Tenets of Wilson: 2019

2019-12-30

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 17, Final

Baltimore over San Francisco

The regular season is over and the playoffs are set. We had the biggest upset possible, with the best team losing to the worst, so Miami causes New England to play themselves out of a first round bye. Instead, Baltimore and Kansas City get the byes, and Baltimore becomes the new AFC favorite. In the NFC, San Francisco won their matchup against Seattle for the divison, and thus takes the #1 seed and a first round bye, along with Green Bay.

You can tell from the chart who I think will win, but who am I rooting for on Saturday?

Buffalo (65%) at Houston
Buffalo seems fun, let's root for them. I really don't feel a strong pull towards either team in this one. I do appreciate that in the AFC the seeds worked out "correctly", as Buffalo would be behind Houston head to head due to conference record. That's frequently not the case in these matchups of the best wildcard at the worst division winner since 2002.

Tennessee at New England (78%)
Tough call here, as during the Rams' time in St. Louis, these are the two teams they faced in Super Bowls. Since they beat Tennessee, I'm not nearly as bitter about that team I guess. Plus everyone's tired of New England winning all the time. So let's root for another road team.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	14-2	0.869	++	++	++	81.22	48.43	34.64
NE	12-4	0.866	++	++	78.35	52.81	29.05	20.63
SF	13-3	0.786	++	++	++	68.04	45.50	18.64
KC	12-4	0.758	++	++	++	40.32	15.51	8.49
GB	13-3	0.634	++	++	++	50.64	18.74	4.73
NO	13-3	0.707	++	++	49.99	29.13	13.49	4.28
MIN	10-6	0.708	-	++	50.01	19.83	12.27	3.89
BUF	10-6	0.640	-	++	65.28	15.92	4.24	1.75
PHI	9-7	0.562	++	++	54.95	18.82	6.15	1.25
TEN	9-7	0.641	-	++	21.65	4.59	1.93	0.80
SEA	11-5	0.513	-	++	45.05	13.54	3.85	0.67
HOU	10-6	0.486	++	++	34.72	5.14	0.85	0.23
DAL	8-8	0.712	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAR	9-7	0.559	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	7-9	0.515	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	5-11	0.482	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	7-9	0.476	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-9	0.466	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	8-8	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	8-8	0.454	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	7-9	0.416	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	6-10	0.383	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	5-10-1	0.353	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	3-12-1	0.344	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	7-9	0.313	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	4-12	0.302	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	6-10	0.302	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	7-9	0.295	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-11	0.275	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	2-14	0.227	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	5-11	0.193	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-13	0.187	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Final] New England over San Francisco

2019-12-29

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 18

We've had 2 semifinals, and the winners of each are at the top of the rankings. As a result, my end of year #1 should match the national champion. LSU had no issue winning their game, outscoring Oklahoma 21-7 in the first quarter, and 28-7 in the second. Clemson trailed Ohio State for a lot of the back-and-forth game, including from 11:46 to go until 1:49 to go, when they scored the final touchdown and 2 point conversion to go up by 6.

