Tenets of Wilson: 2020

2020-12-29

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 16, Final

Kansas City over Green Bay

Buffalo beat New England, but they had already clinched the division and New England was already eliminated, so the game had no huge effect on the projections. Next year I think I might track the potential seeding better. I never publish it here, but I have more data output from my software that tells me the chances of each team getting homefield advantage, which is just the #1 seed. Tracking down to #7 should be pretty simple, and going further would just mean repeating the process that finds the next wildcard over and over. That would allow me to tell you my projection for who will get the #2 seed, Buffalo or Pittsburgh, much more easily. But, let's figure it out.

Since Buffalo beat Pittsburgh head to head, they have the tiebreaker, so Pittsburgh needs a win and a Buffalo loss. I give Buffalo a 54% chance of losing Sunday against Miami, and Pittsburgh has a 73% chance of beating Cleveland. Ignoring ties, that puts Pittsburgh at 39%, and Buffalo at 61%. That will determine who faces the #6 vs #7 team, but also if both teams win, who get to host the rematch...if I did all that bracket math right.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	14-1	0.720	++	++	++	56.35	30.40	16.65
GB	12-3	0.698	++	++	91.02	52.46	27.67	13.78
TB	10-5	0.708	-	++	71.53	38.56	21.06	10.74
NO	11-4	0.706	++	++	68.47	39.26	21.00	10.65
BAL	10-5	0.735	-	96.26	57.85	31.64	17.68	10.01
PIT	12-3	0.709	++	++	59.80	32.76	16.46	8.80
MIA	10-5	0.697	-	90.81	52.21	25.46	12.75	6.63
SEA	11-4	0.651	++	++	56.54	26.75	12.54	5.58
BUF	12-3	0.667	++	++	49.86	23.48	10.82	5.25
LAR	9-6	0.641	-	84.44	42.06	18.72	8.78	3.81
IND	10-5	0.636	24.91	78.99	34.21	14.46	6.26	2.83
TEN	10-5	0.582	75.09	88.79	32.91	12.33	4.62	1.83
ARI	8-7	0.602	-	45.81	19.72	8.11	3.41	1.35
CHI	8-7	0.544	-	69.75	24.39	8.45	3.17	1.08
WAS	6-9	0.500	65.10	65.10	19.68	6.33	2.09	0.63
CLE	10-5	0.476	-	45.14	13.16	3.52	1.01	0.31
DAL	6-9	0.374	19.76	19.76	4.07	0.90	0.21	0.04
NYG	5-10	0.314	15.14	15.14	2.51	0.45	0.08	0.01
ATL	4-11	0.498	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-9	0.478	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-10	0.448	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	7-8	0.425	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	6-9	0.420	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	6-9	0.409	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	6-9	0.389	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-11	0.360	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	4-10-1	0.349	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	4-10-1	0.344	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	5-10	0.274	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-10	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-14	0.214	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	2-13	0.151	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye and homefield in conference playoffs: Kansas City (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 14, Final] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Thursday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Friday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay

2020-12-28

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 16, Sunday

Kansas City over Green Bay

Absolutely no one clinched a playoff spot on Sunday, which has to be a bit rare this late in the season. It was only 11 games due to the Friday, Saturday, and Monday games, but still. We did have 2 teams who previously clinched at least a wildcard now clinch their divisions (Pittsburgh and Seattle). Now the AFC South comes down to Indianapolis and Tennessee, both 10-5. Unfortunately they aren't playing each other next week. It's a 1 in 3 chance assuming the NFL schedules those last-week divisional matchups randomly. The other division up for grabs is the terrible NFC East. I'm rooting for Washington and Dallas to lose so we can have a 6-10 team in the playoffs. It just feels so much sillier than 7-9. Finally, Kansas City clinched a first round bye, which is the same as homefield advantage this year.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	14-1	0.720	++	++	++	56.26	30.82	16.88
GB	12-3	0.698	++	++	91.02	52.47	27.67	13.85
TB	10-5	0.708	-	++	71.53	38.56	21.06	10.79
NO	11-4	0.706	++	++	68.48	39.27	21.00	10.71
BAL	10-5	0.735	-	96.26	60.35	33.20	18.67	10.57
PIT	12-3	0.709	++	++	60.40	34.54	17.32	9.26
MIA	10-5	0.697	-	91.86	53.46	26.40	13.32	6.93
SEA	11-4	0.651	++	++	56.54	26.75	12.54	5.62
LAR	9-6	0.641	-	84.44	42.06	18.72	8.78	3.84
BUF	11-3	0.618	++	++	44.26	18.46	7.54	3.27
IND	10-5	0.636	24.92	78.25	35.04	14.91	6.51	2.94
TEN	10-5	0.582	75.08	87.68	32.71	12.54	4.74	1.88
ARI	8-7	0.602	-	45.81	19.72	8.11	3.41	1.35
CHI	8-7	0.544	-	69.75	24.39	8.44	3.17	1.08
WAS	6-9	0.500	65.10	65.10	19.68	6.33	2.09	0.64
CLE	10-5	0.476	-	45.94	13.77	3.68	1.08	0.33
DAL	6-9	0.374	19.76	19.76	4.07	0.90	0.21	0.04
NYG	5-10	0.314	15.14	15.14	2.51	0.45	0.08	0.01
ATL	4-11	0.498	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-9	0.478	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	6-8	0.473	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-10	0.448	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	7-8	0.424	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	6-9	0.420	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	6-9	0.389	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-11	0.360	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	4-10-1	0.349	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	4-10-1	0.344	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	5-10	0.274	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-10	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-14	0.214	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	2-13	0.151	-	-	-	-	-	-

2020-12-27

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 17

There were 10 bowls played this week, which is a good percentage of what will wind up being played. I'd guess we'll get 25 at most. I can't really say today's rankings should update my playoff recommendations, because 2 of my teams have now played their bowl game. #2 Coastal Carolina lost, though remained in place. #3 BYU won to pass up Clemson, while #4 Louisiana jumped up from #6. Barring any rescheduling, we'll get the rest of the bowls in "Week 18", December 27-Jan 2, and the title game on January 11.

1	Alabama	11-0
2	Coastal Carolina	11-1
3	BYU	11-1
4	Louisiana	10-1
5	Clemson	10-1
6	Notre Dame	10-1
7	Cincinnati	9-0
8	Appalachian State	9-3
9	Liberty	10-1
10	Miami	8-2
11	Iowa State	8-3
12	Army	9-2
13	Oklahoma	8-2
14	NC State	8-3
15	Texas A&M	8-1
16	North Carolina	8-3
17	Memphis	8-3
18	Florida	8-3
19	Georgia Southern	8-5
20	San Jose State	7-0
21	Oklahoma State	7-3
22	Georgia	7-2
23	SMU	7-3
24	UTSA	7-5
25	Marshall	7-3
26	UAB	6-3
27	Tulsa	6-2
28	Texas	6-3
29	Nevada	7-2
30	Ohio State	6-0
31	Georgia State	6-4
32	TCU	6-4
33	Auburn	6-4
34	UCF	6-4
35	Pittsburgh	6-5
36	Ball State	6-1
37	Indiana	6-1
38	Tulane	6-6
39	Boston College	6-5
40	Buffalo	6-1
41	Northwestern	6-2
42	Virginia Tech	5-6
43	Iowa	6-2
44	Louisiana Tech	5-5
45	Virginia	5-5
46	Boise State	5-2
47	Troy	5-6
48	West Virginia	5-4
49	USC	5-1
50	Florida Atlantic	5-4
51	LSU	5-5
52	Missouri	5-5
53	Hawai'i	5-4
54	Colorado	4-1
55	Western Kentucky	5-7
56	Wake Forest	4-4
57	Kansas State	4-6
58	Stanford	4-2
59	Arkansas State	4-7
60	San Diego State	4-4
61	South Alabama	4-7
62	Oregon	4-2
63	Louisville	4-7
64	Texas Tech	4-6
65	Western Michigan	4-2
66	Ole Miss	4-5
67	Toledo	4-2
68	Kentucky	4-6
69	North Texas	4-6
70	Houston	3-5
71	Air Force	3-3
72	Washington	3-1
73	Utah	3-2
74	Florida State	3-6
75	Arkansas	3-7
76	Penn State	4-5
77	Wisconsin	3-3
78	Kent State	3-1
79	Navy	3-7
80	East Carolina	3-6
81	Middle Tennessee	3-6
82	Georgia Tech	3-7
83	Central Michigan	3-3
84	Mississippi State	3-7
85	Miami (OH)	2-1
86	Tennessee	3-7
87	Southern Mississippi	3-7
88	UCLA	3-4
89	UTEP	3-5
90	Rice	2-3
91	Fresno State	3-3
92	Nebraska	3-5
93	Minnesota	3-4
94	Maryland	2-3
95	Ohio	2-1
96	Charlotte	2-4
97	Arizona State	2-2
98	Baylor	2-7
99	Texas State	2-10
100	Michigan State	2-5
101	Eastern Michigan	2-4
102	Rutgers	3-6
103	Michigan	2-4
104	Purdue	2-4
105	New Mexico	2-5
106	Wyoming	2-4
107	Duke	2-9
108	South Carolina	2-8
109	Oregon State	2-5
110	Washington State	1-3
111	Colorado State	1-3
112	California	1-3
113	Illinois	2-6
114	Temple	1-6
115	Utah State	1-5
116	UMass	0-4
117	Syracuse	1-10
118	South Florida	1-8
119	Akron	1-5
120	Florida International	0-5
121	Kansas	0-9
122	Arizona	0-5
123	UNLV	0-6
124	UL Monroe	0-10
125	Northern Illinois	0-6
126	Bowling Green	0-5
127	Vanderbilt	0-9

2020 History and #1s
Week 1 UAB
Week 2 Army
Week 3 Miami
Week 4 Miami
Week 5 SMU
Week 6 BYU
Week 7 BYU
Week 8 BYU
Week 9 BYU
Week 10 BYU
Week 11 BYU
Week 12 BYU
Week 13 Notre Dame
Week 14 Coastal Carolina
Week 15 Coastal Carolina
Week 16 Alabama

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 16, Saturday

Kansas City over Green Bay

There wasn't a whole lot at stake in the 3 games Saturday. Las Vegas did get officially eliminated by losing to Miami, but that was pretty sure to happen eventually. Tampa clinched a playoff spot by beating Detroit by 40 points, also pretty likely to happen eventually. One big swing was Arizona, who went from 74% to 47% likely to make the playoffs, by losing to already-eliminated San Francisco. We're up to 13 (of 18) eliminations. Both byes could be clinched Sunday, though it will take a bit more games to fall in place for Green Bay than it would for Kansas City.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	13-1	0.709	++	++	99.96	56.11	31.08	17.00
NO	11-4	0.706	++	++	69.41	40.15	22.35	11.81
TB	10-5	0.708	-	++	69.12	38.26	21.54	11.43
GB	11-3	0.658	++	++	91.75	49.07	23.68	11.21
PIT	11-3	0.702	89.53	++	59.18	33.98	17.55	9.46
BAL	9-5	0.709	-	75.85	43.64	22.77	12.51	6.85
LAR	9-5	0.659	38.17	94.85	52.21	25.42	12.71	6.03
MIA	10-5	0.697	-	72.27	40.86	21.15	11.16	5.95
SEA	10-4	0.629	61.83	++	50.43	22.94	10.64	4.70
TEN	10-4	0.623	68.27	94.85	45.83	20.14	8.69	3.92
BUF	11-3	0.618	++	++	46.59	20.65	8.72	3.89
IND	10-4	0.643	31.73	74.73	36.61	16.90	7.75	3.66
ARI	8-7	0.602	-	47.35	19.81	8.63	3.75	1.55
WAS	6-8	0.516	80.19	80.19	25.30	8.77	3.16	1.05
CLE	10-4	0.489	10.47	82.30	27.33	8.29	2.54	0.82
CHI	7-7	0.494	-	57.80	18.09	5.90	1.97	0.62
PHI	4-9-1	0.385	7.73	7.73	1.65	0.39	0.10	0.02
NYG	5-9	0.344	8.56	8.56	1.59	0.33	0.07	0.01
DAL	5-9	0.343	3.53	3.53	0.65	0.13	0.03	0.01
ATL	4-10	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-9	0.478	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	6-8	0.473	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-10	0.435	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	7-8	0.424	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	6-9	0.420	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	5-9	0.386	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-10	0.368	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	3-10-1	0.329	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-9	0.281	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	5-10	0.274	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-13	0.247	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	1-13	0.155	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 14, Final] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Thursday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Friday] Kansas City over Green Bay

2020-12-26

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 16, Friday

Kansas City over Green Bay

I feel like in past years I wanted there to be football on Christmas and there wasn't. Maybe Christmas was on an awkward day like Tuesday or Wednesday, which didn't used to have many games (until 2020). As usual, Wikipedia can come to my rescue. There have only been 22 games in history, on just 16 Christmases. Two were playoff games in 1971, then there were 20 over 15 Christmases since 1989. So the short answer is, we get games about half of the time, but with multi-year gaps sometimes.

Onto the game itself, New Orleans clinched the NFC South, and Minnesota was eliminated from the playoffs. There are now 12 teams eliminated, and 6 more eliminations to go. Saturday has 3 games, with Las Vegas the only team on the brink of elimination. Tampa could grab a wildcard spot with a win today, and Arizona could get themselves closer but not quite there.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	13-1	0.709	++	++	99.95	56.35	31.30	17.60
NO	11-4	0.706	++	++	66.72	40.05	23.04	12.19
GB	11-3	0.658	++	++	91.30	49.85	25.03	11.87
PIT	11-3	0.703	89.54	++	58.79	33.87	17.55	9.73
BAL	9-5	0.709	-	79.47	45.66	24.03	13.26	7.46
LAR	9-5	0.659	37.43	98.28	53.98	27.23	14.14	6.72
TB	9-5	0.644	-	98.42	57.46	27.91	13.69	6.28
SEA	10-4	0.629	62.57	++	51.41	24.40	11.65	5.16
MIA	9-5	0.696	-	59.27	33.28	17.11	9.03	4.94
TEN	10-4	0.623	68.28	96.12	46.99	20.71	8.95	4.18
BUF	11-3	0.618	++	++	47.41	21.08	8.91	4.11
IND	10-4	0.643	31.72	79.74	39.24	18.14	8.34	4.06
ARI	8-6	0.613	-	73.66	34.86	15.89	7.33	3.13
WAS	6-8	0.516	80.19	80.19	30.06	10.53	3.77	1.26
CLE	10-4	0.489	10.46	85.20	28.63	8.71	2.67	0.90
CHI	7-7	0.494	-	29.64	9.45	3.07	1.10	0.35
PHI	4-9-1	0.385	7.73	7.73	2.02	0.49	0.12	0.03
NYG	5-9	0.344	8.55	8.55	1.95	0.41	0.09	0.02
DAL	5-9	0.343	3.52	3.52	0.80	0.17	0.04	0.01
LV	7-7	0.427	-	0.20	0.06	0.01	0.00	0.00
ATL	4-10	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	6-8	0.473	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	5-9	0.463	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-10	0.435	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	6-9	0.420	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	5-9	0.386	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-10	0.368	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	5-9	0.334	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	3-10-1	0.329	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-9	0.281	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-13	0.247	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	1-13	0.155	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 14, Final] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Thursday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay

2020-12-22

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 15, Final

Kansas City over Green Bay

Pittsburgh lost again, this time to long-eliminated Cincinnati, and suddenly the team that started 11-0 has a real chance of only being a wildcard.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	13-1	0.709	++	++	99.93	56.34	31.29	17.85
GB	11-3	0.658	++	++	92.05	50.27	25.90	12.29
PIT	11-3	0.702	89.53	++	58.80	33.87	17.55	9.88
NO	10-4	0.683	96.36	++	62.10	35.50	19.49	9.78
BAL	9-5	0.709	-	79.46	45.64	24.02	13.26	7.57
LAR	9-5	0.659	37.43	98.28	55.46	28.66	15.02	7.14
TB	9-5	0.644	3.64	98.42	57.09	28.24	14.09	6.46
SEA	10-4	0.628	62.57	++	52.88	25.74	12.45	5.51
MIA	9-5	0.696	-	59.27	33.28	17.10	9.03	5.01
TEN	10-4	0.623	68.27	96.13	46.99	20.71	8.95	4.25
BUF	11-3	0.618	++	++	47.42	21.08	8.91	4.18
IND	10-4	0.643	31.73	79.75	39.24	18.15	8.34	4.13
ARI	8-6	0.613	-	73.10	35.65	16.41	7.66	3.27
WAS	6-8	0.516	80.18	80.18	30.06	10.78	3.94	1.32
CLE	10-4	0.489	10.47	85.20	28.65	8.72	2.67	0.92
CHI	7-7	0.494	-	27.72	9.18	3.09	1.11	0.35
PHI	4-9-1	0.385	7.73	7.73	2.02	0.50	0.13	0.03
MIN	6-8	0.450	-	2.48	0.75	0.23	0.07	0.02
NYG	5-9	0.344	8.56	8.56	1.96	0.42	0.09	0.02
DAL	5-9	0.343	3.53	3.53	0.80	0.17	0.04	0.01
LV	7-7	0.427	-	0.20	0.06	0.01	0.00	0.00
ATL	4-10	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	6-8	0.473	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	5-9	0.463	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-10	0.435	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	5-9	0.386	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-10	0.368	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	5-9	0.334	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	3-10-1	0.329	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-9	0.281	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-13	0.247	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	1-13	0.155	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 14, Final] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Thursday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay

2020-12-21

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 15, Sunday

Kansas City over Green Bay

Green Bay held onto their NFC lead as New Orleans lost to Kansas City. That games was pretty much a tossup, and the game ended close, so the teams strengths didn't change much, but Green Bay now has a full 1 game lead.

3 more teams were eliminated, New England, San Francisco, and Detroit, all 3 at least partially due to their own loss. Arizona was eliminated from winning the NFC West, while Seattle clinched at least a wildcard spot.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	13-1	0.709	++	++	97.04	54.99	30.03	17.13
GB	11-3	0.658	++	++	92.05	50.27	25.90	12.19
PIT	11-2	0.716	98.53	++	62.53	37.30	19.98	11.57
NO	10-4	0.683	96.36	++	62.10	35.50	19.49	9.71
BAL	9-5	0.709	-	80.42	45.21	23.81	13.04	7.45
LAR	9-5	0.659	37.43	98.28	55.46	28.66	15.02	7.08
TB	9-5	0.644	3.64	98.42	57.10	28.24	14.09	6.41
SEA	10-4	0.628	62.57	++	52.88	25.74	12.45	5.47
MIA	9-5	0.696	-	59.05	33.00	16.86	8.81	4.89
BUF	11-3	0.618	++	++	48.47	20.80	8.79	4.13
TEN	10-4	0.623	69.02	96.09	46.27	20.12	8.68	4.12
IND	10-4	0.643	30.98	79.13	38.69	17.52	8.05	3.99
ARI	8-6	0.613	-	73.10	35.65	16.41	7.66	3.24
WAS	6-8	0.516	80.18	80.18	30.06	10.78	3.94	1.30
CLE	10-4	0.489	1.47	85.12	28.73	8.58	2.61	0.90
CHI	7-7	0.494	-	27.72	9.18	3.09	1.11	0.35
PHI	4-9-1	0.385	7.73	7.73	2.02	0.50	0.13	0.03
MIN	6-8	0.450	-	2.48	0.75	0.22	0.07	0.02
NYG	5-9	0.344	8.56	8.56	1.96	0.42	0.09	0.02
DAL	5-9	0.343	3.53	3.53	0.80	0.17	0.04	0.01
LV	7-7	0.427	-	0.19	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00
ATL	4-10	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	6-8	0.473	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	5-9	0.463	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-10	0.435	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	5-9	0.386	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-10	0.368	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	5-9	0.334	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	2-10-1	0.312	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-9	0.281	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-13	0.247	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	1-13	0.155	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 14, Final] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Thursday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay

2020-12-20

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 16

Alabama has taken over the #1 spot in a week featuring some conference title games, some makeup games, and not much else. I've complained in the past about the playoff teams being chosen before the Army-Navy game, so at least there's the bright side that the committee waited until all games were played this year. Of course, I didn't exactly want it to happen this way.

My playoff 4 would be #1 Alabama vs #4 BYU, playing the winner of #2 Coastal Carolina and #3 Clemson. Now, this would probably result in an Alabama vs Clemson final once the games were played, so there's a possibility I could half-get my wish, because the committee has already chosen the teams, and Alabama and Clemson got the top 2 seeds. The committee chose to skip over BYU and Coastal Carolina, and put in my #5 Notre Dame in the 4th seed. Leapfrogging them is #29 Ohio State at the third seed.

#52 Missouri lost just 3 spots due to their loss to #83 Mississippi State, which I predicted would seriously lower their ranking.

#127 Vanderbilt didn't play, but neither did anyone else below about #111, so they keep their perfectly imperfect season and ranking. #125 UL-Monroe did drop one spot, but even at 0-10 couldn't outdo Vanderbilt. Or rather, they couldn't help but to outdo Vanderbilt.

1	Alabama	11-0
2	Coastal Carolina	11-0
3	Clemson	10-1
4	BYU	10-1
5	Notre Dame	10-1
6	Louisiana	9-1
7	Cincinnati	9-0
8	Miami	8-2
9	Iowa State	8-3
10	Oklahoma	8-2
11	Army	9-2
12	NC State	8-3
13	Texas A&M	8-1
14	North Carolina	8-3
15	Florida	8-3
16	Appalachian State	8-3
17	Liberty	9-1
18	Oklahoma State	7-3
19	Georgia	7-2
20	San Jose State	7-0
21	Marshall	7-2
22	SMU	7-3
23	UTSA	7-4
24	Memphis	7-3
25	UAB	6-3
26	Texas	6-3
27	Tulsa	6-2
28	Georgia Southern	7-5
29	Ohio State	6-0
30	TCU	6-4
31	Auburn	6-4
32	Pittsburgh	6-5
33	UCF	6-3
34	Indiana	6-1
35	Ball State	6-1
36	Tulane	6-5
37	Boston College	6-5
38	Northwestern	6-2
39	Virginia Tech	5-6
40	Iowa	6-2
41	Georgia State	5-4
42	Nevada	6-2
43	Louisiana Tech	5-4
44	Virginia	5-5
45	West Virginia	5-4
46	Boise State	5-2
47	Troy	5-6
48	Florida Atlantic	5-3
49	LSU	5-5
50	USC	5-1
51	Buffalo	5-1
52	Missouri	5-5
53	Western Kentucky	5-6
54	Wake Forest	4-4
55	Colorado	4-1
56	Kansas State	4-6
57	Stanford	4-2
58	Louisville	4-7
59	Texas Tech	4-6
60	Oregon	4-2
61	Arkansas State	4-7
62	Ole Miss	4-5
63	South Alabama	4-7
64	Western Michigan	4-2
65	San Diego State	4-4
66	Toledo	4-2
67	Kentucky	4-6
68	Houston	3-4
69	Hawai'i	4-4
70	North Texas	4-5
71	Florida State	3-6
72	Arkansas	3-7
73	Washington	3-1
74	Air Force	3-3
75	Utah	3-2
76	Penn State	4-5
77	Wisconsin	3-3
78	Kent State	3-1
79	Navy	3-7
80	Georgia Tech	3-7
81	Middle Tennessee	3-6
82	East Carolina	3-6
83	Mississippi State	3-7
84	Central Michigan	3-3
85	Tennessee	3-7
86	Miami (OH)	2-1
87	Southern Mississippi	3-7
88	UTEP	3-5
89	Rice	2-3
90	UCLA	3-4
91	Nebraska	3-5
92	Fresno State	3-3
93	Minnesota	3-4
94	Maryland	2-3
95	Ohio	2-1
96	Charlotte	2-4
97	Baylor	2-7
98	Arizona State	2-2
99	Michigan State	2-5
100	Texas State	2-10
101	Rutgers	3-6
102	Eastern Michigan	2-4
103	Michigan	2-4
104	Purdue	2-4
105	Duke	2-9
106	South Carolina	2-8
107	Wyoming	2-4
108	New Mexico	2-5
109	Oregon State	2-5
110	Washington State	1-3
111	Colorado State	1-3
T-112	California	1-3
T-112	Illinois	2-6
114	Temple	1-6
115	Syracuse	1-10
116	UMass	0-4
117	Utah State	1-5
118	South Florida	1-8
119	Akron	1-5
120	Florida International	0-5
121	Kansas	0-9
122	Arizona	0-5
123	UNLV	0-6
124	Northern Illinois	0-6
125	UL Monroe	0-10
126	Bowling Green	0-5
127	Vanderbilt	0-9

