Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 12, Final

Pittsburgh over New Orleans

With a win over Baltimore, Pittsburgh extended their franchise-best start to 11 wins (previously it was 7-0). I assumed they would have clinched a playoff spot, but they're not quite there. The chart shows 100% because it rounds to 2 decimal places, but it's more like 99.999998% of the 2 billion simulations I ran. There are just enough teams who can finish ahead of Pittsburgh that it's possible for them to wind up tied for the 7th seed in the AFC with Las Vegas, and lose based on tiebreakers. Kansas City also has not clinched, but has a mere 99.9955% chance of making the playoffs.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	11-0	0.728	99.74	100.00	93.74	61.96	37.98	23.81
NO	9-2	0.677	99.10	99.98	84.72	52.48	31.62	16.13
KC	10-1	0.680	99.80	100.00	69.60	42.06	21.22	12.14
GB	8-3	0.607	96.94	99.13	64.88	34.90	17.03	7.42
MIA	7-4	0.659	34.72	81.08	47.75	23.71	11.87	6.51
LAR	7-4	0.603	33.74	92.39	54.01	27.16	13.33	5.76
TB	7-5	0.615	0.88	77.66	43.29	21.57	11.10	4.93
SEA	8-3	0.560	57.01	98.00	57.13	26.49	11.60	4.53
BAL	6-5	0.637	-	63.65	33.47	15.12	7.42	3.90
TEN	8-3	0.567	82.43	96.12	47.78	19.47	7.56	3.42
ARI	6-5	0.585	8.42	64.19	33.85	15.86	7.57	3.13
IND	7-4	0.591	17.37	60.68	29.58	12.12	5.27	2.52
BUF	8-3	0.531	64.14	90.94	40.24	14.69	5.30	2.22
CLE	8-3	0.460	0.26	73.32	26.31	7.64	2.35	0.83
WAS	4-7	0.496	38.97	39.24	16.10	6.16	2.33	0.77
SF	5-6	0.514	0.82	20.67	8.84	3.43	1.43	0.50
MIN	5-6	0.477	1.37	24.35	9.24	3.34	1.28	0.40
NYG	4-7	0.414	38.59	38.63	12.89	3.98	1.21	0.32
LV	6-5	0.454	0.20	27.49	9.37	2.66	0.84	0.29
CHI	5-6	0.424	1.67	19.91	6.66	2.05	0.68	0.19
PHI	3-7-1	0.419	17.50	17.52	5.93	1.87	0.58	0.16
NE	5-6	0.444	1.14	5.86	1.90	0.51	0.16	0.05
ATL	4-7	0.526	0.01	1.69	0.69	0.28	0.12	0.04
DAL	3-8	0.328	4.94	4.97	1.28	0.30	0.07	0.01
HOU	4-7	0.446	0.20	0.68	0.22	0.06	0.02	0.01
DET	4-7	0.368	0.02	1.35	0.38	0.10	0.03	0.01
CAR	4-8	0.460	-	0.31	0.11	0.04	0.01	0.00
DEN	4-7	0.330	-	0.17	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
LAC	3-8	0.458	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CIN	2-8-1	0.384	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	1-10	0.328	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	0-11	0.219	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans