Tenets of Wilson: 2018-01

2018-01-22

Superbowl LII Projection, Championship Sunday

Philadelphia over New England

Well here we are, the first 10 playoff games were moot. The #1 team in both the AFC and NFC made the Superbowl. Of course, this was the most likely scenario, and the projection I made at the start of the playoffs. Of 36 possible matchups, this one had a 14.5% chance of happening, over 1 in 7.

I really thought Jacksonville was going to pull off the win, but they just couldn't quite hang in there for the full 60 minutes. In the NFC, Minnesota struck first, but never scored again, and the result looks pretty certain by halftime. Both teams I rooted for lost, but I wasn't really rooting that hard.

I think Philadelphia is going to continue to score a whole lot of points in the Superbowl, so New England's offense is going to have to match them. We'll see if they've got one more miracle in them to make Tom Brady the only player ever with 6 Superbowl rings. I'm not really sure I'm rooting for either team this time, but I'll probably wear my Eagles hat, as it's the only article of clothing I have related to either team.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	13-3	0.785	++	++	++	++	++	50.57
NE	13-3	0.781	++	++	++	++	++	49.43
JAC	10-6	0.787	++	++	++	++	-	-
MIN	13-3	0.774	++	++	++	++	-	-
LAR	11-5	0.751	++	++	-	-	-	-
NO	11-5	0.719	++	++	++	-	-	-
LAC	9-7	0.694	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	13-3	0.693	++	++	++	-	-	-
BAL	9-7	0.686	-	-	-	-	-	-
KC	10-6	0.645	++	++	-	-	-	-
ATL	10-6	0.583	-	++	++	-	-	-
CAR	11-5	0.576	-	++	-	-	-	-
SEA	9-7	0.571	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	9-7	0.564	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	9-7	0.547	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	9-7	0.453	-	++	++	-	-	-
WAS	7-9	0.408	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	5-11	0.404	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-10	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	9-7	0.375	-	++	-	-	-	-
GB	7-9	0.369	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	7-9	0.367	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-11	0.362	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	8-8	0.355	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	6-10	0.347	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-11	0.324	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-12	0.320	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-11	0.305	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	6-10	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	4-12	0.220	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-13	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-16	0.160	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia and New England (Divisional Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage: Philadelphia (Week 16, Final)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 16, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 17, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Wildcard Saturday] Philadelphia over New England
[Wildcard Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Divisional Saturday] Philadelphia over New England
[Divisional Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia

2018-01-15

Superbowl LII Projection, Divisional Sunday

Jacksonville over Philadelphia

I wasn't expecting my Superbowl favorite to change this week, but I see now why it did. Jacksonville had one of the tougher games, so had a much lower shot of making the AFC Championship than New England did. Now that they're both in, I'm favoring Jacksonville just slightly. However, if I were to consider home field advantage, and gave home teams just a 50.9% average generically, the projection would flip to New England. Home teams were .566 this year, so consider that projection to have a very wide confidence interval. All 4 teams are actually pretty evenly matched, and as you can see they're all pretty close to an even 1 in 4 chance of winning it all.

So who am I rooting for now?

Jacksonville at New England:
Jacksonville, mostly because I'll look like a genius if my pick comes through.

Minnesota at Philadelphia:
This is a tough one. Most years I'd probably root for the Eagles. I even have an Eagles hat for some reason. But, I think it'd be cool to see the first Superbowl team to play in their own stadium. Just for the curiosity of it, I'll root for Minnesota.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
JAC	10-6	0.787	++	++	++	++	50.90	26.03
PHI	13-3	0.785	++	++	++	++	51.58	25.84
NE	13-3	0.781	++	++	++	++	49.10	24.65
MIN	13-3	0.774	++	++	++	++	48.42	23.49
LAR	11-5	0.751	++	++	-	-	-	-
NO	11-5	0.719	++	++	++	-	-	-
LAC	9-7	0.694	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	13-3	0.693	++	++	++	-	-	-
BAL	9-7	0.686	-	-	-	-	-	-
KC	10-6	0.645	++	++	-	-	-	-
ATL	10-6	0.583	-	++	++	-	-	-
CAR	11-5	0.576	-	++	-	-	-	-
SEA	9-7	0.571	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	9-7	0.564	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	9-7	0.547	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	9-7	0.453	-	++	++	-	-	-
WAS	7-9	0.408	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	5-11	0.404	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-10	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	9-7	0.375	-	++	-	-	-	-
GB	7-9	0.369	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	7-9	0.367	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-11	0.362	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	8-8	0.355	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	6-10	0.347	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-11	0.324	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-12	0.320	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-11	0.305	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	6-10	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	4-12	0.220	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-13	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-16	0.160	-	-	-	-	-	-

2018-01-14

Superbowl LII Projection, Divisional Saturday

Philadelphia over New England

I have no data to back this up, but I feel like the NFL hasn't had both #1 seeds play on Saturday in quite a few years. So usually it mangles up the projection after Divisional Saturday. This time, both #1s (and my favorites) played and won, reaffirming my projection for at least another week. That means if both home teams win today, the first two weeks of the playoffs could have just been skipped. Since the current playoff alignment began in 2002, there has been at least 1 upset in every year except for 2002, 2004, and 2015, so usually it's worth playing out the games.

Just a little housekeeping, in case you're wondering how the list below is sorted, with playoff teams seemingly scattered about, teams are sorted by Superbowl chances, followed by strength. Any eliminated playoff teams have the same Superbowl chances as Cleveland - 0% - so they are just sorted by strength now.

Now, for Sunday's rooting:
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh: Tough one! I want my system to be right, and I even picked Jacksonville in the 8th Annual Almost the Easiest Superbowl Contest on the Web, mostly to avoid the crowd that picked New England. But, a good friend of mine is a huge Steelers fan, so I usually root for them these days. I'll root for Pittsburgh.

New Orleans at Minnesota: I'll go for the favorite in this one too and root for the Vikings. Though it'll be a little painful to the the last 2 St. Louis Rams starting QBs facing each other in the NFC title game.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	13-3	0.784	++	++	++	++	54.66	28.39
NE	13-3	0.780	++	++	++	++	53.67	27.61
JAC	10-6	0.786	++	++	++	61.99	31.55	16.50
MIN	13-3	0.773	++	++	++	57.16	27.66	13.92
NO	11-5	0.719	++	++	++	42.84	17.69	7.64
PIT	13-3	0.693	++	++	++	38.01	14.77	5.94
LAR	11-5	0.751	++	++	-	-	-	-
LAC	9-7	0.694	-	-	-	-	-	-
BAL	9-7	0.686	-	-	-	-	-	-
KC	10-6	0.645	++	++	-	-	-	-
ATL	10-6	0.583	-	++	++	-	-	-
CAR	11-5	0.576	-	++	-	-	-	-
SEA	9-7	0.571	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	9-7	0.563	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	9-7	0.547	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	9-7	0.453	-	++	++	-	-	-
WAS	7-9	0.408	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	5-11	0.404	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-10	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	9-7	0.375	-	++	-	-	-	-
GB	7-9	0.369	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	7-9	0.367	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-11	0.362	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	8-8	0.355	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	6-10	0.347	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-11	0.325	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-12	0.321	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-11	0.305	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	6-10	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	4-12	0.220	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-13	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-16	0.161	-	-	-	-	-	-

2018-01-08

Superbowl LII Projection, Wildcard Sunday

Philadelphia over New England

The home teams both won, sending New Orleans to Minnesota and Jacksonville to Pittsburgh next Sunday. We'll see if any of the wildcard weekend teams can make their conference title games. I've got Jacksonville favored against Pittsburgh, but otherwise the bye teams are more likely to win.

Atlanta at Philadelphia: I realize they're not quite the same team they've been this year without their starting QB, but I'm rooting for Philadelphia to win.

Tennessee at New England: I feel like I should never root for New England. That said, Tennessee isn't a team I really care much about. I guess I'll root for Tennessee, just to shake up the playoffs a bit.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	13-3	0.780	++	++	++	81.09	43.53	23.37
PHI	13-3	0.784	++	++	++	72.19	39.44	21.07
JAC	10-6	0.787	++	++	++	61.97	35.15	19.19
MIN	13-3	0.773	++	++	++	57.16	31.27	16.22
NO	11-5	0.719	++	++	++	42.84	20.46	9.17
PIT	13-3	0.693	++	++	++	38.03	17.25	7.36
ATL	10-6	0.583	-	++	++	27.81	8.83	2.75
TEN	9-7	0.453	-	++	++	18.91	4.07	0.89
LAR	11-5	0.751	++	++	-	-	-	-
LAC	9-7	0.694	-	-	-	-	-	-
BAL	9-7	0.686	-	-	-	-	-	-
KC	10-6	0.645	++	++	-	-	-	-
CAR	11-5	0.576	-	++	-	-	-	-
SEA	9-7	0.571	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	9-7	0.563	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	9-7	0.547	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	7-9	0.408	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	5-11	0.404	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-10	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	9-7	0.375	-	++	-	-	-	-
GB	7-9	0.369	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	7-9	0.367	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-11	0.362	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	8-8	0.355	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	6-10	0.347	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-11	0.325	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-12	0.321	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-11	0.305	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	6-10	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	4-12	0.220	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-13	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-16	0.161	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage: Philadelphia (Week 16, Final)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 16, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 17, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Wildcard Saturday] Philadelphia over New England

2018-01-07

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 19

Week 19 this year is really just the New Year's Day bowls and the FCS title game, but I'm rolling with it.

As I expected, Wisconsin didn't hold their #1 ranking for long. Georgia beat #6 Oklahoma to take back #1, which they had early in the season. Alabama also had a quality win against #3 Clemson, but starting from #7 they could only reach #5. If they beat Georgia, I may have a different #1 than the playoff for once.

For some strength of schedule reason, Florida went from #94 to #91, and Western Kentucky went from #92 to #91, meaning we have a tie. Interestingly, Florida is 4-7 and Western Kentucky is 6-7. That probably won't hold, though, because Florida played Georgia earlier this year.

Of course, I've got to mention UCF. They're undefeated, and all the way up to #2 in my rankings after beating a pretty good Auburn team, and more importantly, after everyone's played their bowl game. To me, this means they should be in a position to have a shot at the title game. Everyone seems to be saying that sure, maybe they should have been let into the playoffs, but who could you have reasonably left out? I think Alabama is the obvious answer to that, but not everyone does.

1	Georgia	13-1
2	UCF	13-0
3	Wisconsin	13-1
4	Clemson	12-2
5	Alabama	12-1
6	Ohio State	12-2
7	Oklahoma	12-2
8	Penn State	11-2
9	USC	11-3
10	Notre Dame	10-3
11	Florida Atlantic	11-3
12	TCU	11-3
13	Boise State	11-3
14	Miami	10-3
15	Auburn	10-4
16	Toledo	11-3
17	Michigan State	10-3
18	Washington	10-3
19	Troy	11-2
20	Northwestern	10-3
21	Oklahoma State	10-3
22	Memphis	10-3
23	NC State	9-4
24	Army	10-3
25	San Diego State	10-3
26	South Carolina	9-4
27	Stanford	9-5
28	Mississippi State	9-4
29	South Florida	10-2
30	Fresno State	10-4
31	Washington State	9-4
32	Virginia Tech	9-4
33	LSU	9-4
34	Iowa	8-5
35	North Texas	9-5
36	Wake Forest	8-5
37	Iowa State	8-5
38	Michigan	8-5
39	Ohio	9-4
40	Louisville	8-5
41	Kansas State	8-5
42	Appalachian State	9-4
43	Boston College	7-6
44	Northern Illinois	8-5
45	Marshall	8-5
46	Arizona State	7-6
47	Florida Intl	8-5
48	Oregon	7-6
49	Florida State	7-6
50	Navy	7-6
51	Texas A&M	7-6
52	Duke	7-6
53	Central Michigan	8-5
54	Kentucky	7-6
55	Purdue	7-6
56	Southern Mississippi	8-5
57	Wyoming	8-5
58	Utah	7-6
59	Houston	7-5
60	Texas	7-6
61	SMU	7-6
62	West Virginia	7-6
63	Arizona	7-6
64	Temple	7-6
65	Missouri	7-6
66	Akron	7-7
67	Louisiana Tech	7-6
68	UAB	8-5
69	UCLA	6-7
70	Texas Tech	6-7
71	Ole Miss	6-6
72	Middle Tennessee	7-6
73	Virginia	6-7
74	Georgia State	7-5
75	Georgia Tech	5-6
76	Western Michigan	6-6
77	Colorado State	7-6
78	Arkansas State	7-5
79	Buffalo	6-6
80	New Mexico State	7-6
81	Tulane	5-7
82	UT San Antonio	6-5
83	California	5-7
84	Pittsburgh	5-7
85	Vanderbilt	5-7
86	Indiana	5-7
87	Utah State	6-7
88	Minnesota	5-7
89	Syracuse	4-8
90	Colorado	5-7
T-91	Florida	4-7
T-91	Western Kentucky	6-7
93	Air Force	5-7
94	Maryland	4-8
95	Eastern Michigan	5-7
96	Miami (OH)	5-7
97	Nebraska	4-8
98	Arkansas	4-8
99	Old Dominion	5-7
100	Cincinnati	4-8
101	Tennessee	4-8
102	UNLV	5-7
103	Rutgers	4-8
104	Louisiana	5-7
105	Louisiana Monroe	4-8
106	North Carolina	3-9
107	Idaho	4-8
108	South Alabama	4-8
109	East Carolina	3-9
110	BYU	4-9
111	UMass	4-8
112	Connecticut	3-9
113	Nevada	3-9
114	New Mexico	3-9
115	Hawai'i	3-9
116	Bowling Green	2-10
117	Coastal Carolina	3-9
118	Kent State	2-10
119	Tulsa	2-10
120	Illinois	2-10
121	Georgia Southern	2-10
122	Ball State	2-10
123	Baylor	1-11
124	Kansas	1-11
125	Charlotte	1-11
126	San Jose State	2-11
127	Texas State	2-10
128	Oregon State	1-11
129	Rice	1-11
130	UTEP	0-12

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia
Week 6 Georgia
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Georgia
Week 10 Georgia
Week 11 Alabama
Week 12 Alabama
Week 13 Wisconsin
Week 14 Georgia
Week 15 Georgia
Week 16 Georgia
Week 17 Georgia
Week 18 Wisconsin

Superbowl LII Projection, Wildcard Saturday

Philadelphia over New England

Both of the favorites lost yesterday, which generally weakens the field and strengthens the position of the top teams. Atlanta moves on to face Philadelphia, and Tennessee, a team with a negative point differential on the season, will have to wait for today's results. If Buffalo (another negative point differential team) can pull off an upset too, Tennessee will "only" have to face the #2 team, Pittsburgh. Otherwise they'll head to New England.

Today, New Orleans hosts Carolina in a division rematch. New Orleans has already beat them twice. I believe I had heard, at one point, that beating a team 3 times in one season was basically impossible. Now obviously it's completely possible, but I assumed that was based on past data that more often than not a season sweep of a division rival leads to a loss if you face them in the playoffs. I couldn't find data on that anywhere, so I just looked it up myself. I went back to 2002, which is when this playoff format mostly took shape.

Assuming I counted correctly, since then there have been 18 division rival matchups in the playoffs. 12 of them were after a 1-1 season, so they can be ignored for my purposes. That leaves just 6 season sweeps. The third win eluded only 2 teams, Dallas in 2007 against New York, and Green Bay in 2004 against Minnesota. Teams completing the three win sweep were 2002 Pittsburgh over Cleveland, 2004 St. Louis over Seattle, 2008 Pittsburgh over Baltimore, and 2009 Dallas over Philadelphia.

So, while it is rare to beat a team 3 times, it's because the opportunity is rare, not because those first 2 wins make the third any harder. Everyone in New Orleans can relax, there is no curse preventing you from winning today.

Now then, onto my rooting interests.

Buffalo at Jacksonville: I was all-in on Jacksonville because they wear white at home, and could have possibly force the Rams to wear their mismatched helmet and jersey in the Superbowl, but now that's not going to happen. I could root for Jags owner Shad Khan, who tried to buy the Rams and would have probably kept them in St. Louis, being a southern Illinois guy. I could also see rooting for another fun upset by Buffalo. As a tiebreaker, I'll use Richie Incognito. Go Jaguars.

Carolina at New Orleans: I still can't really root for either of these teams from their days in the old NFC West with the Rams. Division rivalries are strong. I figure Cam Newton's pretty young and will have more chances, so I'll root for old guy Drew Brees to get at least one more shot. Go Saints.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	13-3	0.781	++	++	++	81.70	45.39	24.48
PHI	13-3	0.784	++	++	++	72.24	40.22	21.71
MIN	13-3	0.773	++	++	++	62.15	33.98	17.83
JAC	10-6	0.787	++	++	85.99	53.28	30.23	16.57
PIT	13-3	0.693	++	++	++	42.96	19.41	8.33
NO	11-5	0.719	++	++	65.24	27.93	13.34	6.07
ATL	10-6	0.583	-	++	++	27.76	9.16	2.91
CAR	11-5	0.576	-	++	34.76	9.92	3.31	1.03
TEN	9-7	0.453	-	++	++	20.03	4.43	0.97
BUF	9-7	0.375	-	++	14.01	2.03	0.54	0.09
LAR	11-5	0.751	++	++	-	-	-	-
LAC	9-7	0.694	-	-	-	-	-	-
BAL	9-7	0.686	-	-	-	-	-	-
KC	10-6	0.645	++	++	-	-	-	-
SEA	9-7	0.571	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	9-7	0.564	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	9-7	0.547	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	7-9	0.408	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	5-11	0.404	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-10	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
GB	7-9	0.369	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	7-9	0.367	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-11	0.362	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	8-8	0.355	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	6-10	0.347	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-11	0.325	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-12	0.321	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-11	0.305	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	6-10	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	4-12	0.220	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-13	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-16	0.160	-	-	-	-	-	-

2018-01-01

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 17, Final

Philadelphia over New England

The regular season is over and the playoffs are set. No team is completely running away with the title, but New England is the favored champ, followed by Philadelphia. It always helps at this juncture to have a first round bye, and thus a 100% chance of making the next round, as compared to Jacksonville's 86%, for example. It took 10 wins to make the playoffs in the NFC, and 9 along with some tiebreakers in the AFC. Tennessee and Buffalo made AFC wildcard slots, while Baltimore and LA did not.

You can see my projections below, but in the playoffs I always state my rooting interests too. Usually very few teams playing this first weekend will be likely to be even in a conference title game, but upsets do happen.

Tennessee at Kansas City: I've got to root for the Chiefs as the geographically closest team to me now, and the only other team I've seen in their home stadium.

Atlanta at Los Angeles: It's hard to bring myself to root for the Rams so soon after they abandoned St. Louis. I would kind of like to see their mismatched jersey and helmet if an AFC team chooses to wear white in the Superbowl, though, and I'm indifferent to Atlanta, so what the heck, go LA.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	13-3	0.781	++	++	++	72.92	40.43	21.46
PHI	13-3	0.784	++	++	++	66.35	35.81	19.49
JAC	10-6	0.787	++	++	85.99	53.31	30.10	16.24
MIN	13-3	0.773	++	++	++	56.00	29.99	15.86
LAR	11-5	0.751	++	++	68.27	32.00	15.96	7.95
PIT	13-3	0.693	++	++	++	41.23	18.43	7.73
NO	11-5	0.719	++	++	65.24	27.24	12.36	5.66
KC	10-6	0.645	++	++	68.68	24.26	9.17	3.38
CAR	11-5	0.576	-	++	34.76	9.60	2.97	0.93
ATL	10-6	0.583	-	++	31.73	8.81	2.90	0.93
TEN	9-7	0.453	-	++	31.32	6.26	1.39	0.29
BUF	9-7	0.375	-	++	14.01	2.02	0.49	0.08
LAC	9-7	0.694	-	-	-	-	-	-
BAL	9-7	0.686	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	9-7	0.571	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	9-7	0.564	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	9-7	0.547	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	7-9	0.408	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	5-11	0.404	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-10	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
GB	7-9	0.369	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	7-9	0.367	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-11	0.362	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	8-8	0.355	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	6-10	0.347	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-11	0.325	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-12	0.321	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-11	0.305	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	6-10	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	4-12	0.220	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-13	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-16	0.160	-	-	-	-	-	-