Buffalo beat New England, but they had already clinched the division and New England was already eliminated, so the game had no huge effect on the projections. Next year I think I might track the potential seeding better. I never publish it here, but I have more data output from my software that tells me the chances of each team getting homefield advantage, which is just the #1 seed. Tracking down to #7 should be pretty simple, and going further would just mean repeating the process that finds the next wildcard over and over. That would allow me to tell you my projection for who will get the #2 seed, Buffalo or Pittsburgh, much more easily. But, let's figure it out.
Since Buffalo beat Pittsburgh head to head, they have the tiebreaker, so Pittsburgh needs a win and a Buffalo loss. I give Buffalo a 54% chance of losing Sunday against Miami, and Pittsburgh has a 73% chance of beating Cleveland. Ignoring ties, that puts Pittsburgh at 39%, and Buffalo at 61%. That will determine who faces the #6 vs #7 team, but also if both teams win, who get to host the rematch...if I did all that bracket math right.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 14-1 | 0.720 | ++ | ++ | ++ | 56.35 | 30.40 | 16.65 |
| GB | 12-3 | 0.698 | ++ | ++ | 91.02 | 52.46 | 27.67 | 13.78 |
| TB | 10-5 | 0.708 | - | ++ | 71.53 | 38.56 | 21.06 | 10.74 |
| NO | 11-4 | 0.706 | ++ | ++ | 68.47 | 39.26 | 21.00 | 10.65 |
| BAL | 10-5 | 0.735 | - | 96.26 | 57.85 | 31.64 | 17.68 | 10.01 |
| PIT | 12-3 | 0.709 | ++ | ++ | 59.80 | 32.76 | 16.46 | 8.80 |
| MIA | 10-5 | 0.697 | - | 90.81 | 52.21 | 25.46 | 12.75 | 6.63 |
| SEA | 11-4 | 0.651 | ++ | ++ | 56.54 | 26.75 | 12.54 | 5.58 |
| BUF | 12-3 | 0.667 | ++ | ++ | 49.86 | 23.48 | 10.82 | 5.25 |
| LAR | 9-6 | 0.641 | - | 84.44 | 42.06 | 18.72 | 8.78 | 3.81 |
| IND | 10-5 | 0.636 | 24.91 | 78.99 | 34.21 | 14.46 | 6.26 | 2.83 |
| TEN | 10-5 | 0.582 | 75.09 | 88.79 | 32.91 | 12.33 | 4.62 | 1.83 |
| ARI | 8-7 | 0.602 | - | 45.81 | 19.72 | 8.11 | 3.41 | 1.35 |
| CHI | 8-7 | 0.544 | - | 69.75 | 24.39 | 8.45 | 3.17 | 1.08 |
| WAS | 6-9 | 0.500 | 65.10 | 65.10 | 19.68 | 6.33 | 2.09 | 0.63 |
| CLE | 10-5 | 0.476 | - | 45.14 | 13.16 | 3.52 | 1.01 | 0.31 |
| DAL | 6-9 | 0.374 | 19.76 | 19.76 | 4.07 | 0.90 | 0.21 | 0.04 |
| NYG | 5-10 | 0.314 | 15.14 | 15.14 | 2.51 | 0.45 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| ATL | 4-11 | 0.498 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SF | 6-9 | 0.478 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CAR | 5-10 | 0.448 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LV | 7-8 | 0.425 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| MIN | 6-9 | 0.420 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NE | 6-9 | 0.409 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LAC | 6-9 | 0.389 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HOU | 4-11 | 0.360 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| PHI | 4-10-1 | 0.349 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CIN | 4-10-1 | 0.344 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DET | 5-10 | 0.274 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DEN | 5-10 | 0.271 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| JAC | 1-14 | 0.214 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NYJ | 2-13 | 0.151 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye and homefield in conference playoffs: Kansas City (Week 16, Sunday)
First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)
[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 14, Final] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Thursday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Friday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
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