I corrected my last couple of posts to reflect that really the projection has been Jacksonville over Philadelphia, not the other way around, for about a week. That's because Jacksonville's strength is higher, and so they'd be favored in that matchup, but I missed that because Philadelphia was the team overall most likely to win.
Jacksonville clinched at least a wildcard spot this week, while New England and Minnesota clinched their divisions, and Philadelphia clinched a first-round bye. I've got Philadelphia with a 97% chance of homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, challenged only by Minnesota. In the AFC, New England has a 66% chance, Pittsburgh is at 24%, and Jacksonville is now at 10%.
Eliminated this week were Arizona, Cincinnati, and the New York Jets. New England's division clinch eliminated Buffalo from its previously slim chance of winning it. Detroit and Green Bay were eliminated from the NFC North because Minnesota clinched, and Oakland lost to eliminate themselves from the AFC West. The most competitive remaining division in the NFC South, which could tighten up with an Atlanta win tonight, or become a 2-team race between New Orleans and Carolina if they lose.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAC | 10-4 | 0.805 | 99.65 | ++ | 88.44 | 61.16 | 40.83 | 24.64 |
| PHI | 12-2 | 0.756 | ++ | ++ | ++ | 62.34 | 33.84 | 17.95 |
| LAR | 10-4 | 0.766 | 99.04 | 99.45 | 71.82 | 40.99 | 22.97 | 12.50 |
| NE | 11-3 | 0.713 | ++ | ++ | 94.15 | 52.78 | 25.19 | 12.06 |
| MIN | 11-3 | 0.708 | ++ | ++ | 95.67 | 45.74 | 21.96 | 10.36 |
| NO | 10-4 | 0.710 | 68.73 | 96.86 | 59.38 | 27.66 | 13.14 | 6.22 |
| PIT | 11-3 | 0.634 | ++ | ++ | 89.54 | 35.07 | 14.14 | 5.54 |
| BAL | 8-6 | 0.682 | - | 92.46 | 50.91 | 23.71 | 10.42 | 4.62 |
| KC | 8-6 | 0.610 | 97.04 | 97.04 | 46.60 | 18.18 | 6.53 | 2.41 |
| CAR | 10-4 | 0.593 | 19.71 | 93.28 | 36.95 | 12.44 | 4.42 | 1.56 |
| ATL | 8-5 | 0.571 | 11.57 | 60.90 | 21.09 | 6.57 | 2.26 | 0.75 |
| LAC | 7-7 | 0.632 | 2.96 | 27.82 | 11.03 | 4.55 | 1.84 | 0.72 |
| DET | 8-6 | 0.535 | - | 25.20 | 7.43 | 2.03 | 0.66 | 0.20 |
| SEA | 8-6 | 0.557 | 0.96 | 17.02 | 5.45 | 1.60 | 0.55 | 0.18 |
| TEN | 8-6 | 0.452 | 0.35 | 31.83 | 7.68 | 2.00 | 0.51 | 0.12 |
| BUF | 8-6 | 0.406 | - | 47.89 | 11.21 | 2.48 | 0.52 | 0.11 |
| DAL | 8-6 | 0.550 | - | 6.70 | 2.07 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.06 |
| GB | 7-7 | 0.452 | - | 0.58 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| MIA | 6-8 | 0.314 | - | 2.70 | 0.39 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| OAK | 6-8 | 0.409 | - | 0.24 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| TB | 4-9 | 0.401 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| WAS | 6-8 | 0.396 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HOU | 4-10 | 0.389 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NYJ | 5-9 | 0.385 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CHI | 4-10 | 0.357 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DEN | 5-9 | 0.342 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CIN | 5-9 | 0.334 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SF | 4-10 | 0.324 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ARI | 6-8 | 0.309 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NYG | 2-12 | 0.248 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| IND | 3-11 | 0.228 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CLE | 0-14 | 0.203 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)
First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
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