Tenets of Wilson

2014-01-06

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Wildcard Sunday

Seattle over Denver

San Diego beat Cincinnati convincingly, but San Francisco and Green Bay went down to the wire, and 3 out of the 4 Wild Card games finished with score differentials of 1, 2, and 3 points.

Seattle and Denver still sit atop the projections, but they'll actually have to play this week. They'll both host rematches from earlier this season, with Seattle stomping New Orleans, and Denver losing to San Diego in Denver this year. San Francisco travels to Carolina after losing against them at home this year, and in the only non-rematch, Indianapolis goes to New England.

I'll be rooting for Denver and Indianapolis, and I'll be a little ambivalent about both NFC games. I'll probably root for both NFC West teams, mostly so I can fool myself into feeling better about the Rams misfortunes, as two of their division rivals play for the NFC title next week.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	13-3	0.856	+	+	+	70.072	44.380	31.060
DEN	13-3	0.779	+	+	+	70.506	45.248	20.657
CAR	12-4	0.779	+	+	+	51.301	22.318	13.030
SF	12-4	0.770	-	+	+	48.699	20.589	11.768
NO	11-5	0.717	-	+	+	29.928	12.713	6.417
NE	12-4	0.695	+	+	+	59.039	26.889	9.519
IND	11-5	0.612	+	+	+	40.961	15.175	4.203
SD	9-7	0.596	-	+	+	29.494	12.688	3.346

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 15, Sunday)

First to 30% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 17, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to clinch a Playoff berth: Seattle (Week 13, Final)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Denver (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Sunday]
[Week 16, Final]
[Week 17, Final]
[Wildcard Saturday]

2014-01-05

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Wildcard Saturday

Seattle over Denver

Somewhat interestingly, this is the same projection after Wildcard Saturday last year. However, last year Atlanta, Houston, and Washington were all still in the playoffs, with a combined 35 regular season wins.

Yesterday I didn't feel all that strongly about either game, but my chosen teams lost both of them. First, I stopped paying much attention to the Kansas City game after they were up by 28 points. I still had the game on TV, but I wasn't glued to the screen; I was able to take care of some things around the house. At one point I think I had a TV tuned to the game in 3 different rooms since I was moving around so much. Ultimately Indianapolis pulled out the win by a point, as I'm sure you know.

I like both Philadelphia and New Orleans, so I was mostly just hoping to watch a good game, but I decided I was rooting for Philadelphia, even though in my projections, they were underdogs. The game stayed close until the end and even though "my" team lost on a last-second field goal, it was a pretty good game overall.

Today I'm rooting for Green Bay over San Francisco, and San Diego over Cincinnati. What can I say, I like the underdogs this year.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	13-3	0.856	+	+	+	70.095	45.034	30.903
DEN	13-3	0.779	+	+	+	71.856	43.372	19.854
CAR	12-4	0.779	+	+	+	57.367	24.980	14.195
SF	12-4	0.770	-	+	78.399	38.150	16.141	8.959
CIN	11-5	0.738	+	+	65.649	36.299	18.467	7.470
NO	11-5	0.718	-	+	+	29.905	13.060	6.378
NE	12-4	0.695	+	+	+	51.020	23.298	8.288
SD	9-7	0.596	-	+	34.351	10.122	4.480	1.195
IND	11-5	0.572	+	+	+	30.702	10.383	2.552
GB	8-7-1	0.480	+	+	21.601	4.483	0.784	0.207

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 15, Sunday)

First to 30% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 17, Final)

2014-01-04

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 19

The NCAA didn't have any late games, and the NFL is creeping into Saturday, so you get your Power Rankings a day early this week. I'm sure you're overjoyed.

Michigan State won against previously #5 Stanford to get a huge schedule strenght boost and jump ahead of Auburn, but Auburn was unlikely to finish at #2 anyway. A win against Florida State would likely vault them to #1, while a loss would drop them at least 1 spot, possibly more.

It just pains me to see Missouri all the way up at #4. A different turn of events in one OT game, and a better finish against Auburn would likely have had them at #1. But like I keep telling myself, there's a similar story for most teams near the top. For example, Michigan State would probably be 13-0 and waiting to play Monday night if not for a single 4-point loss to Notre Dame.

Once again the #111-114 teams shuffled around. California rose from #114 to #111, bumping Eastern Michigan to #113 and Temple to #114. New Mexico State held strong in the middle at #112.

1	Florida State	13-0
2	Michigan State	13-1
3	Auburn	12-1
4	Missouri	12-2
5	Ohio State	12-2
6	South Carolina	11-2
7	Stanford	11-3
8	Clemson	11-2
9	UCF	12-1
10	Alabama	11-2
11	Oklahoma	11-2
12	Baylor	11-2
13	Louisville	12-1
14	Oregon	11-2
15	Northern Illinois	12-2
16	Arizona State	10-4
17	UCLA	10-3
18	Fresno State	11-2
19	USC	10-4
20	LSU	10-3
21	Oklahoma State	10-3
22	Duke	10-4
23	Texas A&M	9-4
24	Washington	9-4
25	Notre Dame	9-4
26	East Carolina	10-3
27	Rice	10-4
28	Nebraska	9-4
29	Bowling Green	10-4
30	Wisconsin	9-4
31	Marshall	10-4
32	Ball State	10-2
33	Miami (FL)	9-4
34	Georgia	8-5
35	Navy	9-4
36	Virginia Tech	8-5
37	Arizona	8-5
38	Vanderbilt	9-4
39	Ole Miss	8-5
40	Utah State	9-5
41	Brigham Young	8-5
42	North Texas	9-4
43	Texas	8-5
44	Minnesota	8-5
45	Iowa	8-5
46	Louisiana-Lafayette	9-4
47	Kansas State	8-5
48	Houston	8-5
49	Mississippi State	7-6
50	Texas Tech	8-5
51	Pittsburgh	7-6
52	Boise State	8-5
53	Cincinnati	9-4
54	North Carolina	7-6
55	San Diego State	8-5
56	Michigan	7-6
57	Georgia Tech	7-6
58	Oregon State	7-6
59	Western Kentucky	8-4
60	Toledo	7-5
61	Syracuse	7-6
62	Penn State	7-5
63	Boston College	7-6
64	Middle Tennessee	8-5
65	Buffalo	8-5
66	Tulane	7-6
67	UTSA	7-5
68	Colorado State	8-6
69	Maryland	7-6
70	Washington State	6-7
71	UNLV	7-6
72	Arkansas State	7-5
73	San Jose State	6-6
74	Ohio	7-6
75	Utah	5-7
76	South Alabama	6-6
77	Louisiana-Monroe	6-6
78	Troy	6-6
79	Florida Atlantic	6-6
80	Tennessee	5-7
81	Indiana	5-7
82	Northwestern	5-7
83	Rutgers	6-7
84	Central Michigan	6-6
85	Texas State	6-6
86	Akron	5-7
87	Colorado	4-8
88	Florida	4-8
89	Southern Methodist	5-7
90	TCU	4-8
91	Wake Forest	4-8
92	Illinois	4-8
93	Wyoming	5-7
94	Nevada	4-8
95	West Virginia	4-8
96	Kent State	4-8
97	Arkansas	3-9
98	North Carolina State	3-9
99	Iowa State	3-9
100	Tulsa	3-9
101	Kansas	3-9
102	Memphis	3-9
103	Connecticut	3-9
104	Virginia	2-10
105	New Mexico	3-9
106	Louisiana Tech	4-8
107	Kentucky	2-10
108	South Florida	2-10
109	Army	3-9
110	UAB	2-10
111	California	1-11
112	New Mexico State	2-10
113	Eastern Michigan	2-10
114	Temple	2-10
115	Air Force	2-10
116	Purdue	1-11
117	UTEP	2-10
118	Hawaii	1-11
119	Idaho	1-11
120	Massachusetts	1-11
121	Western Michigan	1-11
122	Florida International	1-11
123	Southern Miss	1-11
124	Miami (OH)	0-12

2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18

2014-01-02

eBay Wins #95

Today, I bring you two '90s.

No no, Kramer, not the decade. I have 2 cards from the 90s. 1990 to be precise.