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 15, Saturday

Kansas City over Green Bay

We had 2 Saturday games this week, and 2 losers eliminated. Buffalo beat Denver to officially end their playoff hunt, and Green Bay did the same to Carolina. It took a 10th loss for Carolina to be out in the NFC, and Dallas is still alive for a wildcard spot with 9 losses. Green Bay also took over the NFC lead, at least for a day, while Buffalo clinched the AFC East title. There are many teams on the brink of clinching and elimination, which should happen soon for some of them, but there are also a fair number in the middle that will need another week to determine their fate, or have it determined for them.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	12-1	0.704	++	++	94.34	55.70	30.61	17.26
PIT	11-2	0.716	99.24	++	67.44	41.15	22.76	13.15
GB	11-3	0.658	++	++	86.70	48.32	24.67	11.90
NO	10-3	0.689	98.90	++	70.21	40.88	22.82	11.80
LAR	9-4	0.663	62.82	99.88	61.04	32.11	16.86	8.24
TB	8-5	0.637	1.10	95.63	51.90	25.08	12.45	5.73
BAL	8-5	0.667	-	82.47	43.60	21.21	10.71	5.58
SEA	9-4	0.617	35.79	99.17	52.16	24.28	11.41	5.01
BUF	11-3	0.618	++	++	51.77	22.73	9.92	4.64
MIA	8-5	0.673	-	61.62	32.75	16.01	8.23	4.35
IND	9-4	0.629	35.83	80.35	39.97	17.84	8.17	3.93
TEN	9-4	0.591	64.17	93.50	43.70	17.80	7.32	3.23
ARI	7-6	0.602	1.39	63.09	29.05	12.89	5.92	2.50
WAS	6-7	0.527	75.08	75.33	29.44	10.79	4.06	1.43
CLE	9-4	0.465	0.76	78.67	25.48	7.32	2.19	0.71
CHI	6-7	0.480	-	19.98	6.36	2.03	0.71	0.22
MIN	6-7	0.460	-	16.11	4.85	1.48	0.49	0.15
NYG	5-8	0.379	16.72	16.81	4.39	1.06	0.26	0.06
SF	5-8	0.478	-	5.14	1.56	0.49	0.17	0.05
PHI	4-8-1	0.397	7.60	7.66	2.09	0.53	0.14	0.03
NE	6-7	0.496	-	1.36	0.41	0.12	0.04	0.02
LV	7-7	0.427	-	2.03	0.53	0.13	0.04	0.01
DET	5-8	0.364	-	0.55	0.12	0.03	0.01	0.00
DAL	4-9	0.328	0.59	0.65	0.14	0.03	0.01	0.00
ATL	4-9	0.511	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-10	0.435	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	5-9	0.386	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-9	0.381	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	2-10-1	0.313	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-12	0.286	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-9	0.281	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	0-13	0.165	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 14, Final] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Thursday] Kansas City over New Orleans