2017-07-03

Red Cardboard's Mostly Reds Cardboard Draft, Part 2

(Part 1)

Today's cards have a lot fewer Cardinals, but I did manage one per scan.

2004 Donruss Elite Extra Edition #88 Ken Griffey, Jr.
2005 Donruss Diamond Kings - Framed Red #75 Danny Graves
2006 Topps Turkey Red - Red Parallel #355 Adam Dunn
2006 Topps Turkey Red - Red Parallel #566 Brandon Phillips
2006 Topps Turkey Red - White Parallel #355 Adam Dunn
2010 Topps 206 #233 Frank Chance
2011 Topps Update - Diamond Anniversary #US96 Ryan Hanigan
2012 Topps - Blue Border Parallel #268 Miguel Cairo
2012 Topps - Gold Sparkle #41 Devin Mesoraco
I really like Turkey Red, but I wasn't collecting when it first began, so I'm always trying to fill in gaps, and I found I actually owned no cards from the 2006 set. Also, the Cardinal I mentioned in this scan is Miguel Cairo, who was picked up by the team in August for both of his stints. Once was off waivers in 2001 and once was as a free agent after being released in 2007, so essentially the same situation. According to Baseball Reference, he's played every position except Pitcher, Catcher, and Center Field. This seems to be the first Miguel Cairo card I've ever posted.

2005 Bowman Heritage - Mini #47 Felipe Lopez
2014 Topps Mini #505 Homer Bailey
2014 Topps Mini #581 Tony Cingrani
2012 Topps Mini #135 Johnny Cueto
It's tough to tell from the scan since I didn't leave any frame of reference, but these are indeed all minis. Felipe Lopez is the Cardinal here, another guy who played for the team twice, and was picked up the first time after being released. I've only got 2 cards from the base set of Bowman Heritage, and this is my first mini.













2017-07-01

Red Cardboard's Mostly Reds Cardboard Draft, Part 1

A long, long time ago, Red Cardboard held a draft, and I received my cards, looked through them, and put them in my "to post" pile. I'm going to have to implement a queue rather than a pile, I think, or else some stuff's just going to never get posted.

As a Reds fan, most of the prizes offered were Reds, but I managed to find the former/future Cardinals in disguise, along with cards from a few sets I just like. Here are the first few cards from the results.

1970 Topps Super #31 Vada Pinson
1975 Topps #623 Rookie Infielders (Phil Garner, Keith Hernandez, Bob Sheldon, Tom Veryzer)
1977 Topps #23 Dan Driessen
1993 Denny's #22 Joe Oliver
1996 Metal Universe #149 Barry Larkin
1997 Bowman - International #76 Brett Tomko
1999 Fleer Ultra - Gold Medallion #10G Brett Tomko
1999 Fleer Ultra - Gold Medallion #146G Dmitri Young
2003 Upper Deck Victory #29 Adam Dunn

I envisioned this looking a bit more like a collage and a bit less like a poorly played round of Tetris, but what can I say? That Vada Pinson really threw off everyone else. It's got some markings on it, but it's my first card from 1970 Topps Super. Since I keep the bulk of my cards in standard sized boxes, I now even more urgently need to implement some sort of plan for oversized items, much like a library does.

Two other nice vintage cards are Keith Hernandez in his pre-mustache days, and a rough looking Dan Driessen. All 3 of the oldest cards features guys who made at least a stop with the Cardinals, along with Dmitri Young and Brett Tomko. For some reason I always think Joe Oliver was a Cardinal too, but he wasn't, and I can't figure out who I must be confusing him with.

There are plenty more, but as usual, the blogger label limit tells me when I've had enough for one day.






2017-06-26

eBay Wins #257

There's still a whole lot of 1990 cards left, and here's the smallest stack out on my table, 60 cards from Topps Traded, cut down to just the Cardinals.

1990 Topps Traded
#15T Tom Brunansky
#39T Keith Hernandez
#90T Tony Pena
#117T Bryn Smith
#122T Bob Tewksbury
#124T John Tudor
When I arranged these by number, I figured that the set was arranged by team, but then I saw Cleveland's Keith Hernandez splitting up Boston's Tom Brunansky and Tony Pena. It's alphabetical order by last name, and I just happened to get some Cardinals all between S and T. Keith Hernandez is a player I'd really like to get an autograph from, but with him having a solid job in the Mets booth, he doesn't seem to get back to St. Louis for appearances.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought5302
Total Spent$65.39
Per Card1.233 cents
Change-0.003 cents

2017-06-22

A Season Starting PWE, Part II

Way back in March, Stealing Home sent out some PWEs to celebrate the start of the season. I saw a few others post theirs at the time, but I'm just now getting to mine.

Part I

This isn't one of my giant 40-part series posts, since, after all, it was just a PWE. Today I have the vertical cards, just because that's a nice way to split up the scan.

2014 Topps #157 Matt Adams
2015 Topps #261 Lance Lynn
2015 Topps #286 Trevor Rosenthal
2016 Topps #46 Jhonny Peralta
2016 Topps #106 Jordan Walden
2016 Topps Chrome #132 Stephen Piscotty
2016 Gypsy Queen #215 Matt Adams
2017 Topps #99 Michael Wacha
The danger of waiting too long to post some cards of current players is that if your team hits a swoon, they might not all be there anymore. Matt Adams went to Atlanta when Freddie Freeman got hurt, and Jhonny Peralta was just released. Jordan Walden has been a free agent since November, so he wasn't lost specifically during this season. That shiny chrome Piscotty saves the post, though.



2017-06-20

A Season Starting PWE, Part I

Way back in March, Stealing Home sent out some PWEs to celebrate the start of the season. I saw a few others post theirs at the time, but I'm just now getting to mine.

As usual, I like to tag every Cardinal player and card set, and I just barely ran out of space, so even this PWE is getting split into 2 posts. So, today, let's see the horizontal cards.

2015 Topps #60 Michael Wacha
2016 Stadium Club #37 Yadier Molina
2017 Topps #234 Luke Weaver
I really need to get more of that Stadium Club set. I like it, even if it does look a lot like some mid 90s Fleer sets. The cards flanking that one are an interesting pair, as there's currently talk of demoting Wacha and/or bringing up Weaver to try to save this season.

2017-06-18

eBay Wins #256

Today's eBay cards are from 1990 Upper Deck. I've given up on scanning every single card, so I just picked out the Cardinals, and enough other stars to round out the scans.

1990 Upper Deck
#16 Pirates Checklist (Bobby Bonilla)
#230 Mike Gallego
#334 Rickey Henderson
#342 Jack Clark
#393 Lee Smith
#397 Terry Kennedy
Can you pick which one didn't play for the Cardinals? You probably can, it's Rickey Henderson. The Cardinals were not among his 9 teams.

1990 Upper Deck
#402 Rich Gedman
#445 Fernando Valenzuela
#584 Les Lancaster
#659 Dan Quisenberry
#689 Todd Burns
#727 Scott Hemond
Dan Quisenberry is the only uniformed Cardinal in the big stack, even though he actually spent 1990 playing for San Francisco, his final year.

The size of that stack that made me give up scanning every card was 135, all out of the penny box, for a total of $1.35.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought5242
Total Spent$64.79
Per Card1.236 cents
Change-0.006 cents

2017-06-15

Zistle Trade #31

With this trade post, I'm all caught up with Zistle, because I've been extremely inactive there for the last few months.

1992 Fleer #596 Todd Zeile
1997 SkyBox Metal Universe #230 Ron Gant
1997 SkyBox Metal Universe #231 Brian Jordan
1997 SkyBox Metal Universe #232 Ray Lankford
1997 SkyBox Metal Universe #234 Tom Pagnozzi
1997 SkyBox Metal Universe #235 Todd Stottlemyre
1998 Fleer Ultra Main Set #295 Todd Zeile
I liked the sparkly set that was 1997 Metal Universe, and bought several packs when it was new. Before this trade I only had one uniformed Cardinal, John Mabry, which came in a prize package. Now I've got 6 with the addition of these 5, leaving me Alan Benes,  Andy Benes, and Dennis Eckersley to complete the team set. I also picked up 2 Todd Zeiles, one featuring his time with the Marlins, where he arrived with a much higher-profile star, Mike Piazza. Piazza of course was quickly sent to the Mets, and Zeile would go to the Rangers at the trade deadline, and the following season, rejoin Piazza on the Mets. I guess I never realized before they played together for both of those teams and Los Angeles.



2017-06-13

2017 Stanley Cup Projection Recap

Pittsburgh managed to win a road game and took the Stanley Cup in Nashville. As is tradition, I've made a stacked graph of every playoff team's chances throughout the playoffs.



Worst position for Pittsburgh: 5.5% on April 11, at the start of the playoffs. A bit worse than a random 1 in 16 chance.

Best position for Nashville: 43.4% on May 24, after clinching their spot in the final but before Pittsburgh was in.

Best position for a Conference Finals loser: 29.3% for Anaheim on May 19, tied 2-2 with Nashville in the Western Conference Finals.

Best position for a Second Round loser: 42.1% for Washington on May 10, tied 3-3 with Pittsburgh just before their elimination, and also on April 24, when round 1 finished.

Best position for a First Round loser: Minnesota, on April 11, at the start of the playoffs. I had them projected on a relatively easy path.

Here are the full playoff results:

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Stanley Cup Final
NSH 2-4 PIT

Round 3
NSH 4-2 ANA
OTT 3-4 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

2017-06-11

eBay Wins #255

Let's see the rest of the 1990 Bowman cards. At least, the ones that survived 27 years of chewing gum.

1990 Bowman
#281 Wade Boggs
#293 Bobby Rose
#295 Lance Parrish
#320 Frank Thomas
#328 Doug Jones
#341 Brook Jacoby
#346 Steve Wapnick
#373 Bob Boone
#375 Danny Tartabull (x2)
My perception of time gets all wonky when I see guys like Bob Boone in junk era sets. It feels like he played forever ago, and also that 1990 wasn't 27 years ago. But, he did play through 1990 at age 42.


1990 Bowman
#382 George Brett
#383 Gerald Perry
#392 George Canale
#397 Darryl Hamilton
#420 Dan Gladden
#441 Mike Blowers
#445 Mike Moore (x2)
#453 Scott Hemond
#455 Felix Jose
Gerald Perry, Scott Hemond, and Felix Jose were all Cardinals, but George Brett is probably my favorite card of this scan.

1990 Bowman
#457 Rickey Henderson
#461 Walt Weiss
#468 Randy Johnson
#469 Erik Hanson
#477 Jay Buhner
#486 Nolan Ryan
#495 Geno Petralli
#518 Nelson Liriano
#524 Tony Fernandez
Nolan Ryan, Rickey Henderson, and Randy Johnson make this a formidable group. And Jay Buhner always compels me to insert this video.



1990 Bowman
#526 Checklist 133-264
Art Inserts
#1 Will Clark
#2 Mark Davis (x2)
#8 Nolan Ryan
#11 Robin Yount
I'm no art critic, and I can't tell if these art inserts are good or not. Something about them just seems off. I suppose they are good enough to get me to recognize the players, so that's good enough.

With another 35 cards for 35 cents, I've knocked down my per-card average ever-so slightly again.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought5107
Total Spent$63.44
Per Card1.242 cents
Change-0.002 cents

2017-06-09

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, June 9

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Stanley Cup Final
NSH 2-3 PIT

Round 3
NSH 4-2 ANA
OTT 3-4 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthCup
PIT0.59280.7
NSH0.53419.3

Pittsburgh looked pretty unbeatable in a 6-0 victory in game 5, but neither team has lost a home game yet, so we may well be headed for a deciding game 7 after the next one in Nashville.

2017-06-08

eBay Wins #254

Today I continue my never-ending series of cheap eBay purchases with some 1990 Bowman. A bunch of these came in still-sealed packs, with chewing gum that not only soaked into the back card, but through it and onto a second card. None of them were huge stars, so I'll probably just toss the damaged ones.

1990 Bowman
#3 Andy Nezelek
#12 Lonnie Smith
#18 Jim Presley
#39 Andre Dawson
#44 Danny Jackson
#55 Todd Benzinger
#60 Ken Griffey (x2)
#72 Gerald Young
#75 Dave Rohde
I liked that for 1990 Bowman made the names more readable than 1989, though just barely. Lonnie Smith, Danny Jackson, and Gerald Young all played for the Cardinals.

1990 Bowman
#84 Orel Hershiser (x2)
#92 Jose Offerman
#96 Tom Goodwin
#99 Kal Daniels
#111 Dennis Martinez
#122 Frank Viola
#129 Terry Bross
#132 Mike Marshall
#140 Gregg Jefferies
Gregg Jefferies is the only Cardinal in this scan.

1990 Bowman
#146 Roger McDowell
#149 Jeff Parrett
#156 Ricky Jordan
#159 Tom Herr
#180 Gary Redus
#192 Ray Lankford
#198 Vince Coleman
#199 Paul Coleman
#201 Pedro Guerrero
I also enjoy a set that's numbered by team, making it an easy choice how to sort it, and giving me a solid block of Cardinals with Ray Lankord, Vince Coleman, Paul Coleman, and Pedro Guerrero. Tom Herr and Jeff Parrett also played for St. Louis.

1990 Bowman
#219 Mike Pagliarulo
#239 Ernie Riles
#246 Curt Schilling
#247 Pete Harnisch
#264 Mike Rochford
#265 Jeff Reardon
#266 Wes Gardner
#273 Kevin Romine
#278 Greg Blosser
To finish off this post, a scan with no Cardinals, but a nice old Curt Schilling card.


I won't count the 10 gum-damanged cards in my count, but I also don't count their cost since I bought a big box for less than a penny per card. That puts me at a level 38 cents for 38 cards.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought5072
Total Spent$63.09
Per Card1.244 cents
Change-0.002 cents

2017-06-06

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, June 6

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Stanley Cup Final
NSH 2-2 PIT

Round 3
NSH 4-2 ANA
OTT 3-4 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthCup
PIT0.59261.1
NSH0.53438.9

Home ice advantage strikes again, and Nashville and Pittsburgh are now tied. The series is now effectively a Best of 3, with Pittsburgh getting game 1 and a potential game 3 at home.

2017-06-04

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, June 4

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Stanley Cup Final
NSH 1-2 PIT

Round 3
NSH 4-2 ANA
OTT 3-4 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthCup
PIT0.59277.0
NSH0.53423.0

Nashville won their first game of the Final as the series moved to their home ice. Pittsburgh remains in the lead, 2-1, and with a 77% chance of winning the series.

2017-06-01

A 100th Post Celebration Contest

To celebrate 100 posts, there's a contest going on at A Cracked Bat.

But you had better go enter fast. The deadline is 10pm EST on June 2.

The prize is effectively a box of random cards, but promised not to be "junk", so throw in your name and hope for the best out of the randomizer.

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, June 1

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Stanley Cup Final
NSH 0-2 PIT

Round 3
NSH 4-2 ANA
OTT 3-4 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthCup
PIT0.59286.8
NSH0.53413.2

Every June, it just strikes me as odd that hockey extends this far in the year. Perhaps if the Blues made the finals now and then it wouldn't seem as strange. Pittsburgh took a 2-0 lead, scoring 4 unanswered goals after allowing Nashville to score first, and now have almost an 87% chance of winning the cup.

2017-05-30

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 30

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Stanley Cup Final
NSH 0-1 PIT

Round 3
NSH 4-2 ANA
OTT 3-4 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthCup
PIT0.59275.9
NSH0.53424.1

When they took a 3-0 lead, I thought Pittsburgh might run away with game 1 and the series, but Nashville worked their way back to tie the game 3-3, and we had a late-game deciding goal. Pittsburgh still won, and now have a 76% chance of winning the cup.

2017-05-28

Birthday Cards

Today is not my birthday. Nor was it within the last month. For privacy reasons I never like to say exactly when stuff like that is, but suffice it to say my lack of organization of my "to post" cards has gotten out of control, and I spotted a pack I got quite awhile ago, for my birthday. Enough self-flagellation, let's see some cards!


2016 Bowman Platinum
#14 Evan Longoria
#43 Zack Greinke
#65 Nomar Mazara
#83 Salvador Perez
#89 J.D. Martinez
Bowman's Next Generation #NG-20 Sean Manaea
As you can see, I got a pack of 2016 Bowman Platinum. An excellent choice, somewhat counter-intuitively, because I don't usually buy the more expensive sets. That means it's practically guaranteed to be all new cards to me.

2016 Bowman Platinum
#TP-DP David Paulino
#TP-JR Jomar Reyes
#TP-LW Luke Weaver
#TP-MD Mauricio Dubon
#TP-SG Stone Garrett
Bowman's Next Generation Prospects #NGP-17 Tyler Jay
The gift-giver is a Cardinals fan, but doesn't know a lot of players on other teams, and so was excited to see the Luke Weaver card. That's probably my favorite too, but as with any relatively new Bowman product, maybe some of the prospects will turn into huge stars.

2017-05-26

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 26

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Stanley Cup Final
NSH 0-0 PIT

Round 3
NSH 4-2 ANA
OTT 3-4 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthCup
PIT0.59264.0
NSH0.53436.0

It took a second OT period, but the Eastern Conference was decided, and Pittsburgh is the favorite to win the cup at the start of the finals, at 64%. But, Nashville's been outplaying these numbers for much of the playoffs, so who knows what will happen.

2017-05-24

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 24

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 3
NSH 4-2 ANA
OTT 3-3 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
NSH0.534100.043.4
PIT0.59264.441.2
OTT0.49535.615.3

With Pittsburgh losing game 6 to Ottawa, Nashville's the overall favorite, but the most likely matchup and result combination is still Pittsburgh over Nashville (as compared to Nashville over Pittsburgh, Nashville over Ottawa, or Ottawa over Nashville). It doesn't feel like Pittsburgh should be struggling so much in this series, so I'm starting to lean toward Nashville in the finals.

2017-05-23

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 23

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 3
NSH 4-2 ANA
OTT 2-3 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59283.953.7
NSH0.534100.039.3
OTT0.49516.16.9

Nashville finished off their series to clinch their spot in the finals, for the first time in franchise history. Pittsburgh's still the overall favorite to win the cup, but they'll need to win another game against Ottawa to get to the finals first.

2017-05-22

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 22

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 3
NSH 3-2 ANA
OTT 2-3 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59283.952.8
NSH0.53473.228.8
ANA0.55426.811.8
OTT0.49516.16.6

I'm not sure how a team ever comes back from a 7-0 loss, but Ottawa will have to win their very next game (and the next one) to advance. Pittsburgh is now 84% likely to win that series, and over the 50% mark for winning the Cup.

2017-05-21

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 21

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 3
NSH 3-2 ANA
OTT 2-2 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59266.641.9
NSH0.53473.231.5
OTT0.49533.413.8
ANA0.55426.812.9

Nashville won to go up 3-2, and I'm too busy for even my minimal commentary today. Happy Sunday!

2017-05-20

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 20

Pittsburgh over Anaheim

Round 3
NSH 2-2 ANA
OTT 2-2 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59266.641.1
ANA0.55455.526.7
NSH0.53444.519.1
OTT0.49533.413.1

The projection changes again, as Pittsburgh tied the series against Ottawa. I only saw part of the game, but saw the highlights on the evening news, and at the end of the package the sportscaster said that Pittsburgh won it to go up 3-1. I did a double take, and immediately looked up the results online, thinking I had somehow messed up by listing Ottawa as up 2-1 after game 3. Of course, as it turns out he was just wrong. I think he was a little thrown off by the Cardinals updates that seemed to be getting added to his highlights package in real time since the game was rain delayed and still going on.

2017-05-19

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 19

Anaheim over Ottawa

Round 3
NSH 2-2 ANA
OTT 2-1 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
ANA0.55455.529.3
PIT0.59246.728.9
NSH0.53444.521.0
OTT0.49553.320.8

Nashville forced OT but Anaheim scored first to win it, and are back on top of the projection. Pittsburgh should take back over with a win tonight, or else fall behind 3-1 and have quite a deficit to dig themselves out of.

2017-05-18

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 18

Nashville over Ottawa

Round 3
NSH 2-1 ANA
OTT 2-1 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
NSH0.53465.931.0
PIT0.59246.729.3
OTT0.49553.321.6
ANA0.55434.118.1

Ottawa scored 4 goals in the first period, defeating Pittsburgh 5-1, and making their way into the position of Eastern Conference favorite for the first time during these playoffs. I can't tell you how many times during the past two months I've double checked that their strength number should indeed be below .500, but it's correct. They allowed 214 goals this year, while only scoring 212, putting them just a little under .500 when the formula is applied.

2017-05-17

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 17

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 3
NSH 2-1 ANA
OTT 1-1 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59265.941.3
NSH0.53465.928.4
ANA0.55434.116.5
OTT0.49534.113.8

Here's an interesting little quirk. To the third decimal place, Pittsburgh and Nashville are equally likely to win their series. This despite Pittsburgh being tied 1-1, while Nashville took a 2-1 lead. This, of course, is because Pittsburgh's strength far outstrips Ottawa, while Nashville is actually weaker than Anaheim.

2017-05-16

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 16

Pittsburgh over Anaheim

Round 3
NSH 1-1 ANA
OTT 1-1 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59265.940.8
ANA0.55451.825.0
NSH0.53448.220.8
OTT0.49534.113.4

Pittsburgh won game 2 and is back to a 66% chance of winning the series. Now both series are tied 1-1, with home ice advantage effectively swapped to the other team. 

2017-05-15

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 15

Pittsburgh over Anaheim

Round 3
NSH 1-1 ANA
OTT 1-0 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59253.633.2
ANA0.55451.826.6
NSH0.53448.222.0
OTT0.49546.418.3

Anaheim evened up the series, and the mostly likely projection is now Pittsburgh over Anaheim, but each series is just about as close to being a tossup as they can be.

2017-05-14

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 14

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 3
NSH 1-0 ANA
OTT 1-0 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59253.633.5
NSH0.53461.928.3
ANA0.55438.119.5
OTT0.49546.418.7

Ottawa has a 1-0 lead, but Pittsburgh is still slightly favored in that series due to their high strength, so today's projection doesn't change. Anaheim can re-take the Western conference lead by tying up their series today, or Nashville can take a commanding 2-0 lead.

2017-05-13

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 13

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 3
NSH 1-0 ANA
OTT 0-0 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59271.644.8
NSH0.53461.926.0
ANA0.55438.117.8
OTT0.49528.411.4

Nashville took a 1-0 lead and flipped the Western conference in their favor with a road victory. Pittsburgh remains favored to win, up to 45% with the ostensibly weaker Nashville now leading.

2017-05-11

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 11

Pittsburgh over Anaheim

Round 3
NSH 0-0 ANA
OTT 0-0 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59271.644.2
ANA0.55455.926.2
NSH0.53444.118.5
OTT0.49528.411.1

Pittsburgh finally finished off Washington, and Anaheim beat Edmonton, and the Conference Finals are set. Pittsburgh and Anaheim are favored in their respective series, setting up a 44% chance of the first back-to-back champion since 1998.

2017-05-10

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 10

Washington over Nashville

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-3 ANA
PIT 3-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67663.754.542.1
PIT0.59236.326.015.7
NSH0.534100.041.913.1
EDM0.57647.228.611.3
ANA0.55452.829.510.5
OTT0.495100.019.57.4

Ottawa has advanced, though they're only 19.5% likely to beat the winner of Washington and Pittsburgh. They'll play tonight, along with Edmonton and Anaheim, and the Conference finals will be set.

2017-05-09

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 9

Washington over Nashville

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-3 ANA
PIT 3-3 WSH
NYR 2-3 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67663.751.940.2
PIT0.59236.324.014.5
NSH0.534100.041.912.9
EDM0.57647.228.611.2
ANA0.55452.829.510.3
NYR0.57533.311.06.0
OTT0.49566.713.04.9

The only game yesterday was Washington evening up their series with Pittsburgh and forcing a game 7. They're now back on top of the East, with over a 50% chance of beating both Pittsburgh and their next opponent.


2017-05-08

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 8

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-3 ANA
PIT 3-2 WSH
NYR 2-3 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.59265.643.426.2
WSH0.67634.428.121.7
NSH0.534100.041.914.7
EDM0.57647.228.612.7
ANA0.55452.829.511.8
NYR0.57533.312.87.0
OTT0.49566.715.75.9

St. Louis is out, and Edmonton and Anaheim will have to play game 7 after another 2 day break. Nashville is now the favorite in the West, mostly by virtue of being the only team into the third round so far. Both Edmonton and Anaheim would be favored over Nashville.


2017-05-07

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 7

Pittsburgh over Anaheim

Round 2
NSH 3-2 STL
EDM 2-3 ANA
PIT 3-2 WSH
NYR 2-3 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.59265.643.426.4
WSH0.67634.428.121.8
ANA0.55473.040.716.2
NSH0.53474.932.111.3
EDM0.57627.016.37.2
NYR0.57533.312.87.1
OTT0.49566.715.76.0
STL0.53725.110.94.0

Ottawa took a 3-2 lead over New York, and Washington stayed alive against Pittsburgh, so both series will have at least one more game. Today either Western Conference series could end, or be extended to game 7.

