Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 3, Sunday

Baltimore over Green Bay

Today is a day which comes once every few years, where I get to explain why a team is at the top of the chart, yet my projection has them losing. In this case, Green Bay is currently the most likely league champion, and Baltimore is the second most likely. However, if you'll look at the strength column, Baltimore is a stronger team than Green Bay. So, in a matchup between them, Baltimore would be favored. Green Bay is a more likely champ overall, because they're already 83% likely to make the playoffs, versus Baltimore's paltry 75%. I modeled my projection after a contest that asked to pick the winner and loser of the Super Bowl, so that's why I've gone with this method instead of just declaring who is #1 each week. Either way, Baltimore will probably clean all of this up Monday night, win or lose.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
GB	3-0	0.547	53.51	83.17	55.38	29.32	15.37	7.94
BAL	2-0	0.559	42.16	75.19	48.28	25.92	13.85	7.36
IND	2-1	0.570	42.05	67.03	41.51	22.72	12.38	6.71
SF	2-1	0.571	23.52	63.74	40.56	22.37	12.32	6.65
PIT	3-0	0.543	42.50	76.53	48.18	24.97	12.87	6.63
SEA	3-0	0.535	36.62	75.79	48.23	24.75	12.63	6.37
CHI	3-0	0.525	41.18	77.72	48.68	24.42	12.16	6.01
BUF	3-0	0.527	53.55	74.91	44.63	22.30	11.06	5.52
KC	2-0	0.531	54.74	72.12	42.98	21.65	10.83	5.45
TB	2-1	0.540	54.28	67.20	39.38	20.46	10.51	5.35
NE	2-1	0.538	36.15	63.71	36.89	18.84	9.58	4.88
TEN	3-0	0.511	46.64	70.08	40.06	19.33	9.28	4.49
ARI	2-1	0.532	21.70	58.30	33.97	17.27	8.75	4.39
LAR	2-1	0.531	18.15	55.59	32.62	16.54	8.38	4.19
LV	2-1	0.497	29.13	47.44	24.21	11.27	5.23	2.45
DAL	1-2	0.486	39.74	43.92	20.78	9.48	4.31	1.96
CLE	2-1	0.477	12.18	40.30	19.79	8.81	3.93	1.77
NO	1-2	0.490	22.02	34.28	16.84	7.84	3.63	1.67
MIA	1-2	0.511	8.96	29.41	14.90	7.15	3.43	1.66
WAS	1-2	0.463	31.79	36.28	16.41	7.11	3.08	1.33
LAC	1-2	0.487	11.84	28.08	13.61	6.19	2.82	1.29
CAR	1-2	0.475	14.64	26.65	12.76	5.74	2.57	1.14
JAC	1-2	0.474	8.65	21.97	10.27	4.56	2.02	0.90
DET	1-2	0.463	3.46	21.09	9.91	4.30	1.87	0.81
CIN	0-2-1	0.484	3.17	15.02	7.13	3.23	1.47	0.67
PHI	0-2-1	0.450	17.54	20.38	8.79	3.69	1.55	0.65
ATL	0-3	0.474	9.06	12.98	5.90	2.66	1.19	0.53
MIN	0-3	0.459	1.85	10.48	4.81	2.07	0.89	0.38
NYG	0-3	0.424	10.93	12.43	4.98	1.96	0.77	0.31
DEN	0-3	0.444	4.29	8.19	3.47	1.43	0.59	0.25
HOU	0-3	0.438	2.66	5.77	2.40	0.98	0.40	0.17
NYJ	0-3	0.416	1.34	4.25	1.68	0.65	0.25	0.10

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington

[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington

[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay

[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay

[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay