Houston came out on top in a bit of an ugly game against Oakland, and Seattle won as expected over Detroit, so the playoffs are down to 10 teams, with nearly half of my weighted random samples now showing New England as the winner. They're currently 89% likely to win their next game, which is 68% likely to be against Houston, otherwise Miami, both of which allowed more points than they scored, usually a rarity in the playoffs, and especially in a wildcard team.
By my numbers the Houston win was an upset, but that's because my system has no idea that Oakland's starting QB was injured, and they weren't really the same team they were for the majority of the regular season. That's a limitation of the system, but one that's wayyy too complex of a problem for me to try to correct in the free time I have. FiveThirtyEight has attempted to make adjustments to Elo ratings based on missing players, or in baseball, that day's starting pitcher, but I just know the team with an injured player is some degree of overrated and roll with it.
Now for today's picks:
Miami at Pittsburgh:
As I've mentioned before, a good friend of mine is a Steelers fan, so I'm on the bandwagon for his sake.
New York Giants at Green Bay:
This is a close matchup, but I see most people claiming Green Bay as heavy favorites. I'll be rooting for Green Bay, but if I had any stake in this game, I'd be really nervous that the Giants would pull off the upset.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 14-2 | 0.845 | ++ | ++ | ++ | 88.67 | 66.81 | 47.85 |
| DAL | 13-3 | 0.722 | ++ | ++ | ++ | 65.97 | 36.59 | 15.23 |
| ATL | 11-5 | 0.701 | ++ | ++ | ++ | 56.89 | 30.14 | 11.87 |
| KC | 12-4 | 0.661 | ++ | ++ | ++ | 59.69 | 18.94 | 9.04 |
| SEA | 10-5-1 | 0.640 | ++ | ++ | ++ | 43.11 | 19.93 | 6.67 |
| PIT | 11-5 | 0.645 | ++ | ++ | 67.52 | 32.51 | 9.75 | 4.48 |
| GB | 10-6 | 0.580 | ++ | ++ | 51.48 | 17.86 | 7.12 | 2.03 |
| NYG | 11-5 | 0.565 | - | ++ | 48.52 | 16.18 | 6.22 | 1.71 |
| HOU | 9-7 | 0.381 | ++ | ++ | ++ | 14.64 | 2.81 | 0.64 |
| MIA | 10-6 | 0.466 | - | ++ | 32.48 | 4.48 | 1.68 | 0.49 |
| ARI | 7-8-1 | 0.606 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DEN | 9-7 | 0.585 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| PHI | 7-9 | 0.577 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| OAK | 12-4 | 0.558 | - | ++ | - | - | - | - |
| BAL | 8-8 | 0.549 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| MIN | 8-8 | 0.547 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| BUF | 7-9 | 0.540 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| IND | 8-8 | 0.535 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| WAS | 8-7-1 | 0.525 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NO | 7-9 | 0.524 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CIN | 6-9-1 | 0.523 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TEN | 9-7 | 0.506 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SD | 5-11 | 0.477 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DET | 9-7 | 0.475 | - | ++ | - | - | - | - |
| TB | 9-7 | 0.469 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CAR | 6-10 | 0.436 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| JAC | 3-13 | 0.335 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CHI | 3-13 | 0.255 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NYJ | 5-11 | 0.234 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SF | 2-14 | 0.211 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CLE | 1-15 | 0.167 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LA | 4-12 | 0.156 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 40% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)
First to 45% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 17, Final)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: New England (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: Dallas (Week 16, Saturday)
First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)
[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 17, Final] New England over Dallas
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