2018-01-01

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 17, Final

Philadelphia over New England

The regular season is over and the playoffs are set. No team is completely running away with the title, but New England is the favored champ, followed by Philadelphia. It always helps at this juncture to have a first round bye, and thus a 100% chance of making the next round, as compared to Jacksonville's 86%, for example. It took 10 wins to make the playoffs in the NFC, and 9 along with some tiebreakers in the AFC. Tennessee and Buffalo made AFC wildcard slots, while Baltimore and LA did not.

You can see my projections below, but in the playoffs I always state my rooting interests too. Usually very few teams playing this first weekend will be likely to be even in a conference title game, but upsets do happen.

Tennessee at Kansas City: I've got to root for the Chiefs as the geographically closest team to me now, and the only other team I've seen in their home stadium.

Atlanta at Los Angeles: It's hard to bring myself to root for the Rams so soon after they abandoned St. Louis. I would kind of like to see their mismatched jersey and helmet if an AFC team chooses to wear white in the Superbowl, though, and I'm indifferent to Atlanta, so what the heck, go LA.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE13-30.781++++++72.9240.4321.46
PHI13-30.784++++++66.3535.8119.49
JAC10-60.787++++85.9953.3130.1016.24
MIN13-30.773++++++56.0029.9915.86
LAR11-50.751++++68.2732.0015.967.95
PIT13-30.693++++++41.2318.437.73
NO11-50.719++++65.2427.2412.365.66
KC10-60.645++++68.6824.269.173.38
CAR11-50.576-++34.769.602.970.93
ATL10-60.583-++31.738.812.900.93
TEN9-70.453-++31.326.261.390.29
BUF9-70.375-++14.012.020.490.08
LAC9-70.694------
BAL9-70.686------
SEA9-70.571------
DET9-70.564------
DAL9-70.547------
WAS7-90.408------
TB5-110.404------
SF6-100.394------
GB7-90.369------
CIN7-90.367------
CHI5-110.362------
ARI8-80.355------
OAK6-100.347------
NYJ5-110.325------
HOU4-120.321------
DEN5-110.305------
MIA6-100.271------
IND4-120.220------
NYG3-130.207------
CLE0-160.160------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage: Philadelphia (Week 16, Final)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 16, Final] Philadelphia over New England

No comments:

Post a Comment