2017-05-06

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 6

Pittsburgh over Anaheim

Round 2
NSH 3-2 STL
EDM 2-3 ANA
PIT 3-1 WSH
NYR 2-2 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.59278.048.429.4
ANA0.55473.040.716.8
NYR0.57559.424.113.4
WSH0.67622.017.213.4
NSH0.53474.932.111.6
EDM0.57627.016.37.5
STL0.53725.110.94.0
OTT0.49540.610.33.9

Anaheim took a lead in their series after being down 2-0, and Nashville failed to eliminate St. Louis, so Anaheim is now the favorite in the West. St. Louis looked dominant in at least the 3rd period, which is all I got to watch, so hopefully they can carry that forward to Sunday. Tonight, Pittsburgh will try to eliminate Washington, and New York and Ottawa will untie their 2-2 series.

2017-05-05

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 5

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 2
NSH 3-1 STL
EDM 2-2 ANA
PIT 3-1 WSH
NYR 2-2 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.59278.048.429.1
EDM0.57650.830.714.0
WSH0.67622.017.213.3
NYR0.57559.424.113.2
NSH0.53486.136.013.0
ANA0.55449.227.511.3
OTT0.49540.610.33.8
STL0.53713.95.92.2

New York evened their series with Ottawa at 2-2. After a bunch of extra days off scattered in, we're back to both Western conference series playing on the same day, so today the Blues will try to survive to play game 6, while Edmonton will be playing to overtake the Western Conference lead, at least by my numbers.

2017-05-04

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 4

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 2
NSH 3-1 STL
EDM 2-2 ANA
PIT 3-1 WSH
NYR 1-2 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.59278.050.330.3
EDM0.57650.830.714.2
WSH0.67622.017.613.6
NSH0.53486.136.013.2
ANA0.55449.227.511.5
NYR0.57543.917.89.7
OTT0.49556.114.25.3
STL0.53713.95.92.2

Pittsburgh took over the East with a win over Washington, and Edmonton ceded the West to Nashville by losing to Anaheim, so both teams in my projection changed. St. Louis gets another unnecessary 2 day break, so tonight only New York and Ottawa will play, bringing all series to 4 games completed.

2017-05-03

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 3

Washington over Edmonton

Round 2
NSH 3-1 STL
EDM 2-1 ANA
PIT 2-1 WSH
NYR 1-2 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67645.536.528.0
PIT0.59254.535.120.9
EDM0.57672.143.618.4
NSH0.53486.135.111.7
NYR0.57543.916.08.6
ANA0.55427.915.65.9
OTT0.49556.112.44.5
STL0.53713.95.72.0

Washington and Edmonton were both idle and remained at the top of their respective conferences. St. Louis is now down 3-1 and only 2% likely to win the cup, while New York won to pull themselves back into their series with Ottawa.

2017-05-02

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 2

Washington over Edmonton

Round 2
NSH 2-1 STL
EDM 2-1 ANA
PIT 2-1 WSH
NYR 0-2 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67645.537.228.5
PIT0.59254.536.221.5
EDM0.57672.143.518.4
NSH0.53468.427.99.3
NYR0.57531.711.56.2
ANA0.55427.915.55.9
OTT0.49568.315.15.5
STL0.53731.613.14.5

Washington avoided falling behind 3-0, and is now interestingly the Eastern Conference favorite again, while only being 45% likely to win their current series. That seems to be because they'd be massively favored over Ottawa, who is currently up 2-0 against New York. That series will continue tonight, along with St. Louis vs Nashville.

2017-05-01

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 1

Pittsburgh over Edmonton

Round 2
NSH 2-1 STL
EDM 2-1 ANA
PIT 2-0 WSH
NYR 0-2 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.59269.946.527.7
EDM0.57672.143.519.6
WSH0.67630.124.618.8
NSH0.53468.427.910.0
NYR0.57531.712.46.7
ANA0.55427.915.56.3
OTT0.49568.316.56.0
STL0.53731.613.14.8

I think I jinxed the Blues yesterday, and they not only lost, but are now the least likely remaining team to win the cup. Anaheim won their game to avoid going down 3-0, but Edmonton is still the Western Conference favorite. Tonight, instead of two games, we only have one, I guess so everyone can write their columns about Washington choking if they fall behind 0-3. To me it's no failure to lose to the defending champs, but that doesn't seem to be a popular opinion.

2017-04-30

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 30

Pittsburgh over Edmonton

Round 2
NSH 1-1 STL
EDM 2-0 ANA
PIT 2-0 WSH
NYR 0-2 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.59269.946.527.5
EDM0.57685.151.323.1
WSH0.67630.124.618.8
NSH0.53451.320.67.4
STL0.53748.719.97.3
NYR0.57531.712.46.6
OTT0.49568.316.55.9
ANA0.55414.98.33.4

A team can only fall so far behind and still be the favorite, and Washington finally breached that point, down 2-0 to Pittsburgh. They're still the second favorite in the East, and third overall. Ottawa's trying to climb up the charts, also up 2-0, but despite being 68% favorites to beat New York, they're still behind them in overall chances.

Today the West plays, and hopefully the Blues can work their pack to the top half of the chart.

2017-04-29

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 29

Washington over Edmonton

Round 2
NSH 1-1 STL
EDM 2-0 ANA
PIT 1-0 WSH
NYR 0-1 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67652.141.431.6
EDM0.57685.151.321.0
PIT0.59247.930.418.0
NYR0.57550.117.69.4
NSH0.53451.320.66.6
STL0.53748.719.96.5
OTT0.49549.910.63.8
ANA0.55414.98.33.0

St. Louis evened their series with Nashville, and Edmonton took a 2-0 lead over Anaheim. Despite that, Edmonton is still behind Washington, a team down 1-0, in overall cup chances. That's how off the charts Washington is this year. I was looking forward to 4 games today, the way baseball does it, but I forgot the NHL playoffs take a day off or more after each game. So, we'll get the two Eastern conference games tonight

2017-04-28

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 28

Washington over Edmonton

Round 2
NSH 1-0 STL
EDM 1-0 ANA
PIT 1-0 WSH
NYR 0-1 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67652.141.431.8
PIT0.59247.930.418.1
EDM0.57669.742.117.2
NYR0.57550.117.69.5
NSH0.53465.126.68.5
ANA0.55430.316.96.2
STL0.53734.914.54.8
OTT0.49549.910.63.9

Even though Washington lost last night, they're still favored in their series against Pittsburgh, and favored to win the cup. In the other series, Ottawa is just under 50% likely to win, even with their 1-0 lead against New York. Tonight, the Western conference resumes its semifinals.

2017-04-27

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 27

Washington over Edmonton

Round 2
NSH 1-0 STL
EDM 1-0 ANA
PIT 0-0 WSH
NYR 0-0 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67670.354.641.9
EDM0.57669.742.115.9
NYR0.57565.520.911.3
PIT0.59229.718.110.8
NSH0.53465.126.67.8
ANA0.55430.316.95.7
STL0.53734.914.54.3
OTT0.49534.56.42.3

The second round has kicked off, and both road teams won game 1 in the West, and both Nashville and Edmonton are over 65% likely to win. Tonight the Eastern Conference semifinals start.

2017-04-24

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 24

Washington over Edmonton

Round 2
NSH 0-0 STL
EDM 0-0 ANA
PIT 0-0 WSH
NYR 0-0 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67670.354.642.1
EDM0.57653.232.012.1
NYR0.57565.520.911.4
PIT0.59229.718.110.9
ANA0.55446.826.08.8
STL0.53752.222.16.6
NSH0.53447.819.95.8
OTT0.49534.56.42.4

The US and Canadian capital cities both finished off their series, and we've got round 2 all lined up. No series in round 1 went to 7 games, but thanks to staggering the games, there will only be 2 off days before games resume Wednesday

2017-04-23

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 23

Washington over Edmonton

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-3 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-3 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67688.562.247.937.0
EDM0.576100.053.232.012.7
PIT0.592100.034.020.412.3
NYR0.575100.062.121.111.5
ANA0.554100.046.826.09.2
STL0.537100.052.222.17.0
NSH0.534100.047.819.96.1
BOS0.54930.413.94.12.0
OTT0.49569.624.04.91.8
TOR0.51811.53.71.50.6

Three games finished three series on Saturday, as St. Louis, New York, and Edmonton all advanced. Edmonton is also the new Western Conference favorite. The last two series could end today, or we could have one or two game 7s, which I assume would be on Tuesday after a day off Monday.