Superbowl LII Projection, Week 8, Sunday

Philadelphia over Jacksonville

My projection stayed almost the same, with just the winner and loser swapping places, because Philadelphia won and Jacksonville was on bye. Jacksonville's playoff chances actually went up a little, but not as much as Philadelphia's did. We're getting to the point in the year when I have to run a whole lot of simulations to try to get every possible champion to hit at least once, because it'd be quite the rare universe where San Francisco wound up as your Superbowl champs. I ran 1 billion simulations, and the numbers I output for my own use still showed a 0.000000% chance, which means it was somewhere less than 5 out of that billion. By comparison, their odds of making the playoffs are about 40 in 100 million, and odds of making the Superbowl round to 1 in 100 million.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	7-1	0.632	88.57	97.24	85.86	48.46	26.64	14.67
JAC	4-3	0.639	69.50	83.81	63.95	36.92	21.22	11.55
PIT	6-2	0.586	85.07	92.92	72.76	37.60	19.03	9.30
LAR	5-2	0.623	50.11	80.98	57.82	31.25	16.65	9.01
MIN	6-2	0.599	76.95	86.90	64.50	33.00	16.54	8.53
BUF	5-2	0.587	49.50	83.44	60.24	31.06	15.73	7.71
KC	5-2	0.578	78.13	85.25	61.56	30.79	15.26	7.33
NE	6-2	0.563	48.39	85.29	59.27	28.78	13.78	6.41
NO	5-2	0.584	61.41	78.00	52.29	25.55	12.40	6.22
SEA	5-2	0.586	49.20	74.97	49.66	24.49	11.99	6.04
BAL	4-4	0.551	12.79	46.89	25.17	11.74	5.49	2.49
DAL	4-3	0.565	11.15	39.91	21.84	10.07	4.74	2.28
CAR	5-3	0.515	22.78	44.33	22.43	9.20	3.82	1.65
HOU	3-4	0.543	14.17	29.16	15.14	7.01	3.25	1.45
GB	4-3	0.506	12.69	32.81	15.70	6.31	2.57	1.09
ATL	4-3	0.502	14.22	30.22	15.08	6.00	2.42	1.02
TEN	4-3	0.471	16.27	29.42	13.81	5.42	2.13	0.80
DEN	3-3	0.476	15.33	26.93	12.91	5.06	1.99	0.76
DET	3-4	0.513	9.56	19.27	8.94	3.65	1.52	0.65
CIN	3-4	0.467	2.15	11.45	4.91	1.90	0.74	0.28
LAC	3-5	0.502	3.56	7.78	3.58	1.51	0.64	0.26
WAS	3-4	0.462	0.27	7.96	3.17	1.13	0.42	0.16
OAK	3-5	0.457	2.98	5.97	2.47	0.92	0.35	0.13
MIA	4-3	0.362	2.00	9.12	3.25	0.94	0.27	0.08
TB	2-5	0.459	1.59	3.59	1.42	0.50	0.18	0.07
NYJ	3-5	0.439	0.12	2.40	0.92	0.33	0.12	0.04
CHI	3-5	0.414	0.80	2.00	0.70	0.22	0.07	0.02
ARI	3-4	0.368	0.69	1.73	0.55	0.15	0.04	0.01
NYG	1-6	0.401	0.01	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
IND	2-6	0.332	0.05	0.17	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00
CLE	0-8	0.336	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	0-8	0.343	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia