Tenets of Wilson: 2023-12

2023-12-31

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 17, Saturday

Baltimore over San Francisco

Dallas edged out Detroit with a controversial penalty call at the end of the game, but everyone but Detroit fans will forget that in a week or two. Both teams were already in the playoffs, and Dallas now has a bit better chance of taking their division from Philadelphia, but at the top, everything stays the same.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	11-4	0.781	++	++	95.5	68.6	44.0	24.8
BAL	12-3	0.791	95.7	++	94.2	65.7	42.2	24.7
DAL	11-5	0.767	34.0	++	74.1	49.4	28.6	15.6
MIA	11-4	0.729	74.5	++	74.3	44.7	22.1	11.1
BUF	9-6	0.724	25.5	92.1	57.0	30.6	15.5	7.7
KC	9-6	0.644	95.6	96.9	45.9	20.3	8.1	3.3
DET	11-5	0.596	++	++	59.3	23.9	8.6	3.0
CLE	11-5	0.598	4.3	++	62.0	22.3	7.8	2.9
PHI	11-4	0.545	66.0	++	61.6	24.0	7.2	2.2
TB	8-7	0.550	89.7	89.8	31.4	11.6	4.0	1.3
LAR	8-7	0.547	-	75.8	31.5	10.2	3.6	1.1
JAX	8-7	0.477	64.5	77.4	27.1	6.9	1.8	0.5
MIN	7-8	0.532	-	27.5	10.8	3.1	1.1	0.3
HOU	8-7	0.494	18.8	39.7	13.5	3.5	1.0	0.3
SEA	8-7	0.438	-	63.0	19.6	4.5	1.2	0.3
GB	7-8	0.504	-	26.5	9.9	2.7	0.9	0.2
IND	8-7	0.468	16.7	41.2	12.4	2.9	0.8	0.2
NO	7-8	0.570	5.9	9.3	3.6	1.3	0.5	0.2
LV	7-8	0.480	2.6	19.0	5.1	1.1	0.4	0.1
CIN	8-7	0.447	-	17.0	4.5	1.0	0.3	0.1
ATL	7-8	0.498	4.4	7.9	2.6	0.7	0.2	0.1
PIT	8-7	0.420	-	13.0	3.1	0.6	0.2	0.0
DEN	7-8	0.408	1.8	3.8	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0
CHI	6-9	0.439	-	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
LAC	5-10	0.418	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	5-10	0.398	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	6-10	0.282	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	3-12	0.274	-	-	-	-	-	-
WSH	4-11	0.274	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-11	0.257	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	2-13	0.231	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-10	0.204	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final)
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Friday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 13, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 13, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Saturday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Saturday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 17, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco

2023-12-29

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 17, Thursday

Baltimore over San Francisco

With only 4 regular season gamedays left, stuff's going to start happening fast. For example, last night we had one game, and one clinch, with Cleveland now guaranteed a playoff spot. It'll probably be a wildcard, but they have a 4% chance of taking the NFC North away from Baltimore. Speaking of them, notice that San Francisco is on top of the charts but Baltimore is still listed as my projected winner. That's because I sort by chances to win the Super Bowl, which has San Francisco on top (24.93% to 24.90%) with a (currently) easier path, but Baltimore is the stronger team and would be favored in a matchup.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	11-4	0.781	++	++	94.9	67.9	44.3	24.9
BAL	12-3	0.791	95.7	++	94.2	65.7	42.2	24.9
DAL	10-5	0.759	24.3	++	73.0	47.5	27.3	14.6
MIA	11-4	0.729	74.5	++	74.3	44.7	22.1	11.3
BUF	9-6	0.724	25.5	92.1	57.0	30.6	15.5	7.8
KC	9-6	0.644	95.6	96.9	45.9	20.3	8.1	3.4
DET	11-4	0.596	++	++	61.6	26.4	9.4	3.3
CLE	11-5	0.598	4.3	++	62.0	22.3	7.8	2.9
PHI	11-4	0.545	75.7	++	60.5	23.6	7.2	2.2
TB	8-7	0.550	89.7	89.8	30.0	11.4	4.0	1.3
LAR	8-7	0.547	-	75.8	32.1	10.3	3.7	1.2
JAX	8-7	0.477	64.5	77.4	27.1	6.9	1.8	0.5
MIN	7-8	0.532	-	27.4	11.1	3.2	1.1	0.3
SEA	8-7	0.438	-	63.0	20.3	4.7	1.3	0.3
HOU	8-7	0.494	18.8	39.7	13.5	3.5	1.0	0.3
GB	7-8	0.504	-	26.5	10.2	2.8	0.9	0.2
IND	8-7	0.468	16.7	41.2	12.4	2.9	0.8	0.2
NO	7-8	0.570	5.9	9.3	3.6	1.3	0.5	0.2
LV	7-8	0.480	2.6	19.0	5.1	1.1	0.4	0.1
CIN	8-7	0.447	-	17.0	4.5	1.0	0.3	0.1
ATL	7-8	0.498	4.4	7.9	2.6	0.8	0.2	0.1
PIT	8-7	0.420	-	13.0	3.1	0.6	0.2	0.0
DEN	7-8	0.408	1.8	3.8	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0
CHI	6-9	0.439	-	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
LAC	5-10	0.418	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	5-10	0.398	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	6-10	0.282	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	3-12	0.274	-	-	-	-	-	-
WSH	4-11	0.274	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-11	0.257	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	2-13	0.231	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-10	0.204	-	-	-	-	-	-

