Superbowl LII Projection, Week 5, Sunday

Kansas City over Philadelphia

Even though Kansas City is the AFC favorite, Jacksonville is actually the strongest team in the NFL right now. It's still early enough in the season for those numbers to be a little uncertain, but part of the reason is the end of the Sunday night game. The game was basically over with KC leading 39-20 and just under 3 minutes to go. But, Houston scored a touchdown, then Kansas City went 3-and-out but were close enough for a field goal with a minute to go, putting them back up by 16, and then Houston threw a long jump-ball pass to the 1-yard-line and scored another Touchdown, plus a 2-point conversion. The clock was at 0:00 at that point, so there was no ensuing kickoff, which means the touchdown, and especially the 2 point conversion, were completely meaningless. As a result, the game appeared to be close despite the result never really being in question. Either way, Kansas City won, and put their playoff chances up over 90%.

In the NFC, Philadelphia won 34-7 and boosted themselves up to be the favorite to make the Superbowl. They were were also helped by a loss for Dallas, and a little bit by the Giants loss, though they are far enough out they aren't much of a factor in the NFC East.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	5-0	0.581	70.13	92.52	79.24	44.10	24.00	12.98
JAC	3-2	0.600	68.58	78.68	61.23	35.26	19.80	11.09
PHI	4-1	0.570	74.59	83.15	64.76	34.81	18.64	9.70
GB	4-1	0.545	51.43	71.03	51.91	26.37	13.33	6.61
DEN	3-1	0.549	26.18	66.06	44.24	22.20	11.23	5.71
SEA	3-2	0.552	51.68	61.85	40.81	20.96	10.76	5.41
BUF	3-2	0.542	46.80	61.40	42.16	20.97	10.29	5.15
CAR	4-1	0.525	37.90	62.38	43.04	20.90	10.07	4.79
LAR	3-2	0.551	41.73	55.89	36.27	18.57	9.51	4.77
DET	3-2	0.553	33.26	53.98	35.70	18.35	9.42	4.74
ATL	3-1	0.528	32.70	57.04	38.97	19.05	9.23	4.42
PIT	3-2	0.524	48.38	58.12	36.31	17.29	8.18	3.95
NE	3-2	0.510	30.68	46.81	29.43	13.57	6.21	2.91
NO	2-2	0.532	16.71	33.55	20.80	10.22	5.00	2.41
BAL	3-2	0.483	33.47	47.73	27.02	11.68	5.03	2.22
HOU	2-3	0.523	18.36	31.11	18.13	8.72	4.15	2.00
MIN	2-2	0.507	13.67	31.44	18.52	8.62	4.02	1.84
WAS	2-2	0.504	15.24	32.57	18.74	8.65	4.02	1.83
TB	2-2	0.504	12.68	27.47	16.19	7.49	3.46	1.57
CIN	2-3	0.503	17.83	27.47	15.52	7.03	3.19	1.47
NYJ	3-2	0.468	15.78	30.56	17.09	7.16	2.99	1.28
OAK	2-3	0.498	3.32	18.39	9.81	4.37	1.98	0.91
DAL	2-3	0.487	9.89	16.95	8.91	3.99	1.79	0.78
TEN	2-3	0.444	8.94	14.45	7.08	2.85	1.14	0.46
MIA	2-2	0.422	6.73	14.04	6.94	2.59	0.97	0.37
IND	2-3	0.403	4.11	8.26	3.77	1.37	0.49	0.18
ARI	2-3	0.412	6.15	7.79	3.25	1.21	0.45	0.17
LAC	1-4	0.466	0.37	3.93	1.84	0.76	0.32	0.14
CHI	1-3	0.418	1.63	3.73	1.65	0.62	0.24	0.09
SF	0-5	0.435	0.44	0.71	0.30	0.12	0.05	0.02
NYG	0-5	0.417	0.28	0.47	0.19	0.07	0.03	0.01
CLE	0-5	0.405	0.32	0.48	0.19	0.07	0.02	0.01

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit