Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 1

Baltimore over Washington

What's this? Here's a quick rundown originally taken from 2014's introductory post.

Each year I project the Super Bowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.

I'm running a little late for week 1 this year, because all of you out there forgot to remind me there are now 14 playoff teams. I think I successfully implemented this, but we'll see as time goes on. For now at least, the total chances of teams making the playoffs sum to 1400%, so I'll call it good. "WC" should perhaps be renamed, as it represents making it OUT of the wildcard round, to be one of the final 8 teams.

Baltimore is once again the AFC favorite, a position they seem to frequently hold each week 1. They certainly have at least for 3 years running now, and that would have extended to 2017 except the slightly weaker Jacksonville had an even worse looking division than Baltimore to compete against after week 1, giving them the edge.

No one fell below the dreaded 1% mark this year, with even lowly Cleveland at 1.12% likely to win the Super Bowl.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	1-0	0.531	40.54	62.29	38.33	20.10	10.52	5.54
WAS	1-0	0.519	47.70	63.77	38.74	20.04	10.34	5.26
NO	1-0	0.517	46.75	62.95	37.94	19.51	10.02	5.07
NE	1-0	0.524	39.73	60.06	36.09	18.62	9.59	4.98
SEA	1-0	0.518	31.01	59.24	36.13	18.63	9.60	4.87
KC	1-0	0.521	31.21	57.16	34.38	17.64	9.03	4.67
BUF	1-0	0.519	37.79	58.32	34.59	17.67	9.01	4.64
GB	1-0	0.511	37.26	59.43	35.45	18.00	9.13	4.57
PIT	1-0	0.520	35.18	56.74	33.75	17.25	8.81	4.54
JAC	1-0	0.513	38.90	58.38	34.31	17.30	8.70	4.43
CHI	1-0	0.507	35.90	58.42	34.63	17.47	8.80	4.37
ARI	1-0	0.508	29.90	56.78	33.76	17.06	8.61	4.29
LAR	1-0	0.508	28.37	55.94	33.23	16.76	8.45	4.21
LAC	1-0	0.510	27.87	53.60	31.29	15.66	7.83	3.95
TEN	1-0	0.506	33.59	54.66	31.57	15.68	7.77	3.90
LV	1-0	0.506	27.89	51.49	29.63	14.71	7.29	3.66
CAR	0-1	0.494	19.95	35.38	19.16	9.38	4.59	2.22
DAL	0-1	0.492	20.10	34.05	18.09	8.83	4.31	2.08
DET	0-1	0.493	13.63	31.48	16.90	8.25	4.03	1.94
SF	0-1	0.492	10.73	29.95	16.10	7.85	3.83	1.84
MIN	0-1	0.489	13.21	30.68	16.32	7.91	3.84	1.84
NYG	0-1	0.480	17.55	31.89	16.70	7.94	3.78	1.78
DEN	0-1	0.494	13.04	28.90	15.25	7.38	3.57	1.75
CIN	0-1	0.490	14.89	29.57	15.41	7.40	3.55	1.73
TB	0-1	0.483	15.29	30.26	15.81	7.56	3.62	1.71
ATL	0-1	0.482	18.00	30.48	15.77	7.54	3.60	1.70
PHI	0-1	0.481	14.65	29.30	15.26	7.27	3.46	1.63
IND	0-1	0.487	13.34	28.38	14.70	6.99	3.32	1.60
NYJ	0-1	0.481	11.75	26.32	13.42	6.31	2.97	1.42
HOU	0-1	0.479	14.17	26.50	13.43	6.29	2.95	1.40
MIA	0-1	0.476	10.73	24.57	12.40	5.78	2.69	1.27
CLE	0-1	0.469	9.39	23.06	11.43	5.24	2.40	1.12