2017-12-26

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 16, Final

Philadelphia over New England

We had a bonus Monday game this week due to Christmas. In the day game, Pittsburgh beat Houston. That locked them into a first round bye, but didn't change much else because Pittsburgh was pretty heavily favored. They're up to a 15% chance of homefield advantage, for which they would need to do better than New England next week (i.e., if New England loses, Pittsburgh must win or tie. If New England ties, Pittsburgh would need to win).

The night game featured Philadelphia defeating Oakland to clinch homefield advantage in the NFC. Minnesota should get the other bye, but Carolina still has an outside chance. They need a win and a New Orleans loss (or tie) to win the division, and Minnesota to lose so they'll be tied at 12-4. But they also need LA not to win, because Carolina won't win out of the 3-team tiebreaker.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI13-20.777++++++63.9634.3319.34
NE12-30.745++++++59.0931.1315.23
JAC10-50.784++++71.6243.8926.1514.21
MIN12-30.746++++99.1449.0924.7312.92
LAR11-40.775++++72.5739.0821.0711.83
PIT12-30.687++++++43.8920.208.48
NO11-40.73089.62++64.1229.0013.636.84
BAL9-60.697-97.9553.3124.7111.264.85
KC9-60.640++++47.5119.157.432.75
CAR11-40.60010.38++35.7311.143.721.34
LAC8-70.652-54.2618.447.403.401.30
ATL9-60.556-60.9716.764.441.420.46
SEA9-60.576-39.0311.673.281.100.37
TEN8-70.444-26.535.231.170.300.06
BUF8-70.363-21.253.890.690.130.02
DAL8-70.533------
DET8-70.519------
WAS7-80.426------
GB7-80.417------
CHI5-100.394------
TB4-110.389------
OAK6-90.388------
NYJ5-100.366------
CIN6-90.354------
SF5-100.353------
ARI7-80.349------
HOU4-110.339------
DEN5-100.309------
MIA6-90.284------
IND3-120.212------
NYG2-130.203------
CLE0-150.168------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage: Philadelphia (Week 16, Final)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England

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