Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 12, Thursday

Pittsburgh over New Orleans

There were 3 games scheduled, but only two were played. Washington and Dallas were both 3-7, as was Houston, who faced 4-6 Detroit. The total playoff chances at the start of the day for these 4 teams summed to under 45 percentage points, and 40 of that is because someone has to win the NFC East. So let's ignore yesterday's games and dig into some history.

Of course, the primetime game was added in 2006, and for quite awhile before that Dallas and Detroit were the only teams to host Thanksgiving games annually. I was actually surprised the primetime game has only been around since then, as it felt to me like maybe it started in the late 1990s. I was also surprised to read that the St. Louis (football) Cardinals hosted in lieu of Dallas in 1975 and 1977, but otherwise Detroit and Dallas's streak goes all the way back to the 1970 merger (and beyond). 1967-1969 actually featured 4 games, 2 each in the NFL and AFL.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	10-0	0.712	97.45	99.97	90.24	58.14	34.82	21.90
KC	9-1	0.673	97.49	99.88	72.22	43.08	22.25	13.02
NO	8-2	0.628	92.34	99.74	79.88	45.11	25.01	11.81
LAR	7-3	0.608	49.01	95.43	61.82	33.22	17.28	7.81
TB	7-4	0.619	7.65	88.42	52.61	28.04	15.05	6.96
GB	7-3	0.583	87.42	94.37	56.48	28.75	14.09	6.00
IND	7-3	0.628	60.52	82.44	46.68	22.36	10.62	5.70
BAL	6-4	0.642	1.71	74.01	40.19	19.24	9.70	5.35
MIA	6-4	0.622	38.70	69.18	37.61	17.42	8.21	4.36
ARI	6-4	0.587	19.53	74.35	39.81	19.90	9.91	4.27
SEA	7-3	0.549	30.98	92.75	52.00	23.84	10.77	4.24
TEN	7-3	0.536	39.26	82.52	36.39	13.81	5.25	2.33
BUF	7-3	0.513	60.21	78.45	33.83	12.07	4.31	1.81
LV	6-4	0.517	2.49	51.51	21.14	7.47	2.79	1.19
WAS	4-7	0.496	41.38	41.52	16.88	6.78	2.71	0.93
CLE	7-3	0.456	0.84	57.14	20.12	5.98	1.91	0.70
CHI	5-5	0.457	10.69	31.69	11.85	4.36	1.62	0.50
PHI	3-6-1	0.432	31.74	31.77	11.01	3.78	1.29	0.37
MIN	4-6	0.475	1.84	11.71	4.55	1.75	0.69	0.23
SF	4-6	0.508	0.48	8.31	3.57	1.46	0.62	0.22
NYG	3-7	0.411	22.57	22.61	7.40	2.39	0.77	0.21
NE	4-6	0.438	1.10	2.94	0.97	0.27	0.08	0.03
CAR	4-7	0.462	0.00	1.80	0.66	0.24	0.09	0.03
DAL	3-8	0.328	4.32	4.33	1.11	0.28	0.07	0.01
HOU	4-7	0.446	0.22	0.66	0.22	0.06	0.02	0.01
LAC	3-7	0.477	0.00	0.44	0.15	0.04	0.02	0.01
DET	4-7	0.368	0.05	0.89	0.26	0.07	0.02	0.01
ATL	3-7	0.458	0.01	0.32	0.11	0.04	0.02	0.01
DEN	4-6	0.382	0.02	0.87	0.22	0.05	0.01	0.00
CIN	2-7-1	0.391	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	1-9	0.333	-	0.00	0.00	-	-	-
NYJ	0-10	0.252	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans