Tenets of Wilson: 2017

2017-12-31

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 18

We've got a new #1! Of course, this isn't exactly fair because the Bowl Season is analogous to having a single week split up over about a month. But, Wisconsin, who I had at #4 to finish the season, but the committee did not see fit to put into the playoff, won their bowl against #11 Miami, to give them a strong strength of schedule boost, in addition to being the only 13-win team. UCF could see a similar boost on Monday, but against a slightly worse opponent. Ohio State also won their bowl over a strong USC team to jump over the playoff teams of Alabama and Oklahoma.

There are just 6 games left. 5 are Monday, including the 2 semifinals, with the championship game on the following Monday.

1	Wisconsin	13-1
2	Georgia	12-1
3	Clemson	12-1
4	UCF	12-0
5	Ohio State	12-2
6	Oklahoma	12-1
7	Alabama	11-1
8	Penn State	11-2
9	USC	11-3
10	Florida Atlantic	11-3
11	TCU	11-3
12	Boise State	11-3
13	Miami	10-3
14	Toledo	11-3
15	Auburn	10-3
16	Michigan State	10-3
17	Washington	10-3
18	Troy	11-2
19	Notre Dame	9-3
20	Northwestern	10-3
21	Oklahoma State	10-3
22	Memphis	10-3
23	NC State	9-4
24	Army	10-3
25	San Diego State	10-3
26	Stanford	9-5
27	Mississippi State	9-4
28	South Florida	10-2
29	Fresno State	10-4
30	Washington State	9-4
31	Virginia Tech	9-4
32	LSU	9-3
33	Iowa	8-5
34	North Texas	9-5
35	Wake Forest	8-5
36	South Carolina	8-4
37	Iowa State	8-5
38	Michigan	8-4
39	Ohio	9-4
40	Louisville	8-5
41	Kansas State	8-5
42	Appalachian State	9-4
43	Boston College	7-6
44	Northern Illinois	8-5
45	Arizona State	7-6
46	Marshall	8-5
47	Oregon	7-6
48	Florida Intl	8-5
49	Florida State	7-6
50	Navy	7-6
51	Texas A&M	7-6
52	Duke	7-6
53	Central Michigan	8-5
54	Kentucky	7-6
55	Purdue	7-6
56	Wyoming	8-5
57	Southern Mississippi	8-5
58	Utah	7-6
59	Houston	7-5
60	Texas	7-6
61	SMU	7-6
62	West Virginia	7-6
63	Arizona	7-6
64	Temple	7-6
65	Missouri	7-6
66	Akron	7-7
67	UAB	8-5
68	Louisiana Tech	7-6
69	UCLA	6-7
70	Texas Tech	6-7
71	Ole Miss	6-6
72	Middle Tennessee	7-6
73	Virginia	6-7
74	Georgia State	7-5
75	Georgia Tech	5-6
76	Western Michigan	6-6
77	Colorado State	7-6
78	Arkansas State	7-5
79	Buffalo	6-6
80	New Mexico State	7-6
81	Tulane	5-7
82	UT San Antonio	6-5
83	California	5-7
84	Pittsburgh	5-7
85	Vanderbilt	5-7
86	Utah State	6-7
87	Indiana	5-7
88	Minnesota	5-7
89	Syracuse	4-8
90	Colorado	5-7
91	Air Force	5-7
92	Western Kentucky	6-7
93	Maryland	4-8
94	Florida	4-7
95	Eastern Michigan	5-7
96	Miami (OH)	5-7
97	Nebraska	4-8
98	Old Dominion	5-7
99	Arkansas	4-8
100	Cincinnati	4-8
101	UNLV	5-7
102	Tennessee	4-8
103	Rutgers	4-8
104	Louisiana	5-7
105	Louisiana Monroe	4-8
106	Idaho	4-8
106	North Carolina	3-9
108	South Alabama	4-8
109	East Carolina	3-9
110	BYU	4-9
111	UMass	4-8
112	Connecticut	3-9
113	Nevada	3-9
114	New Mexico	3-9
115	Hawai'i	3-9
116	Bowling Green	2-10
117	Coastal Carolina	3-9
118	Tulsa	2-10
118	Kent State	2-10
120	Illinois	2-10
121	Georgia Southern	2-10
122	Ball State	2-10
123	Baylor	1-11
124	Kansas	1-11
125	Charlotte	1-11
126	San Jose State	2-11
127	Texas State	2-10
128	Oregon State	1-11
129	Rice	1-11
130	UTEP	0-12

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia
Week 6 Georgia
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Georgia
Week 10 Georgia
Week 11 Alabama
Week 12 Alabama
Week 13 Wisconsin
Week 14 Georgia
Week 15 Georgia
Week 16 Georgia
Week 17 Georgia

2017-12-26

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 16, Final

Philadelphia over New England

We had a bonus Monday game this week due to Christmas. In the day game, Pittsburgh beat Houston. That locked them into a first round bye, but didn't change much else because Pittsburgh was pretty heavily favored. They're up to a 15% chance of homefield advantage, for which they would need to do better than New England next week (i.e., if New England loses, Pittsburgh must win or tie. If New England ties, Pittsburgh would need to win).

The night game featured Philadelphia defeating Oakland to clinch homefield advantage in the NFC. Minnesota should get the other bye, but Carolina still has an outside chance. They need a win and a New Orleans loss (or tie) to win the division, and Minnesota to lose so they'll be tied at 12-4. But they also need LA not to win, because Carolina won't win out of the 3-team tiebreaker.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	13-2	0.777	++	++	++	63.96	34.33	19.34
NE	12-3	0.745	++	++	++	59.09	31.13	15.23
JAC	10-5	0.784	++	++	71.62	43.89	26.15	14.21
MIN	12-3	0.746	++	++	99.14	49.09	24.73	12.92
LAR	11-4	0.775	++	++	72.57	39.08	21.07	11.83
PIT	12-3	0.687	++	++	++	43.89	20.20	8.48
NO	11-4	0.730	89.62	++	64.12	29.00	13.63	6.84
BAL	9-6	0.697	-	97.95	53.31	24.71	11.26	4.85
KC	9-6	0.640	++	++	47.51	19.15	7.43	2.75
CAR	11-4	0.600	10.38	++	35.73	11.14	3.72	1.34
LAC	8-7	0.652	-	54.26	18.44	7.40	3.40	1.30
ATL	9-6	0.556	-	60.97	16.76	4.44	1.42	0.46
SEA	9-6	0.576	-	39.03	11.67	3.28	1.10	0.37
TEN	8-7	0.444	-	26.53	5.23	1.17	0.30	0.06
BUF	8-7	0.363	-	21.25	3.89	0.69	0.13	0.02
DAL	8-7	0.533	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	8-7	0.519	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	7-8	0.426	-	-	-	-	-	-
GB	7-8	0.417	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-10	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	4-11	0.389	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	6-9	0.388	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-10	0.366	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	6-9	0.354	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	5-10	0.353	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	7-8	0.349	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-11	0.339	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-10	0.309	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	6-9	0.284	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	3-12	0.212	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-13	0.203	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-15	0.168	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage: Philadelphia (Week 16, Final)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England

2017-12-25

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 16, Sunday

Philadelphia over New England

Jacksonville had been the AFC favorite since the end of week 14, but New England took over, partly due to Jacksonville's surprising loss to San Francisco. I gave Jacksonville about a 90% chance of winning, which is just about as high as those projections ever go. New England won and clinched a first round bye, along with a 89% chance of homefield advantage. Jacksonville did still clinch the AFC South, because of Tennessee's loss.

Atlanta was eliminated from the NFC South, but unfortunately the week 17 divisional matchups ddn't pair New Orleans and Carolina for a winner-take-all. Both are in the playoffs either way with 11 wins already. LA and KC clinched the NFC and AFC West, and Oakland, Miami, and Dallas were all eliminated. That makes Monday's games both between a division winner and an eliminated team, but Pittsburgh can push for a first round bye, and Philadelphia is still trying to clinch homefield advantage.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	12-2	0.755	++	++	++	60.80	30.92	16.67
NE	12-3	0.745	++	++	++	59.65	32.30	16.17
JAC	10-5	0.784	++	++	72.55	48.18	28.73	15.94
MIN	12-3	0.746	++	++	99.14	49.52	25.96	13.69
LAR	11-4	0.775	++	++	72.58	39.23	21.91	12.41
NO	11-4	0.730	89.63	++	64.13	30.23	14.45	7.32
PIT	11-3	0.633	++	++	98.92	37.28	15.08	5.64
BAL	9-6	0.697	-	97.95	53.35	25.54	11.92	5.26
KC	9-6	0.640	++	++	47.52	19.96	7.93	3.02
CAR	11-4	0.600	10.37	++	35.73	11.78	4.01	1.47
LAC	8-7	0.652	-	53.04	18.29	7.40	3.56	1.40
ATL	9-6	0.556	-	60.96	16.75	4.85	1.55	0.51
SEA	9-6	0.576	-	39.04	11.66	3.58	1.20	0.41
TEN	8-7	0.444	-	27.10	5.37	1.23	0.34	0.07
BUF	8-7	0.363	-	21.91	4.01	0.75	0.15	0.02
DAL	8-7	0.533	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	8-7	0.519	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	7-8	0.425	-	-	-	-	-	-
GB	7-8	0.416	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	6-8	0.409	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-10	0.393	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-10	0.389	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	4-11	0.389	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-10	0.366	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	6-9	0.354	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	5-10	0.353	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	7-8	0.349	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-10	0.309	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	6-9	0.284	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	3-12	0.212	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-13	0.203	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-15	0.168	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia

2017-12-24

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 17

It's Christmas Eve, but I'm still posting my power rankings for this week. There were only 8 bowl games this week, and no FCS games (the only one left is the championship, which will be 2 days before the FBS Championship), or lower division games, as they've finished their seasons. Georgia of course retains the number 1 spot, because the best team to play this week was #10 Toledo, who lost to fall to #12. Florida Atlantic won 50-3 to rise from #16 to #9. I should point out as I often do, my ranking system has no idea what the score of the game is, just who won, so the result would be the same if they had won 7-3 or 50-49.

There was some scuttlebutt this week about Florida State being technically bowl-ineligible due to their 6-6 record and their FCS opponent being non-countable due to them not handing out 90% of the scholarship limit. It seems to have been hand-waved away by pointing out how not all benefits given to the FCS school's athlete's were being considered when calculating the number. Frankly I'm no expert, maybe the threshold was met and maybe it wasn't, but I didn't expect for a minute Florida State would be removed from a bowl game over such an oversight. That's a whole lot of tickets to try to refund to FSU fans, and to try to sell to their replacement. Also, that replacement team figured they were done for the year, so it might be near impossible to get the full team and coaching staff back together to prepare in time.

Anyway, Merry Christmas, and enjoy the 21 bowl games this week!

