Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 11, Sunday

New England over Arizona

Oakland is finally officially eliminated, and New England takes over the AFC favorite spot. In the last two years, the first elimination came in week 12, with 2-9 Atlanta and 1-10 Kansas City earning the honors in 2013 and 2012.

In the NFC, the first team has reached a 99% certainty of a playoff spot, which of course is 9-1 Arizona. This is significantly later than 2012 when Houston managed it at 6-1 in week 7, and 2013, when Kansas City reached it by going 8-0 in week 8.

Earlier this week, when I saw Denver was only favored by 9.5 to 10.5 points over the Rams, I told a friend of mine that sounded like easy money, I should bet on Denver, but unfortunately there's no legal sports book nearby, nor do I "know a guy who knows a guy". The result of that game is why I don't gamble. As that game unfolded I kept waiting for the Rams collapse and for Peyton Manning to take control, but it never happened. I'm not giving up on the Rams just yet, even though their chances are pretty minuscule at this point. They do still have a game against the Raiders, so at least there's that.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
GB	7-3	0.662	53.695	87.646	68.963	40.140	22.921	12.551
BAL	6-4	0.656	33.715	53.310	34.506	18.625	10.187	5.592
NE	8-2	0.650	90.357	95.472	86.561	48.624	26.619	14.434
KC	7-3	0.648	51.779	87.208	68.244	38.003	20.488	11.067
ARI	9-1	0.631	90.352	99.080	94.570	52.827	27.920	14.349
DAL	7-3	0.594	45.330	73.935	47.857	23.074	11.237	5.346
DEN	7-3	0.593	43.369	77.228	54.901	26.543	12.516	6.038
IND	6-4	0.592	80.551	82.278	46.643	22.065	10.439	5.028
MIA	5-5	0.591	6.992	25.485	14.321	6.751	3.239	1.556
SEA	6-4	0.587	6.452	40.672	24.175	11.306	5.396	2.524
DET	7-3	0.585	45.826	81.331	57.453	27.853	13.156	6.138
PHI	7-3	0.580	54.614	71.804	44.679	20.873	9.858	4.546
SD	6-4	0.559	4.852	24.532	12.995	5.707	2.542	1.137
HOU	5-5	0.554	19.389	30.571	15.783	6.811	2.966	1.313
CLE	6-4	0.548	17.452	30.398	15.791	6.690	2.873	1.255
PIT	6-4	0.541	24.082	42.096	23.539	9.879	4.149	1.785
SF	6-4	0.539	3.176	39.395	20.754	8.674	3.716	1.562
NO	4-6	0.516	55.208	55.231	23.350	9.215	3.718	1.484
BUF	5-5	0.514	2.651	7.664	3.528	1.391	0.559	0.226
CIN	6-3-1	0.506	24.752	43.694	23.170	8.905	3.422	1.358
ATL	4-6	0.468	36.896	36.917	13.935	4.893	1.753	0.619
CHI	5-5	0.411	0.450	5.074	1.856	0.553	0.173	0.052
MIN	4-6	0.411	0.030	0.546	0.183	0.055	0.018	0.005
WAS	3-7	0.398	0.022	0.067	0.021	0.006	0.002	0.001
NYG	3-7	0.388	0.034	0.057	0.018	0.005	0.001	0.000
STL	4-6	0.356	0.019	0.348	0.100	0.025	0.007	0.002
TB	2-8	0.345	0.383	0.383	0.104	0.026	0.006	0.002
CAR	3-7-1	0.341	7.513	7.514	1.982	0.475	0.118	0.029
TEN	2-7	0.338	0.059	0.064	0.017	0.004	0.001	0.000
NYJ	2-8	0.326	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
OAK	0-10	0.287	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-9	0.281	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]