2018-09-30

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 5

The easiest part of this used to be copying and pasting the game results into the text file that my ruby scripts and C++ program would then format and churn through, but not this week. ESPN renamed a ton of teams this week., especially in Division II and III, some of whom they also previously renamed this year. It's something small like changing "UNC Pembroke" to "North Carolina Pembroke", but my software has no idea those are the same team. Every now and then I'll catch one of those in a given week and just adjust all the previous weeks to the new name, but this time there were just too many. I just recopied all 4 weeks and reprocessed the whole thing. That's not so bad during week 5, but will get more cumbersome each week if it happens again.

Enough ranting, let's look at the new top of the rankings. Notre Dame is #1, after beating my previous #1, Stanford. That gives them a huge boost in strength of schedule. 7 of the 21 undefeated teams lost, bringing us to just 14. We're starting to see a little bit of separation and sorting not just on record, with 4-1 Stanford and 4-0 NC State ranked above 5-0 Cincinnati.

All 4 winless teams lost again, and UTEP remains #129. It's a little weird to see traditional powerhouses like UCLA and Nebraska down there, being propped up just a little by their stronger conference schedules.

1Notre Dame5-0
2LSU5-0
3Clemson5-0
4Alabama5-0
5Georgia5-0
6Ohio State5-0
7Kentucky5-0
8Oklahoma5-0
9Stanford4-1
10NC State4-0
11Cincinnati5-0
12Hawai'i5-1
13Washington4-1
14South Florida4-0
15Texas4-1
16West Virginia4-0
17Oklahoma State4-1
18Syracuse4-1
19Washington State4-1
20Penn State4-1
21Indiana4-1
22Florida4-1
23Auburn4-1
24Duke4-1
25Troy4-1
26Michigan4-1
27North Texas4-1
28Miami4-1
29UCF4-0
30Boston College4-1
31Oregon4-1
32Buffalo4-1
33Army3-2
34BYU3-2
35Boise State3-1
36USC3-2
37San Diego State3-1
38California3-1
39Louisiana Tech3-1
40Colorado4-0
41Michigan State3-1
42Wake Forest3-2
43Coastal Carolina3-2
44Maryland3-1
45Texas Tech3-2
46Virginia3-2
47Vanderbilt3-2
48TCU3-2
49Georgia Southern3-1
50Wisconsin3-1
51Ole Miss3-2
52Virginia Tech3-1
53Missouri3-1
54Texas A&M3-2
55Arizona State3-2
56Baylor3-2
57Iowa3-1
58Mississippi State3-2
59Arkansas State3-2
60Minnesota3-1
61Florida State3-2
62Marshall3-1
63Fresno State3-1
64UAB3-1
65Appalachian State3-1
66Western Michigan3-2
67Florida Intl3-2
68Houston3-1
69Memphis3-2
70South Carolina2-2
71Utah State3-1
72Nevada3-2
73Utah2-2
74Tulane2-3
75Tennessee2-3
76Illinois2-2
77Georgia State2-3
78Temple2-3
79Georgia Tech2-3
80Middle Tennessee2-2
81Ohio2-2
82Navy2-2
83Kansas State2-3
84SMU2-3
85East Carolina2-2
86Wyoming2-3
87Toledo2-2
88Eastern Michigan2-3
89Pittsburgh2-3
90UL Monroe2-3
91Florida Atlantic2-3
92Louisville2-3
93Southern Mississippi2-2
94UNLV2-2
95Akron2-1
96New Mexico2-2
97UMass2-4
98Kansas2-3
99Northern Illinois2-3
100Purdue2-3
101Ball State2-3
102Arizona2-3
103UConn1-4
104UTSA2-3
105Charlotte2-3
106Iowa State1-3
107North Carolina1-3
108Northwestern1-3
109Louisiana1-3
110Tulsa1-3
111Air Force1-3
112Colorado State1-4
113Rice1-4
114Rutgers1-4
115Miami (OH)1-4
116South Alabama1-4
117Central Michigan1-4
T-118Arkansas1-4
T-118Kent State1-4
120Bowling Green1-4
121Old Dominion1-4
122Oregon State1-4
123Western Kentucky1-4
124San Jose State0-4
125UCLA0-4
126New Mexico State1-4
127Texas State1-3
128Nebraska0-4
129UTEP0-5

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford

2018-09-28

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 4, Thursday

Los Angeles Rams over Miami

4-0 is a strong start, and I've got the Rams as the first team to cross a 90% chance of making the playoffs. They were also first to cross 80%, on Sunday, a full week earlier than last year's team. The Rams haven't started off this well since 2001, when the clock operator stole their chance of a kick return TD to win their second Superbowl in 3 years. I'm still not sure if I can root for them yet, but I don't have anyone else to root for either.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR4-00.60184.7992.8882.7549.3629.1316.72
MIA3-00.54768.7381.6165.2634.5618.139.25
BAL2-10.57040.9263.8346.8425.9014.247.60
KC3-00.53464.2076.6357.6329.5614.987.45
WAS2-10.54845.1762.6545.3323.8012.146.32
JAC2-10.53540.3554.3436.7918.799.554.76
CHI2-10.51946.5158.3538.8618.949.064.46
CIN2-10.52029.0950.9334.0116.828.324.02
CAR2-10.52330.6849.2132.9116.257.863.90
TB2-10.51633.1151.2534.2316.667.933.88
PHI2-10.51031.7047.3830.4214.586.873.32
TEN2-10.49736.0047.5328.9813.616.382.94
NYJ1-20.53817.0735.1322.0011.245.752.88
NO2-10.50123.9241.0925.8112.115.602.66
DEN2-10.48123.0038.1822.4610.174.592.04
CLE1-1-10.50215.3330.5818.528.824.201.96
PIT1-1-10.49714.6629.5517.658.303.911.80
SEA1-20.5028.5328.9516.587.633.611.72
GB1-1-10.47622.9834.2319.598.613.761.69
IND1-20.49318.8926.7915.447.183.341.53
ATL1-20.49112.2823.4413.466.122.781.29
LAC1-20.4829.8623.1212.895.852.661.19
NYG1-20.48311.5021.6012.405.562.481.13
DET1-20.46916.5323.5912.935.582.401.06
SF1-20.4735.9521.5411.645.022.230.99
MIN1-2-10.46313.9821.4911.364.822.040.89
DAL1-20.46511.6319.0310.324.451.900.83
NE1-20.4607.8416.368.763.801.650.70
BUF1-20.4396.3511.545.822.400.990.40
HOU0-30.4694.757.844.021.770.790.34
OAK0-30.4452.936.042.941.220.510.21
ARI0-30.4100.733.301.420.520.200.08

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami

2018-09-27

November Card Show Autographs

I got a little behind on posting, so hey, let's catch up. The last autographed balls I appear to have posted was from the 2 shows I went to in October 2017, so let's see what November brought.

Gary Gaetti                                                 Joe Cunningham

Part of the reason I write these posts is to show off the new piece of my collection, but another reason is to make a note of how the experience was getting the autograph. Nothing unusual happened when meeting Joe Cunningham, but for Gary Gaetti, the guy in front of me in line had a pretty interesting project. He had created prints using graphics from RBI Baseball (probably the greatest NES baseball game). I'm actually not sure he only had them for players in the game, or if he made ones for other players, but Gaetti was on the Minnesota roster in that game. I've talked before about starting an RBI Baseball collection of some sort, but this guy went above and beyond. The funniest part was that the guy left his binder with all his hard work behind on the table. And he had apparently done all his card show shopping and the autograph was his last stop, because someone had to go catch him in the parking lot.

I already had Gary Gaetti's autograph on a ball, but that one didn't fit my collection very well. It has several other players on it I met at the Cardinals Winter Warmup one year. I figured since I had the chance, I'd upgrade to a ball that fit with all my others.

2018-09-25

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 3, Final

Los Angeles Rams over Miami

Pittsburgh held on to beat Tampa Bay by 3 points, raising their playoff chances from 21.2% to 29.6%, and dropping Tampa Bay's from 60.3% to 50.9%. Miami remains on top of the AFC, mostly due to their huge advantage in their division, at 3-0 vs 1-2 for New England, Buffalo, and New York. LA is in an even better situation at 3-0 with 2 division rivals at 1-2 and one 0-3.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR3-00.58678.5087.5374.6143.3724.9813.96
MIA3-00.54768.6781.5065.1134.4818.089.37
BAL2-10.57040.9163.8046.8125.8814.237.71
KC3-00.53464.2576.7657.7929.6415.027.59
WAS2-10.54845.1162.4145.6024.1712.586.55
JAC2-10.53540.3354.3136.7618.779.544.83
CHI2-10.51943.6956.8338.4918.999.274.56
CIN2-10.52029.0750.9133.9816.818.314.08
CAR2-10.52330.6448.9133.0216.518.144.04
TB2-10.51633.0750.9434.3916.948.224.02
PHI2-10.51031.7747.2230.6914.907.163.46
TEN2-10.49736.0247.5528.9913.626.392.99
NYJ1-20.53817.0634.9721.8911.195.732.92
NO2-10.50124.0140.9426.0012.375.832.77
DEN2-10.48123.0638.3922.6110.244.632.10
CLE1-1-10.50215.3530.5918.538.824.211.99
SEA1-20.50211.8329.7217.518.263.961.88
PIT1-1-10.49714.6729.5717.678.313.921.84
GB1-1-10.47621.4733.3719.458.703.871.74
IND1-20.49318.8826.7815.447.183.341.56
MIN1-1-10.47319.6330.0917.377.703.401.52
ATL1-20.49112.2823.2313.476.242.881.34
LAC1-20.4829.7823.0812.875.842.661.21
NYG1-20.48311.4921.4112.415.662.571.17
SF1-20.4738.4922.4012.465.522.491.11
DET1-20.46915.2022.6512.655.552.441.08
DAL1-20.46511.6218.8810.354.531.980.87
NE1-20.4607.8616.328.743.791.650.71
BUF1-20.4396.4111.595.842.421.000.41
HOU0-30.4694.767.854.041.780.790.35
OAK0-30.4452.916.032.941.230.510.21
ARI0-30.4101.173.481.530.580.230.09

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami

2018-09-24

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 3, Sunday

Los Angeles Rams over Miami

The projection remains steady. Miami doesn't seem like a powerhouse, having won their games by 7, 8, and 8 points, but they're still solidly atop the AFC with a 3-0 record. Baltimore is stronger, but lost a game, knocking their chances back a little bit.

I don't recall seeing New England that far down the chart since I've been running these numbers. I can't say for sure it hasn't happened, but they always seem to win early and remain on top for the whole season.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR3-00.58678.5187.2774.0242.9724.7213.82
MIA3-00.54768.6581.8465.4434.6518.169.40
BAL2-10.57042.7565.0447.7326.3814.517.85
KC3-00.53464.1777.0558.0729.7715.087.61
WAS2-10.54845.0761.8044.8623.7212.336.42
TB2-00.51941.0160.2742.7921.2810.375.10
JAC2-10.53540.3754.8737.1618.979.644.88
CHI2-10.51943.6456.2637.8218.639.094.47
CIN2-10.52030.7152.2334.8517.248.534.19
CAR2-10.52327.3247.4631.7115.837.803.87
PHI2-10.51031.8046.6630.0114.536.993.37
TEN2-10.49735.9948.0229.3113.766.453.02
NYJ1-20.53817.0535.6022.2511.365.822.96
NO2-10.50120.9239.5424.8011.795.552.63
DEN2-10.48123.1138.9922.9510.394.692.12
CLE1-1-10.50216.3131.4719.049.074.322.05
SEA1-20.50211.8329.1917.148.093.881.84
GB1-1-10.47721.4932.7518.958.453.771.70
IND1-20.49318.8827.1915.687.293.391.57
MIN1-1-10.47319.6629.5416.927.493.311.48
ATL1-20.49110.7522.1512.785.912.731.27
PIT0-1-10.49210.2421.1912.255.702.661.23
LAC1-20.4829.8123.6213.155.972.711.23
NYG1-20.48311.4921.0112.105.512.511.14
SF1-20.4738.4821.8412.125.372.421.08
DET1-20.46915.2122.3612.415.442.391.06
DAL1-20.46611.6318.5210.094.411.930.85
NE1-20.4607.8816.768.963.881.690.73
BUF1-20.4396.4211.895.992.471.020.42
HOU0-30.4694.768.054.131.820.810.36
OAK0-30.4452.926.213.021.260.530.22
ARI0-30.4101.173.361.480.560.220.08

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami

2018-09-23

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 4

Stanford took over #1 from Alabama by beating as slightly-higher ranked team this week. They beat Oregon, #49, while Alabama beat Texas A&M, now #56. 13 undefeated teams lost this week, so we're down to 21 of them. 5 teams are 3-0 and 16 are 4-0. At the bottom, UTEP held strong at #129 with another loss. Interestingly, there are only 4 winless teams remaining.

1Stanford4-0
2Alabama4-0
3LSU4-0
4Georgia4-0
5Notre Dame4-0
6Penn State4-0
7Duke4-0
8South Florida4-0
9Kentucky4-0
10Syracuse4-0
11Clemson4-0
12Oklahoma4-0
13Hawai'i4-1
14Buffalo4-0
15Ohio State4-0
16North Texas4-0
17Cincinnati4-0
18BYU3-1
19California3-0
20NC State3-0
21San Diego State3-1
22Washington3-1
23Maryland3-1
24Texas Tech3-1
25Texas3-1
26Wisconsin3-1
27Oklahoma State3-1
28Indiana3-1
T-29Coastal Carolina3-1
T-29Ole Miss3-1
31Arkansas State3-1
32West Virginia3-0
33Virginia3-1
34Washington State3-1
35Auburn3-1
36Miami3-1
37Missouri3-1
38Mississippi State3-1
39Baylor3-1
40Michigan3-1
41UCF3-0
T-42Florida3-1
T-42Minnesota3-1
44Boston College3-1
45Iowa3-1
46Troy3-1
47Houston3-1
48Memphis3-1
49Oregon3-1
50Colorado3-0
51South Carolina2-1
52Utah State3-1
53Michigan State2-1
54USC2-2
55Army2-2
56Texas A&M2-2
57Boise State2-1
58Temple2-2
59Utah2-1
60Wake Forest2-2
61Arizona State2-2
62Marshall2-1
63TCU2-2
64Louisiana Tech2-1
65Illinois2-2
66Eastern Michigan2-2
67Appalachian State2-1
68Georgia Southern2-1
69Louisville2-2
70Vanderbilt2-2
71Florida Intl2-2
72Wyoming2-2
73New Mexico2-1
74UMass2-3
75UL Monroe2-2
76Tennessee2-2
77Navy2-2
78Toledo2-1
79Florida Atlantic2-2
80Southern Mississippi2-1
81UAB2-1
82Kansas State2-2
83Pittsburgh2-2
84Western Michigan2-2
85Fresno State2-1
86Akron2-1
87Virginia Tech2-1
88Florida State2-2
89Kansas2-2
90UNLV2-2
91Arizona2-2
92Nevada2-2
93Charlotte2-2
94Iowa State1-2
95Georgia Tech1-3
96UConn1-3
97Air Force1-2
98SMU1-3
99East Carolina1-2
100Georgia State1-3
101Tulsa1-3
102Middle Tennessee1-2
103Ohio1-2
104Louisiana1-2
105North Carolina1-2
106Northwestern1-2
107Miami (OH)1-3
108Tulane1-3
109Purdue1-3
110Rice1-3
111Kent State1-3
112Bowling Green1-3
113Colorado State1-4
114Ball State1-3
115Rutgers1-3
116South Alabama1-3
117Western Kentucky1-3
118Northern Illinois1-3
119UTSA1-3
120Central Michigan1-3
121Arkansas1-3
122Old Dominion1-3
123Oregon State1-3
124New Mexico State1-4
125UCLA0-3
126San Jose State0-3
127Nebraska0-3
128Texas State1-3
129UTEP0-4

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama

2018-09-21

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 3, Thursday

Los Angeles Rams over Miami

The projection didn't change, but there's still big news! Cleveland actually won a game. Sure, they managed not to lose in week 1, but now they've got a win.

I'm really thinking I need to add in homefield advantage next year. I've been making picks in fivethirtyeight's projection contest, and in that one I use my strengths here but also the 2017 rate of  homefield advantage (145 out of 256 games were won by the home team, if you're curious). That caused me to pick Cleveland over New York. despite a .539 to .493 disadvantage for Cleveland. Maybe I should make a second entry without homefield considered and just let them keep track for me which one does better.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR2-00.56267.0177.5861.7234.5019.2110.41
MIA2-00.53355.6368.4050.3926.0413.416.94
CIN2-00.53347.2464.5047.1524.3812.586.52
JAC2-00.53250.1963.7646.4423.9412.296.35
TB2-00.51944.6462.1845.2623.0011.575.78
KC2-00.51942.4760.6342.6321.3710.665.37
BAL1-10.54726.2646.2231.3116.598.794.67
MIN1-0-10.51536.5853.8837.1118.649.324.62
DEN2-00.50836.7154.1636.6717.948.744.31
WAS1-10.51833.9346.5231.2015.757.923.95
GB1-0-10.50231.3949.2232.7315.967.753.74
CHI1-10.51325.4541.7127.3713.666.793.35
NYJ1-20.53819.4132.7320.7110.755.582.92
DAL1-10.49729.1639.6524.8911.985.752.74
PHI1-10.50027.7838.5024.2011.745.682.73
ATL1-10.50221.8036.8323.4811.465.572.69
CAR1-10.50218.7635.2522.5110.985.342.58
IND1-10.50223.1134.5421.3710.304.962.42
SF1-10.49019.6235.1621.6610.294.922.32
LAC1-10.50216.1832.6319.999.634.632.25
CLE1-1-10.50216.4029.8718.248.824.272.08
NE1-10.49219.6231.4118.918.944.222.02
NO1-10.49314.8029.3418.108.654.131.95
TEN1-10.49119.7030.7018.318.624.061.93
PIT0-1-10.49210.1119.5311.445.412.561.22
SEA0-20.4809.1917.399.894.602.160.99
NYG0-20.4699.1315.208.473.831.740.78
HOU0-20.4787.0012.346.803.121.430.66
DET0-20.4566.5812.506.813.001.330.58
OAK0-20.4604.6410.575.632.481.090.48
ARI0-20.4384.179.104.601.940.830.35
BUF0-20.4415.348.024.011.690.710.30

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami

2018-09-18

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 2, Final

Los Angeles Rams over Miami

With 2 lower teams, nothing changed at the top, and I'm too busy to analyze it. So here you go!

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR2-00.56267.0277.5861.7234.4919.2010.39
MIA2-00.53351.9367.3249.4425.5113.136.79
CIN2-00.53350.1465.6347.8024.6912.736.59
JAC2-00.53250.1863.7046.2023.7812.206.30
TB2-00.51944.6962.2945.3723.0611.605.78
KC2-00.51942.4860.4942.4321.2410.585.33
BAL1-10.54728.0046.9931.7216.798.884.72
MIN1-0-10.51536.5853.8437.0718.639.314.61
DEN2-00.50836.7054.0736.5517.868.694.28
NYJ1-10.53925.3843.4228.8215.007.814.09
WAS1-10.51833.9446.5031.1915.747.913.94
GB1-0-10.50231.3949.1732.7015.957.753.73
CHI1-10.51325.4541.6927.3613.656.793.34
DAL1-10.49729.1639.6324.8711.975.742.74
PHI1-10.50027.7838.4824.1811.735.682.72
ATL1-10.50221.8236.9223.5511.485.582.69
CAR1-10.50218.7835.3422.5711.015.352.58
IND1-10.50223.1034.5021.2410.224.922.39
SF1-10.49019.6235.1421.6510.294.922.31
LAC1-10.50216.1832.4219.829.534.582.23
NE1-10.49217.9630.6418.438.704.111.96
NO1-10.49314.7229.2618.058.634.121.95
TEN1-10.49119.6930.6018.198.564.021.91
CLE0-1-10.49310.9019.8611.585.492.601.24
PIT0-1-10.49210.9619.8811.585.472.591.24
SEA0-20.4809.1917.389.884.602.150.99
NYG0-20.4699.1315.198.453.831.740.78
HOU0-20.4787.0312.366.793.101.420.66
DET0-20.4566.5812.506.813.001.320.58
OAK0-20.4604.6410.495.582.451.070.48
ARI0-20.4384.179.094.591.940.830.35
BUF0-20.4414.737.633.831.610.680.29

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami

2018-09-17

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Los Angeles Rams over Miami Dolphins

I always note the first point in each year when certain levels of championship chances are breached. The first is the 10% mark, reached for (I believe) the earliest point ever by the LA Rams. They shut out Arizona, giving them an extremely high strength, which you may recall is based on points scored and allowed.

In the AFC, Miami, Cincinnati, and Jacksonvillie are very close to each other. Each is the only 2-0 team in their respective divisions, and the top and bottom have strengths with less than a .001 difference. Cincinnati is actually the strongest team, but Miami seems to have a slightly easier schedule that bumps them into the top spot in the AFC.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR2-00.56263.4776.2460.7734.0218.9710.26
MIA2-00.53351.9467.4649.5825.5813.166.82
CIN2-00.53350.1465.6247.7824.6812.736.60
JAC2-00.53250.2063.6946.1923.7812.196.31
TB2-00.51944.9362.5745.7223.2811.735.85
KC2-00.51942.3860.3142.2621.1510.535.31
MIN1-0-10.51540.2955.5938.3219.299.654.78
BAL1-10.54728.0047.0031.7316.798.884.73
DEN2-00.50836.8954.1536.6017.898.714.30
NYJ1-10.53925.3943.5828.9415.067.844.11
WAS1-10.51833.9846.5831.2915.837.973.97
GB1-0-10.50234.5950.4933.6216.427.993.85
PHI1-10.50027.8138.5424.2711.805.722.74
DAL1-10.49728.9839.4924.8311.985.762.74
ATL1-10.50221.8036.9423.6211.555.622.71
CAR1-10.50218.5935.2322.5511.025.372.59
IND1-10.50223.1034.4921.2310.224.922.40
SF1-10.49018.1934.2921.2010.084.832.27
LAC1-10.50216.1332.2319.709.474.552.22
CHI0-10.49817.6829.1218.078.754.222.02
NE1-10.49217.9430.7618.518.744.131.97
NO1-10.49314.6829.2818.118.684.151.96
SEA0-10.49414.5528.4217.488.404.061.92
TEN1-10.49119.6830.5718.178.554.021.91
CLE0-1-10.49310.8919.8511.575.482.601.24
PIT0-1-10.49210.9619.8711.585.472.591.24
NYG0-20.4699.2315.328.553.881.760.79
HOU0-20.4787.0312.346.783.101.420.66
DET0-20.4567.4513.107.133.151.390.61
OAK0-20.4604.6110.405.522.421.070.47
ARI0-20.4383.788.794.461.890.800.34
BUF0-20.4414.737.683.851.620.680.29

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams

2018-09-16

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 3

The rankings are starting to look as expected now, with Alabama on top. There are still 34 undefeated teams, though, so those teams still have to keep winning to stay on top. Missouri, my adopted college football team, has risen all the way up to #22. Of course, SEC conference play is on the horizon. At the bottom, New Mexico State lost again to fall to 0-4, but UTEP took over the bottom spot on strength of schedule.

1Alabama3-0
2Stanford3-0
3Indiana3-0
4Oklahoma State3-0
5Notre Dame3-0
6Duke3-0
7South Florida3-0
8Boston College3-0
9Clemson3-0
10Penn State3-0
11Georgia3-0
12Washington State3-0
13LSU3-0
14Hawai'i3-1
15California3-0
16Ohio State3-0
17Syracuse3-0
18Buffalo3-0
19Mississippi State3-0
20Oklahoma3-0
21Oregon3-0
22Missouri3-0
23Minnesota3-0
24Kentucky3-0
25Iowa3-0
26North Texas3-0
27Colorado3-0
28Cincinnati3-0
29San Diego State2-1
30Washington2-1
31Army2-1
32Texas A&M2-1
33Auburn2-1
34Arkansas State2-1
35NC State2-0
36Navy2-1
37Wake Forest2-1
38Boise State2-1
39Vanderbilt2-1
40Ole Miss2-1
41Memphis2-1
42Virginia2-1
43BYU2-1
44West Virginia2-0
45Utah2-1
46Coastal Carolina2-1
47Illinois2-1
48Texas Tech2-1
49Baylor2-1
50Texas2-1
51Maryland2-1
52Virginia Tech2-0
53Pittsburgh2-1
54Louisiana Tech2-0
55Florida Atlantic2-1
56UCF2-0
57Louisville2-1
58Eastern Michigan2-1
59Georgia Southern2-1
60Nevada2-1
61Wisconsin2-1
62Florida Intl2-1
63Houston2-1
64Wyoming2-2
65Florida2-1
66Arizona State2-1
67UL Monroe2-1
67Miami2-1
69UAB2-1
70Marshall2-0
71Fresno State2-1
71Michigan2-1
73Tennessee2-1
74TCU2-1
75Akron2-0
76Kansas State2-1
77Troy2-1
78New Mexico2-1
79Kansas2-1
80UNLV2-1
81South Carolina1-1
82Utah State2-1
83Charlotte2-1
84Appalachian State1-1
84Temple1-2
86Air Force1-1
87USC1-2
88Georgia Tech1-2
89UMass1-3
90Georgia State1-2
91UConn1-2
92Michigan State1-1
93Tulsa1-2
94Ball State1-2
95East Carolina1-1
96Southern Mississippi1-1
97Tulane1-2
98Bowling Green1-2
99Louisiana1-1
100South Alabama1-2
101Florida State1-2
102Middle Tennessee1-2
103Rice1-2
104Ohio1-1
105Colorado State1-3
106Kent State1-2
107Northern Illinois1-2
108Rutgers1-2
109Northwestern1-2
110Toledo1-1
111Oregon State1-2
112Western Michigan1-2
113Arizona1-2
114Arkansas1-2
115Texas State1-2
116Iowa State0-2
117San Jose State0-3
118Nebraska0-2
119UCLA0-3
120Miami (OH)0-3
121North Carolina0-2
122SMU0-3
123UTSA0-3
124Western Kentucky0-3
125Purdue0-3
126Central Michigan0-3
127New Mexico State0-4
128Old Dominion0-3
129UTEP0-3

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i

2018-09-14

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 2, Thursday

Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams

Ah, Week 2, Thursday, my least favorite projections of the year. Every year it seems some team is 2-0 and becomes the strongest team because of the way I regress strengths early in the season. One of these years I'll fix that somehow. But for now, the numbers put Cincinnati as your Super Bowl champs, with LA still winning the NFC.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
CIN2-00.53344.6763.9147.6424.9913.116.87
WAS1-00.53039.4657.6341.7721.9411.505.95
LAR1-00.52847.7359.0742.4922.1811.545.93
CAR1-00.52439.0854.9739.1320.2910.505.37
NYJ1-00.52933.3750.8736.2018.799.715.05
MIN1-00.51737.9653.8537.9219.369.844.96
BAL1-10.54724.5545.8231.7117.039.164.93
PHI1-00.51734.2652.0636.3918.579.484.78
JAC1-00.51343.4352.2635.4917.758.854.46
KC1-00.51438.7251.1735.0317.588.794.44
TB1-00.50834.6249.8334.0317.048.524.22
MIA1-00.51328.7547.0732.5116.328.174.12
NE1-00.51328.6446.7232.2516.198.104.09
GB1-00.50234.1349.4933.5216.548.153.98
DEN1-00.50634.2446.4131.0715.327.533.74
CLE0-0-10.50015.4529.8219.049.294.542.23
PIT0-0-10.50015.3329.6418.949.244.522.22
SEA0-10.49419.8630.5819.109.274.502.16
CHI0-10.49815.1227.3116.948.284.051.96
NYG0-10.48714.0725.8615.877.593.631.72
SF0-10.48317.2926.1315.617.383.491.64
HOU0-10.48718.9625.4314.987.083.341.60
NO0-10.49212.5723.2314.136.833.301.58
TEN0-10.48718.6424.9914.686.943.281.57
IND0-10.48318.9725.1714.726.903.231.53
LAC0-10.48613.7522.8013.586.423.031.45
ATL0-10.48313.7322.9213.676.483.071.44
DAL0-10.47612.2122.0413.016.072.831.31
DET0-10.47112.8022.5213.366.172.851.30
ARI0-10.47015.1222.5213.066.012.761.26
OAK0-10.47213.3021.1012.355.662.591.20
BUF0-10.4699.2416.839.824.482.040.94

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore

2018-09-11

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 1

Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore


What's this? Here's a quick rundown originally taken from 2014's introductory post.
Each year I project the Super Bowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.
In week 1, the top teams are the ones with the biggest point differential, which could simply be a function of playing one very bad team. Baltimore won 47-3. They might be the strongest team, or Buffalo might be the weakest team. Or both could be true. Oddly enough, even though Washington has the best overall chances of winning the Super Bowl, they are not favored to win the NFC, thus LA is my winner. The biggest reason for that is that LA is the only 1-0 team in their division, starting them off at a 48% chance of winning the division, while Washington also has Philadelphia to contend with, so they are only a 39% favorite. Similarly, Baltimore also has a division rival at 1-0, and the other two at 0-0-1, which is better than 0-1.

Speaking of that 0-0-1 record, Cleveland has already improved on 2017 with a tie, better than their 0-16 last year. I don't keep track of too many decimal places on the exact records, but the chances I show of the following teams going 0-16 round to 0.01 instead of 0.00 (so they're at least 0.005%, but under 0.015%): New Orleans, Atlanta, Dallas, Oakland, Detroit, Arizona, Buffalo.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
WAS1-00.53039.4757.5341.6721.8911.485.98
LAR1-00.52847.7258.9942.3922.1311.525.97
BAL1-00.53135.5153.9438.8920.4410.725.60
CAR1-00.52439.0555.2139.3620.4110.565.44
NYJ1-00.52933.2951.1236.4719.059.935.16
MIN1-00.51737.9653.7637.8419.319.824.98
PHI1-00.51734.2351.9436.2818.529.454.80
KC1-00.51438.7251.7635.7418.079.114.59
JAC1-00.51343.3452.3835.7618.019.054.56
CIN1-00.51730.0148.2933.6517.138.724.43
TB1-00.50834.6350.0934.2717.168.584.28
MIA1-00.51328.9347.5032.9116.638.404.24
NE1-00.51328.5846.9832.5116.438.304.19
GB1-00.50234.1249.3833.4416.518.134.00
DEN1-00.50634.2446.9831.7315.767.813.88
CLE0-0-10.50017.3031.5820.3410.004.922.41
PIT0-0-10.50017.1831.4020.249.954.892.40
SEA0-10.49419.8630.5019.049.244.482.17
CHI0-10.49815.1227.2316.898.254.031.97
NYG0-10.48714.0825.8015.847.583.631.73
SF0-10.48317.3026.0715.577.363.491.65
HOU0-10.48718.9325.5515.157.213.431.64
TEN0-10.48718.7925.3915.067.173.411.63
NO0-10.49212.5923.4614.296.903.341.61
IND0-10.48318.9525.2414.877.033.321.58
LAC0-10.48613.7523.2913.986.663.171.52
ATL0-10.48313.7323.1313.826.553.101.47
DAL0-10.47612.2221.9712.966.052.821.32
DET0-10.47112.8022.4713.326.152.841.31
ARI0-10.47015.1222.4613.025.992.761.27
OAK0-10.47213.3021.5412.725.882.711.26
BUF0-10.4699.2117.079.984.582.110.97

2018-09-09

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 2

How about that, Hawai'i stays at #1 for the first 2 weeks. Can they run the table? Probably not, they're mostly there by having played a game in Week 0. The rest of the ratings are still mostly silly, but there are a few traditional powerhouses near the top, including #2 Alabama. At the bottom, New Mexico State is still last, all the way down to #129 now.

1Hawai'i3-0
2Alabama2-0
3Stanford2-0
4Auburn2-0
5NC State2-0
6Georgia2-0
7Ohio State2-0
8South Florida2-0
9Duke2-0
10Notre Dame2-0
11Penn State2-0
12Wake Forest2-0
13Virginia Tech2-0
14Ole Miss2-0
15Indiana2-0
16Vanderbilt2-0
17Oklahoma2-0
18Georgia Southern2-0
19Boston College2-0
20Marshall2-0
21Mississippi State2-0
22Maryland2-0
23Colorado2-0
24Baylor2-0
25Arizona State2-0
26Oklahoma State2-0
27Boise State2-0
28Eastern Michigan2-0
29West Virginia2-0
30Syracuse2-0
31Clemson2-0
32UL Monroe2-0
33Houston2-0
34Wisconsin2-0
35LSU2-0
36Utah2-0
37California2-0
38Minnesota2-0
39Kentucky2-0
40Washington State2-0
41Illinois2-0
42Cincinnati2-0
43Iowa2-0
44UCF2-0
45Missouri2-0
46Louisiana Tech2-0
47TCU2-0
48Oregon2-0
49Buffalo2-0
50North Texas2-0
51Florida Atlantic1-1
52UMass1-2
53Navy1-1
54Arkansas State1-1
55Louisville1-1
56Tulane1-1
57South Carolina1-1
58Rutgers1-1
59Texas1-1
60Air Force1-1
61San Diego State1-1
62Georgia Tech1-1
63Georgia State1-1
64Texas Tech1-1
65Washington1-1
66USC1-1
67Army1-1
68Kansas State1-1
69Ball State1-1
70Appalachian State1-1
71Colorado State1-2
72Florida State1-1
73Virginia1-1
74Troy1-1
75Michigan State1-1
76Tennessee1-1
77Texas A&M1-1
78Rice1-2
79Memphis1-1
80Fresno State1-1
81East Carolina1-1
82Northwestern1-1
83Oregon State1-1
84Michigan1-1
85Toledo1-0
86Pittsburgh1-1
87Middle Tennessee1-1
88Nevada1-1
89Southern Mississippi1-1
90Coastal Carolina1-1
91Texas State1-1
91Tulsa1-1
93Akron1-0
94Florida1-1
95Ohio1-0
96Louisiana1-0
97BYU1-1
98New Mexico1-1
99Florida Intl1-1
100Miami1-1
101Kent State1-1
102Arkansas1-1
103UNLV1-1
104Wyoming1-2
105Charlotte1-1
106Kansas1-1
107Utah State1-1
108UAB1-1
109Nebraska0-1
110UTSA0-2
111Iowa State0-1
112UCLA0-2
113Miami (OH)0-2
114UConn0-2
115Bowling Green0-2
116South Alabama0-2
117San Jose State0-2
118Temple0-2
119Northern Illinois0-2
120Western Kentucky0-2
121SMU0-2
122Purdue0-2
123Western Michigan0-2
124North Carolina0-2
125Arizona0-2
126Central Michigan0-2
127Old Dominion0-2
128UTEP0-2
129New Mexico State0-3

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i

2018-09-05

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

College football has officially finished week 1, so it's time to start ranking the teams again. In case you're new here, here's an explanation I mostly just copy from year to year, with some slight editing.

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers".  As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated.  The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that.  I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength.  I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop.  So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001.  I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings.  It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team. (i.e., an NAIA team will be listed when they play against a Div III team, but the rest of their games won't be listed, resulting in a lot of 0-1 teams mixed into my system).  I then filter the final results to only the FBS schools.

In the past, in week 1, there were only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week! However, since 2016 we seem to be in the era of the pre-Week-1 game, which means a 2-0, 0-2, and/or 1-1 team might be in the mix. Also, some teams don't play in Week 1, and you don't get a ranking until you play, thus the bottom of the chart may not be the full number of teams in FBS.

The FBS is now down to 129 teams. Every year I have to adjust my filter to account for any teams joining or leaving the FBS, as well as stylistic differences in how ESPN lists the teams. This year, Idaho left. And, according to ESPN, UT San Antonio is now UTSA, Louisiana Monroe is now UL Monroe, and Connecticut is now UConn. In the past, they've waffled between "Mississippi" and "Ole Miss", and changed Hawaii to Hawai'i. I try to keep up with any adjustments, but if you notice your FBS team missing, leave me a comment and they'll be there next week. I think I'm good, because I have 126 teams represented, and Akron, Nebraska, and Iowa State still to add, since they were canceled this week.

Now onto the Week 1 rankings, which are still mostly silly. Hawai'i sits alone at #1 due to being 2-0, and likewise all the way at the bottom, New Mexico State is already 0-2 and holding onto #126 alone.

1Hawai'i2-0
2Houston1-0
2Boston College1-0
4Washington State1-0
4UMass1-1
4Rice1-1
7UCF1-0
7Ball State1-0
7Georgia State1-0
7UL Monroe1-0
7Northwestern1-0
7Wake Forest1-0
7UAB1-0
7Oklahoma State1-0
7Utah1-0
7Texas A&M1-0
7Wisconsin1-0
7Michigan State1-0
7Stanford1-0
7Syracuse1-0
7Eastern Michigan1-0
7Duke1-0
7Nevada1-0
7Alabama1-0
7Clemson1-0
7Georgia1-0
7Ohio State1-0
7Auburn1-0
7Oklahoma1-0
7Penn State1-0
7Notre Dame1-0
7USC1-0
7TCU1-0
7West Virginia1-0
7Mississippi State1-0
7Boise State1-0
7Maryland1-0
7Oregon1-0
7Illinois1-0
7Rutgers1-0
7South Carolina1-0
7Ole Miss1-0
7NC State1-0
7Georgia Tech1-0
7Air Force1-0
7Ohio1-0
7Pittsburgh1-0
7Kentucky1-0
7Iowa1-0
7California1-0
7Missouri1-0
7Arkansas1-0
7Virginia1-0
7Marshall1-0
7Charlotte1-0
7South Florida1-0
7Buffalo1-0
7Georgia Southern1-0
7Louisiana1-0
7Toledo1-0
7Arkansas State1-0
7Memphis1-0
7Tulsa1-0
7Louisiana Tech1-0
7Southern Mississippi1-0
7Cincinnati1-0
7Indiana1-0
7Kansas State1-0
7Florida1-0
7Vanderbilt1-0
7North Texas1-0
7Baylor1-0
7New Mexico1-0
7Fresno State1-0
7Arizona State1-0
7BYU1-0
7LSU1-0
7Virginia Tech1-0
79Colorado1-0
80Minnesota1-0
81Wyoming1-1
82East Carolina0-1
83Navy0-1
84UConn0-1
84Purdue0-1
84Tulane0-1
84San Jose State0-1
84Western Kentucky0-1
84Utah State0-1
84San Diego State0-1
84Western Michigan0-1
84Army0-1
84Louisville0-1
84Oregon State0-1
84Washington0-1
84Florida Atlantic0-1
84Appalachian State0-1
84Michigan0-1
84UNLV0-1
84Tennessee0-1
84Troy0-1
84Texas0-1
84Bowling Green0-1
84Kent State0-1
84Texas State0-1
84Coastal Carolina0-1
84Texas Tech0-1
84Temple0-1
84Central Michigan0-1
84Northern Illinois0-1
84North Carolina0-1
84Miami (OH)0-1
84Old Dominion0-1
84South Alabama0-1
84UCLA0-1
84Florida Intl0-1
84Kansas0-1
84Middle Tennessee0-1
84SMU0-1
84UTEP0-1
84UTSA0-1
84Arizona0-1
84Miami0-1
84Florida State0-1
125Colorado State0-2
126New Mexico State0-2