1	Clemson	14-0
2	LSU	14-0
3	Ohio State	13-1
4	Appalachian State	13-1
5	Memphis	12-2
6	Oklahoma	12-2
7	Boise State	12-2
8	Oregon	11-2
9	Penn State	11-2
10	Notre Dame	11-2
11	Georgia	11-2
12	Utah	11-2
13	Baylor	11-2
14	Air Force	11-2
15	Florida Atlantic	11-3
16	Florida	10-2
17	Wisconsin	10-3
18	Cincinnati	10-3
19	Iowa	10-3
20	Navy	10-2
21	UCF	10-3
22	Minnesota	10-2
23	SMU	10-3
24	Hawai'i	10-5
25	Alabama	10-2
26	San Diego State	10-3
27	Auburn	9-3
28	Louisiana	10-3
29	Michigan	9-3
30	Virginia	9-4
31	Louisiana Tech	10-3
32	Washington	8-5
33	USC	8-5
34	Kansas State	8-4
35	Pittsburgh	8-5
36	Oklahoma State	8-5
37	Wake Forest	8-5
38	Marshall	8-5
39	Virginia Tech	8-4
40	Miami (OH)	8-5
41	Texas A&M	8-5
42	Western Kentucky	8-4
43	Buffalo	8-5
44	Arkansas State	8-5
45	UAB	9-5
46	Louisville	7-5
47	Temple	8-5
48	Iowa State	7-6
49	Central Michigan	8-6
50	Tennessee	7-5
51	Arizona State	7-5
52	Texas	7-5
53	BYU	7-6
54	Indiana	8-4
55	Utah State	7-6
56	North Carolina	7-6
57	California	7-5
58	Western Michigan	7-5
59	Kentucky	7-5
60	Michigan State	7-6
61	Kent State	7-6
62	Georgia Southern	7-6
63	Southern Mississippi	7-5
64	Liberty	8-5
65	Georgia State	7-5
66	Wyoming	7-5
67	Nevada	7-5
68	Florida State	6-6
69	Mississippi State	6-6
70	Miami	6-7
71	Charlotte	7-6
72	Boston College	6-6
73	Tulane	6-6
74	Missouri	6-6
75	Eastern Michigan	6-7
76	Toledo	6-6
77	Ohio	6-6
78	Washington State	6-7
79	Duke	5-7
80	Illinois	6-6
81	West Virginia	5-7
82	Florida International	6-7
83	TCU	5-7
84	Oregon State	5-7
85	UL Monroe	5-7
86	Syracuse	5-7
87	Colorado	5-7
88	Ball State	5-7
89	Northern Illinois	5-7
90	South Carolina	4-8
91	Nebraska	5-7
92	Troy	5-7
93	Coastal Carolina	5-7
94	Tulsa	4-8
95	San Jose State	5-7
96	South Florida	4-8
97	UCLA	4-8
98	Army	5-8
99	Houston	4-8
100	Fresno State	4-8
101	Stanford	4-8
102	Arizona	4-8
103	Ole Miss	4-8
104	Texas Tech	4-8
105	Purdue	4-8
106	NC State	4-8
107	Middle Tennessee	4-8
108	UNLV	4-8
109	Colorado State	4-8
110	East Carolina	4-8
111	Georgia Tech	3-9
112	UTSA	4-8
113	North Texas	4-8
114	Texas State	3-9
115	Kansas	3-9
116	Bowling Green	3-9
117	Maryland	3-9
118	Northwestern	3-9
119	Vanderbilt	3-9
120	Rice	3-9
121	Rutgers	2-10
122	New Mexico	2-10
123	Arkansas	2-10
124	South Alabama	2-10
125	New Mexico State	2-10
126	UConn	2-10
127	Old Dominion	1-11
128	UTEP	1-11
129	UMass	1-11
130	Akron	0-12

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn
Week 5 Auburn
Week 6 Ohio State
Week 7 Ohio State
Week 8 Ohio State
Week 9 Ohio State
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Ohio State
Week 15 Ohio State
Week 16 Ohio State
Week 17 Ohio State

2019-12-24

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 16, Final

New England over San Francisco

There's only one gameday left in the regular season, with all of the week 17 games placed on Sunday either for some perceived sense of fairness, or just to maximize the potential for fast-paced playoff changes.

No one was eliminated Monday, but Green Bay locked up the NFC North (and locked Minnesota into the second wildcard I believe). That leaves just 2 divisions unclaimed, the stubborn NFC East that no one wants to win and may send an 8-8 team to the playoffs, and the West, whose winner will have at least 12 wins and possibly be the #1 seed. Since San Francisco is playing Seattle for that spot in week 17, they get the prime time game. All the first round byes except for Baltimore's are still up for grabs. In the AFC the other will be either New England or Kansas City, and in the NFC it will be some combination of Seattle, San Francisco, New Orleans, and Green Bay.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	12-3	0.864	++	++	99.5	72.8	43.9	31.8
BAL	13-2	0.840	++	++	++	77.4	39.8	27.2
SF	12-3	0.775	75.9	++	93.3	61.1	40.9	16.8
MIN	10-5	0.708	-	++	59.1	27.2	15.7	5.2
KC	11-4	0.741	++	++	68.7	21.7	9.0	4.9
GB	12-3	0.627	++	++	88.6	44.4	17.3	4.5
NO	12-3	0.654	++	++	64.9	33.8	14.6	4.1
BUF	10-5	0.652	-	++	60.1	15.2	4.4	2.0
DAL	7-8	0.660	26.6	26.6	15.2	7.1	3.2	0.9
SEA	11-4	0.522	24.1	++	46.3	15.3	4.8	0.9
PHI	8-7	0.529	73.4	73.4	32.6	11.0	3.5	0.7
TEN	8-7	0.601	-	66.6	23.2	5.2	1.3	0.5
HOU	10-5	0.527	++	++	39.3	6.5	1.3	0.4
PIT	8-7	0.510	-	23.6	7.5	1.2	0.2	0.1
OAK	7-8	0.302	-	9.8	1.7	0.1	0.0	0.0
LAR	8-7	0.546	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	7-8	0.525	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	7-8	0.512	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	5-10	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	6-9	0.454	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	7-8	0.448	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	6-9	0.414	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	6-9	0.401	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	5-9-1	0.365	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	3-11-1	0.351	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	4-11	0.331	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	6-9	0.306	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	5-10	0.267	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-12	0.230	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	1-14	0.212	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	4-11	0.194	-	-	-	-	-	-

2019-12-23

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 16, Sunday

New England over San Francisco

Baltimore is the first team to clinch a bye, and also locked up the #1 seed. It seems like there's a weird power imbalance this year, though it probably happens to some degree every year. The current #1 team in the NFC still haven't clinched their division. The Baltimore win came at the expense of Cleveland, who were also finally eliminated. We're down to 2 unclinched playoff spots, Dallas vs Philadelphia for the NFC East, and the second wildcard in the AFC, which will go to Tennessee, Pittsburgh, or Oakland. All AFC divisions have been clinched, but the seeding could still change for 3 of the 4 winners. I specifically track the chances of getting the #1 seed; I suppose I should do so for at least 2-6 as well.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	12-3	0.864	++	++	99.5	72.8	43.9	31.6
BAL	13-2	0.840	++	++	++	77.4	39.8	27.1
SF	12-3	0.775	75.9	++	93.0	61.8	40.8	16.7
MIN	10-4	0.724	12.9	++	64.8	33.7	19.1	6.7
NO	12-3	0.654	++	++	81.5	41.9	17.9	5.0
KC	11-4	0.741	++	++	68.7	21.7	9.0	4.9
GB	11-3	0.599	87.1	++	65.0	29.6	10.7	2.6
BUF	10-5	0.652	-	++	60.1	15.2	4.4	2.0
SEA	11-4	0.522	24.1	++	53.1	16.6	5.3	1.0
DAL	7-8	0.660	26.6	26.6	13.8	6.5	3.0	0.8
PHI	8-7	0.529	73.4	73.4	28.8	9.9	3.2	0.6
TEN	8-7	0.601	-	66.6	23.2	5.2	1.3	0.5
HOU	10-5	0.527	++	++	39.3	6.5	1.3	0.4
PIT	8-7	0.510	-	23.6	7.5	1.2	0.2	0.1
OAK	7-8	0.302	-	9.8	1.7	0.1	0.0	0.0
LAR	8-7	0.546	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	7-8	0.525	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	7-8	0.512	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	5-10	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	6-9	0.454	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	7-8	0.448	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	6-9	0.420	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	6-9	0.414	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	3-11-1	0.351	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	5-9-1	0.346	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	4-11	0.331	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	6-9	0.306	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	5-10	0.267	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-12	0.230	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	1-14	0.212	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	4-11	0.194	-	-	-	-	-	-

