Superbowl LII Projection, Week 5, Thursday

Kansas City over Detroit

It feels weird not to have New England in my Super Bowl projection, but at just 3-2 and barely over .500 in strength, they're currently only the 7th most likely team to win the AFC. Last night's win at Tampa was not very impressive, and if not for 3 missed Field Goals may well have been a loss.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	4-0	0.574	58.38	84.47	67.67	36.67	19.63	10.68
PIT	3-1	0.569	75.09	80.81	59.63	31.81	16.73	9.02
BUF	3-1	0.552	59.45	74.12	55.40	28.41	14.34	7.48
DET	3-1	0.559	46.59	68.44	50.67	27.13	14.49	7.42
LAR	3-1	0.552	56.69	67.77	49.05	25.87	13.58	6.87
DEN	3-1	0.549	31.96	67.04	45.58	23.00	11.64	6.03
JAC	2-2	0.565	44.79	56.76	38.11	19.90	10.34	5.53
GB	3-1	0.541	38.28	60.03	42.18	21.66	11.13	5.50
PHI	3-1	0.521	54.96	64.79	44.25	21.69	10.58	5.01
ATL	3-1	0.528	36.71	58.69	41.49	20.76	10.32	4.96
CAR	3-1	0.520	30.22	50.68	34.10	16.74	8.17	3.86
HOU	2-2	0.540	33.80	46.92	29.68	14.69	7.25	3.69
SEA	2-2	0.536	28.81	40.43	25.95	13.16	6.67	3.26
NE	3-2	0.510	26.44	44.64	27.51	12.73	5.86	2.81
NO	2-2	0.532	19.08	34.80	22.31	11.22	5.63	2.73
OAK	2-2	0.526	9.38	37.16	21.73	10.36	4.98	2.47
WAS	2-2	0.504	22.12	35.30	21.27	10.04	4.73	2.16
MIN	2-2	0.507	13.36	32.68	19.68	9.38	4.48	2.06
DAL	2-2	0.494	21.84	31.83	18.52	8.56	3.95	1.77
TB	2-2	0.504	13.98	27.71	16.82	7.98	3.78	1.73
TEN	2-2	0.459	17.77	26.26	13.75	5.67	2.33	1.00
NYJ	2-2	0.463	9.95	21.81	11.49	4.78	1.99	0.86
BAL	2-2	0.450	14.35	24.77	12.25	4.94	2.00	0.84
ARI	2-2	0.463	13.62	19.57	10.42	4.52	1.96	0.82
CIN	1-3	0.492	9.83	16.07	8.47	3.78	1.69	0.78
MIA	1-2	0.421	4.17	9.20	4.34	1.63	0.61	0.24
IND	1-3	0.407	3.64	6.19	2.75	1.00	0.36	0.14
CHI	1-3	0.418	1.77	4.09	1.88	0.73	0.29	0.11
LAC	0-4	0.455	0.27	2.32	1.05	0.42	0.17	0.07
SF	0-4	0.440	0.88	1.66	0.75	0.31	0.13	0.05
NYG	0-4	0.426	1.08	1.53	0.66	0.26	0.10	0.04
CLE	0-4	0.418	0.73	1.46	0.60	0.22	0.08	0.03

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit