Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 7, Thursday

Baltimore over Tampa Bay

The NFC East is really bad this year, and I can't imagine a matchup with less implications than the one we had Thursday night, where Philadelphia beat the New York Giants. Philadelphia bumped up one spot to now be ahead of Dallas in championship chances (a whopping 0.87%!), and the Giants fell one spot to be behind Atlanta (both at 0.06%), and pretty much nothing else changed. Philadelphia and Dallas are now close to tied at a bit over 41% each to win that terrible division, even though Philadelphia's most likely outcome in all my simulations is to finish with 6 wins.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	5-1	0.628	46.84	92.92	64.14	36.64	20.68	11.95
PIT	5-0	0.602	49.79	94.56	65.79	35.52	18.84	10.37
KC	5-1	0.586	75.08	91.90	58.83	30.63	15.51	8.28
TB	4-2	0.597	61.01	78.69	49.48	27.99	15.57	8.04
ARI	4-2	0.602	27.72	71.35	45.80	25.90	14.57	7.59
SEA	5-0	0.552	49.50	87.41	60.08	30.58	15.45	7.28
TEN	5-0	0.560	69.27	91.36	56.20	27.62	13.17	6.69
LAR	4-2	0.578	16.96	63.06	39.09	20.98	11.20	5.57
CHI	5-1	0.528	52.28	85.72	54.05	26.19	12.42	5.56
IND	4-2	0.584	30.17	67.41	37.89	19.29	9.76	5.19
GB	4-1	0.536	44.36	77.51	46.24	22.84	11.05	5.03
MIA	3-3	0.592	38.91	57.91	31.55	16.20	8.35	4.51
SF	3-3	0.537	5.82	36.12	19.47	9.55	4.67	2.13
NO	3-2	0.505	25.15	46.54	23.10	10.68	4.85	2.06
BUF	4-2	0.479	41.77	54.35	22.59	9.01	3.59	1.54
LV	3-2	0.498	16.85	40.39	17.84	7.45	3.11	1.39
CAR	3-3	0.494	12.47	30.91	14.51	6.54	2.90	1.20
CLE	4-2	0.461	3.29	46.45	19.23	7.23	2.76	1.13
NE	2-3	0.498	19.26	28.92	12.43	5.19	2.17	0.97
PHI	2-4-1	0.439	41.22	41.51	16.16	6.25	2.41	0.87
DAL	2-4	0.436	41.54	41.89	16.12	6.18	2.36	0.85
DET	2-3	0.483	2.84	16.92	7.86	3.43	1.49	0.60
DEN	2-3	0.477	6.10	18.04	7.40	2.92	1.17	0.50
LAC	1-4	0.470	1.97	9.64	3.88	1.49	0.59	0.25
WAS	1-5	0.396	12.21	12.42	4.30	1.48	0.51	0.16
ATL	1-5	0.464	1.37	2.27	0.94	0.40	0.17	0.06
NYG	1-6	0.391	5.02	5.06	1.73	0.59	0.20	0.06
CIN	1-4-1	0.445	0.07	3.08	1.16	0.42	0.16	0.06
MIN	1-5	0.440	0.52	2.64	1.06	0.42	0.16	0.06
HOU	1-5	0.439	0.41	2.06	0.76	0.27	0.10	0.04
JAC	1-5	0.403	0.15	0.90	0.30	0.10	0.03	0.01
NYJ	0-6	0.334	0.06	0.09	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay