2017-05-24

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 24

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 3
NSH 4-2 ANA
OTT 3-3 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
NSH0.534100.043.4
PIT0.59264.441.2
OTT0.49535.615.3

With Pittsburgh losing game 6 to Ottawa, Nashville's the overall favorite, but the most likely matchup and result combination is still Pittsburgh over Nashville (as compared to Nashville over Pittsburgh, Nashville over Ottawa, or Ottawa over Nashville). It doesn't feel like Pittsburgh should be struggling so much in this series, so I'm starting to lean toward Nashville in the finals.

2017-05-23

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 23

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 3
NSH 4-2 ANA
OTT 2-3 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59283.953.7
NSH0.534100.039.3
OTT0.49516.16.9

Nashville finished off their series to clinch their spot in the finals, for the first time in franchise history. Pittsburgh's still the overall favorite to win the cup, but they'll need to win another game against Ottawa to get to the finals first.

2017-05-22

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 22

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 3
NSH 3-2 ANA
OTT 2-3 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59283.952.8
NSH0.53473.228.8
ANA0.55426.811.8
OTT0.49516.16.6

I'm not sure how a team ever comes back from a 7-0 loss, but Ottawa will have to win their very next game (and the next one) to advance. Pittsburgh is now 84% likely to win that series, and over the 50% mark for winning the Cup.

2017-05-21

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 21

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 3
NSH 3-2 ANA
OTT 2-2 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59266.641.9
NSH0.53473.231.5
OTT0.49533.413.8
ANA0.55426.812.9

Nashville won to go up 3-2, and I'm too busy for even my minimal commentary today. Happy Sunday!

2017-05-20

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 20

Pittsburgh over Anaheim

Round 3
NSH 2-2 ANA
OTT 2-2 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59266.641.1
ANA0.55455.526.7
NSH0.53444.519.1
OTT0.49533.413.1

The projection changes again, as Pittsburgh tied the series against Ottawa. I only saw part of the game, but saw the highlights on the evening news, and at the end of the package the sportscaster said that Pittsburgh won it to go up 3-1. I did a double take, and immediately looked up the results online, thinking I had somehow messed up by listing Ottawa as up 2-1 after game 3. Of course, as it turns out he was just wrong. I think he was a little thrown off by the Cardinals updates that seemed to be getting added to his highlights package in real time since the game was rain delayed and still going on.

2017-05-19

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 19

Anaheim over Ottawa

Round 3
NSH 2-2 ANA
OTT 2-1 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
ANA0.55455.529.3
PIT0.59246.728.9
NSH0.53444.521.0
OTT0.49553.320.8

Nashville forced OT but Anaheim scored first to win it, and are back on top of the projection. Pittsburgh should take back over with a win tonight, or else fall behind 3-1 and have quite a deficit to dig themselves out of.

2017-05-18

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 18

Nashville over Ottawa

Round 3
NSH 2-1 ANA
OTT 2-1 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
NSH0.53465.931.0
PIT0.59246.729.3
OTT0.49553.321.6
ANA0.55434.118.1

Ottawa scored 4 goals in the first period, defeating Pittsburgh 5-1, and making their way into the position of Eastern Conference favorite for the first time during these playoffs. I can't tell you how many times during the past two months I've double checked that their strength number should indeed be below .500, but it's correct. They allowed 214 goals this year, while only scoring 212, putting them just a little under .500 when the formula is applied.

2017-05-17

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 17

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 3
NSH 2-1 ANA
OTT 1-1 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59265.941.3
NSH0.53465.928.4
ANA0.55434.116.5
OTT0.49534.113.8

Here's an interesting little quirk. To the third decimal place, Pittsburgh and Nashville are equally likely to win their series. This despite Pittsburgh being tied 1-1, while Nashville took a 2-1 lead. This, of course, is because Pittsburgh's strength far outstrips Ottawa, while Nashville is actually weaker than Anaheim.

2017-05-16

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 16

Pittsburgh over Anaheim

Round 3
NSH 1-1 ANA
OTT 1-1 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59265.940.8
ANA0.55451.825.0
NSH0.53448.220.8
OTT0.49534.113.4

Pittsburgh won game 2 and is back to a 66% chance of winning the series. Now both series are tied 1-1, with home ice advantage effectively swapped to the other team. 

2017-05-15

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 15

Pittsburgh over Anaheim

Round 3
NSH 1-1 ANA
OTT 1-0 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59253.633.2
ANA0.55451.826.6
NSH0.53448.222.0
OTT0.49546.418.3

Anaheim evened up the series, and the mostly likely projection is now Pittsburgh over Anaheim, but each series is just about as close to being a tossup as they can be.

2017-05-14

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 14

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 3
NSH 1-0 ANA
OTT 1-0 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59253.633.5
NSH0.53461.928.3
ANA0.55438.119.5
OTT0.49546.418.7

Ottawa has a 1-0 lead, but Pittsburgh is still slightly favored in that series due to their high strength, so today's projection doesn't change. Anaheim can re-take the Western conference lead by tying up their series today, or Nashville can take a commanding 2-0 lead.

2017-05-13

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 13

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 3
NSH 1-0 ANA
OTT 0-0 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59271.644.8
NSH0.53461.926.0
ANA0.55438.117.8
OTT0.49528.411.4

Nashville took a 1-0 lead and flipped the Western conference in their favor with a road victory. Pittsburgh remains favored to win, up to 45% with the ostensibly weaker Nashville now leading.

2017-05-11

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 11

Pittsburgh over Anaheim

Round 3
NSH 0-0 ANA
OTT 0-0 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59271.644.2
ANA0.55455.926.2
NSH0.53444.118.5
OTT0.49528.411.1

Pittsburgh finally finished off Washington, and Anaheim beat Edmonton, and the Conference Finals are set. Pittsburgh and Anaheim are favored in their respective series, setting up a 44% chance of the first back-to-back champion since 1998.

2017-05-10

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 10

Washington over Nashville

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-3 ANA
PIT 3-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67663.754.542.1
PIT0.59236.326.015.7
NSH0.534100.041.913.1
EDM0.57647.228.611.3
ANA0.55452.829.510.5
OTT0.495100.019.57.4

Ottawa has advanced, though they're only 19.5% likely to beat the winner of Washington and Pittsburgh. They'll play tonight, along with Edmonton and Anaheim, and the Conference finals will be set.

2017-05-09

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 9

Washington over Nashville

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-3 ANA
PIT 3-3 WSH
NYR 2-3 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67663.751.940.2
PIT0.59236.324.014.5
NSH0.534100.041.912.9
EDM0.57647.228.611.2
ANA0.55452.829.510.3
NYR0.57533.311.06.0
OTT0.49566.713.04.9

The only game yesterday was Washington evening up their series with Pittsburgh and forcing a game 7. They're now back on top of the East, with over a 50% chance of beating both Pittsburgh and their next opponent.


2017-05-08

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 8

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-3 ANA
PIT 3-2 WSH
NYR 2-3 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.59265.643.426.2
WSH0.67634.428.121.7
NSH0.534100.041.914.7
EDM0.57647.228.612.7
ANA0.55452.829.511.8
NYR0.57533.312.87.0
OTT0.49566.715.75.9

St. Louis is out, and Edmonton and Anaheim will have to play game 7 after another 2 day break. Nashville is now the favorite in the West, mostly by virtue of being the only team into the third round so far. Both Edmonton and Anaheim would be favored over Nashville.


2017-05-07

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 7

Pittsburgh over Anaheim

Round 2
NSH 3-2 STL
EDM 2-3 ANA
PIT 3-2 WSH
NYR 2-3 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.59265.643.426.4
WSH0.67634.428.121.8
ANA0.55473.040.716.2
NSH0.53474.932.111.3
EDM0.57627.016.37.2
NYR0.57533.312.87.1
OTT0.49566.715.76.0
STL0.53725.110.94.0

Ottawa took a 3-2 lead over New York, and Washington stayed alive against Pittsburgh, so both series will have at least one more game. Today either Western Conference series could end, or be extended to game 7.

2017-05-06

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 6

Pittsburgh over Anaheim

Round 2
NSH 3-2 STL
EDM 2-3 ANA
PIT 3-1 WSH
NYR 2-2 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.59278.048.429.4
ANA0.55473.040.716.8
NYR0.57559.424.113.4
WSH0.67622.017.213.4
NSH0.53474.932.111.6
EDM0.57627.016.37.5
STL0.53725.110.94.0
OTT0.49540.610.33.9

Anaheim took a lead in their series after being down 2-0, and Nashville failed to eliminate St. Louis, so Anaheim is now the favorite in the West. St. Louis looked dominant in at least the 3rd period, which is all I got to watch, so hopefully they can carry that forward to Sunday. Tonight, Pittsburgh will try to eliminate Washington, and New York and Ottawa will untie their 2-2 series.

2017-05-05

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 5

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 2
NSH 3-1 STL
EDM 2-2 ANA
PIT 3-1 WSH
NYR 2-2 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.59278.048.429.1
EDM0.57650.830.714.0
WSH0.67622.017.213.3
NYR0.57559.424.113.2
NSH0.53486.136.013.0
ANA0.55449.227.511.3
OTT0.49540.610.33.8
STL0.53713.95.92.2

New York evened their series with Ottawa at 2-2. After a bunch of extra days off scattered in, we're back to both Western conference series playing on the same day, so today the Blues will try to survive to play game 6, while Edmonton will be playing to overtake the Western Conference lead, at least by my numbers.

2017-05-04

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 4

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 2
NSH 3-1 STL
EDM 2-2 ANA
PIT 3-1 WSH
NYR 1-2 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.59278.050.330.3
EDM0.57650.830.714.2
WSH0.67622.017.613.6
NSH0.53486.136.013.2
ANA0.55449.227.511.5
NYR0.57543.917.89.7
OTT0.49556.114.25.3
STL0.53713.95.92.2

Pittsburgh took over the East with a win over Washington, and Edmonton ceded the West to Nashville by losing to Anaheim, so both teams in my projection changed. St. Louis gets another unnecessary 2 day break, so tonight only New York and Ottawa will play, bringing all series to 4 games completed.

2017-05-03

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 3

Washington over Edmonton

Round 2
NSH 3-1 STL
EDM 2-1 ANA
PIT 2-1 WSH
NYR 1-2 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67645.536.528.0
PIT0.59254.535.120.9
EDM0.57672.143.618.4
NSH0.53486.135.111.7
NYR0.57543.916.08.6
ANA0.55427.915.65.9
OTT0.49556.112.44.5
STL0.53713.95.72.0

Washington and Edmonton were both idle and remained at the top of their respective conferences. St. Louis is now down 3-1 and only 2% likely to win the cup, while New York won to pull themselves back into their series with Ottawa.

2017-05-02

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 2

Washington over Edmonton

Round 2
NSH 2-1 STL
EDM 2-1 ANA
PIT 2-1 WSH
NYR 0-2 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67645.537.228.5
PIT0.59254.536.221.5
EDM0.57672.143.518.4
NSH0.53468.427.99.3
NYR0.57531.711.56.2
ANA0.55427.915.55.9
OTT0.49568.315.15.5
STL0.53731.613.14.5

Washington avoided falling behind 3-0, and is now interestingly the Eastern Conference favorite again, while only being 45% likely to win their current series. That seems to be because they'd be massively favored over Ottawa, who is currently up 2-0 against New York. That series will continue tonight, along with St. Louis vs Nashville.

2017-05-01

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 1

Pittsburgh over Edmonton

Round 2
NSH 2-1 STL
EDM 2-1 ANA
PIT 2-0 WSH
NYR 0-2 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.59269.946.527.7
EDM0.57672.143.519.6
WSH0.67630.124.618.8
NSH0.53468.427.910.0
NYR0.57531.712.46.7
ANA0.55427.915.56.3
OTT0.49568.316.56.0
STL0.53731.613.14.8

I think I jinxed the Blues yesterday, and they not only lost, but are now the least likely remaining team to win the cup. Anaheim won their game to avoid going down 3-0, but Edmonton is still the Western Conference favorite. Tonight, instead of two games, we only have one, I guess so everyone can write their columns about Washington choking if they fall behind 0-3. To me it's no failure to lose to the defending champs, but that doesn't seem to be a popular opinion.