2019-12-22

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 17

Just for fun, I like to continue the weekly rankings through bowl season. There were only 8 FBS Bowl games on Friday and Saturday, along with the FCS Semifinals and Celebration Bowl, and the Division 2 and Division 3 championship, so a total of 13 games. Usually the early bowls feature a lot of 6-6 and 7-5 teams, so nothing big changes at the top, but I've actually got Oklahoma down at #6 now, having been passed by Appalachian State and Memphis. Appalachian State won their bowl game against UAB, but Memphis hasn't played yet, so that one's a little more mysterious. As far as I can tell, the key for them was Arkansas State winning against Florida International. That raised the two team's common opponents up just enough to give Memphis the edge. Specifically, leaving out that game lowers UL Monroe by 2 spots, and Southern Alabama by 1. Memphis and Oklahoma were already extremely close in my rankings, and that small change put Memphis ahead.

1	Ohio State	13-0
2	LSU	13-0
3	Clemson	13-0
4	Appalachian State	13-1
5	Memphis	12-1
6	Oklahoma	12-1
7	Boise State	12-2
8	Oregon	11-2
9	Georgia	11-2
10	Utah	11-2
11	Baylor	11-2
12	Florida Atlantic	11-3
13	Florida	10-2
14	Notre Dame	10-2
15	Penn State	10-2
16	Wisconsin	10-3
17	Cincinnati	10-3
18	Navy	10-2
19	SMU	10-3
20	Air Force	10-2
21	Minnesota	10-2
22	Alabama	10-2
23	San Diego State	10-3
24	Auburn	9-3
25	Louisiana	10-3
26	Michigan	9-3
27	Iowa	9-3
28	Virginia	9-4
29	UCF	9-3
30	Hawai'i	9-5
31	Washington	8-5
32	USC	8-4
33	Kansas State	8-4
34	Oklahoma State	8-4
35	Wake Forest	8-4
36	Louisiana Tech	9-3
37	Marshall	8-4
38	Miami (OH)	8-5
39	Western Kentucky	8-4
40	Buffalo	8-5
41	Virginia Tech	8-4
42	Temple	8-4
43	Arkansas State	8-5
44	UAB	9-5
45	Louisville	7-5
46	Iowa State	7-5
47	Central Michigan	8-6
48	Tennessee	7-5
49	Texas	7-5
50	Arizona State	7-5
51	BYU	7-5
52	Pittsburgh	7-5
53	Utah State	7-6
54	Indiana	8-4
55	California	7-5
56	Kentucky	7-5
57	Western Michigan	7-5
58	Kent State	7-6
59	Georgia Southern	7-6
60	Texas A&M	7-5
61	Liberty	8-5
62	Southern Mississippi	7-5
63	Georgia State	7-5
64	Wyoming	7-5
65	Nevada	7-5
66	Florida State	6-6
67	Mississippi State	6-6
68	Miami	6-6
69	North Carolina	6-6
70	Charlotte	7-6
71	Michigan State	6-6
72	Boston College	6-6
73	Tulane	6-6
74	Missouri	6-6
75	Eastern Michigan	6-6
76	Toledo	6-6
77	Ohio	6-6
78	Washington State	6-6
79	Duke	5-7
80	West Virginia	5-7
81	Illinois	6-6
82	Florida International	6-7
83	TCU	5-7
84	Oregon State	5-7
85	UL Monroe	5-7
86	Colorado	5-7
87	Syracuse	5-7
88	Ball State	5-7
89	Northern Illinois	5-7
90	Nebraska	5-7
91	South Carolina	4-8
92	Troy	5-7
93	Coastal Carolina	5-7
94	Tulsa	4-8
95	South Florida	4-8
96	UCLA	4-8
97	San Jose State	5-7
98	Army	5-8
99	Houston	4-8
100	Fresno State	4-8
101	Stanford	4-8
102	Arizona	4-8
103	Texas Tech	4-8
104	Ole Miss	4-8
105	Purdue	4-8
106	NC State	4-8
107	Middle Tennessee	4-8
108	UNLV	4-8
109	Colorado State	4-8
110	East Carolina	4-8
111	North Texas	4-8
112	UTSA	4-8
113	Georgia Tech	3-9
114	Texas State	3-9
115	Kansas	3-9
116	Bowling Green	3-9
117	Maryland	3-9
118	Vanderbilt	3-9
119	Northwestern	3-9
120	Rice	3-9
121	Rutgers	2-10
122	New Mexico	2-10
123	South Alabama	2-10
124	Arkansas	2-10
125	New Mexico State	2-10
126	UConn	2-10
127	Old Dominion	1-11
128	UTEP	1-11
129	UMass	1-11
130	Akron	0-12

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 16, Saturday

New England over San Francisco

It seems like everyone complains about Thursday football, including me sometimes, yet I get used to it and miss it late in the season. To placate us a little, we got 3 Saturday games this week - Houston defeated Tampa, New England beat Buffalo, and San Francisco beat the LA Rams with a field goal as the clock ran out. That eliminates LA from the NFC playoffs, and puts Minnesota in. With 5 teams in, the the only spot left to determine is the winner of the NFC East, between Dallas and Philadelphia. Seeding is also up for grabs, as no one has clinched a first round bye in either conference yet, and the NFC West and North can still be won by either of two teams, with the other becoming a wildcard.

In the AFC, New England clinched the East, eliminating Buffalo, while Houston clinched the South, eliminating Tennessee. Buffalo is a wildcard though, and Tennessee is currently the most likely to become the other, with Pittsburgh giving them some competition, and Cleveland and Oakland barely hanging on.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	12-3	0.864	++	++	99.7	76.8	49.5	35.7
BAL	12-2	0.815	++	++	99.7	73.3	34.8	22.5
SF	12-3	0.775	74.0	++	91.5	58.9	39.0	16.7
MIN	10-4	0.724	12.9	++	63.0	32.3	18.4	6.7
NO	11-3	0.640	++	++	75.0	37.6	15.3	4.3
KC	10-4	0.699	++	++	60.8	17.1	6.7	3.3
DAL	7-7	0.669	74.9	74.9	41.3	20.3	9.3	2.9
GB	11-3	0.599	87.1	++	63.5	28.7	10.5	2.6
BUF	10-5	0.652	-	++	57.8	15.6	4.9	2.2
SEA	11-3	0.547	26.0	++	55.7	18.8	6.5	1.4
TEN	8-6	0.624	-	58.5	25.7	7.0	1.9	0.8
HOU	10-5	0.527	++	++	40.0	6.9	1.5	0.5
PIT	8-6	0.525	-	41.2	16.2	3.2	0.6	0.2
PHI	7-7	0.512	25.1	25.1	9.9	3.4	1.0	0.2
CLE	6-8	0.453	-	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
OAK	6-8	0.293	-	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
LAR	8-7	0.546	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	7-8	0.525	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	5-9	0.520	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	7-7	0.508	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	6-8	0.446	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	5-9	0.433	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-9	0.390	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-9	0.382	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	3-10-1	0.370	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	4-9-1	0.325	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-11	0.316	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-9	0.301	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	5-9	0.292	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-11	0.231	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	1-13	0.211	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	3-11	0.190	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Final] New England over San Francisco

2019-12-17

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 15, Final

New England over San Francisco

New Orleans beat Indianapolis, eliminating them from the playoffs. We now have 15 teams - almost half - that are out, and still just 8 in. That leaves 9 teams fighting for 4 spots.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	11-3	0.847	99.1	++	97.1	71.1	43.5	30.3
BAL	12-2	0.815	++	++	99.8	72.9	37.4	24.3
SF	11-3	0.771	71.7	++	89.9	58.0	38.1	17.0
MIN	10-4	0.724	12.9	98.0	61.5	32.6	18.4	7.2
NO	11-3	0.640	++	++	76.5	37.6	15.6	4.8
KC	10-4	0.699	++	++	67.0	21.2	8.5	4.2
DAL	7-7	0.669	74.9	74.9	41.1	20.3	9.4	3.1
BUF	10-4	0.668	0.9	++	60.6	18.4	6.3	2.9
GB	11-3	0.599	87.1	++	63.5	28.3	10.6	2.9
SEA	11-3	0.547	28.3	++	57.0	19.4	6.7	1.6
TEN	8-6	0.624	14.8	61.0	25.8	7.0	2.1	0.9
HOU	9-5	0.521	85.2	97.9	35.5	6.7	1.5	0.5
PHI	7-7	0.512	25.1	25.1	9.7	3.3	1.0	0.2
PIT	8-6	0.525	-	40.8	14.1	2.8	0.6	0.2
LAR	8-6	0.553	-	2.0	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0
CLE	6-8	0.453	-	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
OAK	6-8	0.294	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
TB	7-7	0.529	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	5-9	0.520	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	7-7	0.508	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	6-8	0.446	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	5-9	0.433	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-9	0.390	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-9	0.382	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	3-10-1	0.370	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	4-9-1	0.325	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-11	0.316	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-9	0.301	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	5-9	0.292	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-11	0.231	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	1-13	0.211	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	3-11	0.190	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco

2019-12-16

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 15, Sunday

New England over San Francisco

There were only 3 spots clinched before Sunday, and all were division winners. New England, San Francisco, Green Bay, Buffalo, and Seattle all clinched at least wildcard berths. Seattle is actually leading the NFC West, although they still have to face San Francisco and are not favored by my numbers to win it. New England also regained their AFC lead, at least for now.

We had 12 teams completely out, and now there are 14. Denver and Chicago both joined the group with a divisional loss. The LA Rams joined Indianapolis, Cleveland, and Oakland on the brink of elimination, all 4 of whom are under 5.5% likely to make the playoffs. Indianapolis still will play on Monday.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	11-3	0.847	99.1	++	97.2	71.1	43.5	30.4
BAL	12-2	0.815	++	++	99.8	73.0	37.5	24.4
SF	11-3	0.771	70.5	++	90.0	58.3	39.0	17.4
MIN	10-4	0.724	12.9	98.0	64.3	34.7	19.9	7.7
KC	10-4	0.699	++	++	67.5	21.3	8.5	4.3
GB	11-3	0.599	87.1	++	71.2	33.2	12.3	3.3
DAL	7-7	0.669	74.9	74.9	40.9	20.9	9.8	3.2
BUF	10-4	0.668	0.9	++	60.5	18.4	6.3	2.9
NO	10-3	0.590	++	++	65.0	29.0	10.6	2.8
SEA	11-3	0.547	29.5	++	58.1	20.0	7.1	1.7
TEN	8-6	0.624	16.4	55.1	23.5	6.3	1.9	0.8
HOU	9-5	0.521	81.0	94.7	34.4	6.5	1.5	0.5
PHI	7-7	0.512	25.1	25.1	9.6	3.5	1.1	0.2
PIT	8-6	0.525	-	44.3	15.2	3.0	0.7	0.2
LAR	8-6	0.553	-	2.0	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0
IND	6-7	0.502	2.6	5.4	1.8	0.3	0.1	0.0
CLE	6-8	0.453	-	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
OAK	6-8	0.294	-	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
TB	7-7	0.529	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	5-9	0.520	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	7-7	0.508	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	5-9	0.433	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-9	0.390	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-9	0.382	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	3-10-1	0.370	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	4-9-1	0.325	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-11	0.316	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-9	0.301	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	5-9	0.292	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-11	0.231	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	1-13	0.211	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	3-11	0.190	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco

2019-12-15

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 16

This week, there was only one FBS game, in which Navy defeated Army. We also had 4 quarterfinals in the FCS, and 4 semifinals in Division 2 and 3. My top 13 teams didn't change, so no one of real consequence (that is, the top 4) moved around. I've been saying it for years, but I really want Army or Navy to contend for the playoff one year and see how the committee handles that. Navy was #23 this year, so it's not impossible one of them could get up to at least #4.

Anyway, with the win, Navy jumped from #25 to #17, but also Penn State passed Wisconsin at #14, Minnesota fell behind SMU and Air Force to #20, Arizona State passed Utah State to reach #48, and California and Western Michigan jumped over Georgia Southern, which fell to #56. Even in the triple digits a few teams swapped. East Carolina gained #109 over Colorado State, and Georgia Tech passed UTSA at #112. Most of those were direct Army or Navy opponents, but a few of them I can't quite find the path that likely caused the change.

1	Ohio State	13-0
2	LSU	13-0
3	Clemson	13-0
4	Oklahoma	12-1
5	Memphis	12-1
6	Boise State	12-1
7	Appalachian State	12-1
8	Oregon	11-2
9	Georgia	11-2
10	Utah	11-2
11	Baylor	11-2
12	Florida	10-2
13	Notre Dame	10-2
14	Penn State	10-2
15	Wisconsin	10-3
16	Cincinnati	10-3
17	Navy	10-2
18	SMU	10-2
19	Air Force	10-2
20	Minnesota	10-2
21	Alabama	10-2
22	Florida Atlantic	10-3
23	Auburn	9-3
24	Louisiana	10-3
25	Michigan	9-3
26	Iowa	9-3
27	Virginia	9-4
28	UCF	9-3
29	Hawai'i	9-5
30	San Diego State	9-3
31	USC	8-4
32	Kansas State	8-4
33	Oklahoma State	8-4
34	Wake Forest	8-4
35	Louisiana Tech	9-3
36	Marshall	8-4
37	Western Kentucky	8-4
38	Virginia Tech	8-4
39	Miami (OH)	8-5
40	Temple	8-4
41	UAB	9-4
42	Louisville	7-5
43	Iowa State	7-5
44	Tennessee	7-5
45	Central Michigan	8-5
46	Texas	7-5
47	Washington	7-5
48	Arizona State	7-5
49	Utah State	7-5
50	Pittsburgh	7-5
51	BYU	7-5
52	Indiana	8-4
53	Kentucky	7-5
54	California	7-5
55	Western Michigan	7-5
56	Georgia Southern	7-5
57	Texas A&M	7-5
58	Buffalo	7-5
59	Southern Mississippi	7-5
60	Arkansas State	7-5
61	Georgia State	7-5
62	Wyoming	7-5
63	Nevada	7-5
64	Florida State	6-6
65	Mississippi State	6-6
66	Miami	6-6
67	Charlotte	7-5
68	North Carolina	6-6
69	Michigan State	6-6
70	Boston College	6-6
71	Kent State	6-6
72	Tulane	6-6
73	Liberty	7-5
74	Missouri	6-6
75	Eastern Michigan	6-6
76	Toledo	6-6
77	Ohio	6-6
78	Washington State	6-6
79	Florida International	6-6
80	Duke	5-7
81	West Virginia	5-7
82	Illinois	6-6
83	TCU	5-7
84	Oregon State	5-7
85	UL Monroe	5-7
86	Syracuse	5-7
87	Colorado	5-7
88	Ball State	5-7
89	Northern Illinois	5-7
90	Nebraska	5-7
91	South Carolina	4-8
92	Troy	5-7
93	Coastal Carolina	5-7
94	Tulsa	4-8
95	South Florida	4-8
96	San Jose State	5-7
97	UCLA	4-8
98	Army	5-8
99	Houston	4-8
100	Fresno State	4-8
101	Texas Tech	4-8
102	Stanford	4-8
103	Ole Miss	4-8
104	Arizona	4-8
105	Purdue	4-8
106	NC State	4-8
107	Middle Tennessee	4-8
108	UNLV	4-8
109	East Carolina	4-8
110	Colorado State	4-8
111	North Texas	4-8
112	Georgia Tech	3-9
113	UTSA	4-8
114	Kansas	3-9
115	Texas State	3-9
116	Bowling Green	3-9
117	Maryland	3-9
118	Vanderbilt	3-9
119	Northwestern	3-9
120	Rice	3-9
121	Rutgers	2-10
122	New Mexico	2-10
123	Arkansas	2-10
124	South Alabama	2-10
125	UConn	2-10
126	New Mexico State	2-10
127	Old Dominion	1-11
128	UTEP	1-11
129	UMass	1-11
130	Akron	0-12