Superbowl LI Projections Recap

Final result: New England 34, Atlanta 28

It wasn't exactly the dominating performance we expected, but New England won like I had them projected to for much of the season.

Above, I've graphed each team's chances week after week. I decided not to even try to make the colors good this year, though Atlanta and New England worked out alright. Usually I point out the most dire position of the season for the winner, but there really wasn't one for New England. They had a 4.18% chance after Week 1, and it just went up every week except for after their two losses. Now if we were looking at in-game stats, New England was as low as 0.5% on some of my favorite stats geeks' win probability charts, making their win considerably more outlandish than my puny graph would suggest.

I had New England as the AFC winner from Week 6 Monday onward, and also from Week 3 Thursday through Week 4 Thursday. Atlanta was a little behind Dallas in the NFC most of the way, until they made their way into the NFC title game.

The game had several historic numbers attached to it. It was the first to go overtime, which means we won't have to see that "No Superbowl has ever gone to overtime" graphic anymore. It blew away the point record for biggest comeback, previously 10, now 25, although the playoff record still stands at 28. And of course, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick each now have 5 Superbowl wins, a record for coaches and quarterbarcks.

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 40% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)

First to 45% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 17, Final)

First to 50% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Divisional Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: New England (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: Dallas (Week 16, Saturday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 17, Final] New England over Dallas
[Wildcard Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Wildcard Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Divisional Saturday] New England over Atlanta
[Divisional Sunday] New England over Atlanta
[Championship Sunday] New England over Atlanta