Tenets of Wilson: 2016-11

2016-11-29

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 12, Final

New England over Dallas

Philadelphia was the third strongest team before their loss last night, despite being 5-5 on the season. Green Bay was 23rd, but they pulled off the win on the road. Philadelphia would now need to win out, have Dallas lose out, and get some losses from the other two teams in the division, as well as getting some tiebreakers to fall correctly, in order to win their division. Buffalo and Philadelphia are teams that have really outplayed their records, which basically means they've been unlucky, or have won some games by a large margin while losing their games by small margins.

In Week 13 there are two final byes, Cleveland and Tennessee, and everyone will have played 12 games. We'll probably see several more eliminations as teams run out of room to catch the leaders, and perhaps a playoff clinch or two.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-2	0.683	94.73	99.05	97.29	62.09	38.91	22.45
DAL	10-1	0.682	92.65	99.88	96.84	62.26	38.55	22.18
DEN	7-4	0.597	6.86	46.66	29.93	14.48	7.11	3.45
PIT	6-5	0.591	55.03	59.77	33.31	16.22	7.77	3.72
SEA	7-3-1	0.591	96.94	97.63	79.23	41.81	19.32	9.24
PHI	5-6	0.589	0.01	9.22	4.91	2.11	1.06	0.51
BUF	6-5	0.588	0.25	26.03	15.02	6.74	3.31	1.57
ATL	7-4	0.586	81.74	87.67	59.89	29.93	13.84	6.55
KC	8-3	0.583	37.23	82.92	62.55	31.51	14.47	6.81
MIN	6-5	0.565	23.78	44.91	24.52	10.68	4.89	2.21
OAK	9-2	0.556	55.89	92.06	75.88	36.39	15.51	6.89
NO	5-6	0.543	8.81	15.05	7.63	3.17	1.39	0.60
BAL	6-5	0.542	44.13	46.75	22.89	9.83	4.28	1.84
NYG	8-3	0.542	7.10	78.43	41.86	16.91	7.49	3.22
SD	5-6	0.537	0.02	3.28	1.65	0.64	0.29	0.12
ARI	4-6-1	0.537	3.00	6.06	2.95	1.19	0.52	0.22
WAS	6-4-1	0.530	0.24	51.52	24.47	9.22	4.06	1.70
TEN	6-6	0.522	25.57	27.20	12.49	5.05	2.07	0.85
DET	7-4	0.519	65.89	73.02	41.74	17.23	6.84	2.79
MIA	7-4	0.519	5.02	40.53	22.42	8.91	3.74	1.53
CAR	4-7	0.491	0.49	1.16	0.51	0.18	0.07	0.03
GB	5-6	0.473	10.32	13.15	5.73	1.97	0.73	0.26
TB	6-5	0.470	8.96	22.15	9.68	3.33	1.24	0.45
IND	5-6	0.444	20.84	21.12	7.93	2.62	0.88	0.30
CIN	3-7-1	0.429	0.84	0.84	0.30	0.10	0.03	0.01
HOU	6-5	0.402	53.56	53.75	18.34	5.42	1.62	0.49
NYJ	3-8	0.353	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	2-9	0.349	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
LA	4-7	0.343	0.06	0.14	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
CHI	2-9	0.318	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	1-10	0.311	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-12	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas

2016-11-28

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 12, Sunday

New England over Dallas

New England took over the lead in strength, 0.68344 to 0.68251, so would be just barely favored against Dallas. Dallas lost just a little bit of their playoff odds, because the Giants keep winning and are still only 2 games back in the NFC East.

Denver, despite being the 4th best team, has a decent shot of missing the playoffs the year after a Superbowl win. They're just 47% likely to make the playoffs, and 7% to win the division, in third place and 2 games behind Oakland, and 1 behind Kansas City, who they lost to last night as time expired in overtime.

San Francisco is now officially eliminated, so I can stop trying to run enough simulations to get them to advance. The Jets are also eliminated from their division, which doesn't take any sort of tiebreakers to determine; they've got 8 losses and New England has 9 wins, so they can't be caught.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-2	0.683	94.73	99.05	97.30	62.10	38.92	22.41
DAL	10-1	0.683	92.48	99.84	96.71	61.52	38.02	21.88
PHI	5-5	0.616	0.19	25.50	14.32	6.61	3.49	1.76
DEN	7-4	0.597	6.86	46.72	29.97	14.50	7.12	3.45
PIT	6-5	0.591	55.66	60.25	33.56	16.34	7.82	3.73
SEA	7-3-1	0.591	97.05	97.62	79.12	41.65	19.16	9.17
BUF	6-5	0.588	0.25	26.07	15.04	6.75	3.31	1.57
ATL	7-4	0.586	81.67	86.62	58.49	29.18	13.44	6.36
KC	8-3	0.583	37.22	82.95	62.57	31.52	14.47	6.79
MIN	6-5	0.565	24.77	44.10	23.97	10.47	4.77	2.16
OAK	9-2	0.556	55.90	92.07	75.89	36.39	15.51	6.87
NO	5-6	0.543	8.81	14.06	7.09	2.96	1.29	0.55
BAL	6-5	0.542	43.53	46.08	22.53	9.67	4.21	1.81
NYG	8-3	0.542	7.08	76.41	40.72	16.43	7.24	3.11
SD	5-6	0.537	0.02	3.29	1.66	0.64	0.29	0.12
ARI	4-6-1	0.537	2.89	5.35	2.60	1.06	0.46	0.20
WAS	6-4-1	0.530	0.24	46.79	22.20	8.37	3.67	1.54
TEN	6-6	0.522	25.23	26.90	12.36	5.00	2.05	0.84
DET	7-4	0.519	70.58	76.13	42.96	17.73	7.00	2.86
MIA	7-4	0.519	5.02	40.55	22.44	8.92	3.74	1.52
CAR	4-7	0.491	0.49	1.06	0.46	0.16	0.06	0.02
TB	6-5	0.470	9.03	20.81	9.06	3.13	1.15	0.42
GB	4-6	0.448	4.64	5.58	2.27	0.73	0.25	0.09
IND	5-6	0.444	20.63	20.92	7.85	2.59	0.87	0.30
CIN	3-7-1	0.429	0.81	0.81	0.29	0.09	0.03	0.01
HOU	6-5	0.402	54.11	54.30	18.54	5.48	1.64	0.49
NYJ	3-8	0.353	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	2-9	0.349	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
LA	4-7	0.343	0.06	0.12	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
CHI	2-9	0.318	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	1-10	0.311	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-12	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-

2016-11-27

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

Alabama and Clemson stayed at the top after Rivalry weekend, which leads us to Conference Championship weekend. With a defeat of a very highly ranked Michigan team, Ohio State overtook undefeated Western Michigan for the #3 spot. I feel like this year really helps justify my ranking system, because it boosts an undefeated non-power-conference team up high, but not automatically #1 just for being 12-0, because the ranking of a team's opponents comes into play. I'd really like to see them beat Ohio next week to see how the committee justifies keeping an undefeated team out of the playoff. I realize they probably aren't the top team, but if winning every game isn't enough to get a shot at the title, then plenty of teams have no chance at the beginning of the season, which is simply dumb. I realize I may have to eat some crow on that statement, since they could fall out of my top 5, since Alabama, Clemson, and Washington will all face tougher teams than Western Michigan, and could push them to #5 or below.

Missouri beat Arkansas to raise themselves up to #90, and finish the season 4-8, certainly left out of the bowl season. Arkansas should still make a lowest-tier bowl at 7-5.

Fresno State stayed #128, and will likely stay there through the playoff as no teams down that low have any more games. It might be possible for the wins and losses of FCS opponents to shift teams a bit, but most likely we've crowned our anti-champion already.

1	Alabama	12-0
2	Clemson	11-1
3	Ohio State	11-1
4	Western Michigan	12-0
5	Washington	11-1
6	Michigan	10-2
7	Wisconsin	10-2
8	Penn State	10-2
9	Colorado	10-2
10	Boise State	10-2
11	South Florida	10-2
12	Florida State	9-3
13	Navy	9-2
14	West Virginia	9-2
15	USC	9-3
16	Oklahoma	9-2
17	Oklahoma State	9-2
18	Virginia Tech	9-3
19	Nebraska	9-3
20	Stanford	9-3
21	Tulsa	9-3
22	Louisville	9-3
23	Houston	9-3
24	Tennessee	8-4
25	Toledo	9-3
26	Temple	9-3
27	North Carolina	8-4
28	Appalachian State	9-3
29	Air Force	9-3
30	Pittsburgh	8-4
31	Auburn	8-4
32	Western Kentucky	9-3
33	Florida	8-3
34	Washington State	8-4
35	Georgia Tech	8-4
36	Troy	9-2
37	Texas A&M	8-4
38	San Diego State	9-3
39	Iowa	8-4
40	Wyoming	8-4
41	Miami	8-4
42	Old Dominion	9-3
43	Utah	8-4
44	LSU	7-4
45	Memphis	8-4
46	Minnesota	8-4
47	BYU	8-4
48	Georgia	7-5
49	New Mexico	8-4
50	Arkansas	7-5
51	Louisiana Tech	8-4
52	Colorado State	7-5
53	Ohio	8-4
54	Middle Tennessee	8-4
55	Kentucky	7-5
56	Kansas State	7-4
57	Idaho	7-4
58	Vanderbilt	6-6
59	Eastern Michigan	7-5
60	NC State	6-6
61	Northwestern	6-6
62	TCU	6-5
63	South Carolina	6-6
64	Boston College	6-6
65	UCF	6-6
66	Ole Miss	5-7
67	Arkansas State	6-5
68	Wake Forest	6-6
69	Indiana	6-6
70	Maryland	6-6
71	Texas San Antonio	6-6
72	Central Michigan	6-6
73	Baylor	6-5
74	Mississippi State	5-7
75	SMU	5-7
76	Hawai'i	6-7
77	Miami (OH)	6-6
78	Southern Mississippi	6-6
79	California	5-7
80	Arizona State	5-7
81	Army	6-5
82	Northern Illinois	5-7
83	Texas Tech	5-7
84	Louisiana Lafayette	5-6
85	Texas	5-7
86	South Alabama	5-6
87	Syracuse	4-8
88	North Texas	5-7
89	Akron	5-7
90	Missouri	4-8
91	Duke	4-8
92	UCLA	4-8
93	Oregon	4-8
94	Oregon State	4-8
95	Tulane	4-8
96	Cincinnati	4-8
97	Notre Dame	4-8
98	Louisiana Monroe	4-7
99	Nevada	5-7
100	Bowling Green	4-8
101	Georgia Southern	4-7
102	San Jose State	4-8
103	Arizona	3-9
104	UNLV	4-8
105	Utah State	3-9
106	Charlotte	4-8
107	Florida Intl	4-8
108	Ball State	4-8
109	Illinois	3-9
110	East Carolina	3-9
111	New Mexico State	3-8
112	Michigan State	3-9
113	UTEP	4-8
114	Iowa State	3-9
115	Purdue	3-9
116	Georgia State	3-8
117	Kent State	3-9
118	Connecticut	3-9
119	Rice	3-9
120	Marshall	3-9
121	Virginia	2-10
122	Rutgers	2-10
123	Florida Atlantic	3-9
124	Massachusetts	2-10
125	Kansas	2-10
126	Texas State	2-9
127	Buffalo	2-10
128	Fresno State	1-11

2016 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas
Week 3 Texas A&M
Week 4 Texas A&M
Week 5 Tennessee
Week 6 Texas A&M
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Alabama
Week 10 Alabama
Week 11 Alabama
Week 12 Alabama

2016-11-25

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 12, Thursday

Dallas over New England

We had triple the chances of a meaningful Thursday game this week, with 3 Thanksgiving games played. We didn't get any huge changes, but Dallas solidified their position and cracked the three nines mark and is now 99.9% likely to make the playoffs. Although looking at my numbers with more decimal places, that's slightly rounded up. We can keep it our little secret. I really find myself rooting for Dallas to do well, especially with the outstanding play of their rookie QB. Pittsburgh was the other big winner on the day,, ,moving up to 68% likely to make the playoffs and the 6th strongest team. Detroit also won a game with possible tiebreaker implications to go up 1 game on Minnesota, which flipped the division in their favor.

I really hope San Francisco loses this week so I can stop mentioning the caveat that they are not actually eliminated, I just never got them to the playoffs in 2.1 billion weighted simulations this week. Chicago, Jacksonville, and the Jets may wind up with the faux elimination treatment after Sunday.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DAL	10-1	0.682	94.99	99.90	97.60	62.70	38.60	22.49
NE	8-2	0.671	93.97	98.40	96.21	60.33	36.94	20.69
PHI	5-5	0.616	0.23	28.70	16.57	7.64	4.01	2.05
SEA	7-2-1	0.606	95.38	97.57	88.59	49.84	23.65	11.85
DEN	7-3	0.606	23.63	70.86	51.52	26.89	13.46	6.61
PIT	6-5	0.591	64.27	68.39	38.85	19.01	9.31	4.43
ARI	4-5-1	0.579	4.47	16.15	9.31	4.18	1.99	0.94
KC	7-3	0.579	28.98	71.03	51.26	25.62	11.93	5.53
BUF	5-5	0.575	0.65	22.84	13.11	5.89	2.83	1.30
MIN	6-5	0.565	23.04	46.50	25.59	11.01	5.03	2.31
ATL	6-4	0.557	76.88	79.22	45.03	19.96	8.71	3.94
OAK	8-2	0.552	47.35	88.01	69.12	32.77	14.20	6.22
WAS	6-4-1	0.530	0.23	47.31	23.23	8.76	3.81	1.62
BAL	5-5	0.529	32.49	35.15	17.03	7.17	3.10	1.29
SD	4-6	0.523	0.03	2.91	1.44	0.56	0.24	0.10
DET	7-4	0.519	72.69	79.08	43.55	17.74	7.03	2.92
TEN	5-6	0.511	13.67	16.49	7.59	3.02	1.23	0.49
NYG	7-3	0.509	4.55	67.25	33.79	12.44	5.06	2.05
MIA	6-4	0.504	5.37	35.06	19.31	7.63	3.12	1.22
NO	4-6	0.498	8.76	10.95	5.02	1.84	0.72	0.28
CAR	4-6	0.496	3.81	5.47	2.48	0.89	0.35	0.14
TB	5-5	0.455	10.56	15.42	6.55	2.17	0.76	0.27
GB	4-6	0.448	4.23	5.47	2.30	0.73	0.25	0.09
IND	5-6	0.445	17.14	17.85	6.80	2.27	0.78	0.26
CIN	3-6-1	0.441	3.23	3.30	1.24	0.42	0.15	0.05
HOU	6-4	0.421	69.07	69.51	26.45	8.42	2.70	0.85
LA	4-6	0.398	0.15	0.98	0.37	0.10	0.03	0.01
NYJ	3-7	0.365	0.01	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00
JAC	2-8	0.362	0.13	0.13	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
CHI	2-8	0.328	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	1-9	0.323	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-11	0.262	-	-	-	-	-	-

2016-11-24

Bowl Pick 'Em Contest Winnings, Part XXIV

College football ~~will be here again before we know it~~ IS HERE, so I've got to get my prize from last season's Bowl Pick 'Em contest at Cards on Cards posted! My prize for a second place tie was a very generously sized box of cards, so I felt a bit overwhelmed even sorting through them. I finally sorted them out by player, and, as usual, I'll plan to post them all eventually, but I might quit halfway through, we'll see.

Part I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII XVIII XIX XX XXI XXII XXIII

Today I'm thankful for prizes, Bernard Gilkey, and Gregg Jefferies. Also family and all that usual stuff too.

1991 Topps Stadium Club #402 Bernard Gilkey
1994 Score #420 Bernard Gilkey
1995 Pinnacle #62 Bernard Gilkey
1996 Donruss #49 Bernard Gilkey
1994 Donruss #9 Gregg Jefferies
1994 Leaf #56 Gregg Jefferies
1994 Studio #51 Gregg Jefferies
1994 Topps - Black Gold #35 Gregg Jefferies
1995 Upper Deck - Trade Exchange #TC5 Gregg Jefferies

I've apparently never posted a 1994 Studio card before, which I find hard to believe, but there it is.

Gilkey was part of the Cardinals when I first started watching baseball. I should really put together some kind of project with members of that team. He's probably better known for his time with the Mets, both due to performance, and being in the biggest market.

1994 Upper Deck
#265 Gregg Jefferies
#406 Bernard Gilkey

I always associate Gregg Jefferies with an episode of Who's the Boss, where Tony was watching highlights from his playing career with the St. Louis Cardinals. I believe it was a game against the Mets, and they didn't show the video, just very fake audio, and Gregg was mentioned as the first basemen.

2016-11-22

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 11, Final

Dallas over New England

Oakland beat Houston in Mexico City to move up a few spots in the strength ranking, and increase their playoff chances by over 9 percentage points at 8-2. Houston took a similar downward hit, falling from 6-3 to 6-4. And for the record, San Francisco still isn't really eliminated, but didn't make it in any of my 1.5 billion simulations today.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DAL	9-1	0.675	89.05	99.29	94.57	59.78	36.19	20.89
NE	8-2	0.671	93.94	98.40	96.28	60.89	37.63	21.28
PHI	5-5	0.616	0.64	25.60	14.74	6.98	3.66	1.88
SEA	7-2-1	0.606	95.43	97.39	87.85	48.73	23.61	11.91
DEN	7-3	0.606	24.03	70.99	52.36	27.59	13.92	6.90
ARI	4-5-1	0.580	4.42	14.93	8.50	3.88	1.86	0.89
KC	7-3	0.579	29.40	71.17	52.31	26.57	12.43	5.82
BUF	5-5	0.575	0.70	23.66	13.90	6.26	3.02	1.40
MIN	6-4	0.570	54.81	67.63	40.86	18.73	8.59	4.02
ATL	6-4	0.557	76.83	78.81	44.89	19.99	8.84	4.02
OAK	8-2	0.552	46.54	87.32	68.69	32.97	14.40	6.37
PIT	5-5	0.547	49.62	52.39	26.67	11.79	5.28	2.31
WAS	6-3-1	0.540	2.87	58.80	30.28	12.21	5.41	2.37
BAL	5-5	0.529	44.29	45.80	22.17	9.32	4.05	1.70
SD	4-6	0.523	0.04	2.93	1.52	0.59	0.26	0.11
DET	6-4	0.512	41.29	54.03	28.18	11.21	4.49	1.85
TEN	5-6	0.511	10.57	13.78	6.52	2.61	1.08	0.43
NYG	7-3	0.509	7.44	67.13	34.38	12.99	5.31	2.17
MIA	6-4	0.504	5.36	34.62	19.69	7.84	3.23	1.28
NO	4-6	0.498	8.78	10.59	4.81	1.79	0.70	0.28
CAR	4-6	0.496	3.78	5.24	2.35	0.86	0.34	0.13
IND	5-5	0.483	28.22	30.62	13.52	5.07	1.93	0.73
TB	5-5	0.455	10.61	14.76	6.23	2.10	0.74	0.27
GB	4-6	0.448	3.87	5.01	2.06	0.67	0.23	0.08
CIN	3-6-1	0.441	6.09	6.13	2.30	0.77	0.27	0.09
HOU	6-4	0.421	61.13	62.05	24.02	7.72	2.50	0.80
LA	4-6	0.397	0.15	0.76	0.29	0.08	0.03	0.01
NYJ	3-7	0.364	0.01	0.05	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00
JAC	2-8	0.362	0.09	0.09	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
CHI	2-8	0.328	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	1-9	0.323	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-11	0.262	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England

2016-11-21

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 11, Sunday

Dallas over New England

I'm a little surprised Dallas didn't crack the 99.9% playoff barrier yet. A strong division is holding them back a little bit, only 89% likely to win the NFC East. New England has the reverse situation, where they lost this week, but are still 2 games ahead of Miami, 3 games ahead of Buffalo, and 5 games ahead of New York.

Cleveland has been officially eliminated, but now another team is messing with my numbers. San Francisco can't win their division, but aren't completely out of the playoff hunt just yet. I generally test a theory like this by running a set of dummy simulations, forcing the team in question to win all their games, having any teams that have clinched a higher position win out (Dallas and Seattle with 9 and 7.5 wins in this case), and having all interconference games won by the opposite conference team. Even after forcing all those situations for San Francisco, I showed them with a very small chance of making the playoffs. Since I ran 1 billion simulations, I'll say they're somewhere around 1 in a billion, give or take a few orders of magnitude.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DAL	9-1	0.675	89.05	99.29	94.57	59.78	36.19	20.94
NE	8-2	0.671	93.95	98.55	96.13	60.92	37.89	21.42
PHI	5-5	0.616	0.64	25.60	14.74	6.98	3.66	1.89
SEA	7-2-1	0.606	95.43	97.39	87.85	48.73	23.61	11.95
DEN	7-3	0.606	28.70	72.29	54.22	29.03	14.67	7.28
ARI	4-5-1	0.580	4.42	14.92	8.50	3.88	1.86	0.89
KC	7-3	0.579	34.16	72.38	53.10	27.37	12.83	6.01
BUF	5-5	0.575	0.70	25.07	14.55	6.57	3.20	1.49
MIN	6-4	0.570	54.84	67.66	40.88	18.74	8.59	4.03
ATL	6-4	0.557	76.77	78.74	44.84	19.98	8.84	4.04
PIT	5-5	0.547	49.67	52.66	27.21	12.21	5.48	2.40
WAS	6-3-1	0.540	2.87	58.80	30.28	12.21	5.41	2.38
OAK	7-2	0.539	37.06	78.26	57.47	26.71	11.40	4.90
BAL	5-5	0.529	44.34	45.97	22.52	9.61	4.18	1.76
SD	4-6	0.523	0.08	3.26	1.70	0.66	0.29	0.12
DET	6-4	0.512	41.33	54.07	28.21	11.22	4.49	1.86
TEN	5-6	0.511	7.51	11.42	5.54	2.22	0.93	0.37
NYG	7-3	0.509	7.44	67.14	34.39	12.99	5.31	2.18
MIA	6-4	0.504	5.34	35.71	19.91	7.91	3.29	1.30
NO	4-6	0.498	8.77	10.58	4.80	1.79	0.70	0.28
CAR	4-6	0.496	3.83	5.32	2.39	0.87	0.34	0.14
IND	5-5	0.483	21.80	26.13	11.85	4.45	1.71	0.64
TB	5-5	0.455	10.63	14.77	6.23	2.10	0.74	0.27
GB	4-6	0.448	3.80	4.92	2.02	0.66	0.23	0.08
CIN	3-6-1	0.441	5.99	6.03	2.29	0.78	0.27	0.09
HOU	6-3	0.436	70.63	72.15	33.47	11.54	3.85	1.28
LA	4-6	0.397	0.15	0.76	0.29	0.08	0.03	0.01
NYJ	3-7	0.364	0.01	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00
JAC	2-8	0.362	0.06	0.06	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
CHI	2-8	0.328	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	1-9	0.323	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-11	0.262	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England

2016-11-20

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 12

At the top of my rankings, #2 and #3 changed positions, but everything else was pretty stable this week. Louisville was the top team to suffer a loss, and they fellf from #7 to #15. Even though I knocked them down a spot for losing to the second worst team - Buffalo - I think the College Football Playoff voters should raise them up a bit, as they were all the way down at #21 again last week. Obviously they could raise them all the way to #5 and it would be pretty meaningless since there is no consolation prize for just missing the playoff, but it seems the voters don't like wild swings, so I'd say no team below #8 leading into conference championship weekend has any chance at being chosen.

Missouri lost again, but to a strong Tennessee team, so they actually moved up 3 positions to #102.

Fresno State lost again and remains #128, with 1 game to go.

1	Alabama	11-0
2	Clemson	10-1
3	Western Michigan	11-0
4	Ohio State	10-1
5	Michigan	10-1
6	Boise State	10-1
7	Washington	10-1
8	Penn State	9-2
9	Wisconsin	9-2
10	Colorado	9-2
11	Nebraska	9-2
12	Oklahoma	9-2
13	South Florida	9-2
14	Oklahoma State	9-2
15	Louisville	9-2
16	Houston	9-2
17	Florida State	8-3
18	Tennessee	8-3
19	North Carolina	8-3
20	Toledo	9-2
21	Auburn	8-3
22	Navy	8-2
23	Texas A&M	8-3
24	USC	8-3
25	Florida	8-2
26	West Virginia	8-2
27	Virginia Tech	8-3
28	Washington State	8-3
29	San Diego State	9-2
30	Stanford	8-3
31	Tulsa	8-3
32	Wyoming	8-3
33	Temple	8-3
34	Utah	8-3
35	Minnesota	8-3
36	Appalachian State	8-3
37	Western Kentucky	8-3
38	Troy	8-2
39	Pittsburgh	7-4
40	Arkansas	7-4
41	Georgia	7-4
42	Air Force	8-3
43	Georgia Tech	7-4
44	Louisiana Tech	8-3
45	Iowa	7-4
46	Miami	7-4
47	Old Dominion	8-3
48	LSU	6-4
49	BYU	7-4
50	Memphis	7-4
51	New Mexico	7-4
52	Ohio	7-4
53	Middle Tennessee	7-4
54	Kansas State	6-4
55	Colorado State	6-5
56	Arkansas State	6-4
57	Ole Miss	5-6
58	Idaho	6-4
59	Wake Forest	6-5
60	Kentucky	6-5
61	UCF	6-5
62	South Carolina	6-5
63	Baylor	6-4
64	Central Michigan	6-5
65	Eastern Michigan	6-5
66	Vanderbilt	5-6
67	Northwestern	5-6
68	TCU	5-5
69	Arizona State	5-6
70	SMU	5-6
71	NC State	5-6
72	Maryland	5-6
73	Indiana	5-6
74	Boston College	5-6
75	Army	6-5
76	South Alabama	5-5
77	North Texas	5-6
78	Texas	5-6
79	Texas San Antonio	5-6
80	Mississippi State	4-7
81	Miami (OH)	5-6
82	Oregon	4-7
83	Hawai'i	5-7
84	California	4-7
85	Akron	5-6
86	UCLA	4-7
87	Syracuse	4-7
88	Duke	4-7
89	Southern Mississippi	5-6
90	Northern Illinois	4-7
91	Cincinnati	4-7
92	Texas Tech	4-7
93	Louisiana Monroe	4-7
94	Notre Dame	4-7
95	Louisiana Lafayette	4-6
96	UNLV	4-7
97	Georgia Southern	4-7
98	Oregon State	3-8
99	Utah State	3-8
100	Tulane	3-8
101	Illinois	3-8
102	Missouri	3-8
103	Ball State	4-7
104	Charlotte	4-7
105	Bowling Green	3-8
106	Nevada	4-7
107	Florida Intl	4-7
108	East Carolina	3-8
109	Kent State	3-8
110	Connecticut	3-8
111	Purdue	3-8
112	San Jose State	3-8
113	Michigan State	3-8
114	New Mexico State	3-7
115	Iowa State	3-8
116	Georgia State	3-8
117	Arizona	2-9
118	Rice	3-8
119	Marshall	3-8
120	Virginia	2-9
121	Rutgers	2-9
122	Florida Atlantic	3-8
123	UTEP	3-8
124	Massachusetts	2-9
125	Kansas	2-9
126	Texas State	2-8
127	Buffalo	2-9
128	Fresno State	1-10

2016 History and #1s

2016-11-18

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Dallas over New England

I heard an interesting stat on Thursday, I believe on the Pardon the Interruption podcast, that no team that started 3-7 (or worse I assume) has ever made the playoffs. This was in reference to Carolina playing and having a chance to fall to that level last night, just one season after making the Superbowl. They won, so I guess they won't be making history if they do make the playoffs. I still have them at just a 6.6% chance. 3-7 does seem to be a pretty good cutoff though, as I show the 4 win teams with a 3.2% to 33% of a playoff spot, while the 3-7 or worse teams range from effectively 0 to 0.36%.

