Superbowl LII Projection, Week 11, Final

Jacksonville over Philadelphia

Two 6-4 teams playing on Monday night didn't affect anything at the top, and Jacksonville and Philadelphia remain favorites in their conferences.

I pointed out yesterday that Cleveland is not actually eliminated, and in fact they still aren't. I was able to create a scenario that gets them in the playoffs, but I wound up forcing every single game involving at least one AFC team in order to make it happen. That's not to say every game is required to go the right way, but I'd bet most of them are. I generally start searching for the scenario by making a duplicate of my games file, forcing Cleveland to win the rest of their games, then forcing all remaining AFC-NFC matchups to be won by the NFC team. Then the teams that Cleveland can't catch, as well as those that can't catch Cleveland (at 6-10), are all forced to win the rest of their games. That step may generate more 11 loss teams, so it gets repeated as long as necessary. At that point, there usually isn't much left in the way of intuition, so it comes down to checking the numbers for each game going each way, and keeping the more favorable result before moving to the next game.

In short. Cleveland isn't going to make the playoffs, unless most of approximately 60 games all go their way.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
JAC	7-3	0.711	91.41	99.61	87.58	54.16	32.77	17.97
PHI	9-1	0.706	99.70	99.92	94.27	55.30	31.06	17.47
NE	8-2	0.648	98.11	99.72	89.70	49.22	24.45	11.66
NO	8-2	0.677	77.37	96.86	72.23	38.08	19.48	10.32
PIT	8-2	0.638	95.10	99.74	83.57	43.20	21.16	9.86
LAR	7-3	0.694	77.50	88.60	60.36	32.28	17.33	9.50
MIN	8-2	0.645	85.54	96.78	77.73	37.98	17.72	8.75
KC	6-4	0.579	85.49	91.31	54.68	22.72	9.64	3.91
BAL	5-5	0.598	4.83	68.19	33.93	14.77	6.65	2.83
CAR	7-3	0.576	17.95	72.07	34.37	13.57	5.46	2.31
DET	6-4	0.567	13.80	51.28	22.10	8.40	3.33	1.38
SEA	6-4	0.588	22.42	40.34	18.57	7.53	3.15	1.37
ATL	6-4	0.544	4.61	33.88	14.05	5.03	1.89	0.74
LAC	4-6	0.562	10.75	24.70	11.57	4.59	1.88	0.73
TEN	6-4	0.440	7.94	56.31	19.18	5.60	1.68	0.48
HOU	4-6	0.509	0.65	13.58	5.25	1.86	0.68	0.23
BUF	5-5	0.417	1.78	25.93	8.16	2.20	0.62	0.16
DAL	5-5	0.500	0.30	8.58	2.88	0.92	0.31	0.11
GB	5-5	0.445	0.66	6.97	2.08	0.56	0.16	0.05
NYJ	4-6	0.454	0.03	4.74	1.59	0.48	0.15	0.04
OAK	4-6	0.414	3.10	6.60	2.20	0.59	0.16	0.04
CIN	4-6	0.426	0.06	4.65	1.43	0.40	0.12	0.03
WAS	4-6	0.449	0.00	2.68	0.78	0.21	0.06	0.02
TB	4-6	0.447	0.06	1.84	0.54	0.14	0.04	0.01
DEN	3-7	0.352	0.66	1.59	0.44	0.10	0.02	0.00
MIA	4-6	0.308	0.08	2.68	0.57	0.11	0.02	0.00
IND	3-7	0.318	0.01	0.65	0.14	0.03	0.01	0.00
ARI	4-6	0.345	0.08	0.19	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
CHI	3-7	0.394	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	1-9	0.333	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-8	0.326	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-
CLE	0-10	0.291	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia