Tenets of Wilson: 2018-12

2018-12-31

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 17, Final

New Orleans over Kansas City

With the regular season over, the playoff field is set. Interestingly, the top 3 favorites to win are all in the NFC, thanks to some very high strengths. In the AFC, Kansas City is just barely ahead of New England in terms of chances to make it to the Superbowl, so consider that almost a tossup, although for historical reasons I don't have any home field advantage taken into account.

I like to look for any weird imbalances when we get to the playoffs, and there really aren't many this year. All teams 11 teams with 10 wins or more made the playoffs. The only nonplayoff team with a better record than a playoff team this year is Pittsburgh, at 9-6-1, half a game better than 9-7 Philadelphia. Of course with 6 teams per conference, that doesn't do Pittsburgh any good.

Now for the annual tradition of my (rooting) picks.

Indianapolis at Houston: I always used to root for Peyton Manning and Marshall Faulk, but I was surprised to find myself not all that attached to Indianapolis as they moved on. They're even one of the teams that took out a goofy ad to tell St. Louis they should adopt them as their home team when the Rams left. But, I'm even less attached to Houston, so I'll root for Indianapolis in this one.

Seattle at Dallas: Just for old time's sake, let's root for the Cowboys in this one. I know it's popular to hate the Cowboys, just like the Yankees, but sometimes you just want to see a marquee team in there.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NO	13-3	0.745	++	++	++	66.67	34.48	19.21
CHI	12-4	0.768	++	++	73.82	41.37	23.97	14.08
LAR	13-3	0.722	++	++	++	48.75	25.58	13.50
KC	12-4	0.708	++	++	++	52.73	26.93	12.87
NE	11-5	0.708	++	++	++	52.36	26.80	12.80
BAL	10-6	0.714	++	++	53.09	26.95	14.22	6.90
LAC	12-4	0.688	-	++	46.91	22.36	11.11	5.05
HOU	11-5	0.674	++	++	50.80	23.37	10.82	4.75
SEA	10-6	0.653	-	++	62.15	24.80	10.08	4.51
IND	10-6	0.667	-	++	49.20	22.23	10.12	4.36
DAL	10-6	0.534	++	++	37.85	10.90	3.23	1.07
PHI	9-7	0.540	-	++	26.18	7.50	2.65	0.89
PIT	9-6-1	0.627	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	8-7-1	0.541	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	9-7	0.517	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	7-9	0.488	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-9	0.484	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	6-10	0.456	-	-	-	-	-	-
GB	6-9-1	0.454	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	7-8-1	0.434	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	6-10	0.421	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-11	0.418	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	5-11	0.383	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	6-10	0.345	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-12	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	7-9	0.323	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	5-11	0.317	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-12	0.300	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	7-9	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	6-10	0.270	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	4-12	0.192	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	3-13	0.128	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-12-30

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 18

This week had 13 bowls, although #14 was canceled for lightning. A bunch of teams shuffled around a little, but most importantly, we had the CFP semifinals. In my rankings, we had 1 vs 3 and 2 vs 4, so #1 Clemson got a bigger strength boost than #2 Alabama, so remained on top. I believe they are close enough that the winner will be my #1 at the end of the year, but we'll see how the other 11 bowls plus the FCS title game affect things.

1	Clemson	14-0
2	Alabama	14-0
3	Notre Dame	12-1
4	Oklahoma	12-2
5	Ohio State	12-1
6	Georgia	11-2
7	UCF	12-0
8	Fresno State	12-2
9	Washington State	11-2
10	Army	11-2
11	Appalachian State	11-2
12	Florida	10-3
13	Washington	10-3
14	Michigan	10-3
15	UAB	11-3
16	Utah State	11-2
17	Boise State	10-3
18	Syracuse	10-3
19	Troy	10-3
20	Cincinnati	10-2
21	Utah	9-4
22	Georgia Southern	10-3
23	LSU	9-3
24	Kentucky	9-3
25	Penn State	9-3
26	NC State	9-3
27	Texas	9-4
28	Buffalo	10-4
29	Texas A&M	8-4
30	Stanford	8-4
31	Marshall	9-4
32	Duke	8-5
33	Ohio	9-4
34	Iowa	8-4
35	Mississippi State	8-4
36	Missouri	8-4
37	West Virginia	8-4
38	Iowa State	8-5
39	Auburn	8-5
40	Northwestern	8-5
41	North Texas	9-4
42	Virginia	8-5
43	Northern Illinois	8-6
44	Florida Intl	9-4
45	Wisconsin	8-5
46	Oregon	8-4
47	Pittsburgh	7-6
48	Middle Tennessee	8-6
49	Temple	8-5
50	Arkansas State	8-5
51	Hawai'i	8-6
52	South Carolina	7-6
53	Wake Forest	7-6
54	Nevada	8-5
55	BYU	7-6
56	TCU	7-6
57	Boston College	7-5
58	Louisiana Tech	8-5
59	Miami	7-6
60	Georgia Tech	7-6
61	Baylor	7-6
62	Minnesota	7-6
63	Michigan State	7-5
64	Tulane	7-6
65	Houston	8-5
66	Memphis	8-6
67	Arizona State	7-6
68	California	7-6
69	San Diego State	7-6
70	Eastern Michigan	7-6
71	South Florida	7-6
72	Louisiana	7-7
73	Purdue	6-7
74	Western Michigan	7-6
75	Vanderbilt	6-7
76	Toledo	7-6
77	Virginia Tech	6-6
78	Oklahoma State	6-6
79	Miami (OH)	6-6
80	Wyoming	6-6
81	Florida State	5-7
82	Southern Mississippi	6-5
83	Tennessee	5-7
84	UL Monroe	6-6
85	Indiana	5-7
86	Texas Tech	5-7
87	Florida Atlantic	5-7
88	Coastal Carolina	5-7
89	Maryland	5-7
90	Kansas State	5-7
91	USC	5-7
92	Ole Miss	5-7
93	Air Force	5-7
94	SMU	5-7
95	Arizona	5-7
96	Charlotte	5-7
97	Colorado	5-7
98	Nebraska	4-8
99	UMass	4-8
100	UCLA	3-9
101	Illinois	4-8
102	Akron	4-8
103	UNLV	4-8
104	Ball State	4-8
105	Old Dominion	4-8
106	South Alabama	3-9
107	Navy	3-10
108	East Carolina	3-9
109	Kansas	3-9
110	New Mexico	3-9
111	Louisville	2-10
112	UTSA	3-9
113	New Mexico State	3-9
114	Colorado State	3-9
115	Tulsa	3-9
116	Western Kentucky	3-9
117	Bowling Green	3-9
118	Georgia State	2-10
119	North Carolina	2-9
120	Oregon State	2-10
121	Texas State	3-9
122	Arkansas	2-10
123	Rice	2-11
124	San Jose State	1-11
125	Kent State	2-10
126	UConn	1-11
127	Rutgers	1-11
128	Central Michigan	1-11
129	UTEP	1-11

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame
Week 7 Notre Dame
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Clemson
Week 15 Clemson
Week 16 Clemson
Week 17 Clemson

2018-12-27

March Card Show Autograph

I'm still catching up on posting all my autographed balls, so here's one I got last March. My last post was from last December's show, and I didn't attend the shows in January or February, although I can't recall exactly why now. Either the signers were ones I already had, or I had other plans. Anyway, in March, I got to meet Tom Niedenfuer.

Tom Niedenfuer

Niedenfuer spent most of his career with the Dodgers, but he spent his final season in St. Louis in 1990, making 52 relief appearances. My only requirement to be a part of my collection is to have ever played for the Cardinals, so a full season definitely qualifies.

2018-12-25

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 16, Final

New Orleans over Kansas City

As was known before, absolutely nothing of substance changed with the Denver-Oakland game, so the projections are all the same. The chances of Kansas City to win the division did come down slightly, because they face a now-stronger Oakland team in Week 17, while their rival Los Angeles faces the now-weaker Denver. Still, it was less than a percentage point change.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NO	13-2	0.766	++	++	++	69.50	39.80	25.03
CHI	11-4	0.740	++	++	74.26	40.88	21.35	12.72
LAR	12-3	0.703	++	++	96.03	47.63	22.86	12.62
KC	11-4	0.661	90.51	++	94.00	48.65	24.55	10.51
NE	10-5	0.645	++	++	88.42	42.78	20.81	8.55
BAL	9-6	0.711	82.07	82.07	48.99	28.08	16.12	7.82
LAC	11-4	0.660	9.49	++	53.82	27.35	13.93	5.95
HOU	10-5	0.637	75.56	++	61.24	29.15	13.77	5.54
SEA	9-6	0.648	-	++	61.08	23.25	9.72	4.75
IND	9-6	0.638	14.26	58.33	28.25	13.46	6.37	2.58
DAL	9-6	0.533	++	++	38.56	10.70	3.31	1.24
MIN	8-6-1	0.569	-	58.25	19.26	5.58	2.17	0.89
TEN	9-6	0.557	10.19	41.67	17.12	6.73	2.64	0.86
PIT	8-6-1	0.619	17.93	17.93	8.16	3.80	1.81	0.70
PHI	8-7	0.490	-	41.75	10.82	2.46	0.78	0.26
GB	6-8-1	0.513	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	6-9	0.487	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	6-9	0.480	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	6-9	0.450	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	7-7-1	0.438	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-10	0.417	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	5-10	0.385	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	7-8	0.379	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-11	0.363	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	5-10	0.362	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	5-10	0.359	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	6-9	0.355	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-11	0.349	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	7-8	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	4-11	0.243	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	5-10	0.222	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	3-12	0.137	-	-	-	-	-	-

2018-12-24

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 16, Sunday

New Orleans over Kansas City

Carolina, Washington, and Miami were all eliminated, and we're down to 15 teams alive in the playoff race. 9 teams have clinched, and we really have 2 pairs of teams each fighting for one spot. In the AFC North, Baltimore leads Pittsburgh by a half-game, so barring further ties, one or the other will win the division outright, and the other will be eliminated. Minnesota and Philadelphia are in the same situation for a wildcard spot, with Minnesota up by the half game. Those 4 all play in the late games Sunday, while the prime time game has Indianapolis against Tennessee, the only pair lined up against each other. The winner will make the playoffs, possibly as the AFC South winner, and the loser will not make the playoffs.

But, we still have Denver vs Oakland on Monday night, which is utterly meaningless except for draft position.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NO	13-2	0.766	++	++	++	69.50	39.80	25.03
CHI	11-4	0.740	++	++	74.26	40.89	21.35	12.73
LAR	12-3	0.703	++	++	96.03	47.62	22.86	12.62
KC	11-4	0.661	91.36	++	94.41	48.87	24.66	10.55
NE	10-5	0.645	++	++	88.42	42.78	20.81	8.55
BAL	9-6	0.711	82.07	82.07	48.99	28.08	16.12	7.82
LAC	11-4	0.660	8.64	++	53.38	27.12	13.82	5.90
HOU	10-5	0.637	75.55	++	61.28	29.17	13.77	5.54
SEA	9-6	0.648	-	++	61.09	23.25	9.72	4.75
IND	9-6	0.638	14.26	58.33	28.25	13.46	6.37	2.57
DAL	9-6	0.533	++	++	38.55	10.69	3.31	1.23
MIN	8-6-1	0.569	-	58.26	19.26	5.59	2.17	0.89
TEN	9-6	0.557	10.19	41.67	17.11	6.73	2.64	0.86
PIT	8-6-1	0.619	17.93	17.93	8.16	3.79	1.81	0.69
PHI	8-7	0.490	-	41.74	10.81	2.45	0.78	0.26
DEN	6-8	0.515	-	-	-	-	-	-
GB	6-8-1	0.513	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	6-9	0.480	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	6-9	0.450	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	7-7-1	0.438	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-10	0.417	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	5-10	0.385	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	7-8	0.379	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-11	0.363	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	5-10	0.362	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	5-10	0.359	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	6-9	0.355	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-11	0.349	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	7-8	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	3-11	0.231	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	5-10	0.222	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	3-12	0.137	-	-	-	-	-	-

2018-12-23

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 17

After 9 more bowls, and no lower division games this week, the rankings shuffled around a surprising amount in the middle. Most teams only moved around a place or two, of course. Army moved up the highest of anyone, from #14 to #9, so no one else cracked into the playoff top 4. The worst teams to move were Rice and San Diego State, swapping positions at #123 and #124 due to strength of schedule changes.

We've got 26 bowls plus an FCS title game to go.

1	Clemson	13-0
2	Alabama	13-0
3	Notre Dame	12-0
4	Oklahoma	12-1
5	Ohio State	12-1
6	UCF	12-0
7	Georgia	11-2
8	Fresno State	12-2
9	Army	11-2
10	Appalachian State	11-2
11	Washington	10-3
12	UAB	11-3
13	Michigan	10-2
14	Washington State	10-2
15	Utah State	11-2
16	Boise State	10-3
17	Troy	10-3
18	Cincinnati	10-2
19	Utah	9-4
20	Georgia Southern	10-3
21	Florida	9-3
22	Kentucky	9-3
23	LSU	9-3
24	Penn State	9-3
25	NC State	9-3
26	Buffalo	10-4
27	Syracuse	9-3
28	Texas	9-4
29	Texas A&M	8-4
30	Stanford	8-4
31	Marshall	9-4
32	Ohio	9-4
33	Mississippi State	8-4
34	Missouri	8-4
35	Iowa	8-4
36	West Virginia	8-3
37	Iowa State	8-4
38	Northwestern	8-5
39	North Texas	9-4
40	Northern Illinois	8-6
41	Florida Intl	9-4
42	Temple	8-4
43	Oregon	8-4
44	Arkansas State	8-4
45	Middle Tennessee	8-6
46	South Carolina	7-5
47	Pittsburgh	7-6
48	Duke	7-5
49	Hawai'i	8-6
50	Wake Forest	7-6
51	Auburn	7-5
52	BYU	7-6
53	Louisiana Tech	8-5
54	Boston College	7-5
55	Georgia Tech	7-5
56	Miami	7-5
57	Tulane	7-6
58	Michigan State	7-5
59	Houston	8-5
60	Memphis	8-6
61	Virginia	7-5
62	Arizona State	7-6
63	California	7-5
64	Wisconsin	7-5
65	Eastern Michigan	7-6
66	South Florida	7-6
67	San Diego State	7-6
68	Louisiana	7-7
69	Vanderbilt	6-6
70	Nevada	7-5
71	Purdue	6-6
72	Western Michigan	7-6
73	TCU	6-6
74	Toledo	7-6
75	Virginia Tech	6-6
76	Baylor	6-6
77	Minnesota	6-6
78	Oklahoma State	6-6
79	Miami (OH)	6-6
80	Wyoming	6-6
81	Florida State	5-7
82	Southern Mississippi	6-5
83	UL Monroe	6-6
84	Tennessee	5-7
85	Indiana	5-7
86	Coastal Carolina	5-7
87	Florida Atlantic	5-7
88	Texas Tech	5-7
89	Maryland	5-7
90	USC	5-7
91	Kansas State	5-7
92	Ole Miss	5-7
93	Arizona	5-7
94	Air Force	5-7
95	Charlotte	5-7
96	SMU	5-7
97	Colorado	5-7
98	Nebraska	4-8
99	UMass	4-8
100	UCLA	3-9
101	Akron	4-8
102	Illinois	4-8
103	Ball State	4-8
104	UNLV	4-8
105	Old Dominion	4-8
106	South Alabama	3-9
107	Navy	3-10
108	East Carolina	3-9
109	Kansas	3-9
110	New Mexico	3-9
111	Louisville	2-10
112	UTSA	3-9
113	New Mexico State	3-9
114	Tulsa	3-9
115	Colorado State	3-9
116	Bowling Green	3-9
117	Western Kentucky	3-9
118	Georgia State	2-10
119	North Carolina	2-9
120	Oregon State	2-10
121	Texas State	3-9
122	Arkansas	2-10
123	Rice	2-11
124	San Jose State	1-11
125	Kent State	2-10
126	UConn	1-11
127	Rutgers	1-11
128	Central Michigan	1-11
129	UTEP	1-11

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 16, Saturday

New Orleans over Kansas City

Can we just agree Saturday games are weird? It just doesn't feel like the right day for the NFL when you also watch college football. At least all 4 teams were fighting for playoff position. The LA Chargers lost to Baltimore, who now have an 80% chance at either the second wildcard or winning the AFC North. That loss helps Kansas City too, moving them from 77% to 92% likely to have homefield throughout the playoffs, and from 79% to 96% for the AFC West. They can clinch both with a win Sunday and a Houston loss or tie, or a few other combinations of game results that clinch a lower tiebreaker for them.

In the other game, Tennessee beat Washington, but both teams are still alive, though Washington can't win the NFC East now, due to their bad divisional record (2-3 currently). Tennessee is still holding on to a very tiny chance of winning the AFC South, and about a 34% chance of playoffs overall. Either of Saturday's results on its own would have eliminated Cleveland, who needed a bunch of teams to pile up at 8 wins to have a chance.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NO	12-2	0.759	++	++	99.23	68.91	41.07	25.50
CHI	10-4	0.723	++	++	75.99	43.06	22.19	12.75
KC	11-3	0.670	96.13	++	97.72	51.26	26.83	12.23
LAR	11-3	0.667	++	++	94.04	45.54	20.34	10.38
HOU	10-4	0.643	93.60	99.49	83.95	41.29	19.75	8.43
BAL	9-6	0.711	61.31	80.39	47.53	26.97	15.51	7.80
LAC	11-4	0.660	3.87	++	52.65	26.64	13.53	6.02
NE	9-5	0.621	98.62	98.65	63.58	29.51	13.29	5.37
SEA	8-6	0.639	-	98.43	58.42	22.68	9.89	4.73
PIT	8-5-1	0.625	38.69	46.18	21.46	10.13	4.74	1.94
IND	8-6	0.637	3.18	38.75	18.74	8.75	4.20	1.77
DAL	8-6	0.517	96.80	97.52	38.43	10.89	3.40	1.22
MIN	7-6-1	0.531	-	65.19	23.20	6.49	2.32	0.86
TEN	9-6	0.557	3.22	34.18	13.84	5.34	2.13	0.73
PHI	7-7	0.485	3.20	29.72	8.69	2.07	0.67	0.22
WAS	7-8	0.379	-	7.43	1.53	0.26	0.06	0.02
CAR	6-8	0.479	-	1.71	0.45	0.11	0.04	0.01
MIA	7-7	0.350	1.38	2.35	0.54	0.12	0.03	0.00
DEN	6-8	0.515	-	-	-	-	-	-
GB	5-8-1	0.502	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	5-9	0.455	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	6-7-1	0.422	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-9	0.418	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	5-9	0.398	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	5-9	0.397	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	6-8	0.370	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-10	0.368	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-10	0.363	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	4-10	0.342	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	5-9	0.247	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	3-11	0.231	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	3-11	0.171	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-12-18

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 15, Final

New Orleans over Kansas City

New Orleans beat Carolina to reach 12-2 and stand alone on top of the NFC standings, but doesn't quiet have its first round bye yet. I'd say we'll have most teams either in or out of the playoffs after week 16, with only a few in the middle still fighting for a spot in week 17. Saturday could be interesting, because the currently-seeded #6 and #8 teams, Baltimore and Tennessee, are both playing. #5 LA is also playing, but they'll either be the first wildcard and #5 seed, or win their division and possibly be #1.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NO	12-2	0.759	++	++	99.28	69.04	41.15	25.76
CHI	10-4	0.723	++	++	76.29	43.18	22.26	12.91
KC	11-3	0.670	78.91	++	90.18	47.69	25.26	11.51
LAR	11-3	0.667	++	++	94.33	45.69	20.39	10.52
HOU	10-4	0.643	94.97	99.83	85.10	42.74	20.56	8.78
LAC	11-3	0.676	21.09	++	63.86	33.90	18.17	8.38
NE	9-5	0.621	98.67	98.74	64.37	30.19	13.75	5.55
SEA	8-6	0.639	-	98.19	58.58	22.71	9.90	4.80
BAL	8-6	0.685	35.98	49.91	27.31	14.55	7.88	3.72
PIT	8-5-1	0.625	64.02	70.88	32.84	15.43	7.32	2.99
IND	8-6	0.637	3.17	48.76	24.50	11.41	5.53	2.33
DAL	8-6	0.517	94.32	95.79	37.75	10.67	3.34	1.21
MIN	7-6-1	0.531	-	59.24	21.19	5.94	2.12	0.80
TEN	8-6	0.535	1.86	25.60	10.38	3.78	1.44	0.47
PHI	7-7	0.485	3.26	27.38	8.03	1.92	0.62	0.21
WAS	7-7	0.398	2.42	17.86	4.13	0.75	0.19	0.05
MIA	7-7	0.350	1.33	6.28	1.47	0.31	0.07	0.01
CAR	6-8	0.479	-	1.54	0.41	0.10	0.03	0.01
CLE	6-7-1	0.422	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
DEN	6-8	0.515	-	-	-	-	-	-
GB	5-8-1	0.502	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	5-9	0.455	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-9	0.418	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	5-9	0.397	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	5-9	0.397	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	6-8	0.370	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-10	0.368	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-10	0.363	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	4-10	0.342	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	5-9	0.247	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	3-11	0.231	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	3-11	0.171	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-12-17

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 15, Sunday

New Orleans over Kansas City

Chicago clinched the NFC North, but the 4 other almost-there teams couldn't quite do it. Dallas even fell from 99% to 95% by losing in a shutout to Indianapolis, combined with Philadelphia's unlikely win over the LA Rams. Washington also won, but that was the expected outcome in that game. All teams that were below 8% are now eliminated, except for Cleveland, who needs to win out and also have Indianapolis and Tennessee tie in week 17 among other things, because otherwise one of them will have the 9 wins Cleveland can't reach.

New Orleans is close, but can't clinch a bye on Monday. I don't actually show the probability of getting a first round bye, but when the Wildcard column reaches 100%, that means the team is guaranteed to make the next round, so a bye. Thus, right now the chances are something less than 97.75% of the bye, since some of those simulations are accounted for by winning in the first weekend if they have to play then. Carolina also won't be eliminated with a loss tonight, so this game won't simplify the chart at all tomorrow, just shift the numbers.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NO	11-2	0.743	++	++	97.75	65.00	37.56	22.73
CHI	10-4	0.723	++	++	77.84	43.85	23.64	13.72
KC	11-3	0.670	78.91	++	90.19	47.69	25.27	11.82
LAR	11-3	0.667	++	++	94.46	46.82	21.59	11.14
HOU	10-4	0.643	94.98	99.82	85.10	42.75	20.57	9.02
LAC	11-3	0.676	21.09	++	63.88	33.91	18.16	8.60
NE	9-5	0.621	98.68	98.74	64.32	30.16	13.75	5.71
SEA	8-6	0.639	-	98.09	58.52	23.80	10.48	5.07
BAL	8-6	0.685	35.16	49.66	27.19	14.49	7.86	3.80
PIT	8-5-1	0.625	64.84	71.58	33.19	15.59	7.41	3.11
IND	8-6	0.637	3.16	48.48	24.34	11.33	5.49	2.37
DAL	8-6	0.517	94.31	95.59	37.69	11.18	3.56	1.29
MIN	7-6-1	0.531	-	57.96	20.75	6.21	2.22	0.84
TEN	8-6	0.535	1.86	25.43	10.31	3.75	1.43	0.48
PHI	7-7	0.485	3.26	25.39	7.47	1.92	0.62	0.21
WAS	7-7	0.398	2.43	17.68	4.08	0.81	0.20	0.05
CAR	6-7	0.485	-	5.29	1.44	0.41	0.13	0.04
MIA	7-7	0.350	1.32	6.29	1.47	0.31	0.07	0.01
CLE	6-7-1	0.422	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
DEN	6-8	0.515	-	-	-	-	-	-
GB	5-8-1	0.502	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	5-9	0.455	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-9	0.418	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	5-9	0.397	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	5-9	0.397	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	6-8	0.370	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-10	0.368	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-10	0.363	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	4-10	0.342	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	5-9	0.247	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	3-11	0.231	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	3-11	0.171	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-12-16

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 16

There were 5 FBS bowls, 1 FCS bowl and 2 semifinals, and championship game for both Division II and Division III this week. Still, there was a little movement relatively high in the rankings. The Top 4 spots didn't change, but Ohio State moved from #6 to #5 ahead of UCF. That appears to be mostly due to Tulane, an Ohio State opponent, winning their bowl.

In Division III, congrats to Mary Hardin-Baylor, and in Division II to Valdosta State. Am I making up those names? You probably have no idea!

We've got 35 bowls plus an FCS title game to go.

1	Clemson	13-0
2	Alabama	13-0
3	Notre Dame	12-0
4	Oklahoma	12-1
5	Ohio State	12-1
6	UCF	12-0
7	Georgia	11-2
8	Fresno State	12-2
9	Appalachian State	11-2
10	Washington	10-3
11	Michigan	10-2
12	Washington State	10-2
13	Utah State	11-2
14	Army	10-2
15	Boise State	10-3
16	Cincinnati	10-2
17	Utah	9-4
18	Georgia Southern	10-3
19	Florida	9-3
20	Kentucky	9-3
21	LSU	9-3
22	UAB	10-3
23	Penn State	9-3
24	Buffalo	10-3
25	NC State	9-3
26	Syracuse	9-3
27	Texas	9-4
28	Troy	9-3
29	Texas A&M	8-4
30	Stanford	8-4
31	Missouri	8-4
32	Mississippi State	8-4
33	Iowa	8-4
34	West Virginia	8-3
35	Iowa State	8-4
36	Northwestern	8-5
37	Northern Illinois	8-5
38	North Texas	9-4
39	Temple	8-4
40	Oregon	8-4
41	Arkansas State	8-4
42	South Carolina	7-5
43	Marshall	8-4
44	Hawai'i	8-5
45	Pittsburgh	7-6
46	Middle Tennessee	8-6
47	Ohio	8-4
48	Duke	7-5
49	Auburn	7-5
50	Boston College	7-5
51	Georgia Tech	7-5
52	Miami	7-5
53	Memphis	8-5
54	Michigan State	7-5
55	Houston	8-4
56	Tulane	7-6
57	Virginia	7-5
58	Arizona State	7-6
59	Florida Intl	8-4
60	California	7-5
61	San Diego State	7-5
62	South Florida	7-5
63	Eastern Michigan	7-6
64	Wisconsin	7-5
65	Louisiana	7-7
66	Nevada	7-5
67	Vanderbilt	6-6
68	Western Michigan	7-5
69	Wake Forest	6-6
70	BYU	6-6
71	Purdue	6-6
72	Toledo	7-5
73	TCU	6-6
74	Louisiana Tech	7-5
75	Virginia Tech	6-6
76	Oklahoma State	6-6
77	Baylor	6-6
78	Minnesota	6-6
79	Wyoming	6-6
80	Miami (OH)	6-6
81	Florida State	5-7
82	Tennessee	5-7
83	UL Monroe	6-6
84	Southern Mississippi	6-5
85	Texas Tech	5-7
86	Indiana	5-7
87	Coastal Carolina	5-7
88	Maryland	5-7
89	USC	5-7
90	Florida Atlantic	5-7
91	Kansas State	5-7
92	Ole Miss	5-7
93	Air Force	5-7
94	SMU	5-7
95	Arizona	5-7
96	Colorado	5-7
97	Charlotte	5-7
98	Nebraska	4-8
99	UMass	4-8
100	UCLA	3-9
101	Akron	4-8
102	Illinois	4-8
103	UNLV	4-8
104	Ball State	4-8
105	Navy	3-10
106	Old Dominion	4-8
107	East Carolina	3-9
108	South Alabama	3-9
109	Kansas	3-9
110	New Mexico	3-9
111	Tulsa	3-9
112	Colorado State	3-9
113	Louisville	2-10
114	New Mexico State	3-9
115	Bowling Green	3-9
116	Georgia State	2-10
117	UTSA	3-9
118	Western Kentucky	3-9
119	North Carolina	2-9
120	Oregon State	2-10
121	Texas State	3-9
122	Arkansas	2-10
123	San Jose State	1-11
124	Rice	2-11
125	Kent State	2-10
126	UConn	1-11
127	Rutgers	1-11
128	Central Michigan	1-11
129	UTEP	1-11