1990 Topps #719 Wally Whitehurst
1990 Upper Deck #510 Dave Anderson

These were 2 more penny cards picked up in my quest to scrape the bottom of the eBay barrel. Still, they're not duplicates, so I figure, why not.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	2513
Total Spent	$43.96
Per Card	1.749 cents

2013-12-31

Two Contests This Week

Play at the Plate is having a year-end contest for a 2014 Topps blaster, and a rack pack for those who shamelessly plug the context, like this. Enter by leaving comments on any of his posts, but here is the contest post. It ends sometime tomorrow so get commenting.

Second is the Almost the Easiest Super Bowl Contest on the Web IV, which I mentioned last week. Pick the Superbowl winner, loser, points scored, and number of turnovers.

And now, for no good reason, here's Steve Harvey again.

2013-12-30

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 17, Final

Seattle over Denver

The projection I've had for quite a few weeks now has held up, and Seattle and Denver are finally the top 2 teams in strength as well. I was rather disappointed that Pittsburgh didn't make the playoffs, partially because I just like seeing unlikely things happen.

Green Bay is the longest shot to win the Superbowl, but that's a little misleading. They've got a negative point differential on the year, which is how I derive team strength. However, in several games, they were without a pretty important individual, their star QB Aaron Rodgers. So, today's team should be better than what I show here, which is the average Green Bay team over the last 16 games.

Looking at all these playoff teams, I think I'll be mostly rooting for the Chiefs in the AFC, and the Broncos if they are eliminated. In the NFC, it'll be Green Bay followed by New Orleans.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	13-3	0.856	+	+	+	69.594	45.655	30.937
DEN	13-3	0.779	+	+	+	64.291	37.787	17.325
CAR	12-4	0.779	+	+	+	61.933	26.665	14.851
SF	12-4	0.770	-	+	78.358	34.394	15.872	8.640
KC	11-5	0.738	-	+	67.874	32.691	16.906	6.851
CIN	11-5	0.738	+	+	65.618	36.291	17.477	7.084
NO	11-5	0.717	-	+	62.044	18.576	8.128	3.871
NE	12-4	0.695	+	+	+	46.721	20.526	7.318
ARI	10-6	0.616	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	10-6	0.608	+	+	37.956	11.604	2.907	1.043
SD	9-7	0.596	-	+	34.382	10.146	3.959	1.058
IND	11-5	0.572	+	+	32.126	9.861	3.344	0.830
DET	7-9	0.537	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	8-8	0.518	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	8-8	0.512	-	-	-	-	-	-
GB	8-7-1	0.480	+	+	21.642	3.898	0.773	0.194
STL	7-9	0.466	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	7-9	0.462	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	8-8	0.458	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	8-8	0.446	-	-	-	-	-	-
BAL	8-8	0.429	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	6-10	0.400	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	5-10-1	0.350	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	4-12	0.335	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	7-9	0.311	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-12	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	8-8	0.295	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	4-12	0.288	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	4-12	0.263	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-13	0.253	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-14	0.210	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	4-12	0.174	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 15, Sunday)

First to 30% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 17, Final)

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 18

Once again, with everyone at the top inactive, there were no large changes. The highest movement was Louisville going from #15 to #9, and Northern Illinois dropping from #9 to #11. Somewhat interestingly, the #111-#114 teams shuffled around due to strength of schedule changes.

1	Florida State	13-0
2	Auburn	12-1
3	Michigan State	12-1
4	Ohio State	12-1
5	Stanford	11-2
6	Missouri	11-2
7	Alabama	11-1
8	Baylor	11-1
9	Louisville	12-1
10	Arizona State	10-3
11	Northern Illinois	12-2
12	South Carolina	10-2
13	Clemson	10-2
14	Fresno State	11-2
15	UCF	11-1
16	USC	10-4
17	Oklahoma State	10-2
18	Oklahoma	10-2
19	Oregon	10-2
20	Duke	10-3
21	UCLA	9-3
22	Notre Dame	9-4
23	Washington	9-4
24	East Carolina	10-3
25	LSU	9-3
26	Rice	10-3
27	Wisconsin	9-3
28	Marshall	10-4
29	Bowling Green	10-4
30	Miami (FL)	9-4
31	Ball State	10-2
32	Virginia Tech	8-4
33	Texas A&M	8-4
34	Georgia	8-4
35	Utah State	9-5
36	Brigham Young	8-5
37	Iowa	8-4
38	Minnesota	8-5
39	Louisiana-Lafayette	9-4
40	Texas	8-4
41	Houston	8-4
42	Kansas State	8-5
43	Nebraska	8-4
44	Navy	8-4
45	Pittsburgh	7-6
46	Boise State	8-5
47	North Carolina	7-6
48	Cincinnati	9-4
49	Arizona	7-5
50	San Diego State	8-5
51	Georgia Tech	7-5
52	Vanderbilt	8-4
53	Michigan	7-6
54	Ole Miss	7-5
55	Oregon State	7-6
56	North Texas	8-4
57	Western Kentucky	8-4
58	Toledo	7-5
59	Syracuse	7-6
60	Boston College	7-5
61	Penn State	7-5
62	Middle Tennessee	8-4
63	Buffalo	8-5
64	Texas Tech	7-5
65	Mississippi State	6-6
66	Tulane	7-6
67	UTSA	7-5
68	Colorado State	8-6
69	Maryland	7-6
70	UNLV	7-5
71	Washington State	6-7
72	Arkansas State	7-5
73	San Jose State	6-6
74	Ohio	7-6
75	Utah	5-7
76	South Alabama	6-6
77	Louisiana-Monroe	6-6
78	Florida Atlantic	6-6
79	Troy	6-6
80	Tennessee	5-7
81	Indiana	5-7
82	Northwestern	5-7
83	Rutgers	6-7
84	Central Michigan	6-6
85	Texas State	6-6
86	Akron	5-7
87	Colorado	4-8
88	Florida	4-8
89	Southern Methodist	5-7
90	TCU	4-8
91	Wake Forest	4-8
92	Illinois	4-8
93	Nevada	4-8
94	Wyoming	5-7
95	West Virginia	4-8
96	Kent State	4-8
97	Arkansas	3-9
98	North Carolina State	3-9
99	Iowa State	3-9
100	Tulsa	3-9
101	Kansas	3-9
102	Memphis	3-9
103	Connecticut	3-9
104	Virginia	2-10
105	New Mexico	3-9
106	Louisiana Tech	4-8
107	Kentucky	2-10
108	South Florida	2-10
109	Army	3-9
110	UAB	2-10
111	New Mexico State	2-10
112	California	1-11
113	Eastern Michigan	2-10
114	Temple	2-10
115	Air Force	2-10
116	Purdue	1-11
117	UTEP	2-10
118	Hawaii	1-11
119	Idaho	1-11
120	Massachusetts	1-11
121	Western Michigan	1-11
122	Florida International	1-11
123	Southern Miss	1-11
124	Miami (OH)	0-12

2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17

2013-12-28

eBay Wins #94

Once again it's a 1-card-1-penny post. This time I picked up Andrew Bailey's base card from 2012 Archives.

2012 Topps Archives #196 Andrew Bailey

I don't know him very well, and the fact that he missed the 2013 playoffs means I didn't get to see him this year in one of my few chances to see AL teams.

I may or may not eventually try to complete this set, but at least I've now crossed the 1% mark at 3 out of 241 cards. The other two came courtesy of Cards on Cards' College Bowl contest last year.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	2511
Total Spent	$43.94
Per Card	1.75 cents

2013-12-26

Zistle Trade #6

I made another small Zistle trade, for 4 Cardinals and a Heritage SP. I'm finding that as long as I put cards in my want list, and mark duplicates in my trade list, Zistle makes it fairly easy to put together trades that cherry pick my wants from my trading partner's trade list, and vice versa.

2011 Topps Update - Diamond Duos #DD-12 Matt Holliday/Colby Rasmus
2012 Topps - Walmart Blue Border #291 David Freese
2013 Topps - Chasing History #CH-74 Stan Musial
2013 Topps - Chasing History #87 Lance Lynn

2011 Topps Heritage
#427 Will Rhymes SP

This card leaves me with about 19 High Number SPs to go for 2011 Heritage, and 76 total cards if I count all the variations available. As I get closer I'll figure out how close I really am to a "complete" 2011 Heritage set.

2013-12-24

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 16, Final

Seattle over Denver

San Francisco grabbed a playoff spot with their win last night, so the final NFC slot is down to New Orleans and Arizona. If they both win or both lose, New Orleans is in on the tiebreaker. New Orleans could be their division champ as well with a Carolina loss. Seattle still hasn't clinched their division, but is the favorite to win the Superbowl. If they do win the division, with either a win or a San Francisco loss, they'll definitely have a first round bye, and their chances should jump a bit. As I mentioned yesterday, Chicago plays Green Bay, and Dallas plays Philadelphia, with the winners getting division titles and the losers out of the playoffs.

In the AFC, 5 spots are spoken for - though not necessarily their seeding - leaving 4 teams to fight it out for 1 spot. Those 4 are Miami, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and San Diego. San Diego is probably in better position than my rankings indicate, because the Chiefs have nothing but pride to play for, and a game without injuries in worth way more than pride when it comes to the playoff game the following week. I'll be rooting for things to go Pittsburgh's way, meaning losses by the other 3 teams.

By the time the late games kick off, Miami or Baltimore could already own the spot, or it could be San Diego's to win, or, in the event Miami and Baltimore both win, San Diego could determine who gets in but not have any chance themselves, thanks to the jumble of teams currently at 8-7. If Miami and Baltimore win, but San Diego loses, Baltimore is in. But, a San Diego win makes it a 3-way tiebreaker and Miami wins. There would thus be much meaning in the KC-SD game, despite neither team really having anything to gain or lose in it.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	12-3	0.824	88.224	+	98.092	63.968	39.661	25.812
CAR	11-4	0.775	89.558	+	97.404	61.222	29.528	17.096
SF	11-4	0.762	11.776	+	78.833	36.365	18.289	10.273
DEN	12-3	0.751	+	+	+	61.915	35.970	16.558
KC	11-4	0.742	-	+	63.432	33.080	18.713	8.400
CIN	10-5	0.710	+	+	71.138	38.335	18.721	7.671
NO	10-5	0.675	10.442	93.438	63.812	22.763	8.493	3.863
NE	11-4	0.672	+	+	87.344	42.383	18.642	6.868
ARI	10-5	0.622	-	6.562	3.718	0.964	0.332	0.132
PHI	9-6	0.604	58.908	58.908	23.067	7.338	2.104	0.802
SD	8-7	0.591	-	7.055	2.874	0.952	0.364	0.107
IND	10-5	0.572	+	+	44.890	15.974	5.488	1.525
DET	7-8	0.538	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	8-7	0.515	41.092	41.092	11.809	2.831	0.652	0.197
STL	7-8	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	7-8	0.492	-	9.306	2.950	0.736	0.216	0.047
MIA	8-7	0.489	-	58.841	18.856	4.657	1.352	0.294
GB	7-7-1	0.471	51.712	51.712	11.885	2.348	0.509	0.136
BAL	8-7	0.466	-	24.798	8.517	1.970	0.534	0.108
CHI	8-7	0.454	48.288	48.288	11.381	2.201	0.431	0.110
TEN	6-9	0.451	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	6-9	0.427	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	4-10-1	0.353	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	4-11	0.339	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	4-11	0.333	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-11	0.332	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	4-11	0.296	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	6-9	0.290	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-12	0.282	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	7-8	0.277	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-13	0.229	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	4-11	0.173	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 15, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to clinch a Playoff berth: Seattle (Week 13, Final)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Denver (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Sunday]

2013-12-23

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 16, Sunday

Seattle over Denver

Seattle is still on top, though a San Francisco win tonight could put that in jeopardy next week. A San Francisco loss would clinch the NFC West for them. The Lions were eliminated by their loss, despite Green Bay and Chicago's losses, since they'll play each other this week and the winner will have 9 wins, or 8 wins and a tie.

On the AFC side, Denver already has a first round bye, and is the favorite to represent their conference in the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh stayed alive in the playoff race by virtue of losses by Miami and Baltimore, and wins by themselves and the Jets. 3 out of 4 of those were wins by underdogs in my ratings, so Pittsburgh's chances increased over 30-fold, from 0.3% to 9.3%

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	12-3	0.824	90.327	+	98.432	65.327	40.849	26.583
CAR	11-4	0.775	88.891	+	97.280	62.354	30.293	17.537
DEN	12-3	0.751	+	+	+	61.914	35.963	16.668
SF	10-4	0.748	9.673	94.423	72.483	31.734	15.453	8.388
KC	11-4	0.742	-	+	63.432	33.085	18.719	8.462
CIN	10-5	0.710	+	+	71.131	38.328	18.720	7.728
NO	10-5	0.675	11.109	94.173	65.113	23.581	8.907	4.051
NE	11-4	0.672	+	+	87.343	42.388	18.643	6.930
ARI	10-5	0.622	-	11.404	6.594	1.793	0.636	0.254
PHI	9-6	0.604	58.905	58.905	23.211	7.435	2.168	0.827
SD	8-7	0.591	-	7.055	2.873	0.952	0.363	0.108
IND	10-5	0.572	+	+	44.896	15.974	5.490	1.539
DET	7-8	0.538	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	8-7	0.515	41.095	41.095	12.220	2.943	0.688	0.208
STL	7-8	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	7-8	0.492	-	9.298	2.946	0.734	0.216	0.048
MIA	8-7	0.489	-	58.848	18.862	4.656	1.352	0.297
GB	7-7-1	0.471	51.712	51.712	12.772	2.526	0.550	0.146
BAL	8-7	0.466	-	24.798	8.518	1.969	0.534	0.109
CHI	8-7	0.454	48.288	48.288	11.895	2.305	0.457	0.116
TEN	6-9	0.451	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	6-9	0.427	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	4-10	0.355	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	4-10-1	0.353	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	4-11	0.333	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-11	0.332	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	4-11	0.296	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	6-9	0.290	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-12	0.282	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	7-8	0.277	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-13	0.229	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	4-11	0.173	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 15, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to clinch a Playoff berth: Seattle (Week 13, Final)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Denver (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

2013-12-22

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 17

This week had only 4 bowls, and 4 lower-division finals and semi-finals, but there were quite a few teams that moved one or two spots. However, they were all lower than #13 (previously #14) Fresno State, so nothing earth-shattering at the top.

1	Florida State	13-0
2	Auburn	12-1
3	Michigan State	12-1
4	Ohio State	12-1
5	Stanford	11-2
6	Missouri	11-2
7	Alabama	11-1
8	Baylor	11-1
9	Northern Illinois	12-1
10	Arizona State	10-3
11	South Carolina	10-2
12	UCF	11-1
13	Fresno State	11-2
14	Clemson	10-2
15	Louisville	11-1
16	Oklahoma State	10-2
17	USC	10-4
18	Oklahoma	10-2
19	Oregon	10-2
20	Duke	10-3
21	UCLA	9-3
22	LSU	9-3
23	Rice	10-3
24	Bowling Green	10-3
25	Wisconsin	9-3
26	Ball State	10-2
27	Miami (FL)	9-3
28	Texas A&M	8-4
29	Georgia	8-4
30	Virginia Tech	8-4
31	Notre Dame	8-4
32	East Carolina	9-3
33	Brigham Young	8-4
34	Minnesota	8-4
35	Washington	8-4
36	Iowa	8-4
37	Houston	8-4
38	Louisiana-Lafayette	9-4
39	Texas	8-4
40	Nebraska	8-4
41	Marshall	9-4
42	Cincinnati	9-3
43	Boise State	8-4
44	Navy	8-4
45	Arizona	7-5
46	Michigan	7-5
47	San Diego State	8-5
48	Vanderbilt	8-4
49	Ole Miss	7-5
50	North Texas	8-4
51	Utah State	8-5
52	Georgia Tech	7-5
53	Western Kentucky	8-4
54	Toledo	7-5
55	Kansas State	7-5
56	Penn State	7-5
57	Buffalo	8-5
58	Boston College	7-5
59	Middle Tennessee	8-4
60	Mississippi State	6-6
61	Texas Tech	7-5
62	UTSA	7-5
62	Tulane	7-6
64	North Carolina	6-6
65	Colorado State	8-6
66	Maryland	7-5
67	Pittsburgh	6-6
68	UNLV	7-5
69	Arkansas State	7-5
70	Oregon State	6-6
71	Washington State	6-7
72	Ohio	7-5
73	San Jose State	6-6
74	Syracuse	6-6
75	South Alabama	6-6
76	Utah	5-7
77	Louisiana-Monroe	6-6
78	Troy	6-6
79	Florida Atlantic	6-6
80	Tennessee	5-7
81	Indiana	5-7
82	Rutgers	6-6
83	Northwestern	5-7
84	Central Michigan	6-6
85	Texas State	6-6
86	Akron	5-7
87	Colorado	4-8
88	Florida	4-8
89	Southern Methodist	5-7
90	TCU	4-8
91	Illinois	4-8
92	Wake Forest	4-8
93	Nevada	4-8
94	Wyoming	5-7
95	Kent State	4-8
96	West Virginia	4-8
97	Arkansas	3-9
98	North Carolina State	3-9
99	Iowa State	3-9
100	Tulsa	3-9
101	Kansas	3-9
102	Memphis	3-9
103	Connecticut	3-9
104	Virginia	2-10
105	Louisiana Tech	4-8
106	New Mexico	3-9
107	Kentucky	2-10
108	South Florida	2-10
109	Army	3-9
110	UAB	2-10
111	Eastern Michigan	2-10
112	New Mexico State	2-10
113	Temple	2-10
114	California	1-11
115	Air Force	2-10
116	Purdue	1-11
117	UTEP	2-10
118	Hawaii	1-11
119	Idaho	1-11
120	Massachusetts	1-11
121	Western Michigan	1-11
122	Florida International	1-11
123	Southern Miss	1-11
124	Miami (OH)	0-12

2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16

Happy Birthday Steve Garvey

Steve Garvey turns 65 today, and GCRL is giving away a 1952 Topps card to get as many birthday wishes out there as he can. I've only got one Steve Garvey card in my collection, a nice sharp 1971.

2010 Topps Update Cards Your Mom Threw Out
#CMT136 Steve Garvey

Much like George Washington, I cannot tell a lie. My lone Garvey is actually from 2010's reprint set Cards Your Mom Threw Out. It's not even the original back variation.

Happy Birthday, Steve. And thanks for the contest, GCRL.

2013-12-21

eBay Wins #93

How about some sepia? These cards are from 1991 Homers Cookies, which may or may not be an actual brand of cookies. I've never heard of them, and all references to Homers (or Homer's) cookies online seem to be to these cards, but no cookies.

An eBay seller had a lot of 10 for each of these cards, each of which I won for 9 cents, for a total of 18 cents for 20 cards.

1991 Homers Cookies
#7 Roberto Clemente

1991 Homers Cookies
#9 Lou Gehrig

These appear to be unlicensed, since the logos are mostly obscured. I've added the 9 extra copies to my trade pile, so hopefully a few people either reading the blog or perusing my Zistle trade list will want a copy.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	2510
Total Spent	$43.93
Per Card	1.75 cents

2013-12-19

Three Upcoming Contests

And only one is giving me a bonus for promoting it here. For the others I just want you in so I can have the joy of beating more people.

First, there's Cards on Cards' College Bowl Confidence Pick 'em Contest. I finished 2nd last year and showed you every single card I won in a ridiculous number of posts. I'm pretty sure it was 18. Hurry and get your picks in before kickoff of the first bowl on Saturday.

Next is a just a reminder that the 4th Annual Almost the Easiest Super Bowl Contest on the Web at Collector's Crack will be opening after the NFL regular season wraps up next Sunday.

Finally, we have the 1952 Topps Contest - aka, the Steve Garvey Contest - over at Garvey Cey Russell Lopes. He'd like to see plenty of Steve Garvey cards posted on his 65th birthday, Sunday, December 22, and is giving away a 1952 Topps card to one lucky blogger who posts one that day. Since I only have 1 in my collection, I won't spoil the surprise here, and instead I'll give you Steve Harvey for now.

Not Steve Garvey

2013-12-17

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 15, Final

Seattle over Denver

Last night, when Baltimore beat Detroit, 3 teams were directly impacted. First, Baltimore solidified its hold on the AFC North. Detroit fell a full game behind Chicago in the NFC North, and a half game behind Green Bay. As discussed yesterday, only 1 NFC North team will make the playoffs. The other casualty of last night's game was the New York Jets, who are now out of the playoffs in all tiebreaker scenarios. I discovered they can have one more key effect, however.

Pittsburgh is definitely on the outside looking in with regard to the playoff race. They've lost 8 games, and I have them with under a 0.3% chance of making a wildcard spot. Since I have a good friend who is a fan, I decided to figure out for him what scenario can have them make the playoffs.

First, Kansas City and Denver are both AFC West teams and both have clinched the playoffs, so one wildcard slot is gone. Pittsburgh can't catch Cincinnati or New England (or Indianapolis for that matter) so those teams must win their divisions to leave a wildcard slot open. Baltimore and Miami already have 8 wins each, so they'll have to lose both upcoming games, while Pittsburgh wins both, to force a 3-way tie at 8-8. Since Pittsburgh would have a better AFC North record than Baltimore, Baltimore would be eliminated in any scenario in which they tied Pittsburgh. San Diego must lose at least 1 game, but 2 losses would drop them to 7-9 and out of any tiebreaker. Miami beat both Pittsburgh and San Diego, though, so Pittsburgh loses both the 2-way and 3-way tie.

At first I couldn't figure out how Pittsburgh could possibly make it given Miami's tiebreakers, but then I realized the Jets could be another 8-8 team. If that happens, they would own the division record tiebreaker over Miami, so the wildcard tiebreaker would be between Pittsburgh, the Jets, and possibly San Diego, which Pittsburgh wins due to conference record in either case. So, in short, here's what Pittsburgh needs:

2 Miami losses (1 will be against the Jets)
2 Baltimore losses
1 or 2 San Diego losses
2 Jets wins (1 will be against Miami)
And, of course, 2 wins

That's only 7 games that must go their way, and then 1 out of 2 other games. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, it could all be over by kickoff Sunday, since they'll play late and Miami at Buffalo and Cleveland at the Jets will be early.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	12-2	0.821	97.625	+	99.546	63.864	41.477	27.669
CAR	10-4	0.761	53.249	97.361	86.187	50.075	24.392	14.272
KC	11-3	0.758	14.235	+	75.337	45.932	28.963	14.059
SF	10-4	0.748	2.375	98.670	72.994	33.324	16.606	9.440
DEN	11-3	0.719	85.765	+	95.421	54.826	31.411	13.707
NO	10-4	0.678	46.751	99.101	81.311	36.107	13.406	6.495
CIN	9-5	0.662	78.222	87.094	63.580	33.262	14.933	5.583
NE	10-4	0.611	93.916	98.277	79.208	35.634	14.131	4.593
ARI	9-5	0.605	-	4.867	2.851	0.778	0.286	0.116
SD	7-7	0.564	-	0.661	0.277	0.099	0.036	0.010
BAL	8-6	0.544	21.778	40.912	18.510	6.845	2.365	0.637
DET	7-7	0.543	23.999	23.999	7.272	2.126	0.554	0.194
IND	9-5	0.538	+	+	37.611	13.957	4.902	1.301
MIA	8-6	0.531	6.084	72.760	29.956	9.417	3.251	0.844
PHI	8-6	0.528	58.144	58.144	17.064	4.878	1.193	0.402
CHI	8-6	0.525	46.896	46.896	13.822	3.990	0.949	0.317
DAL	7-7	0.514	41.856	41.856	11.434	2.972	0.732	0.237
STL	6-8	0.483	-	-	-	-	-	-
GB	7-6-1	0.483	29.105	29.105	7.518	1.888	0.405	0.121
PIT	6-8	0.478	-	0.296	0.101	0.027	0.008	0.002
TEN	5-9	0.444	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	4-9-1	0.398	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	5-9	0.393	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	4-10	0.355	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	4-10	0.355	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-10	0.354	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	4-10	0.321	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-9	0.287	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-11	0.286	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-12	0.266	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	6-8	0.263	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	4-10	0.188	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 15, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to clinch a Playoff berth: Seattle (Week 13, Final)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)