1	Georgia	12-1
2	Clemson	12-1
3	UCF	12-0
4	Wisconsin	12-1
5	Oklahoma	12-1
6	Alabama	11-1
7	USC	11-2
8	Ohio State	11-2
9	Florida Atlantic	11-3
10	Boise State	11-3
11	Miami	10-2
12	Toledo	11-3
13	Auburn	10-3
14	Penn State	10-2
15	Washington	10-2
16	Troy	11-2
17	Notre Dame	9-3
18	Memphis	10-2
19	TCU	10-3
20	San Diego State	10-3
21	Army	10-3
22	Stanford	9-4
23	South Florida	10-2
24	Michigan State	9-3
25	Washington State	9-3
26	Virginia Tech	9-3
27	LSU	9-3
28	Northwestern	9-3
29	NC State	8-4
30	North Texas	9-5
31	Oklahoma State	9-3
32	South Carolina	8-4
33	Mississippi State	8-4
34	Fresno State	9-4
35	Michigan	8-4
36	Ohio	9-4
37	Louisville	8-4
38	Boston College	7-5
39	Appalachian State	9-4
40	Iowa	7-5
41	Northern Illinois	8-4
42	Wake Forest	7-5
43	Marshall	8-5
44	Florida Intl	8-5
45	Arizona State	7-5
46	Oregon	7-6
47	Texas A&M	7-5
48	Iowa State	7-5
49	Central Michigan	8-5
50	Southern Mississippi	8-4
51	Kentucky	7-5
52	Wyoming	8-5
53	Houston	7-4
54	Arizona	7-5
55	SMU	7-6
56	Kansas State	7-5
57	West Virginia	7-5
58	Missouri	7-5
59	Temple	7-6
60	UCLA	6-6
61	UAB	8-5
62	Louisiana Tech	7-6
63	Akron	7-7
64	Navy	6-6
65	Florida State	6-6
66	Texas Tech	6-7
67	Ole Miss	6-6
68	Purdue	6-6
69	Duke	6-6
70	Utah	6-6
71	Middle Tennessee	7-6
72	Virginia	6-6
73	Texas	6-6
74	Georgia State	7-5
75	Western Michigan	6-6
76	Colorado State	7-6
77	Georgia Tech	5-6
78	Buffalo	6-6
79	Arkansas State	7-5
80	Tulane	5-7
81	UT San Antonio	6-5
82	California	5-7
83	Utah State	6-6
84	Vanderbilt	5-7
85	Pittsburgh	5-7
86	Indiana	5-7
87	Minnesota	5-7
88	Syracuse	4-8
89	Western Kentucky	6-7
90	Colorado	5-7
91	Air Force	5-7
92	New Mexico State	6-6
93	Florida	4-7
94	Maryland	4-8
95	Eastern Michigan	5-7
96	Miami (OH)	5-7
97	Old Dominion	5-7
98	Arkansas	4-8
99	Nebraska	4-8
100	Cincinnati	4-8
101	Tennessee	4-8
102	UNLV	5-7
103	Louisiana	5-7
104	Rutgers	4-8
105	Louisiana Monroe	4-8
106	Idaho	4-8
107	North Carolina	3-9
108	East Carolina	3-9
109	South Alabama	4-8
110	UMass	4-8
111	BYU	4-9
112	Connecticut	3-9
113	Nevada	3-9
114	New Mexico	3-9
115	Hawai'i	3-9
116	Bowling Green	2-10
117	Kent State	2-10
118	Coastal Carolina	3-9
119	Tulsa	2-10
120	Illinois	2-10
121	Georgia Southern	2-10
122	Ball State	2-10
123	Charlotte	1-11
124	Texas State	2-10
125	Oregon State	1-11
126	Kansas	1-11
127	San Jose State	2-11
128	Baylor	1-11
129	Rice	1-11
130	UTEP	0-12

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 16, Saturday

Jacksonville over Philadelphia

I'm not sure why there were no Thursday games this week. If anything it might make sense to cancel the Monday game for Christmas. Perhaps it's the NFL's attempt to keep everything as even as possible in the last 2 weeks, with no extended breaks or short weeks.

No one clinched or was eliminated in the two games on Saturday. Green Bay was already out, and Minnesota pushed closer to securing a first round bye, but Carolina and LA can still catch them. Due to tiebreakers, they just need Carolina to lose this week to secure it. Minnesota also improved its chances of homefield advantage in the NFC playoffs to 4.4% from 3.1%, but Philadelphia could lock that down today. In the AFC game, Indianapolis was already out what seems like months ago, and Baltimore strengthened their wildcard position, but even 9 wins won't necessarily be enough to make the AFC playoffs this year.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
JAC	10-4	0.805	99.65	++	88.60	60.98	40.42	23.96
PHI	12-2	0.755	++	++	++	62.07	32.29	17.06
MIN	12-3	0.746	++	++	98.88	52.30	27.59	14.26
NE	11-3	0.713	++	++	94.31	51.95	24.68	11.54
LAR	10-4	0.766	99.04	99.34	69.50	36.66	20.38	11.05
NO	10-4	0.709	63.85	96.45	58.59	26.18	12.11	5.71
BAL	9-6	0.697	-	96.42	55.45	26.79	12.17	5.47
PIT	11-3	0.634	++	++	89.71	34.65	13.87	5.28
KC	8-6	0.610	97.04	97.04	43.25	16.89	6.07	2.17
CAR	10-4	0.593	18.83	92.32	35.53	11.51	3.94	1.38
ATL	9-5	0.577	17.32	76.06	26.72	8.25	2.75	0.93
LAC	7-7	0.632	2.96	28.79	11.19	4.62	1.86	0.70
DET	8-6	0.535	-	18.97	5.49	1.49	0.46	0.14
SEA	8-6	0.557	0.96	12.45	3.96	1.15	0.37	0.12
TEN	8-6	0.452	0.35	29.74	6.90	1.80	0.46	0.11
BUF	8-6	0.406	-	45.12	10.16	2.25	0.47	0.09
DAL	8-6	0.550	-	4.41	1.35	0.38	0.12	0.04
MIA	6-8	0.315	-	2.65	0.38	0.06	0.01	0.00
OAK	6-8	0.409	-	0.25	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00
GB	7-8	0.416	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	6-8	0.396	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	4-10	0.395	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-10	0.389	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-9	0.385	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-10	0.357	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-9	0.342	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	5-9	0.334	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-10	0.325	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	6-8	0.310	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-12	0.248	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	3-12	0.212	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-14	0.203	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia

2017-12-19

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 15, Final

Jacksonville over Philadelphia

Atlanta beat Tampa on Monday night, which eliminated Green Bay from the playoffs. Atlanta increased their chance of winning the AFC South by about 6 percentage points, but as of right now both wildcards are most likely to come from that division anyway. Detroit, Seattle, and Dallas are all a game behind Atlanta for the final wildcard, so the field of 6 in the NFC could be set after Week 16's Sunday games. The same could happen in the AFC after Monday. Most likely at least one position will be up for grabs, and even more likely, some valuable homefield advantage will still be at stake in Week 17.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
JAC	10-4	0.805	99.65	++	88.45	61.16	40.83	24.66
PHI	12-2	0.756	++	++	++	62.18	33.79	17.91
LAR	10-4	0.766	99.04	99.36	71.16	40.59	22.76	12.39
NE	11-3	0.713	++	++	94.15	52.78	25.19	12.07
MIN	11-3	0.708	++	++	95.65	45.91	22.03	10.39
NO	10-4	0.710	63.85	96.47	58.71	27.35	13.01	6.16
PIT	11-3	0.634	++	++	89.54	35.07	14.14	5.55
BAL	8-6	0.682	-	92.46	50.91	23.70	10.42	4.62
KC	8-6	0.610	97.04	97.04	46.60	18.19	6.54	2.41
CAR	10-4	0.593	18.83	92.33	36.52	12.28	4.37	1.54
ATL	9-5	0.577	17.32	76.42	27.12	8.62	3.00	1.02
LAC	7-7	0.632	2.96	27.83	11.03	4.55	1.84	0.72
DET	8-6	0.535	-	17.92	5.27	1.44	0.47	0.14
SEA	8-6	0.557	0.96	12.92	4.16	1.22	0.42	0.14
TEN	8-6	0.452	0.35	31.83	7.68	2.00	0.51	0.12
BUF	8-6	0.406	-	47.89	11.21	2.48	0.52	0.11
DAL	8-6	0.550	-	4.59	1.42	0.41	0.14	0.04
MIA	6-8	0.314	-	2.71	0.39	0.06	0.01	0.00
OAK	6-8	0.409	-	0.24	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00
GB	7-7	0.452	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	6-8	0.396	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	4-10	0.395	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-10	0.389	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-9	0.385	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-10	0.357	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-9	0.342	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	5-9	0.334	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-10	0.324	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	6-8	0.309	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-12	0.248	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	3-11	0.228	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-14	0.203	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia

2017-12-18

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 15, Sunday

Jacksonville over Philadelphia

I corrected my last couple of posts to reflect that really the projection has been Jacksonville over Philadelphia, not the other way around, for about a week. That's because Jacksonville's strength is higher, and so they'd be favored in that matchup, but I missed that because Philadelphia was the team overall most likely to win.

Jacksonville clinched at least a wildcard spot this week, while New England and Minnesota clinched their divisions, and Philadelphia clinched a first-round bye. I've got Philadelphia with a 97% chance of homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, challenged only by Minnesota. In the AFC, New England has a 66% chance, Pittsburgh is at 24%, and Jacksonville is now at 10%.

Eliminated this week were Arizona, Cincinnati, and the New York Jets. New England's division clinch eliminated Buffalo from its previously slim chance of winning it. Detroit and Green Bay were eliminated from the NFC North because Minnesota clinched, and Oakland lost to eliminate themselves from the AFC West. The most competitive remaining division in the NFC South, which could tighten up with an Atlanta win tonight, or become a 2-team race between New Orleans and Carolina if they lose.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
JAC	10-4	0.805	99.65	++	88.44	61.16	40.83	24.64
PHI	12-2	0.756	++	++	++	62.34	33.84	17.95
LAR	10-4	0.766	99.04	99.45	71.82	40.99	22.97	12.50
NE	11-3	0.713	++	++	94.15	52.78	25.19	12.06
MIN	11-3	0.708	++	++	95.67	45.74	21.96	10.36
NO	10-4	0.710	68.73	96.86	59.38	27.66	13.14	6.22
PIT	11-3	0.634	++	++	89.54	35.07	14.14	5.54
BAL	8-6	0.682	-	92.46	50.91	23.71	10.42	4.62
KC	8-6	0.610	97.04	97.04	46.60	18.18	6.53	2.41
CAR	10-4	0.593	19.71	93.28	36.95	12.44	4.42	1.56
ATL	8-5	0.571	11.57	60.90	21.09	6.57	2.26	0.75
LAC	7-7	0.632	2.96	27.82	11.03	4.55	1.84	0.72
DET	8-6	0.535	-	25.20	7.43	2.03	0.66	0.20
SEA	8-6	0.557	0.96	17.02	5.45	1.60	0.55	0.18
TEN	8-6	0.452	0.35	31.83	7.68	2.00	0.51	0.12
BUF	8-6	0.406	-	47.89	11.21	2.48	0.52	0.11
DAL	8-6	0.550	-	6.70	2.07	0.60	0.20	0.06
GB	7-7	0.452	-	0.58	0.14	0.03	0.01	0.00
MIA	6-8	0.314	-	2.70	0.39	0.06	0.01	0.00
OAK	6-8	0.409	-	0.24	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00
TB	4-9	0.401	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	6-8	0.396	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-10	0.389	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-9	0.385	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-10	0.357	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-9	0.342	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	5-9	0.334	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-10	0.324	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	6-8	0.309	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-12	0.248	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	3-11	0.228	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-14	0.203	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia

2017-12-17

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 16

Bowl games have begun, and with them several weeks of only slight tweaks to my ratings. Division II and Division III had their title games this weekend, so congratulations to Texas A&M-Commerce who beat West Florida, and Mount Union, who shut out last year's champions, Mary Hardin-Baylor. In the FCS, North Carolina A&T beat last year's Celebration Bowl champs Grambling State, to take their 3rd title in its 3-year existence. North Dakota State and Sam Houston State won their semifinals and will face off for the FCS title in January.

As for the FBS bowls, only one ranked team took part, #25 Boise State. They're usually ranked much higher in my system, as they were this year at #16, and they now rise to #9. Troy was unranked but #24 for me, and also won, reaching #15.

The subtle changes at the very bottom of the chart are always a curiosity to me, because those teams are nowhere near bowl-eligible, aren't even thinking of playing another game until next autumn, but still shift a little. This week Charlotte gained 4 spots to #123, just based on strength of schedule changes. Texas State also gained 1 spot up to #127, while San Jose State to lose 2 down to #128.

1	Georgia	12-1
2	Clemson	12-1
3	UCF	12-0
4	Wisconsin	12-1
5	Oklahoma	12-1
6	Alabama	11-1
7	USC	11-2
8	Ohio State	11-2
9	Boise State	11-3
10	Toledo	11-2
11	Miami	10-2
12	Auburn	10-3
13	Penn State	10-2
14	Washington	10-2
15	Troy	11-2
16	Florida Atlantic	10-3
17	Notre Dame	9-3
18	TCU	10-3
19	Memphis	10-2
20	San Diego State	10-2
21	Stanford	9-4
22	Michigan State	9-3
23	Washington State	9-3
24	Virginia Tech	9-3
25	LSU	9-3
26	Northwestern	9-3
27	NC State	8-4
28	Oklahoma State	9-3
29	South Carolina	8-4
30	North Texas	9-5
31	Army	9-3
32	South Florida	9-2
33	Mississippi State	8-4
34	Fresno State	9-4
35	Michigan	8-4
36	Louisville	8-4
37	Boston College	7-5
38	Iowa	7-5
39	Northern Illinois	8-4
40	Florida Intl	8-4
41	Wake Forest	7-5
42	Arizona State	7-5
43	Marshall	8-5
44	Texas A&M	7-5
45	Oregon	7-6
46	Central Michigan	8-4
47	Iowa State	7-5
48	Ohio	8-4
49	Kentucky	7-5
50	Southern Mississippi	8-4
51	SMU	7-5
52	Arizona	7-5
53	Houston	7-4
54	Kansas State	7-5
55	West Virginia	7-5
56	Missouri	7-5
57	Appalachian State	8-4
58	UCLA	6-6
59	UAB	8-4
60	Akron	7-6
61	Navy	6-6
62	Florida State	6-6
63	Texas Tech	6-6
64	Ole Miss	6-6
65	Duke	6-6
66	Purdue	6-6
67	Utah	6-6
68	Wyoming	7-5
69	Middle Tennessee	7-6
70	Virginia	6-6
71	Texas	6-6
72	Western Michigan	6-6
73	Georgia State	7-5
74	Temple	6-6
75	Georgia Tech	5-6
76	Colorado State	7-6
77	Buffalo	6-6
78	Louisiana Tech	6-6
79	Arkansas State	7-5
80	California	5-7
81	Tulane	5-7
82	UT San Antonio	6-5
83	Utah State	6-6
84	Vanderbilt	5-7
85	Pittsburgh	5-7
86	Indiana	5-7
87	Syracuse	4-8
88	Minnesota	5-7
89	Colorado	5-7
90	Florida	4-7
91	Western Kentucky	6-7
92	New Mexico State	6-6
93	Maryland	4-8
94	Air Force	5-7
95	Eastern Michigan	5-7
96	Miami (OH)	5-7
97	Old Dominion	5-7
98	Arkansas	4-8
99	Nebraska	4-8
100	Tennessee	4-8
101	Cincinnati	4-8
102	UNLV	5-7
103	Rutgers	4-8
104	Louisiana	5-7
105	Louisiana Monroe	4-8
106	North Carolina	3-9
107	Idaho	4-8
108	East Carolina	3-9
109	South Alabama	4-8
110	BYU	4-9
111	UMass	4-8
112	Connecticut	3-9
113	Nevada	3-9
114	New Mexico	3-9
115	Hawai'i	3-9
116	Bowling Green	2-10
117	Kent State	2-10
118	Coastal Carolina	3-9
119	Tulsa	2-10
120	Illinois	2-10
121	Georgia Southern	2-10
122	Ball State	2-10
123	Charlotte	1-11
124	Oregon State	1-11
125	Baylor	1-11
126	Kansas	1-11
127	Texas State	2-10
128	San Jose State	2-11
129	Rice	1-11
130	UTEP	0-12

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 15, Saturday

Jacksonville over Philadelphia

I used to really look forward to this time of year, when the NFL expanded to Saturdays. Now I'm not nearly as excited about it. I think that changed for 2 reasons. First, I started following college football more, so now I've got football available every Saturday. Second, Thursday games are now every week, eliminating the 5 off days we used to have between Monday night and Sunday morning.

They managed to schedule 3 teams still alive in the playoff race, which is about as good as random chance since 9 teams were out before yesterday. I don't know that they expected Kansas City vs Los Angeles to be a hugely important game in determining the winner of the AFC West, though. Combined, the teams had a 99.3% chance of winning the division, with Kansas City favored 54.6% to 44.7%, even though I had LA favored to win yesterday's game. Now that Kansas City has won, their chances have risen to 96.8%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	11-2	0.748	++	++	99.85	62.87	37.36	21.28
JAC	9-4	0.751	92.01	99.96	85.70	52.19	32.46	18.29
NE	10-3	0.707	99.38	99.95	88.64	48.46	26.41	13.42
LAR	9-4	0.717	73.86	91.82	60.65	32.96	17.20	9.12
MIN	10-3	0.656	99.05	99.84	91.34	43.78	19.08	8.81
PIT	11-2	0.640	++	++	95.02	47.09	20.18	8.76
NO	9-4	0.690	66.05	94.45	57.45	27.99	13.75	6.86
BAL	7-6	0.647	-	84.96	42.71	19.78	8.89	3.93
KC	8-6	0.610	96.84	96.84	52.61	21.96	8.84	3.56
CAR	9-4	0.580	19.67	78.31	34.89	12.55	4.72	1.82
SEA	8-5	0.628	26.14	45.59	21.46	8.72	3.77	1.63
ATL	8-5	0.571	14.28	56.76	22.91	7.87	2.95	1.11
LAC	7-7	0.632	3.03	13.63	6.16	2.77	1.21	0.51
TEN	8-5	0.456	7.99	67.02	20.50	5.77	1.57	0.42
DET	8-6	0.535	0.65	24.19	8.54	2.48	0.90	0.31
BUF	7-6	0.389	0.62	30.50	7.25	1.69	0.38	0.08
DAL	7-6	0.543	-	4.02	1.43	0.43	0.16	0.06
GB	7-6	0.465	0.30	5.03	1.48	0.35	0.10	0.03
OAK	6-7	0.416	0.13	1.69	0.42	0.11	0.03	0.01
MIA	6-7	0.331	-	5.27	0.95	0.18	0.03	0.01
NYJ	5-8	0.408	-	0.13	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
CIN	5-8	0.393	-	0.06	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
ARI	6-7	0.322	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
HOU	4-9	0.457	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	4-9	0.401	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	5-8	0.390	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-10	0.357	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	5-9	0.342	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	3-10	0.321	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-11	0.252	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-13	0.233	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	3-11	0.228	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia