2017-12-15

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 15, Thursday

Philadelphia over Jacksonville

Usually on a single-game day like Thursday or Monday, when I say that the game had little effect, it means the projection didn't change. In this case, the game between two eliminated teams, Denver and Indianapolis, changed hardly anything. The biggest effect was that Kansas City's division chances dropped by less than 0.5%, while LA gained most of that drop and Oakland got about .03%. At first I figured that must represent the rare cases where Denver finishes 7-9 along with Kansas City and LA, changing the tiebreaker to a 3-team version and negatively impacting Kansas City. But, Kansas City plays LA this week, which will give at least one more than Denver's best-possible record of 7 wins. Instead, it just reflects that Denver's win makes them a bit stronger, so their week 17 game against Kansas City is slightly more likely to be a win.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI11-20.748++++99.8562.7337.2621.18
JAC9-40.75192.0199.9685.4151.8732.1418.10
NE10-30.70799.3899.9588.5148.1626.1613.29
LAR9-40.71773.8693.0461.3833.3217.409.21
MIN10-30.65699.2499.8891.0243.6018.988.74
PIT11-20.640++++94.9746.7619.988.66
NO9-40.69066.0594.7757.5628.0413.776.84
BAL7-60.648-80.7040.5718.788.423.71
LAC7-60.66744.7152.1029.9514.376.693.09
CAR9-40.58019.6779.1735.2312.664.761.82
KC7-60.57754.5867.6732.7112.644.701.74
SEA8-50.62826.1448.9622.929.274.011.72
ATL8-50.57114.2858.6423.608.093.031.13
TEN8-50.4567.9963.9019.665.541.500.40
DET7-60.5160.4215.105.071.390.480.16
BUF7-60.3890.6228.066.671.550.350.07
DAL7-60.543-4.841.730.520.190.07
GB7-60.4650.345.581.640.390.110.03
OAK6-70.4160.711.690.500.120.030.01
MIA6-70.331-5.871.030.200.040.01
NYJ5-80.408-0.080.020.000.000.00
CIN5-80.393-0.030.010.000.000.00
ARI6-70.322-0.010.000.000.000.00
HOU4-90.457------
TB4-90.401------
WAS5-80.390------
CHI4-90.382------
DEN5-90.342------
SF3-100.321------
NYG2-110.252------
CLE0-130.233------
IND3-110.228------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville

2017-12-12

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 14, Final

Philadelphia over Jacksonville

New England took a surprising loss to Miami, and Jacksonville is back in the favorite spot for the AFC. My Pittsburgh-fan friend surmised that they would now be able to clinch homefield advantage if they beat New England next week, since at best New England could tie them at 12-4 but then lose in the head-to-head tiebreaker, so I checked it out. The hitch in his plan is Jacksonville, who could also still get to 12-4, and beat Pittsburgh this year. In the event all 3 teams finished tied, the head-to-head sweep would not apply, but Jacksonville would be one finish with an AFC record of 10-2 vs 9-3 for the other two.

Houston is officially eliminated with that Miami win, since at least one of Buffalo or Miami will have to finish with under 9 losses, along with New England in the AFC East, and in the AFC South Jacksonville and Tennessee will also have less than 9 losses. That means at least 3 teams that don't win their division will be ahead of Houston in the wildcard race, eliminating them.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI11-20.748++++99.8562.7237.2621.18
JAC9-40.75192.0199.9685.4051.8832.1518.11
NE10-30.70799.3899.9588.4948.1726.1713.29
LAR9-40.71773.8693.0461.3833.3317.409.21
MIN10-30.65699.2499.8891.0243.6018.988.74
PIT11-20.640++++94.9646.7819.998.67
NO9-40.69066.0694.7757.5628.0313.776.84
BAL7-60.648-79.9040.1718.598.333.68
LAC7-60.66744.3051.8629.8414.326.673.08
CAR9-40.58019.6779.1735.2212.664.761.82
KC7-60.57755.0268.4933.1612.814.761.77
SEA8-50.62826.1448.9722.929.284.011.73
ATL8-50.57114.2858.6423.608.083.031.13
TEN8-50.4567.9964.1119.755.561.510.40
DET7-60.5160.4215.105.071.390.480.16
BUF7-60.3890.6228.086.691.560.350.08
DAL7-60.543-4.841.730.520.190.07
GB7-60.4650.345.581.640.390.110.03
OAK6-70.4160.681.680.490.120.030.01
MIA6-70.331-5.861.030.200.040.01
NYJ5-80.408-0.080.020.000.000.00
CIN5-80.393-0.030.010.000.000.00
ARI6-70.322-0.010.000.000.000.00
HOU4-90.457------
TB4-90.401------
WAS5-80.390------
CHI4-90.382------
DEN4-90.321------
SF3-100.321------
NYG2-110.252------
IND3-100.251------
CLE0-130.233------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England

2017-12-11

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 14, Sunday

Philadelphia over New England

First, two teams clinched their division, and both are from the state of Pennsylvania. That's a pretty meaningless connection in the NFL, but it's all I've got today.

We've got a slightly odd sight at the top of the chart here, with New England favored to win the AFC, even though Jacksonville is the stronger team and more likely to win the Superbowl. This is because Jacksonville is a much stronger team by the numbers, and would win a much higher percentage of its Superbowl matchups, while New England is in excellent position for a first round bye and therefore gets the benefit of a "first round success" projection of 100%. Also, New England plays its 13th game on Monday, so everyone will be back to the same number of games played after tonight.

At the bottom, I show Houston as eliminated. Every official source I see shows them with some chance of making the playoffs. They won't, but I like to tease out the unlikely scenarios it would take, especially when my simulations don't hit one in over 2 billion tries.

First, Houston has to finish 7-9. At best, that will have them finishing third in the division, which simplifies the picture a little bit. The only way for a third place team to make the playoffs is for the second place team to also make it, so we have to assume no one but division winners or Jacksonville and Tennessee will exceed 7 wins in the AFC.

Buffalo and Baltimore both already have 7 wins, so they'd have to lose all 3 of the rest of their games. Two of Buffalo's games are against Miami, which also gives them 7 wins, and forces them to lose to Kansas City and New England (So this could all be moot tonight). That puts Kansas City at 8 wins in the AFC West, which means that 7-win LA must also lose their remaining 3 games. One of those losses is to Oakland, giving them 7 wins, so they have to lose their other 2 games.

That gives us at least a 6-way tie at 7-9, and a quick 10 million simulations still show no chance of a Houston playoff appearance. Some combination of Denver, Cincinnati, and New York could join the group of tied teams, but I still don't show it happening. That means I have a tiebreaker coded wrong, I've made some bad assumption about which games need to go which way, or some specific game needs to end it a tie to get the strength of schedule or strength of victory just right. I suppose I'll root for Houston to stay alive as long as possible so I can sort it out.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI11-20.748++++99.8562.7237.2621.13
JAC9-40.75192.0199.9779.3647.8529.1716.43
NE10-20.71499.9099.9995.8454.6929.9915.48
LAR9-40.71773.8693.0461.3833.3317.409.18
MIN10-30.65699.2499.8891.0243.6018.988.71
PIT11-20.640++++94.4545.0619.448.43
NO9-40.69066.0694.7757.5628.0313.776.82
BAL7-60.648-79.5739.6818.118.153.60
LAC7-60.66744.0651.8429.7014.166.583.04
CAR9-40.58019.6779.1735.2212.664.761.82
KC7-60.57755.2769.2533.3512.814.741.76
SEA8-50.62826.1448.9822.929.284.011.72
ATL8-50.57114.2858.6423.608.093.031.13
TEN8-50.4567.9967.1420.185.631.530.41
DET7-60.5160.4215.105.071.390.480.15
BUF7-60.3890.1028.976.701.520.340.07
DAL7-60.543-4.841.730.520.190.07
GB7-60.4650.345.581.640.390.110.03
OAK6-70.4160.671.570.460.110.030.01
MIA5-70.319-1.510.240.040.010.00
NYJ5-80.408-0.130.030.010.000.00
CIN5-80.393-0.060.010.000.000.00
ARI6-70.322-0.010.000.000.000.00
HOU4-90.457------
TB4-90.401------
WAS5-80.390------
CHI4-90.382------
DEN4-90.321------
SF3-100.321------
NYG2-110.252------
IND3-100.251------
CLE0-130.233------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England

2017-12-10

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 15

Usually this week brings almost no change to my rankings, and that's pretty much true again this year. Army beat Navy to move both teams a little bit, and affect other teams' strengths of schedule just a little. Unfortunately, I discovered ESPN had a bad game result in week 12 at the time that I pulled their data, which I noticed because I had Navy with an extra win. Ultimately, my tp 14 is the same as last week, so the overall effect wasn't too disruptive. Fixing that game bumps Notre Dame up 10 spots to #25, pushes Memphis behind TCU, and the rest of the top 28 stay the same.

1Georgia12-1
2Clemson12-1
3UCF12-0
4Wisconsin12-1
5Oklahoma12-1
6Alabama11-1
7USC11-2
8Ohio State11-2
9Toledo11-2
10Miami10-2
11Auburn10-3
12Penn State10-2
13Washington10-2
14Florida Atlantic10-3
15Notre Dame9-3
16Boise State10-3
17TCU10-3
18Memphis10-2
19San Diego State10-2
20Stanford9-4
21Michigan State9-3
22Washington State9-3
23Virginia Tech9-3
24Troy10-2
25LSU9-3
26Northwestern9-3
27NC State8-4
28Oklahoma State9-3
29North Texas9-4
30South Carolina8-4
31Army9-3
32South Florida9-2
33Mississippi State8-4
34Fresno State9-4
35Michigan8-4
36Louisville8-4
37Boston College7-5
38Iowa7-5
39Northern Illinois8-4
40Wake Forest7-5
41Arizona State7-5
42Florida Intl8-4
43Oregon7-5
44Texas A&M7-5
45Central Michigan8-4
46Iowa State7-5
47Ohio8-4
48Kentucky7-5
49Southern Mississippi8-4
50SMU7-5
51Arizona7-5
52Houston7-4
53Kansas State7-5
54West Virginia7-5
55Missouri7-5
56UCLA6-6
57Appalachian State8-4
58Akron7-6
59Marshall7-5
60UAB8-4
61Navy6-6
62Florida State6-6
63Texas Tech6-6
64Ole Miss6-6
65Duke6-6
66Utah6-6
67Purdue6-6
68Wyoming7-5
69Virginia6-6
70Texas6-6
71Western Michigan6-6
72Colorado State7-5
73Georgia Tech5-6
74Temple6-6
75Arkansas State7-4
76Buffalo6-6
77Louisiana Tech6-6
78California5-7
79Tulane5-7
80UT San Antonio6-5
81Utah State6-6
82Pittsburgh5-7
83Middle Tennessee6-6
84Vanderbilt5-7
85Indiana5-7
86Georgia State6-5
87Syracuse4-8
88Minnesota5-7
89Colorado5-7
90Western Kentucky6-6
91Florida4-7
92Maryland4-8
93Air Force5-7
94New Mexico State6-6
95Eastern Michigan5-7
96Miami (OH)5-7
97Nebraska4-8
97Arkansas4-8
99Old Dominion5-7
100Tennessee4-8
101UNLV5-7
102Cincinnati4-8
103Rutgers4-8
104Louisiana5-7
105North Carolina3-9
106Louisiana Monroe4-8
107East Carolina3-9
108Idaho4-8
109South Alabama4-8
110BYU4-9
111UMass4-8
112Connecticut3-9
113Nevada3-9
114New Mexico3-9
115Hawai'i3-9
116Bowling Green2-10
117Kent State2-10
118Tulsa2-10
119Coastal Carolina3-9
120Illinois2-10
121Ball State2-10
122Georgia Southern2-10
123Oregon State1-11
124Baylor1-11
125Kansas1-11
126San Jose State2-11
127Charlotte1-11
128Texas State2-10
129Rice1-11
130UTEP0-12

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia
Week 6 Georgia
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Georgia
Week 10 Georgia
Week 11 Alabama
Week 12 Alabama
Week 13 Wisconsin
Week 14 Georgia

2017-12-08

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 14, Thursday

Philadelphia over New England

Thursday's game was pretty low-leverage this week, affecting no one other than the teams involved more than a fraction of a percent. New Orleans lost, dropping their playoff chances from 98% to just under 96%, while Atlanta's win bumped them from 34% up to 55%. Carolina took the brunt of the damage from that, falling from 68% to 60%, although their division odds almost doubled from 5.55% to 10.98%. I'm not sure I've ever seen that happen to any team as a result of a single game before.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI10-20.74299.9599.9892.1453.5231.0117.47
NE10-20.71499.9399.9997.0356.8331.3316.08
JAC8-40.74275.5799.6778.3446.7027.8815.30
LAR9-30.73174.5597.9171.8738.8021.6311.90
MIN10-20.67299.8499.9695.2948.4621.6910.42
PIT10-20.64697.0899.9991.1544.8219.898.68
NO9-40.69072.8895.7457.2727.4913.346.67
BAL7-50.6572.9290.0149.7022.9810.764.83
SEA8-40.64125.4571.4133.3314.276.182.77
LAC6-60.63239.1341.9522.059.604.171.76
CAR8-40.56710.9860.4823.188.222.921.09
KC6-60.55549.6053.7424.208.703.111.08
ATL8-50.57116.1455.3521.257.592.731.03
TEN8-40.46824.4385.8529.248.362.360.64
DET6-60.5110.089.683.000.920.290.09
OAK6-60.43911.2712.564.271.110.290.07
DAL6-60.5040.054.181.260.390.120.04
BUF6-60.3820.0713.923.410.740.170.04
GB6-60.4530.085.181.360.340.090.02
NYJ5-70.456-1.040.320.090.030.01
CIN5-70.454-0.560.170.050.010.00
MIA5-70.319-0.700.120.020.000.00
WAS5-70.421-0.120.030.010.000.00
HOU4-80.476-0.020.010.000.000.00
ARI5-70.322-0.030.000.000.000.00
TB4-80.408-0.000.000.000.000.00
CHI3-90.328------
SF2-100.305------
DEN3-90.291-0.000.00---
NYG2-100.288------
IND3-90.272-0.000.000.000.00-
CLE0-120.245------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England

2017-12-05

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 13, Final

Philadelphia over New England

With 2.1 billion simulations I managed to fill out the grid with each non-eliminated team succeeding at least once. 13 teams are eliminated from their divisions, with Cincinnati joining the 12 that were eliminated before Monday's game. Pittsburgh joined the top teams at 10-2, but is the weakest of those teams. The big game for AFC seeding purposes seems to be shaping up to be Pittsburgh vs New England in week 15.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI10-20.74299.9599.9990.2852.4230.2617.05
NE10-20.71499.9399.9997.0356.8331.3316.08
JAC8-40.74275.5899.6778.3446.6927.8815.30
LAR9-30.73174.5598.4571.5538.6821.4911.82
MIN10-20.67299.8499.9693.6447.2721.2110.18
PIT10-20.64697.0899.9991.1544.8219.898.68
NO9-30.68988.6898.4465.6331.5915.327.65
BAL7-50.6572.9290.0449.7222.9910.764.83
SEA8-40.64125.4575.7334.0014.586.342.84
LAC6-60.63239.1441.9722.069.604.171.76
CAR8-40.5675.5568.0725.058.913.181.19
KC6-60.55649.6053.7524.208.703.111.08
TEN8-40.46824.4285.8829.248.362.360.64
ATL7-50.5645.7634.1412.554.401.560.58
DET6-60.5110.0812.333.761.150.360.12
OAK6-60.43911.2712.564.271.110.290.07
DAL6-60.5040.055.591.650.510.150.05
BUF6-60.3820.0713.843.390.740.170.03
GB6-60.4530.086.971.810.460.120.03
NYJ5-70.456-1.040.320.090.030.01
CIN5-70.454-0.560.160.050.010.00
WAS5-70.421-0.270.060.020.000.00
MIA5-70.319-0.700.120.020.000.00
HOU4-80.476-0.020.010.000.000.00
ARI5-70.322-0.050.010.000.000.00
TB4-80.408-0.000.000.000.000.00
DEN3-90.291-0.000.000.000.000.00
IND3-90.272-0.000.000.000.000.00
CHI3-90.328------
SF2-100.305------
NYG2-100.288------
CLE0-120.245------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England

2017-12-04

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 13, Sunday

Philadelphia over New England

Philadelphia lost on Sunday night, so as of now no one has clinched a division or wildcard spot yet. A total of 12 teams have been eliminated from their division, but only 4 are completely out of the playoffs. Denver is the one team still mathematically alive that never made it during any of my simulations this week.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI10-20.74299.9599.9990.2852.4330.2617.05
NE10-20.71499.9399.9997.2857.6231.6616.25
JAC8-40.74275.5899.6580.5948.8529.1115.98
LAR9-30.73174.5598.4671.5738.7021.5011.82
MIN10-20.67299.8499.9693.5947.2421.1910.17
PIT9-20.63990.4399.7986.1441.2318.077.76
NO9-30.68988.6998.4565.6431.5915.327.65
BAL7-50.6579.5488.5250.0823.0910.844.87
SEA8-40.64125.4575.7634.0214.596.352.84
LAC6-60.63239.1441.7822.039.564.171.76
CAR8-40.5675.5568.0925.068.923.181.19
KC6-60.55649.6053.6324.248.693.121.09
TEN8-40.46824.4285.8230.518.732.460.67
ATL7-50.5645.7634.1612.564.411.560.58
DET6-60.5110.0812.233.731.140.350.11
OAK6-60.43911.2612.444.261.110.290.07
DAL6-60.5040.055.591.650.510.150.05
BUF6-60.3820.0713.403.350.720.160.03
GB6-60.4530.086.991.810.460.120.03
CIN5-60.4610.023.241.080.290.090.02
NYJ5-70.456-1.010.310.090.020.01
WAS5-70.421-0.280.060.020.000.00
MIA5-70.319-0.720.130.020.000.00
HOU4-80.476-0.020.010.000.000.00
ARI5-70.322-0.050.010.000.000.00
TB4-80.408-0.000.000.000.000.00
CHI3-90.328------
SF2-100.305------
DEN3-90.291------
NYG2-100.288------
IND3-90.272-0.000.000.000.00-
CLE0-120.245------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England

2017-12-03

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 14

We're sort of at the end of the regular season, at least for FBS teams not named Army and Navy. One of these years one of the service academies is going to be a solid #4 team and really confound the committee about whether they should include them in the playoff, or enact some emergency policy change of waiting until all the games are actually complete before declaring the playoff field.

There was really only one big loss by my rankings, Wisconsin losing to Ohio State, to no longer be undefeated. If you went by the real rankings, some top-tier losses were unavoidable due to top teams vying for the conference titles, such as Clemson-Miami, and Georgia-Auburn. If I were making the bracket, we'd have Georgia hosting Wisconsin, and Clemson hosting University of Central Florida in the semi-finals. Instead, the committee skipped over my #3 and #4 teams, and bumped Georgia down to #3. So Clemson gets Alabama, and Georgia is the designated road team against Oklahoma. UCF is the only remaining undefeated team, and to me that means they should get a playoff spot. They can't have performed any better than they did unless you're looking at individual game scores and stats, so to deny them a playoff spot seems to be to admit that some teams start the season without a chance.

Missouri wasn't in any conference title game, but the 2 SEC teams in the playoff gave them a boost up to a bigger bowl, The Texas Bowl, against Texas. Seems like a hostile game environment to me, but I'll take it.

UTEP remains at the bottom, with obviously none of those teams playing this week. It's possible some FCS results over the next few weeks will cause a little jitter and bump them above Rice, and I'll be the first and only one to report it if it does.

1Georgia12-1
2Clemson12-1
3UCF12-0
4Wisconsin12-1
5Oklahoma12-1
6Alabama11-1
7USC11-2
8Ohio State11-2
9Toledo11-2
10Miami10-2
11Auburn10-3
12Penn State10-2
13Washington10-2
14Florida Atlantic10-3
15Boise State10-3
16Memphis10-2
17TCU10-3
18San Diego State10-2
19Stanford9-4
20Michigan State9-3
21Washington State9-3
22Virginia Tech9-3
23Troy10-2
24LSU9-3
25Notre Dame8-4
26Northwestern9-3
27NC State8-4
28Oklahoma State9-3
29South Carolina8-4
30North Texas9-4
31South Florida9-2
32Mississippi State8-4
33Fresno State9-4
34Michigan8-4
35Louisville8-4
36Boston College7-5
37Iowa7-5
38Northern Illinois8-4
39Army8-3
40Navy7-4
41Wake Forest7-5
42Arizona State7-5
43Florida Intl8-4
44Oregon7-5
45Texas A&M7-5
46Central Michigan8-4
47Iowa State7-5
48Kentucky7-5
49Ohio8-4
50SMU7-5
51Southern Mississippi8-4
52Houston7-4
53Arizona7-5
54Kansas State7-5
55West Virginia7-5
56Missouri7-5
57UCLA6-6
58Appalachian State8-4
59Akron7-6
60Marshall7-5
61UAB8-4
62Florida State6-6
63Texas Tech6-6
64Ole Miss6-6
65Utah6-6
66Purdue6-6
67Duke6-6
68Wyoming7-5
69Virginia6-6
70Texas6-6
71Western Michigan6-6
72Colorado State7-5
73Temple6-6
74Georgia Tech5-6
75Arkansas State7-4
76Louisiana Tech6-6
77Buffalo6-6
78Tulane5-7
79California5-7
80UT San Antonio6-5
81Utah State6-6
82Pittsburgh5-7
83Vanderbilt5-7
84Middle Tennessee6-6
85Indiana5-7
86Georgia State6-5
87Syracuse4-8
88Minnesota5-7
89Colorado5-7
90Western Kentucky6-6
91Florida4-7
92Air Force5-7
93Maryland4-8
94New Mexico State6-6
95Eastern Michigan5-7
96Miami (OH)5-7
97Nebraska4-8
98Arkansas4-8
99Old Dominion5-7
100Cincinnati4-8
101Tennessee4-8
102UNLV5-7
103Rutgers4-8
104Louisiana5-7
105North Carolina3-9
106Louisiana Monroe4-8
107East Carolina3-9
108Idaho4-8
109BYU4-9
110South Alabama4-8
111UMass4-8
112Connecticut3-9
113Nevada3-9
114New Mexico3-9
115Hawai'i3-9
116Bowling Green2-10
117Kent State2-10
118Tulsa2-10
119Coastal Carolina3-9
120Illinois2-10
121Ball State2-10
122Georgia Southern2-10
123Oregon State1-11
124Baylor1-11
125Kansas1-11
126San Jose State2-11
127Charlotte1-11
128Texas State2-10
129Rice1-11
130UTEP0-12

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia
Week 6 Georgia
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Georgia
Week 10 Georgia
Week 11 Alabama
Week 12 Alabama
Week 13 Wisconsin

2017-12-01

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 13, Thursday

Philadelphia over New England

Dallas beat Washington to stay alive in the NFC East, and keep Philadelphia from clinching until at least Sunday night. New York is obviously already eliminated with 9 losses, and Washington was already out, but very clearly is now with 7 losses. Everyone else stays pretty much where they were, including Chicago who is unlikely enough to make the playoffs that there weren't enough simulations to find one where they make it to the Superbowl.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI10-10.74799.9899.9996.9660.5836.4822.10
NE9-20.67697.9299.8595.1554.6729.2314.03
JAC7-40.70778.4798.1277.8245.3326.5913.72
LAR8-30.70781.4495.1865.8334.9318.2410.16
PIT9-20.64094.5999.7790.1546.8822.519.91
MIN9-20.65697.6499.2785.7842.3818.659.32
NO8-30.67367.0393.8358.3627.7713.226.85
BAL6-50.6145.3675.8540.3518.008.223.40
CAR8-30.59025.1480.5838.5714.725.712.46
KC6-50.57168.0774.8938.4015.466.322.35
LAC5-60.61025.7137.1219.378.543.851.58
SEA7-40.61218.4344.8320.248.053.381.53
ATL7-40.5717.8349.6621.087.392.811.16
DET6-50.5542.2127.4510.433.441.280.51
TEN7-40.44621.0561.3221.186.211.860.49
BUF6-50.4252.0835.7311.623.180.900.22
DAL6-60.5040.025.201.680.500.160.06
OAK5-60.4256.207.982.780.760.210.05
CIN5-60.4610.055.441.890.560.180.05
HOU4-70.4960.482.570.950.320.110.03
GB5-60.4410.153.030.840.190.050.02
NYJ4-70.4400.000.780.240.070.020.01
WAS5-70.421-0.250.060.010.000.00
TB4-70.4190.000.250.060.010.000.00
ARI5-60.3500.130.490.110.020.000.00
MIA4-70.2810.000.520.090.020.000.00
DEN3-80.3350.020.050.010.000.000.00
IND3-80.3060.000.030.010.000.000.00
CHI3-80.335-0.000.000.00--
SF1-100.311------
NYG2-90.303------
CLE0-110.267------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England