Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 11, Sunday

Pittsburgh over New Orleans

Pittsburgh and New Orleans both won to hold onto their spots on top of each conference, but more interesting today are the teams at the bottom.

None of my simulations had the New York Jets making the playoffs, but none of the official sources are listing eliminations yet. Perhaps that is because of the potential for adding an 8th team per conference this year. Assuming we play all games and only 14 teams make the playoffs, the Jets are out. I did my standard way of checking this by gradually building a favorable schedule for them, forcing a bunch of games to go their way, such as letting them finish 6-10, making all interconference games go to the NFC team, then having all 7+ win teams win the rest of their games, but it's pretty clear from the current standings and schedule. In each AFC division, the leader has over 6 wins, so will not be caught by the Jets. The AFC North and South both have 2 teams with 7+ wins, so at best the Jets could reach the third wildcard. But, Miami and Las Vegas, both currently 6-4, have a game against each other remaining, which will put at least one of them above the Jets. Therefore, 10 losses will not let you into the AFC playoffs this year.

Other eliminations include Cincinnati from the NFC North title since the best they can hope for is 8-7-1 against Pittsburgh's 10-6, and Jacksonville, who can only reach 7-9, while their 7-3 division rivals will play each other next week, with the winner (or tie-ers) out of reach.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	10-0	0.712	97.69	99.98	90.47	58.29	34.91	21.93
KC	9-1	0.673	97.48	99.88	71.95	42.90	22.15	12.95
NO	8-2	0.628	85.06	99.75	81.29	45.95	25.48	12.03
TB	7-3	0.622	14.93	93.21	62.07	33.66	18.17	8.47
LAR	6-3	0.603	38.47	88.37	53.39	28.12	14.50	6.48
GB	7-3	0.583	87.00	94.34	56.71	29.05	14.21	6.06
IND	7-3	0.628	61.38	83.58	47.39	22.72	10.78	5.78
BAL	6-4	0.641	1.52	73.08	39.61	18.94	9.56	5.27
MIA	6-4	0.622	38.68	69.08	37.55	17.39	8.19	4.34
SEA	7-3	0.549	38.71	92.98	52.31	24.17	10.93	4.30
ARI	6-4	0.587	22.07	74.10	39.82	19.97	9.94	4.28
TEN	7-3	0.536	38.53	82.86	36.51	13.86	5.27	2.33
BUF	7-3	0.512	60.21	78.44	33.86	12.07	4.31	1.81
LV	6-4	0.517	2.51	51.59	21.16	7.48	2.80	1.19
CLE	7-3	0.456	0.79	56.98	20.07	5.97	1.91	0.70
CHI	5-5	0.457	10.93	31.59	11.93	4.40	1.63	0.51
PHI	3-6-1	0.432	35.34	35.36	11.91	4.12	1.41	0.41
WAS	3-7	0.440	23.72	23.78	8.18	2.88	1.01	0.30
SF	4-6	0.508	0.75	8.80	3.80	1.55	0.66	0.23
MIN	4-6	0.475	1.81	11.22	4.40	1.69	0.67	0.22
NYG	3-7	0.411	23.31	23.35	7.41	2.42	0.78	0.21
DAL	3-7	0.365	17.63	17.66	4.91	1.40	0.39	0.09
CAR	4-7	0.462	0.00	2.20	0.82	0.30	0.11	0.04
NE	4-6	0.439	1.11	2.97	0.98	0.27	0.09	0.03
DET	4-6	0.392	0.25	3.07	0.98	0.30	0.09	0.02
LAC	3-7	0.477	0.00	0.44	0.15	0.04	0.02	0.01
DEN	4-6	0.382	0.02	0.87	0.23	0.05	0.01	0.00
ATL	3-7	0.458	0.01	0.22	0.08	0.03	0.01	0.00
HOU	3-7	0.415	0.09	0.26	0.08	0.02	0.01	0.00
CIN	2-7-1	0.391	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	1-9	0.333	-	0.00	0.00	-	-	-
NYJ	0-10	0.252	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans