Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 12, Sunday

San Francisco over Houston

Houston fell down another spot, but is still the most likely AFC Champ. They may be coasting a bit now, knowing a first round bye is easily in reach.

There are two more division eliminations this week. First up is Tennessee. Obviously with 7 losses they can't catch the 10-win Texans. Oakland is also eliminated. The best they can do is to tie Denver, leaving them 1-1 against Denver, 4-2 in the division, the same as Denver, but with a worse common game percentage.

Kansas City is the first team mathematically eliminated from the playoffs altogether. It would be hard to enumerate all the scenarios to prove it, but I did run a number of simulations with KC going 6-10, and in every one they failed to win a wildcard spot.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	8-2-1	0.740	98.053	99.695	88.848	54.132	33.029	18.966
NE	8-3	0.722	98.630	99.678	80.253	47.055	26.871	14.645
CHI	8-3	0.705	76.389	97.271	75.442	40.175	22.107	11.746
HOU	10-1	0.698	98.674	100.000	98.222	58.997	31.352	16.197
DEN	8-3	0.671	99.993	99.995	77.542	38.982	19.304	9.377
ATL	10-1	0.649	98.964	99.929	93.688	48.734	21.515	10.055
NYG	7-4	0.645	84.324	91.034	54.565	24.640	11.257	5.216
BAL	9-2	0.626	95.862	99.887	79.060	34.564	15.296	6.694
TB	6-5	0.600	1.003	37.197	16.201	6.648	2.730	1.138
SEA	6-5	0.585	1.916	47.216	20.479	8.214	3.243	1.305
CIN	6-5	0.567	2.028	49.114	19.247	7.068	2.806	1.065
GB	7-4	0.555	21.023	71.952	31.313	11.295	4.160	1.555
PIT	6-5	0.549	2.110	47.725	17.851	6.247	2.367	0.858
WAS	5-6	0.518	10.165	19.410	7.373	2.454	0.812	0.276
SD	4-7	0.517	0.007	13.085	4.418	1.422	0.502	0.168
NO	5-6	0.507	0.033	8.949	3.051	0.978	0.320	0.106
MIN	6-5	0.498	2.588	16.509	5.602	1.770	0.561	0.181
DET	4-7	0.476	-	0.479	0.150	0.044	0.013	0.004
MIA	5-6	0.465	1.363	6.147	1.929	0.549	0.168	0.049
DAL	5-6	0.459	5.367	9.015	2.971	0.842	0.237	0.069
CLE	3-8	0.414	-	0.378	0.092	0.022	0.006	0.001
IND	7-4	0.413	1.326	77.279	19.976	4.814	1.265	0.314
STL	4-6-1	0.393	0.029	1.048	0.246	0.060	0.014	0.003
ARI	4-7	0.385	0.001	0.120	0.029	0.007	0.002	0.000
CAR	2-8	0.377	-	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYJ	4-7	0.367	0.003	3.620	0.782	0.159	0.037	0.008
BUF	4-7	0.367	0.003	1.311	0.283	0.058	0.013	0.003
TEN	4-7	0.338	-	1.704	0.332	0.062	0.013	0.002
PHI	3-7	0.319	0.144	0.176	0.041	0.007	0.001	0.000
OAK	3-8	0.285	-	0.076	0.012	0.002	0.000	0.000
JAC	2-9	0.284	-	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
KC	1-10	0.247	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)

First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]