Superbowl LII Projection, Week 9, Sunday

Philadelphia over Jacksonville

No one quite hit a 99% playoff probability yet, but Philadelphia's close at 98.65%. We have our first empty slots in the big matrix, first for Cleveland's chances of winning the Superbowl. Obviously, if they can make the playoffs, they can win the Superbowl, but it didn't happen in the 1.1 billion simulations I ran. Similarly, San Francisco is not actually eliminated from the playoffs, but didn't make it in any of my simulations. I tested this by running more simulations where they go 7-9, winning the rest of their games 1000-0, just to make sure they cover any possible tiebreakers. However, it also required allowing ties, which I don't usually do until I need to double-check any 0% or 100% values. Even in that case, they only get about a .0008% chance of winning the NFC West, so I'd say it's safe to spend your playoff ticket money if you're a San Francisco fan.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	8-1	0.666	89.57	98.65	89.76	52.42	29.28	16.80
JAC	5-3	0.671	78.24	94.20	78.46	48.68	29.86	16.34
LAR	6-2	0.664	73.68	89.47	69.15	39.21	21.51	12.27
PIT	6-2	0.586	91.62	95.58	75.68	38.82	19.05	8.70
NO	6-2	0.620	71.88	87.67	63.15	31.75	15.62	8.21
KC	6-3	0.579	88.69	92.53	66.77	32.95	15.99	7.20
MIN	6-2	0.599	76.73	85.58	60.26	28.61	13.34	6.71
NE	6-2	0.563	66.23	90.36	66.38	31.94	14.78	6.41
BUF	5-3	0.556	31.21	72.19	43.32	20.18	9.27	3.97
SEA	5-3	0.585	25.40	51.60	28.62	12.98	5.94	2.91
DAL	5-3	0.585	10.19	50.69	27.26	12.16	5.61	2.74
CAR	6-3	0.523	23.95	55.76	27.59	10.68	4.19	1.80
BAL	4-5	0.544	7.35	33.52	16.50	7.38	3.31	1.38
TEN	5-3	0.476	18.53	51.99	24.48	9.40	3.63	1.28
GB	4-3	0.506	13.08	31.04	13.94	5.13	1.94	0.80
HOU	3-5	0.535	3.18	14.21	6.72	2.98	1.32	0.54
DET	3-4	0.513	9.38	17.72	7.80	2.91	1.12	0.46
ATL	4-4	0.496	4.07	13.42	5.85	2.07	0.77	0.31
LAC	3-5	0.502	3.66	10.03	4.50	1.85	0.76	0.28
OAK	4-5	0.464	5.17	12.40	5.17	1.90	0.70	0.24
WAS	4-4	0.466	0.24	13.71	5.16	1.67	0.58	0.22
NYJ	4-5	0.467	0.67	10.09	4.09	1.51	0.57	0.20
CIN	3-5	0.427	1.02	6.65	2.40	0.80	0.27	0.08
DEN	3-5	0.403	2.49	7.54	2.68	0.84	0.27	0.08
MIA	4-4	0.358	1.89	8.09	2.68	0.73	0.20	0.05
CHI	3-5	0.414	0.81	1.74	0.58	0.16	0.05	0.02
ARI	4-4	0.376	0.92	2.49	0.74	0.19	0.05	0.01
TB	2-6	0.419	0.09	0.45	0.15	0.04	0.01	0.00
IND	3-6	0.330	0.06	0.61	0.17	0.04	0.01	0.00
NYG	1-7	0.349	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CLE	0-8	0.336	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-
SF	0-9	0.320	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville