note: I completely forgot to post this, but I've backdated it to the normal time it would have posted just to avoid confusing myself later
With the regular season over, out of nowhere, Baltimore takes over the AFC lead. They had been lurking for awhile as the strongest team, but thanks to a slightly unlucky record comparatively, and a very strong division rival and conference overall, they hadn't even officially locked up a playoff spot until the last day. I've got them at 73% likely to win at Tennessee, who is also 11-5. And they'll be favored against anyone else they play, too, though not by as much unless it's Cleveland.
As is tradition, let's see who I'm rooting for.
Indianapolis at Buffalo (55%)
I used to favor Indianapolis a lot, which might have just been residual fandom from Manning and Faulk. This year I'd like Buffalo to win a playoff game for the first time in forever.
Los Angeles Rams (51%) at Seattle
I'm picking LA, just barely, but rooting for Seattle.
Tampa Bay (72%) at Washington
I always kind of liked Tampa in the days of Warren Sapp, so sure, let's root for them here.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 11-5 | 0.791 | - | ++ | 72.90 | 46.68 | 29.61 | 17.82 |
| GB | 13-3 | 0.728 | ++ | ++ | ++ | 60.53 | 31.59 | 16.14 |
| NO | 12-4 | 0.750 | ++ | ++ | 74.66 | 44.54 | 24.52 | 13.19 |
| KC | 14-2 | 0.694 | ++ | ++ | ++ | 52.46 | 24.48 | 11.68 |
| TB | 11-5 | 0.731 | - | ++ | 72.01 | 36.90 | 19.84 | 10.21 |
| PIT | 12-4 | 0.707 | ++ | ++ | 72.38 | 34.67 | 17.21 | 8.47 |
| BUF | 13-3 | 0.709 | ++ | ++ | 55.33 | 27.06 | 13.49 | 6.66 |
| LAR | 10-6 | 0.668 | - | ++ | 51.20 | 22.76 | 10.17 | 4.49 |
| IND | 11-5 | 0.662 | - | ++ | 44.67 | 20.71 | 8.86 | 3.91 |
| SEA | 12-4 | 0.658 | ++ | ++ | 48.80 | 20.15 | 9.03 | 3.88 |
| TEN | 11-5 | 0.585 | ++ | ++ | 27.10 | 10.93 | 4.30 | 1.56 |
| WAS | 7-9 | 0.514 | ++ | ++ | 27.99 | 8.15 | 2.58 | 0.76 |
| CHI | 8-8 | 0.504 | - | ++ | 25.34 | 6.97 | 2.28 | 0.66 |
| CLE | 11-5 | 0.480 | - | ++ | 27.62 | 7.49 | 2.04 | 0.56 |
| MIA | 10-6 | 0.633 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ARI | 8-8 | 0.584 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SF | 6-10 | 0.472 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ATL | 4-12 | 0.466 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NE | 7-9 | 0.439 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LV | 8-8 | 0.427 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| MIN | 7-9 | 0.424 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LAC | 7-9 | 0.421 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CAR | 5-11 | 0.395 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DAL | 6-10 | 0.365 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HOU | 4-12 | 0.359 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| PHI | 4-11-1 | 0.335 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NYG | 6-10 | 0.322 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CIN | 4-11-1 | 0.279 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DET | 5-11 | 0.273 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DEN | 5-11 | 0.271 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| JAC | 1-15 | 0.189 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NYJ | 2-14 | 0.126 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye and homefield in conference playoffs: Kansas City (Week 16, Sunday)
First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)
[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 14, Final] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Thursday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Friday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
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