual Almost the Easiest World Series Contest on the Web at Collector's Crack. You can steal my projection, or take a random shot in the dark with probably equal odds. You've got until Sunday to enter, though, so maybe wait until a few games have passed to increase your chances.

2017-10-02

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 4, Sunday

Pittsburgh over Detroit

Pittsburgh's defense gave their strength a big boost by only allowing 9 points against Baltimore (and helped my fantasy team, too). But, Kansas City has yet to play this week, they'll face off against Washington tonight.

If you didn't see the Rams mismatched uniforms, I highly suggest you go look them up. By NFL rules they couldn't change their jerseys yet this season, but they went ahead and changed their helmets and pants to remove all gold, planning to wear their white jerseys as much as possible. Since Dallas wears white at home, the Rams were forced to wear their blue and gold jerseys, and just looked bad. Since I love chaos in sports, I'm now rooting for the Rams to make the Superbowl, and for the AFC home team to elect white jerseys.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PIT3-10.56975.3581.5461.2832.9517.529.43
KC3-00.55848.4976.3757.8930.4015.808.32
BUF3-10.55264.1276.6058.1030.0515.327.98
DET3-10.55946.6267.0549.3826.3614.057.25
LAR3-10.55256.9967.1447.9725.2113.216.73
DEN3-10.54939.0269.5148.7624.9312.696.57
JAC2-20.56544.6857.7939.3120.6910.865.79
GB3-10.54138.3058.5440.9020.9410.735.34
ATL3-10.52834.2456.4839.5619.749.794.74
PHI3-10.52148.7861.1641.5620.329.914.73
HOU2-20.54034.0048.6531.2615.607.763.94
CAR3-10.52027.9748.3632.2415.787.693.66
WAS2-10.52331.5446.9730.6815.077.383.54
SEA2-20.53628.6639.3024.9512.626.383.14
OAK2-20.52612.0740.0724.0211.595.612.77
TB2-10.51420.5237.2823.8911.555.572.62
NO2-20.53217.2732.3520.5910.345.172.53
NE2-20.50120.0335.4021.029.634.402.07
MIN2-20.50713.2931.0318.638.874.231.96
DAL2-20.49418.8128.9516.817.763.581.61
TEN2-20.45917.6927.1514.436.012.501.07
NYJ2-20.46311.1123.8712.655.312.230.96
BAL2-20.45014.1925.5512.805.212.130.89
CIN1-30.4929.7316.588.843.981.800.83
ARI2-20.46313.4818.749.864.271.850.78
MIA1-20.4214.7410.224.861.840.700.27
IND1-30.4073.636.522.941.080.400.15
CHI1-30.4181.793.841.740.680.260.10
LAC0-40.4550.412.611.190.490.200.09
SF0-40.4400.881.540.690.280.120.05
CLE0-40.4180.721.560.650.250.090.04
NYG0-40.4260.881.260.540.210.080.03

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta

2017-10-01

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 5

My rankings are getting gradually closer to the AP and coaches poll, with Clemson and Alabama rising to the #2 and #3 spots. I still insist Georgia should be #1. Part of the reason for that convergence is that each week, there will be fewer undefeated teams. We're now down to 8 5-0 teams, 6 4-0 teams, and 3 3-0 teams, for a total of 17 vs 24 last week.

At the bottom, UMass and UTEP are still the worst teams, and Bowling Green dropped just below Charlotte. UMass now has 2 weeks off due to a bye and a hurricane reschedule, so maybe one of those other teams will give them a little reprieve from being the worst.

1Georgia5-0
2Clemson5-0
3Alabama5-0
4San Diego State5-0
5Penn State5-0
6South Florida5-0
7Washington5-0
8Washington State5-0
9USC4-1
10TCU4-0
11Notre Dame4-1
12Michigan4-0
13Oregon4-1
14Texas A&M4-1
15Navy4-0
16NC State4-1
17Wisconsin4-0
18Virginia Tech4-1
19Kentucky4-1
20Ohio State4-1
21Oklahoma State4-1
22Wake Forest4-1
23Auburn4-1
24Oklahoma4-0
25SMU4-1
26Duke4-1
27Louisville4-1
28Florida3-1
29UCF3-0
30Troy4-1
31Utah4-0
32Texas Tech3-1
33Miami3-0
34UCLA3-2
35South Carolina3-2
36Mississippi State3-2
37Ohio4-1
38Iowa3-2
39California3-2
40Maryland3-1
41Stanford3-2
42Michigan State3-1
43Memphis3-1
44Marshall3-1
45Georgia Tech3-1
46Vanderbilt3-2
47Colorado3-2
48Minnesota3-1
49Toledo3-1
50Houston3-1
51Virginia3-1
52Western Michigan3-2
53Colorado State3-2
54Utah State3-2
55Florida Intl3-1
56Tennessee3-2
57North Texas3-2
58Kansas State3-1
59UT San Antonio3-0
60Nebraska3-2
61Wyoming3-2
62Buffalo3-2
63LSU3-2
64Louisiana Tech3-2
65West Virginia3-1
66Army3-2
67Tulane2-2
68Boise State2-2
69Arizona State2-3
T-70Northern Illinois2-2
T-70Purdue2-2
72New Mexico3-2
73Cincinnati2-3
74Indiana2-2
75Boston College2-3
76Pittsburgh2-3
77Ole Miss2-2
78Arkansas2-2
79Texas2-2
80Illinois2-2
81Southern Mississippi2-2
82Temple2-3
83Miami (OH)2-3
84Florida Atlantic2-3
85Iowa State2-2
86Appalachian State2-2
87Hawai'i2-3
88Fresno State2-2
89Eastern Michigan2-2
90Arizona2-2
91Old Dominion2-2
92UNLV2-2
93Northwestern2-2
94Florida State1-2
95Idaho2-2
96Louisiana Monroe2-2
97Western Kentucky2-2
98Akron2-3
99New Mexico State2-3
100Syracuse2-3
101UAB2-2
102Middle Tennessee2-3
103Ball State2-3
104Central Michigan2-3
105Arkansas State1-2
106East Carolina1-4
107North Carolina1-4
108Kent State1-4
109Georgia State1-2
110Air Force1-3
111Oregon State1-4
112Missouri1-3
113Tulsa1-4
114Connecticut1-3
115BYU1-4
116Rutgers1-4
117Louisiana1-3
118Kansas1-3
119South Alabama1-4
120Rice1-4
121Texas State1-4
122San Jose State1-5
123Coastal Carolina1-3
124Georgia Southern0-3
125Baylor0-5
126Nevada0-5
127Charlotte0-5
128Bowling Green0-5
129UTEP0-5
130UMass0-6

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia