2020-11-10

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 9, Final

Kansas City over Green Bay

Generally this is where I mention that a game between 2 bad teams doesn't really change anything. This week's teams were a combined 2-13, but with New England defeating the New York Jets, they're officially eliminated from winning the AFC East. They're not out of the playoffs entirely (especially if the NFL renders all my numbers moot by adding an 8th team in each conference), and therefore it's not impossible for them to win the Super Bowl just yet, although they never did in my 2 billion simulations this time.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC8-10.66894.1499.5476.5345.4025.6115.54
PIT8-00.63174.7899.3877.0042.2121.5512.24
BAL6-20.65524.2995.3060.0533.3118.1510.76
GB6-20.58079.1892.9462.8233.4117.397.93
NO6-20.57470.7892.9460.7331.7916.347.36
ARI5-30.59632.6176.5846.9425.5513.776.50
TB6-30.58728.0579.4348.6125.8613.656.33
LAR5-30.58824.6773.5845.2124.1512.805.94
MIA5-30.61535.7277.1742.5620.7510.345.69
SEA6-20.54640.4786.9654.5326.5312.755.38
IND5-30.59638.4763.4732.0315.047.183.82
TEN6-20.55461.1482.2539.0916.747.223.53
BUF7-20.51663.4588.2038.1314.915.852.64
PHI3-4-10.46372.2072.2928.9011.434.521.56
CHI5-40.47217.4149.0021.248.723.561.25
LV5-30.4815.7245.7217.686.252.280.95
SF4-50.5362.2620.3510.074.762.270.93
CLE5-30.4470.9236.3812.744.071.370.52
MIN3-50.4712.8215.446.472.641.080.38
WAS2-60.42315.3715.635.612.000.710.22
CAR3-60.4680.294.291.780.720.300.10
DET3-50.4260.595.922.220.810.300.09
NYG2-70.3916.916.932.290.750.250.07
NE3-50.4410.844.671.570.490.170.06
ATL3-60.4860.882.160.910.390.170.06
LAC2-60.4800.031.980.720.250.090.04
DAL2-70.3615.525.551.670.500.150.04
DEN3-50.4180.113.271.020.300.090.03
CIN2-5-10.4620.001.440.510.170.060.02
HOU2-60.4160.381.210.370.110.030.01
JAC1-70.3850.010.020.010.000.000.00
NYJ0-90.263-0.000.000.00--

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay

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