Both of the favorites lost yesterday, which generally weakens the field and strengthens the position of the top teams. Atlanta moves on to face Philadelphia, and Tennessee, a team with a negative point differential on the season, will have to wait for today's results. If Buffalo (another negative point differential team) can pull off an upset too, Tennessee will "only" have to face the #2 team, Pittsburgh. Otherwise they'll head to New England.
Today, New Orleans hosts Carolina in a division rematch. New Orleans has already beat them twice. I believe I had heard, at one point, that beating a team 3 times in one season was basically impossible. Now obviously it's completely possible, but I assumed that was based on past data that more often than not a season sweep of a division rival leads to a loss if you face them in the playoffs. I couldn't find data on that anywhere, so I just looked it up myself. I went back to 2002, which is when this playoff format mostly took shape.
Assuming I counted correctly, since then there have been 18 division rival matchups in the playoffs. 12 of them were after a 1-1 season, so they can be ignored for my purposes. That leaves just 6 season sweeps. The third win eluded only 2 teams, Dallas in 2007 against New York, and Green Bay in 2004 against Minnesota. Teams completing the three win sweep were 2002 Pittsburgh over Cleveland, 2004 St. Louis over Seattle, 2008 Pittsburgh over Baltimore, and 2009 Dallas over Philadelphia.
So, while it is rare to beat a team 3 times, it's because the opportunity is rare, not because those first 2 wins make the third any harder. Everyone in New Orleans can relax, there is no curse preventing you from winning today.
Now then, onto my rooting interests.
Buffalo at Jacksonville: I was all-in on Jacksonville because they wear white at home, and could have possibly force the Rams to wear their mismatched helmet and jersey in the Superbowl, but now that's not going to happen. I could root for Jags owner Shad Khan, who tried to buy the Rams and would have probably kept them in St. Louis, being a southern Illinois guy. I could also see rooting for another fun upset by Buffalo. As a tiebreaker, I'll use Richie Incognito. Go Jaguars.
Carolina at New Orleans: I still can't really root for either of these teams from their days in the old NFC West with the Rams. Division rivalries are strong. I figure Cam Newton's pretty young and will have more chances, so I'll root for old guy Drew Brees to get at least one more shot. Go Saints.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 13-3 | 0.781 | ++ | ++ | ++ | 81.70 | 45.39 | 24.48 |
| PHI | 13-3 | 0.784 | ++ | ++ | ++ | 72.24 | 40.22 | 21.71 |
| MIN | 13-3 | 0.773 | ++ | ++ | ++ | 62.15 | 33.98 | 17.83 |
| JAC | 10-6 | 0.787 | ++ | ++ | 85.99 | 53.28 | 30.23 | 16.57 |
| PIT | 13-3 | 0.693 | ++ | ++ | ++ | 42.96 | 19.41 | 8.33 |
| NO | 11-5 | 0.719 | ++ | ++ | 65.24 | 27.93 | 13.34 | 6.07 |
| ATL | 10-6 | 0.583 | - | ++ | ++ | 27.76 | 9.16 | 2.91 |
| CAR | 11-5 | 0.576 | - | ++ | 34.76 | 9.92 | 3.31 | 1.03 |
| TEN | 9-7 | 0.453 | - | ++ | ++ | 20.03 | 4.43 | 0.97 |
| BUF | 9-7 | 0.375 | - | ++ | 14.01 | 2.03 | 0.54 | 0.09 |
| LAR | 11-5 | 0.751 | ++ | ++ | - | - | - | - |
| LAC | 9-7 | 0.694 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| BAL | 9-7 | 0.686 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| KC | 10-6 | 0.645 | ++ | ++ | - | - | - | - |
| SEA | 9-7 | 0.571 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DET | 9-7 | 0.564 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DAL | 9-7 | 0.547 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| WAS | 7-9 | 0.408 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TB | 5-11 | 0.404 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SF | 6-10 | 0.394 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| GB | 7-9 | 0.369 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CIN | 7-9 | 0.367 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CHI | 5-11 | 0.362 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ARI | 8-8 | 0.355 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| OAK | 6-10 | 0.347 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NYJ | 5-11 | 0.325 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HOU | 4-12 | 0.321 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DEN | 5-11 | 0.305 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| MIA | 6-10 | 0.271 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| IND | 4-12 | 0.220 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NYG | 3-13 | 0.207 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CLE | 0-16 | 0.160 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage: Philadelphia (Week 16, Final)
First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 16, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 17, Final] Philadelphia over New England
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