I wasn't expecting my Superbowl favorite to change this week, but I see now why it did. Jacksonville had one of the tougher games, so had a much lower shot of making the AFC Championship than New England did. Now that they're both in, I'm favoring Jacksonville just slightly. However, if I were to consider home field advantage, and gave home teams just a 50.9% average generically, the projection would flip to New England. Home teams were .566 this year, so consider that projection to have a very wide confidence interval. All 4 teams are actually pretty evenly matched, and as you can see they're all pretty close to an even 1 in 4 chance of winning it all.
So who am I rooting for now?
Jacksonville at New England:
Jacksonville, mostly because I'll look like a genius if my pick comes through.
Minnesota at Philadelphia:
This is a tough one. Most years I'd probably root for the Eagles. I even have an Eagles hat for some reason. But, I think it'd be cool to see the first Superbowl team to play in their own stadium. Just for the curiosity of it, I'll root for Minnesota.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAC | 10-6 | 0.787 | ++ | ++ | ++ | ++ | 50.90 | 26.03 |
| PHI | 13-3 | 0.785 | ++ | ++ | ++ | ++ | 51.58 | 25.84 |
| NE | 13-3 | 0.781 | ++ | ++ | ++ | ++ | 49.10 | 24.65 |
| MIN | 13-3 | 0.774 | ++ | ++ | ++ | ++ | 48.42 | 23.49 |
| LAR | 11-5 | 0.751 | ++ | ++ | - | - | - | - |
| NO | 11-5 | 0.719 | ++ | ++ | ++ | - | - | - |
| LAC | 9-7 | 0.694 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| PIT | 13-3 | 0.693 | ++ | ++ | ++ | - | - | - |
| BAL | 9-7 | 0.686 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| KC | 10-6 | 0.645 | ++ | ++ | - | - | - | - |
| ATL | 10-6 | 0.583 | - | ++ | ++ | - | - | - |
| CAR | 11-5 | 0.576 | - | ++ | - | - | - | - |
| SEA | 9-7 | 0.571 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DET | 9-7 | 0.564 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DAL | 9-7 | 0.547 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TEN | 9-7 | 0.453 | - | ++ | ++ | - | - | - |
| WAS | 7-9 | 0.408 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TB | 5-11 | 0.404 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SF | 6-10 | 0.394 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| BUF | 9-7 | 0.375 | - | ++ | - | - | - | - |
| GB | 7-9 | 0.369 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CIN | 7-9 | 0.367 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CHI | 5-11 | 0.362 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ARI | 8-8 | 0.355 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| OAK | 6-10 | 0.347 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NYJ | 5-11 | 0.324 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HOU | 4-12 | 0.320 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DEN | 5-11 | 0.305 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| MIA | 6-10 | 0.271 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| IND | 4-12 | 0.220 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NYG | 3-13 | 0.207 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CLE | 0-16 | 0.160 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia and New England (Divisional Saturday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage: Philadelphia (Week 16, Final)
First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 16, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 17, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Wildcard Saturday] Philadelphia over New England
[Wildcard Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Divisional Saturday] Philadelphia over New England
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