2017-12-12

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 14, Final

Jacksonville over Philadelphia

New England took a surprising loss to Miami, and Jacksonville is back in the favorite spot for the AFC. My Pittsburgh-fan friend surmised that they would now be able to clinch homefield advantage if they beat New England next week, since at best New England could tie them at 12-4 but then lose in the head-to-head tiebreaker, so I checked it out. The hitch in his plan is Jacksonville, who could also still get to 12-4, and beat Pittsburgh this year. In the event all 3 teams finished tied, the head-to-head sweep would not apply, but Jacksonville would be one finish with an AFC record of 10-2 vs 9-3 for the other two.

Houston is officially eliminated with that Miami win, since at least one of Buffalo or Miami will have to finish with under 9 losses, along with New England in the AFC East, and in the AFC South Jacksonville and Tennessee will also have less than 9 losses. That means at least 3 teams that don't win their division will be ahead of Houston in the wildcard race, eliminating them.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI11-20.748++++99.8562.7237.2621.18
JAC9-40.75192.0199.9685.4051.8832.1518.11
NE10-30.70799.3899.9588.4948.1726.1713.29
LAR9-40.71773.8693.0461.3833.3317.409.21
MIN10-30.65699.2499.8891.0243.6018.988.74
PIT11-20.640++++94.9646.7819.998.67
NO9-40.69066.0694.7757.5628.0313.776.84
BAL7-60.648-79.9040.1718.598.333.68
LAC7-60.66744.3051.8629.8414.326.673.08
CAR9-40.58019.6779.1735.2212.664.761.82
KC7-60.57755.0268.4933.1612.814.761.77
SEA8-50.62826.1448.9722.929.284.011.73
ATL8-50.57114.2858.6423.608.083.031.13
TEN8-50.4567.9964.1119.755.561.510.40
DET7-60.5160.4215.105.071.390.480.16
BUF7-60.3890.6228.086.691.560.350.08
DAL7-60.543-4.841.730.520.190.07
GB7-60.4650.345.581.640.390.110.03
OAK6-70.4160.681.680.490.120.030.01
MIA6-70.331-5.861.030.200.040.01
NYJ5-80.408-0.080.020.000.000.00
CIN5-80.393-0.030.010.000.000.00
ARI6-70.322-0.010.000.000.000.00
HOU4-90.457------
TB4-90.401------
WAS5-80.390------
CHI4-90.382------
DEN4-90.321------
SF3-100.321------
NYG2-110.252------
IND3-100.251------
CLE0-130.233------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England

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