Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 17, Final

Carolina over New England

This is a little unusual, but my AFC favorite is the second-best AFC team, according to my strength numbers. That's because New England has a bye into the next round, while Cincinnati is only 59.2% likely to make it there. In the NFC, Carolina is just barely favored over Arizona, because Arizona is in line for a weaker opponent. That's due to the rule of division winners being seeded above wildcards, so if, for example, Seattle and Washington advance, the much stronger Seattle team will play at Carolina, and Arizona will get division winner but barely-above-.500 Washington.

A few of the games went Indianapolis' way on Sunday, but they were several games short of winning the division, including Houston sealing it with a win.

As is tradition, not only do I project who should win each game, but I'll also tell you who I'm rooting for. Usually any tie is broken by me wanting to be right. Here are my picks for Saturday.

Kansas City at Houston:
Kansas City was my team before the Rams got here, and they could become my team again soon. Go Chiefs. Also, how many times will you hear the factoid that the Chiefs used to be the Dallas Texans, and now they're playing the Houston Texans, and isn't that crazy?! My guess is entirely too many.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati:
I like a good divisional matchup in the playoffs. These teams split the two regular season games, winning on the road and losing at home. I'll be rooting against my system for a repeat of that pattern. Go Steelers.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CAR	15-1	0.810	+	+	+	63.40	37.22	22.76
ARI	13-3	0.792	+	+	+	72.36	36.96	21.61
CIN	12-4	0.772	+	+	59.20	30.36	18.87	9.23
SEA	10-6	0.768	-	+	65.21	28.47	15.05	8.29
NE	12-4	0.762	+	+	+	52.94	32.27	15.39
KC	11-5	0.737	-	+	68.82	38.33	19.16	8.51
PIT	10-6	0.699	-	+	40.80	23.45	10.57	4.23
NYJ	10-6	0.651	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	11-5	0.638	+	+	34.79	11.03	3.95	1.57
DEN	12-4	0.633	+	+	+	43.49	15.56	5.16
GB	10-6	0.596	-	+	57.95	15.76	4.70	1.68
HOU	9-7	0.559	+	+	31.18	11.44	3.56	0.96
BUF	8-8	0.540	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	9-7	0.518	+	+	42.05	8.98	2.13	0.61
ATL	8-8	0.487	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	6-10	0.462	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	7-9	0.422	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	7-9	0.418	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	7-9	0.403	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	7-9	0.387	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	7-9	0.379	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	6-10	0.376	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	5-11	0.372	-	-	-	-	-	-
BAL	5-11	0.371	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	6-10	0.356	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	8-8	0.353	-	-	-	-	-	-
SD	4-12	0.342	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	6-10	0.336	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	4-12	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-13	0.261	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-13	0.211	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	5-11	0.189	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 16, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 11, Final)

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Carolina (Week 14, Sunday)

First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: Carolina, Denver (Week 17, Final)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Miami (Week 11, Final)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Saturday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Sunday]
[Week 16, Final]