2012-11-26

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 12, Sunday

San Francisco over Houston

Houston fell down another spot, but is still the most likely AFC Champ. They may be coasting a bit now, knowing a first round bye is easily in reach.

There are two more division eliminations this week. First up is Tennessee. Obviously with 7 losses they can't catch the 10-win Texans. Oakland is also eliminated. The best they can do is to tie Denver, leaving them 1-1 against Denver, 4-2 in the division, the same as Denver, but with a worse common game percentage.

Kansas City is the first team mathematically eliminated from the playoffs altogether. It would be hard to enumerate all the scenarios to prove it, but I did run a number of simulations with KC going 6-10, and in every one they failed to win a wildcard spot.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF8-2-10.74098.05399.69588.84854.13233.02918.966
NE8-30.72298.63099.67880.25347.05526.87114.645
CHI8-30.70576.38997.27175.44240.17522.10711.746
HOU10-10.69898.674100.00098.22258.99731.35216.197
DEN8-30.67199.99399.99577.54238.98219.3049.377
ATL10-10.64998.96499.92993.68848.73421.51510.055
NYG7-40.64584.32491.03454.56524.64011.2575.216
BAL9-20.62695.86299.88779.06034.56415.2966.694
TB6-50.6001.00337.19716.2016.6482.7301.138
SEA6-50.5851.91647.21620.4798.2143.2431.305
CIN6-50.5672.02849.11419.2477.0682.8061.065
GB7-40.55521.02371.95231.31311.2954.1601.555
PIT6-50.5492.11047.72517.8516.2472.3670.858
WAS5-60.51810.16519.4107.3732.4540.8120.276
SD4-70.5170.00713.0854.4181.4220.5020.168
NO5-60.5070.0338.9493.0510.9780.3200.106
MIN6-50.4982.58816.5095.6021.7700.5610.181
DET4-70.476-0.4790.1500.0440.0130.004
MIA5-60.4651.3636.1471.9290.5490.1680.049
DAL5-60.4595.3679.0152.9710.8420.2370.069
CLE3-80.414-0.3780.0920.0220.0060.001
IND7-40.4131.32677.27919.9764.8141.2650.314
STL4-6-10.3930.0291.0480.2460.0600.0140.003
ARI4-70.3850.0010.1200.0290.0070.0020.000
CAR2-80.377-0.0010.0000.0000.0000.000
NYJ4-70.3670.0033.6200.7820.1590.0370.008
BUF4-70.3670.0031.3110.2830.0580.0130.003
TEN4-70.338-1.7040.3320.0620.0130.002
PHI3-70.3190.1440.1760.0410.0070.0010.000
OAK3-80.285-0.0760.0120.0020.0000.000
JAC2-90.284-0.0020.0000.0000.0000.000
KC1-100.247------

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]

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