2023-12-26

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 16, Final

Baltimore over San Francisco

I don't always look very far forward in the schedule, so I didn't realize San Francisco and Baltimore would be playing Monday Night until sometime this weekend. Both are still favored to win their conferences, but a nice tidy result is that Baltimore is now favored to win the rematch. The only other elimination yesterday was the New York Giants, who were holding onto slim playoff hopes at 5-9 but with a loss to Philadelphia, now take their proper place at the bottom of the chart, having the worst point differential in the league. The early game featured Kansas City, absolutely refusing to lock up their playoff spot and losing to Las Vegas. 2 more losses and 2 more wins by Vegas and/or Denver could leave Kansas City out of the playoffs completely. Of course, with 8 teams eliminated and 4 in single digit probabilities, so close they are probably already in offseason mode, games can get a little unpredictable in the last few weeks.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	12-3	0.791	96.9	++	94.1	66.4	42.7	25.2
SF	11-4	0.781	++	++	94.9	67.9	44.3	24.9
DAL	10-5	0.759	24.3	++	72.9	47.5	27.3	14.6
MIA	11-4	0.729	74.5	++	74.8	45.6	22.5	11.5
BUF	9-6	0.724	25.5	91.9	57.0	30.9	15.6	7.9
KC	9-6	0.644	95.6	96.8	46.7	20.9	8.3	3.5
DET	11-4	0.596	++	++	61.6	26.4	9.4	3.3
PHI	11-4	0.545	75.7	++	60.5	23.6	7.2	2.2
CLE	10-5	0.567	3.1	99.9	58.0	19.1	6.2	2.1
TB	8-7	0.550	89.7	89.8	30.0	11.5	4.0	1.3
LAR	8-7	0.547	-	75.8	32.1	10.3	3.7	1.2
JAX	8-7	0.477	64.5	77.1	28.7	7.3	1.9	0.5
MIN	7-8	0.532	-	27.5	11.1	3.2	1.1	0.3
HOU	8-7	0.494	18.8	39.6	14.0	3.7	1.0	0.3
SEA	8-7	0.438	-	63.0	20.3	4.7	1.3	0.3
GB	7-8	0.504	-	26.5	10.2	2.8	0.9	0.2
IND	8-7	0.468	16.7	40.9	12.9	3.1	0.8	0.2
NO	7-8	0.570	5.9	9.3	3.6	1.3	0.5	0.2
LV	7-8	0.480	2.6	18.9	5.1	1.2	0.4	0.1
CIN	8-7	0.447	-	17.9	4.7	1.1	0.3	0.1
ATL	7-8	0.498	4.4	7.9	2.6	0.8	0.2	0.1
PIT	8-7	0.420	-	13.0	3.1	0.7	0.2	0.0
DEN	7-8	0.408	1.8	3.8	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0
CHI	6-9	0.439	-	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
LAC	5-10	0.418	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	5-10	0.399	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	6-9	0.311	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	3-12	0.274	-	-	-	-	-	-
WSH	4-11	0.274	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-11	0.257	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	2-13	0.231	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-10	0.204	-	-	-	-	-	-

2023-12-25

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 16, Sunday

San Francisco over Baltimore.

There were no new playoff eliminations Sunday, but Miami did clinch a playoff spot and Detroit clinched the NFC North, also eliminating Minnesota from winning that title. I figured that hadn't happened for awhile, and as it turns out, technically it never happened. Detroit last won their division back in 1993, when it was the NFC Central and included Tampa Bay.

Belichick Watch!
Bill Belichick now has 163 career losses with 2 games to play. The record is 165, so at most he can tie it this year. Assuming no ties and no quitting/firing, here's his likelihood of finishing the season at each record.

Record	Pct	Result
0-2	49.93	an unsatisfying tie
1-1	44.99	Maybe next year
2-0	5.07	Maybe next year

New England beat Denver and keeps Bill out of the record books alone for at least this year. We'll see if he is a head coach there or elsewhere next year. For now I guess we can track to see if he's at least still on track to tie it, which will be as unsatisfying as when Jeff Fisher was fired after tying it.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	11-3	0.791	++	++	98.0	72.6	47.9	28.6
BAL	11-3	0.771	83.3	++	90.4	61.3	37.8	20.8
DAL	10-5	0.759	35.3	++	73.3	48.3	26.5	14.6
MIA	11-4	0.729	75.7	++	72.7	43.8	23.1	11.4
BUF	9-6	0.724	24.3	91.9	53.7	29.6	15.7	7.7
KC	9-5	0.653	98.7	99.1	56.2	27.1	11.5	4.7
DET	11-4	0.596	++	++	60.4	26.2	8.9	3.3
CLE	10-5	0.567	16.7	99.9	59.1	20.5	6.9	2.3
PHI	10-4	0.531	64.7	++	54.0	19.6	5.6	1.7
TB	8-7	0.550	89.7	89.7	32.7	12.0	4.0	1.3
LAR	8-7	0.547	-	74.9	32.2	9.3	3.4	1.1
JAX	8-7	0.477	64.2	78.4	27.9	7.5	2.0	0.5
MIN	7-8	0.532	-	27.7	11.4	3.1	1.1	0.3
HOU	8-7	0.494	18.8	43.2	14.7	4.1	1.2	0.3
SEA	8-7	0.438	-	63.2	20.9	4.3	1.2	0.3
IND	8-7	0.468	17.0	46.8	14.7	3.7	1.0	0.3
GB	7-8	0.504	-	26.6	10.4	2.6	0.8	0.2
NO	7-8	0.570	5.9	9.4	3.8	1.3	0.5	0.2
CIN	8-7	0.447	-	19.4	5.0	1.2	0.3	0.1
ATL	7-8	0.498	4.4	8.0	2.8	0.8	0.2	0.1
PIT	8-7	0.420	-	13.1	3.4	0.8	0.2	0.0
LV	6-8	0.467	0.7	5.6	1.5	0.4	0.1	0.0
DEN	7-8	0.409	0.6	2.7	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0
CHI	6-9	0.439	-	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	5-9	0.213	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
LAC	5-10	0.418	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	5-10	0.399	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	6-9	0.311	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	3-12	0.274	-	-	-	-	-	-
WSH	4-11	0.274	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-11	0.257	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	2-13	0.231	-	-	-	-	-	-

2023-12-24

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 16, Saturday

San Francisco over Baltimore.

I'm not sure I'm a fan of these Saturday games, but it's a little more allowable on a holiday weekend. Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati to stay alive in the playoff race, and Buffalo eliminated the LA Chargers with a 2-point win.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	11-3	0.791	++	++	97.5	72.4	47.9	28.8
BAL	11-3	0.771	91.0	++	91.8	62.6	39.4	21.7
DAL	10-4	0.755	42.6	++	74.7	49.9	27.0	14.9
MIA	10-4	0.721	62.4	98.9	68.9	40.4	21.1	10.3
BUF	9-6	0.724	37.6	79.5	47.6	26.4	14.1	6.9
KC	9-5	0.653	97.8	98.9	60.8	30.0	12.7	5.3
DET	10-4	0.586	92.1	99.7	56.6	23.5	7.9	2.9
PHI	10-4	0.531	57.4	++	54.7	19.8	5.7	1.8
CLE	9-5	0.541	9.0	93.8	44.7	15.0	4.8	1.5
LAR	8-7	0.547	-	77.6	33.4	9.7	3.5	1.2
JAX	8-6	0.512	59.4	77.9	32.3	9.9	3.0	0.9
MIN	7-7	0.546	7.9	54.5	23.6	7.2	2.5	0.8
TB	7-7	0.512	68.2	71.6	25.4	8.3	2.5	0.8
HOU	8-6	0.522	21.0	55.5	22.4	7.0	2.2	0.7
IND	8-6	0.502	19.6	54.9	20.2	6.1	1.8	0.5
NO	7-8	0.570	21.5	24.3	9.9	3.7	1.3	0.5
GB	6-8	0.498	-	20.0	7.6	1.9	0.6	0.2
SEA	7-7	0.433	-	39.9	12.8	2.6	0.7	0.2
ATL	6-8	0.455	10.3	11.8	3.6	1.0	0.3	0.1
CIN	8-7	0.447	-	11.3	3.3	0.8	0.2	0.1
DEN	7-7	0.414	1.5	15.9	4.3	1.0	0.2	0.1
PIT	8-7	0.420	-	10.2	2.7	0.6	0.2	0.0
LV	6-8	0.467	0.7	3.3	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.0
CHI	5-9	0.418	-	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	5-9	0.214	-	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
LAC	5-10	0.418	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	5-9	0.406	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-9	0.301	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	3-11	0.294	-	-	-	-	-	-
WSH	4-10	0.278	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-11	0.251	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	2-12	0.233	-	-	-	-	-	-

2023-12-22

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 16, Thursday

San Francisco over Baltimore.

The LA Rams beat New Orleans on Thursday night, which didn't eliminate or clinch anything, but did move the Rams into a much better position to make the playoffs. That's a rivalry that meant a lot to me years ago when the Rams were in St. Louis and in the same division with New Orleans. They even had a playoff matchup one year.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	11-3	0.791	++	++	97.5	72.4	48.0	28.9
BAL	11-3	0.771	92.3	++	92.3	63.9	40.5	22.3
DAL	10-4	0.755	42.7	++	74.8	49.9	27.0	15.0
MIA	10-4	0.721	68.2	98.8	70.5	42.1	22.0	10.7
KC	9-5	0.653	97.7	98.7	61.7	30.5	13.0	5.4
BUF	8-6	0.719	31.8	63.7	37.8	20.8	11.0	5.3
DET	10-4	0.586	92.1	99.7	56.7	23.5	7.9	2.9
PHI	10-4	0.531	57.3	++	54.7	19.9	5.7	1.8
CLE	9-5	0.541	7.7	93.6	44.3	14.9	4.9	1.5
LAR	8-7	0.547	-	76.7	33.0	9.6	3.5	1.2
JAX	8-6	0.512	59.4	74.5	31.5	9.7	3.0	0.9
MIN	7-7	0.546	7.9	54.0	23.4	7.2	2.5	0.8
TB	7-7	0.512	68.2	71.4	25.4	8.3	2.5	0.8
HOU	8-6	0.522	21.0	54.6	22.3	7.0	2.3	0.7
IND	8-6	0.502	19.6	50.4	18.8	5.6	1.7	0.5
NO	7-8	0.570	21.5	24.2	9.8	3.7	1.3	0.5
CIN	8-6	0.492	-	42.2	14.4	4.0	1.3	0.3
SEA	7-7	0.433	-	42.0	13.5	2.8	0.8	0.2
GB	6-8	0.498	-	19.7	7.5	1.9	0.6	0.2
ATL	6-8	0.455	10.3	11.7	3.6	1.0	0.3	0.1
DEN	7-7	0.414	1.5	16.7	4.5	1.0	0.3	0.1
LV	6-8	0.467	0.8	3.1	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.0
PIT	7-7	0.367	-	3.7	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0
CHI	5-9	0.418	-	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	5-9	0.214	-	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
LAC	5-9	0.422	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
TEN	5-9	0.406	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-9	0.301	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	3-11	0.294	-	-	-	-	-	-
WSH	4-10	0.278	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-11	0.251	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	2-12	0.233	-	-	-	-	-	-

2023-12-19

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 15, Final

San Francisco over Baltimore.

I haven't run the numbers on this, but it feels like we're getting a lot more upsets in night games this year. Seattle needed a win just to get to .500, and they got it over Philadelphia, who was the NFC favorite just a few weeks ago. That kept the NFC East race interesting after Dallas also lost this week. That loss also boosted San Francisco from 73% to 89% to get the #1 seed and the bye week.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	11-3	0.791	++	++	97.6	72.5	48.0	28.9
BAL	11-3	0.771	92.3	++	92.3	63.9	40.5	22.3
DAL	10-4	0.755	42.7	++	74.1	49.4	26.7	14.8
MIA	10-4	0.721	68.2	98.8	70.5	42.1	22.0	10.7
KC	9-5	0.653	97.7	98.7	61.7	30.5	13.0	5.4
BUF	8-6	0.718	31.8	63.7	37.8	20.8	11.0	5.3
DET	10-4	0.586	92.1	99.9	57.6	23.8	8.0	3.0
PHI	10-4	0.531	57.3	++	54.2	19.7	5.7	1.8
CLE	9-5	0.541	7.7	93.5	44.3	14.9	4.9	1.5
NO	7-7	0.587	37.4	51.8	22.2	8.3	3.1	1.2
MIN	7-7	0.546	7.9	56.8	24.8	7.6	2.6	0.9
JAX	8-6	0.512	59.4	74.6	31.5	9.7	3.0	0.9
TB	7-7	0.512	55.0	69.6	25.2	7.9	2.4	0.7
HOU	8-6	0.522	21.0	54.6	22.3	7.0	2.3	0.7
LAR	7-7	0.532	-	41.5	16.9	4.7	1.7	0.5
IND	8-6	0.502	19.6	50.4	18.8	5.6	1.7	0.5
CIN	8-6	0.492	-	42.2	14.4	4.1	1.3	0.3
SEA	7-7	0.433	-	48.6	15.9	3.3	0.9	0.2
GB	6-8	0.498	-	21.6	8.2	2.0	0.7	0.2
DEN	7-7	0.414	1.5	16.7	4.5	1.0	0.3	0.1
ATL	6-8	0.455	7.6	9.5	2.9	0.8	0.2	0.1
LV	6-8	0.467	0.8	3.1	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.0
PIT	7-7	0.367	-	3.7	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0
CHI	5-9	0.418	-	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	5-9	0.214	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
LAC	5-9	0.422	-	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
TEN	5-9	0.406	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-9	0.301	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	3-11	0.294	-	-	-	-	-	-
WSH	4-10	0.278	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-11	0.251	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	2-12	0.233	-	-	-	-	-	-

2023-12-18

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 15, Sunday

San Francisco over Baltimore.

Now some stuff is starting to happen. We had 3 teams clinch playoff spots, our first division winner declared, 4 playoff eliminations, and 6 division eliminations, all from just 11 games on Sunday. While Baltimore is still on top of the AFC, they looked pretty bad for at least the first half on Sunday night. Luckily for them Jacksonville was worse and for even longer, so they wound up winning the game by a respectable-looking 23-7. Speaking of Sunday night...

Belichick Watch!
Bill Belichick now has 163 career losses with 3 games to play. The record is 165, so it's definitely something he could break. Assuming no ties and no quitting/firing, here's his likelihood of finishing the season at each record.

Record	Pct	Result
0-3	33.76	Broken!
1-2	46.64	an unsatisfying tie
2-1	17.97	Maybe next year
3-0	1.63	Maybe next year

New England was so bad they flexed their game against Kansas City out of the Sunday night slot. They lost again, and he's now at a 33.76% chance of breaking the record, up from 26.51%, and also up to 46.64% to tie it, slightly up from 43.90%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	11-3	0.791	++	++	93.9	68.3	45.7	27.5
BAL	11-3	0.771	92.3	++	92.3	63.9	40.5	22.5
DAL	10-4	0.755	26.8	++	73.6	48.0	26.8	14.9
MIA	10-4	0.721	68.2	98.8	70.5	42.1	22.0	10.9
KC	9-5	0.653	97.7	98.7	61.7	30.5	13.0	5.5
BUF	8-6	0.718	31.8	63.7	37.8	20.8	11.0	5.4
DET	10-4	0.586	92.1	100.0	56.4	22.6	7.9	2.9
PHI	10-3	0.536	73.2	++	62.8	24.6	7.2	2.3
CLE	9-5	0.541	7.7	93.5	44.3	14.9	4.9	1.6
NO	7-7	0.587	37.4	55.9	22.5	8.7	3.4	1.3
MIN	7-7	0.546	7.9	62.2	26.9	8.8	3.0	1.0
JAX	8-6	0.512	59.4	74.6	31.5	9.7	3.0	0.9
TB	7-7	0.512	55.0	74.5	25.0	8.2	2.6	0.8
HOU	8-6	0.522	21.0	54.6	22.3	7.0	2.3	0.7
LAR	7-7	0.532	-	45.2	18.1	5.6	2.0	0.6
IND	8-6	0.502	19.6	50.4	18.8	5.6	1.7	0.5
CIN	8-6	0.492	-	42.2	14.4	4.0	1.3	0.4
GB	6-8	0.498	-	25.2	9.5	2.6	0.8	0.2
SEA	6-7	0.429	-	25.5	8.1	1.7	0.4	0.1
ATL	6-8	0.455	7.6	10.4	3.0	0.8	0.2	0.1
DEN	7-7	0.414	1.5	16.7	4.5	1.0	0.3	0.1
LV	6-8	0.467	0.8	3.1	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.0
PIT	7-7	0.367	-	3.7	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0
CHI	5-9	0.418	-	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYG	5-9	0.214	-	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
LAC	5-9	0.422	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-
TEN	5-9	0.406	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-9	0.301	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	3-11	0.294	-	-	-	-	-	-
WSH	4-10	0.278	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-11	0.251	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	2-12	0.233	-	-	-	-	-	-