Superbowl LII Projection, Week 1

Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams

If you've followed along in the past, you may have noticed I usually post projections after every day of games, except in week 1, where I wait for everyone to play a game. Well, Hurricane Irma moved a week 1 game to week 11, so Miami and Tampa have no points scored or against, which is very unfortunate in my projection formula. I've done the sanest thing I could think to do, which is just assume they both have a strength of .500 until they play.

Here's a quick rundown originally taken from 2014's introductory post.

Each year I project the Superbowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.

If my week 1 projection comes true, I'll eat my hat. But, Jacksonville and LA both scored a ton of points and didn't allow many, and are the only 1-0 teams in their divisions, so they're in the position of strength for their respective conferences. But, everyone's no more than 2 games of the pace, so anything can still happen.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
JAC	1-0	0.530	53.54	63.76	46.28	24.28	12.68	6.54
BAL	1-0	0.531	42.69	58.07	41.98	22.09	11.58	5.99
LAR	1-0	0.531	49.96	59.56	42.46	22.03	11.39	5.94
DAL	1-0	0.531	41.50	56.42	40.09	20.87	10.82	5.65
CAR	1-0	0.531	36.45	53.82	38.38	19.98	10.37	5.41
BUF	1-0	0.521	45.16	57.43	40.50	20.81	10.66	5.40
PHI	1-0	0.521	38.12	53.18	36.91	18.80	9.55	4.89
OAK	1-0	0.519	29.85	50.03	34.99	17.92	9.16	4.63
KC	1-0	0.518	30.62	50.32	35.19	17.97	9.15	4.61
GB	1-0	0.523	30.30	49.25	34.24	17.50	8.93	4.58
DET	1-0	0.517	29.33	48.18	33.15	16.73	8.43	4.28
MIN	1-0	0.517	29.19	47.37	32.48	16.40	8.27	4.20
PIT	1-0	0.507	34.15	49.97	34.08	16.99	8.46	4.17
ATL	1-0	0.513	30.76	47.55	32.44	16.23	8.11	4.08
DEN	1-0	0.506	28.90	47.80	32.58	16.21	8.06	3.96
MIA	0-0	0.500	26.22	38.01	24.68	12.12	5.94	2.89
TB	0-0	0.500	21.01	34.71	22.39	10.88	5.29	2.59
CLE	0-1	0.493	13.57	24.90	15.23	7.37	3.57	1.71
TEN	0-1	0.481	18.03	26.01	15.49	7.29	3.43	1.60
LAC	0-1	0.494	10.63	22.85	14.01	6.80	3.30	1.58
ARI	0-1	0.483	18.04	25.20	14.83	6.94	3.25	1.54
NE	0-1	0.482	15.93	24.31	14.44	6.82	3.22	1.51
SEA	0-1	0.477	16.73	23.54	13.68	6.33	2.93	1.37
IND	0-1	0.469	15.36	24.01	14.13	6.49	2.98	1.36
CHI	0-1	0.487	11.18	21.00	12.55	5.94	2.81	1.34
NYJ	0-1	0.479	12.68	21.72	12.79	6.00	2.82	1.31
NO	0-1	0.483	11.78	20.64	12.22	5.73	2.69	1.28
HOU	0-1	0.470	13.07	22.08	12.78	5.87	2.70	1.23
WAS	0-1	0.479	10.90	20.15	11.76	5.47	2.55	1.20
SF	0-1	0.469	15.28	21.55	12.22	5.54	2.51	1.15
CIN	0-1	0.469	9.59	18.74	10.85	4.98	2.29	1.04
NYG	0-1	0.469	9.48	17.88	10.20	4.64	2.11	0.97