2017-01-09

Superbowl LI Projection, Wildcard Sunday

New England over Dallas

I rooted for the favorites and the won both games, so I've got to be happy with Sunday's results. Pittsburgh took down Miami with ease, and Green Bay eventually took over the game from the Giants. The last time all 4 home teams won in the Wildcard round was the 2011-2012 playoffs, so 5 years ago. We've also had 3 consecutive seasons of both #1 seeds making it to the Superbowl. Will we have a perfect chalk bracket this year? There's never been one in the 12-playoff-team era (since the 1990 season), or the 10-team era (1978-1989 seasons, including 1982 in which there were 16 teams due to a strike), or the 8-team seeded era (1975-1977 seasons). Before that, there weren't really seeds, since the home teams rotated from year to year

Here's who I'm rooting for Saturday:

Seattle at Atlanta:
I entered a contest and picked New England over Atlanta, so I feel like I should root for Atlanta in this one. I think I'll go against the numbers just barely and stick with Seattle, though.

Houston at New England:
Again, the contest dictates New England, but Houston would sure throw a wrench into everyone's expectations. I have them just over 10% likely to win this game, and about 175:1 odds to win the Superbowl. I'm sure they won't, but I'll root for Houston to upset the apple cart.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE14-20.845++++++89.8566.7947.83
DAL13-30.722++++++65.3136.2214.97
ATL11-50.701++++++56.8830.0711.75
KC12-40.661++++++51.8616.287.77
PIT11-50.645++++++48.1414.436.62
SEA10-5-10.640++++++43.1219.886.59
GB10-60.580++++++34.6913.843.90
HOU9-70.381++++++10.152.500.57
ARI7-8-10.606------
DEN9-70.585------
PHI7-90.577------
NYG11-50.565-++----
OAK12-40.558-++----
BAL8-80.549------
MIN8-80.547------
BUF7-90.540------
IND8-80.535------
WAS8-7-10.525------
NO7-90.524------
CIN6-9-10.523------
TEN9-70.506------
SD5-110.477------
DET9-70.475-++----
TB9-70.469------
MIA10-60.466-++----
CAR6-100.436------
JAC3-130.335------
CHI3-130.255------
NYJ5-110.234------
SF2-140.211------
CLE1-150.167------
LA4-120.156------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 40% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)
First to 45% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 17, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: New England (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: Dallas (Week 16, Saturday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 17, Final] New England over Dallas
[Wildcard Saturday] New England over Dallas

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