2017-12-17

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 15, Saturday

Jacksonville over Philadelphia

I used to really look forward to this time of year, when the NFL expanded to Saturdays. Now I'm not nearly as excited about it. I think that changed for 2 reasons. First, I started following college football more, so now I've got football available every Saturday. Second, Thursday games are now every week, eliminating the 5 off days we used to have between Monday night and Sunday morning.

They managed to schedule 3 teams still alive in the playoff race, which is about as good as random chance since 9 teams were out before yesterday. I don't know that they expected Kansas City vs Los Angeles to be a hugely important game in determining the winner of the AFC West, though. Combined, the teams had a 99.3% chance of winning the division, with Kansas City favored 54.6% to 44.7%, even though I had LA favored to win yesterday's game. Now that Kansas City has won, their chances have risen to 96.8%.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI11-20.748++++99.8562.8737.3621.28
JAC9-40.75192.0199.9685.7052.1932.4618.29
NE10-30.70799.3899.9588.6448.4626.4113.42
LAR9-40.71773.8691.8260.6532.9617.209.12
MIN10-30.65699.0599.8491.3443.7819.088.81
PIT11-20.640++++95.0247.0920.188.76
NO9-40.69066.0594.4557.4527.9913.756.86
BAL7-60.647-84.9642.7119.788.893.93
KC8-60.61096.8496.8452.6121.968.843.56
CAR9-40.58019.6778.3134.8912.554.721.82
SEA8-50.62826.1445.5921.468.723.771.63
ATL8-50.57114.2856.7622.917.872.951.11
LAC7-70.6323.0313.636.162.771.210.51
TEN8-50.4567.9967.0220.505.771.570.42
DET8-60.5350.6524.198.542.480.900.31
BUF7-60.3890.6230.507.251.690.380.08
DAL7-60.543-4.021.430.430.160.06
GB7-60.4650.305.031.480.350.100.03
OAK6-70.4160.131.690.420.110.030.01
MIA6-70.331-5.270.950.180.030.01
NYJ5-80.408-0.130.030.010.000.00
CIN5-80.393-0.060.010.000.000.00
ARI6-70.322-0.000.000.000.000.00
HOU4-90.457------
TB4-90.401------
WAS5-80.390------
CHI4-100.357------
DEN5-90.342------
SF3-100.321------
NYG2-110.252------
CLE0-130.233------
IND3-110.228------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia

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