This billion simulations managed to get Cleveland to the Superbowl at least once, but they never won it. At the other extreme, they stay at 13.68% likely to finish 0-16.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DAL	8-1	0.656	85.68	98.52	92.73	56.48	33.76	19.26
NE	7-2	0.649	93.38	97.42	93.44	57.09	33.97	18.85
PHI	5-4	0.634	3.25	47.99	29.75	15.51	8.68	4.75
DEN	7-3	0.606	24.16	74.14	53.46	28.65	14.93	7.62
ARI	4-4-1	0.595	18.42	35.98	23.88	12.23	6.08	3.07
SEA	6-2-1	0.582	80.25	88.47	74.33	39.24	18.62	9.18
KC	7-2	0.582	44.68	83.20	64.29	33.82	16.44	7.98
BUF	4-5	0.564	1.10	18.12	10.31	4.72	2.28	1.07
MIN	5-4	0.559	48.45	56.16	33.64	15.71	7.20	3.38
ATL	6-4	0.557	78.97	80.68	49.15	23.25	10.54	4.93
BAL	5-4	0.554	60.90	62.43	33.91	15.61	7.34	3.36
OAK	7-2	0.540	31.11	80.31	56.39	26.05	11.52	5.11
TEN	5-5	0.524	20.98	27.89	14.34	6.11	2.66	1.14
SD	4-6	0.523	0.05	3.77	1.94	0.79	0.35	0.15
PIT	4-5	0.516	29.16	32.98	15.77	6.63	2.87	1.20
WAS	5-3-1	0.506	2.52	39.07	19.36	7.56	3.19	1.33
NO	4-6	0.498	9.37	11.32	5.28	2.11	0.85	0.35
DET	5-4	0.498	37.05	45.68	24.39	9.89	3.93	1.61
CAR	4-6	0.496	4.68	6.57	3.00	1.17	0.48	0.19
MIA	5-4	0.496	5.48	25.68	14.30	5.83	2.42	0.97
NYG	6-3	0.495	8.55	58.93	30.81	11.83	4.81	1.96
GB	4-5	0.480	14.16	17.48	8.04	3.05	1.18	0.46
IND	4-5	0.471	11.41	14.10	6.17	2.28	0.88	0.33
TB	4-5	0.452	6.99	9.56	4.11	1.47	0.53	0.20
CIN	3-5-1	0.451	9.94	10.16	4.00	1.42	0.53	0.19
HOU	6-3	0.436	67.43	69.51	31.59	10.95	3.79	1.31
LA	4-5	0.411	1.34	3.22	1.42	0.47	0.15	0.05
JAC	2-7	0.375	0.19	0.20	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00
NYJ	3-7	0.364	0.03	0.09	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
SF	1-8	0.344	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CHI	2-7	0.342	0.33	0.36	0.11	0.03	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-10	0.290	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England

2016-11-17

A Celebration Contest at Sport Card Collectors

This pretty awesome Yadier Molina card is being given away at Sport Card Collectors in celebration of 600,000 views.

2016 Prime Cuts - Timeline Trios
#3 Yadier Molina #10/99

And if enough people enter, a bonus prize will be given out.

2016 Prime Cuts
#87 Carlos Gonzalez #21/99

Go check out the contest to enter.

2016-11-15

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 10, Final

Dallas over New England

Cincinnati lost to the Giants, but neither team is near the top of the league, so the projection remains the same. The strong AFC teams lost a few tenths of a percent each, which all flowed to Baltimore and Pittsburgh. With Cincinnati sustaining a loss, the chances of a stronger NFC North winner means everyone else will face a stronger opponents on average on the way to the Superbowl.

Cleveland still has phantom eliminations for the positions of AFC winner and Superbowl champion. Maybe next week we'll get a real elimination for them.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DAL	8-1	0.656	85.67	98.48	92.68	56.48	33.79	19.27
NE	7-2	0.649	93.38	97.42	93.44	57.09	33.97	18.86
PHI	5-4	0.634	3.25	47.42	29.43	15.36	8.60	4.70
DEN	7-3	0.606	24.12	74.13	53.44	28.64	14.93	7.62
ARI	4-4-1	0.595	18.30	35.55	23.57	12.08	6.01	3.04
SEA	6-2-1	0.582	80.38	88.52	74.27	39.27	18.64	9.19
KC	7-2	0.582	44.62	83.19	64.27	33.81	16.43	7.98
BUF	4-5	0.564	1.10	18.11	10.30	4.72	2.28	1.07
MIN	5-4	0.559	48.51	55.81	33.31	15.56	7.14	3.35
ATL	6-4	0.557	73.97	77.00	47.24	22.34	10.14	4.74
BAL	5-4	0.554	60.90	62.43	33.90	15.61	7.35	3.37
OAK	7-2	0.540	31.21	80.39	56.47	26.09	11.54	5.12
TEN	5-5	0.524	20.98	27.89	14.34	6.11	2.66	1.14
SD	4-6	0.523	0.04	3.77	1.93	0.79	0.35	0.15
PIT	4-5	0.516	29.16	32.97	15.76	6.63	2.87	1.20
WAS	5-3-1	0.506	2.53	38.77	19.25	7.53	3.18	1.33
NO	4-5	0.503	17.50	21.49	10.62	4.33	1.76	0.73
DET	5-4	0.498	36.98	45.37	24.18	9.80	3.90	1.60
MIA	5-4	0.496	5.48	25.66	14.29	5.83	2.42	0.97
NYG	6-3	0.495	8.55	58.67	30.71	11.80	4.81	1.96
CAR	3-6	0.491	2.31	3.30	1.48	0.57	0.23	0.09
GB	4-5	0.480	14.19	17.34	7.96	3.02	1.17	0.46
IND	4-5	0.471	11.41	14.10	6.17	2.28	0.88	0.33
TB	4-5	0.452	6.22	8.76	3.79	1.35	0.49	0.18
CIN	3-5-1	0.451	9.94	10.16	4.00	1.42	0.53	0.19
HOU	6-3	0.436	67.43	69.50	31.58	10.95	3.79	1.31
LA	4-5	0.411	1.32	3.18	1.41	0.46	0.15	0.05
JAC	2-7	0.375	0.19	0.20	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00
NYJ	3-7	0.364	0.03	0.09	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
SF	1-8	0.344	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CHI	2-7	0.342	0.33	0.36	0.11	0.03	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-10	0.290	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England

2016-11-14

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 10, Sunday

Dallas over New England

Dallas won and New England lost, swapping their positions in my strength ratings, and thus also inverting my Superbowl projection. I think I could root for Dallas in the Superbowl. After all, I did it back in the early 90s before St. Louis got a team. I even had a Troy Aikman poster in my room at one point.

With 1 8-win team and 2 8+ loss teams, we're getting ever closer to our first real elimination. I ran 1 billion simulations this week, and as you can see Cleveland won their division in at least one of them, but never won the Superbowl. As I always feel the need to point out, if you can make the playoffs, you have some chance of being champion, so the zero chances of them winning it all, or the AFC, or even making the AFC championship, aren't quite accurate. But, in my billion weighted random samples, it never happened, so don't bet on them unless someone gives you 1000000000:1 odds or better.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DAL	8-1	0.656	87.89	98.63	93.46	56.83	33.95	19.38
NE	7-2	0.649	93.40	97.42	93.42	57.16	34.04	18.86
PHI	5-4	0.634	3.53	49.58	30.82	16.07	8.97	4.91
DEN	7-3	0.606	24.17	74.02	53.50	28.70	14.97	7.62
ARI	4-4-1	0.595	18.29	37.48	24.64	12.56	6.23	3.15
SEA	6-2-1	0.582	80.38	89.22	74.69	39.39	18.65	9.20
KC	7-2	0.582	44.63	83.07	64.28	33.86	16.47	7.98
BUF	4-5	0.564	1.10	18.01	10.28	4.71	2.27	1.06
MIN	5-4	0.559	48.48	56.58	33.71	15.70	7.19	3.38
ATL	6-4	0.557	73.97	77.30	47.40	22.36	10.12	4.74
BAL	5-4	0.554	56.93	58.80	32.15	14.81	6.97	3.19
OAK	7-2	0.540	31.16	80.28	56.51	26.13	11.57	5.12
TEN	5-5	0.524	21.01	27.81	14.29	6.10	2.66	1.14
SD	4-6	0.523	0.04	3.69	1.90	0.77	0.35	0.15
PIT	4-5	0.516	27.16	31.13	14.95	6.29	2.72	1.14
WAS	5-3-1	0.506	2.69	41.27	20.48	7.98	3.35	1.40
NO	4-5	0.503	17.50	22.15	10.91	4.43	1.80	0.75
DET	5-4	0.498	37.02	46.27	24.57	9.92	3.93	1.62
MIA	5-4	0.496	5.47	25.51	14.24	5.82	2.42	0.97
NYG	5-3	0.493	5.90	47.34	24.12	9.17	3.72	1.51
CAR	3-6	0.491	2.31	3.44	1.54	0.59	0.24	0.10
GB	4-5	0.480	14.17	17.79	8.12	3.07	1.18	0.46
IND	4-5	0.471	11.41	14.05	6.14	2.28	0.87	0.33
CIN	3-4-1	0.454	15.91	16.49	6.71	2.41	0.90	0.33
TB	4-5	0.452	6.22	9.08	3.91	1.39	0.50	0.18
HOU	6-3	0.436	67.39	69.43	31.52	10.94	3.79	1.31
LA	4-5	0.411	1.32	3.49	1.52	0.49	0.16	0.05
JAC	2-7	0.375	0.19	0.20	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00
NYJ	3-7	0.364	0.03	0.09	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
SF	1-8	0.344	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CHI	2-7	0.342	0.33	0.36	0.11	0.03	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-10	0.290	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas