Tenets of Wilson

2013-12-16

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 15, Sunday

Seattle over Denver

Kansas City was the only other team to clinch a playoff spot this week, so 8 are still up for grabs, with 5 of those in the NFC. Denver remained the AFC favorite because both New England and Cincinnati lost, and Denver holds the tiebreaker over Kansas City. We could see Kansas City and Denver in the first round, since one will be a division winner, and one will be a wildcard.

Tennessee, Buffalo, Cleveland, Oakland, and Jacksonville were eliminated this week. I'm keeping the full grid in place for now because I think it's interesting that the Jets are the second worst team in the league, but are still clinging onto playoff hopes at 6-8.

No NFC teams were eliminated this week, even from division races. It would appear that Green Bay, Chicago, and Detroit all have playoff odds equal to their Division Championship odds, which means only one of them will make the playoffs this year, the NFC North champion. Dallas and Philadelphia will also each have to win the NFC East to make the playoffs. The corollary to those statements is that the wildcards will come from the NFC South and/or the NFC West. Seattle, San Francisco, or Arizona could be the team(s) from the West, and New Orleans and Carolina are still alive in the South. Therefore, only 1 of those 5 teams will miss the playoffs, and it won't be Seattle. My money's on Arizona, but we'll see.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	12-2	0.821	97.624	+	99.540	63.862	41.491	27.679
CAR	10-4	0.762	53.258	97.508	86.137	49.987	24.356	14.256
KC	11-3	0.758	14.235	+	75.014	45.631	28.759	13.960
SF	10-4	0.749	2.376	98.671	72.684	33.177	16.541	9.402
DEN	11-3	0.719	85.765	+	95.389	54.874	31.388	13.700
NO	10-4	0.678	46.742	99.102	81.075	35.973	13.355	6.466
CIN	9-5	0.662	87.439	91.891	66.117	34.962	15.672	5.855
NE	10-4	0.611	93.986	99.172	79.922	35.720	14.162	4.601
ARI	9-5	0.605	-	4.718	2.740	0.750	0.275	0.112
SD	7-7	0.564	-	1.388	0.600	0.210	0.078	0.022
DET	7-6	0.546	47.278	47.278	14.560	4.365	1.127	0.397
BAL	7-6	0.539	12.561	26.235	11.305	4.042	1.398	0.370
IND	9-5	0.538	+	+	37.744	13.923	4.892	1.296
MIA	8-6	0.531	6.014	80.727	33.716	10.590	3.638	0.942
PHI	8-6	0.528	58.145	58.145	17.039	4.848	1.189	0.401
CHI	8-6	0.525	31.824	31.824	9.397	2.721	0.645	0.215
DAL	7-7	0.514	41.855	41.855	11.419	2.955	0.730	0.237
STL	6-8	0.483	-	-	-	-	-	-
GB	7-6-1	0.483	20.899	20.899	5.410	1.362	0.290	0.087
PIT	6-8	0.478	-	0.505	0.179	0.046	0.014	0.003
TEN	5-9	0.444	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	4-9-1	0.397	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	5-9	0.393	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	4-10	0.355	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	4-10	0.355	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-10	0.354	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	4-10	0.321	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-9	0.286	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-11	0.286	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-12	0.266	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	6-8	0.263	-	0.082	0.014	0.002	0.000	0.000
JAC	4-10	0.188	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to clinch a Playoff berth: Seattle (Week 13, Final)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]

2013-12-15

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 16

Obviously there was no movement at the top, with the only FBS game pitting my #56 against #109 in the Army-Navy game. This is one of the least active weeks in NCAA football, with only 10 total games all the way down to Division III. So, just for fun, here are all of the changes this week, from top to bottom.

The top 41 remained in position, with scoring differences too small to place any team ahead or behind its adjacent teams.
Navy moved up from #56 to #42, because of their win.
Utah State moved from #49 to #51, behind Toledo, because Toledo played Navy.
South Alabama jumped ahead of Utah, to #74, again because South Alabama played Navy.
Troy swapped with Tennessee, at #78.
Indiana swapped with Rutgers, at #81.

The last 2 swaps didn't have immediately clear reasons. There were some common opponents, and opponents of opponents, etc., as that's how the algorithm works.

Army, interestingly, stayed right at #109.

As the bowls happen, we'll see teams slightly more toward the top start to shuffle around, possibly culminating in a 1-2 swap after the BCS Championship.

1	Florida State	13-0
2	Auburn	12-1
3	Michigan State	12-1
4	Ohio State	12-1
5	Stanford	11-2
6	Missouri	11-2
7	Alabama	11-1
8	Baylor	11-1
9	Northern Illinois	12-1
10	Arizona State	10-3
11	South Carolina	10-2
12	UCF	11-1
13	Clemson	10-2
14	Fresno State	11-1
15	Louisville	11-1
16	Oklahoma State	10-2
17	Oklahoma	10-2
18	Oregon	10-2
19	Duke	10-3
20	UCLA	9-3
21	LSU	9-3
22	Rice	10-3
23	USC	9-4
24	Bowling Green	10-3
25	Wisconsin	9-3
26	Ball State	10-2
27	Miami (FL)	9-3
28	Texas A&M	8-4
29	Georgia	8-4
30	Virginia Tech	8-4
31	Notre Dame	8-4
32	East Carolina	9-3
33	Brigham Young	8-4
34	Washington	8-4
35	Minnesota	8-4
36	Iowa	8-4
37	Houston	8-4
38	Texas	8-4
39	Nebraska	8-4
40	Marshall	9-4
41	Cincinnati	9-3
42	Navy	8-4
43	Arizona	7-5
44	Boise State	8-4
45	Michigan	7-5
46	Vanderbilt	8-4
47	Ole Miss	7-5
48	North Texas	8-4
49	Georgia Tech	7-5
50	Toledo	7-5
51	Utah State	8-5
52	Western Kentucky	8-4
53	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-4
54	Buffalo	8-4
55	Kansas State	7-5
56	Penn State	7-5
57	Boston College	7-5
58	Middle Tennessee	8-4
59	Mississippi State	6-6
60	Texas Tech	7-5
61	Tulane	7-5
62	UTSA	7-5
63	North Carolina	6-6
64	Maryland	7-5
65	Pittsburgh	6-6
66	San Diego State	7-5
67	Washington State	6-6
68	UNLV	7-5
69	Arkansas State	7-5
70	Oregon State	6-6
71	Ohio	7-5
72	Syracuse	6-6
73	San Jose State	6-6
74	South Alabama	6-6
75	Utah	5-7
76	Louisiana-Monroe	6-6
77	Colorado State	7-6
78	Troy	6-6
79	Tennessee	5-7
80	Florida Atlantic	6-6
81	Indiana	5-7
82	Rutgers	6-6
83	Northwestern	5-7
84	Central Michigan	6-6
85	Akron	5-7
86	Texas State	6-6
87	Florida	4-8
88	Colorado	4-8
89	Southern Methodist	5-7
90	TCU	4-8
91	Illinois	4-8
92	Wake Forest	4-8
93	Kent State	4-8
94	West Virginia	4-8
95	Nevada	4-8
96	Wyoming	5-7
97	Arkansas	3-9
98	North Carolina State	3-9
99	Iowa State	3-9
100	Kansas	3-9
101	Tulsa	3-9
102	Memphis	3-9
103	Connecticut	3-9
104	Virginia	2-10
105	Louisiana Tech	4-8
106	Kentucky	2-10
107	New Mexico	3-9
108	South Florida	2-10
109	Army	3-9
110	UAB	2-10
111	Eastern Michigan	2-10
112	Temple	2-10
113	California	1-11
114	New Mexico State	2-10
115	Purdue	1-11
116	Air Force	2-10
117	UTEP	2-10
118	Idaho	1-11
119	Massachusetts	1-11
120	Hawaii	1-11
121	Western Michigan	1-11
122	Florida International	1-11
123	Southern Miss	1-11
124	Miami (OH)	0-12

2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15

2013-12-13

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 15, Thursday

Seattle over Denver

Denver lost and did significant damage to their chances of being division winners, but are still favored to win the AFC and play in the Superbowl, where Peyton Manning may have a rough time in the cold.

San Diego nearly tripled their playoff chances to 5.9%, since they won a game they shouldn't have.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	11-2	0.778	95.334	+	98.849	59.057	36.230	22.267
CAR	9-4	0.744	20.019	95.388	73.706	39.884	20.931	11.941
KC	10-3	0.730	13.581	99.981	76.017	43.228	25.198	12.551
DEN	11-3	0.719	86.419	+	94.814	55.150	31.523	15.238
SF	9-4	0.715	4.666	95.647	66.462	29.879	14.873	7.945
NO	10-3	0.694	79.981	99.653	92.138	49.283	21.310	10.863
CIN	9-4	0.679	95.697	98.638	78.661	41.509	20.347	8.913
NE	10-3	0.617	97.790	99.642	82.631	37.667	15.401	5.741
ARI	8-5	0.603	-	7.097	3.962	1.289	0.496	0.204
SD	7-7	0.564	-	5.902	2.335	0.932	0.339	0.110
PHI	8-5	0.563	65.190	67.066	24.379	8.396	2.605	0.974
DET	7-6	0.546	61.349	61.387	19.301	6.096	1.877	0.671
BAL	7-6	0.539	4.303	38.461	15.147	5.247	1.835	0.555
MIA	7-6	0.522	2.210	55.777	21.136	7.012	2.333	0.674
DAL	7-6	0.516	34.810	35.016	10.345	3.027	0.848	0.280
CHI	7-6	0.513	24.044	24.115	7.048	2.088	0.572	0.188
IND	8-5	0.494	+	+	28.893	9.165	3.003	0.802
GB	6-6-1	0.481	14.607	14.630	3.810	0.999	0.257	0.077
STL	5-8	0.461	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	5-8	0.457	-	0.374	0.113	0.034	0.009	0.002
TEN	5-8	0.448	-	0.354	0.102	0.031	0.008	0.002
TB	4-9	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	4-9	0.380	-	0.015	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000
MIN	3-9-1	0.366	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-9	0.363	-	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
OAK	4-9	0.357	-	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
ATL	3-10	0.354	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-8	0.335	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-11	0.310	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-10	0.291	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	6-7	0.281	-	0.848	0.146	0.023	0.004	0.000
JAC	4-9	0.203	-	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to clinch a Playoff berth: Seattle (Week 13, Final)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

2013-12-12

eBay Wins #92

I don't quite know what happened here. These 2 cards opened at a penny each, and I bid, but no one else did before the auction closed. So I won them for a penny each. And the cards themselves are nearly senior citizens, almost 55 years old.

These are only the 2nd and 3rd 1959 cards in my collection. The corners are pretty sharp, and there are no creases, despite the look of one at Johnny Groth's hat level.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	2490
Total Spent	$43.75
Per Card	1.757 cents

2013-12-10

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 14, Final

Seattle over Denver

Two teams fighting for wildcards on Monday night kept the top intact. And the Chicago victory over Dallas helped the Rams case just slightly in getting Washington a higher pick, as the Washington strength of schedule will be slightly worse, since they played Chicago once but will end up playing Dallas twice. So in that respect, it was a good result for me.

Once your team's out, you've gotta do the draft-position watch, right?

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	11-2	0.778	95.337	+	98.850	59.060	36.236	22.240
CAR	9-4	0.744	20.021	95.386	73.703	39.882	20.929	11.920
KC	10-3	0.730	5.188	99.982	73.841	41.101	23.960	11.930
DEN	11-2	0.720	94.812	+	98.041	58.200	33.235	16.106
SF	9-4	0.715	4.663	95.647	66.456	29.874	14.871	7.927
NO	10-3	0.694	79.979	99.653	92.141	49.285	21.309	10.843
CIN	9-4	0.679	95.698	98.638	78.464	42.423	20.479	8.969
NE	10-3	0.617	97.790	99.643	81.943	36.648	15.006	5.598
ARI	8-5	0.603	-	7.099	3.963	1.291	0.497	0.204
PHI	8-5	0.563	65.186	67.063	24.377	8.393	2.605	0.971
SD	6-7	0.550	-	2.055	0.785	0.299	0.105	0.033
DET	7-6	0.546	61.343	61.382	19.302	6.100	1.877	0.670
BAL	7-6	0.539	4.302	42.950	16.929	5.652	2.008	0.608
MIA	7-6	0.522	2.210	54.285	20.700	6.550	2.219	0.641
DAL	7-6	0.516	34.814	35.020	10.349	3.027	0.848	0.280
CHI	7-6	0.513	24.045	24.116	7.049	2.087	0.572	0.188
IND	8-5	0.494	+	+	28.755	9.015	2.960	0.790
GB	6-6-1	0.481	14.612	14.635	3.811	1.000	0.256	0.077
STL	5-8	0.461	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	5-8	0.457	-	0.472	0.143	0.039	0.011	0.003
TEN	5-8	0.448	-	0.456	0.133	0.036	0.010	0.002
TB	4-9	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	4-9	0.380	-	0.044	0.011	0.002	0.000	0.000
MIN	3-9-1	0.366	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-9	0.363	-	0.017	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000
OAK	4-9	0.357	-	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
ATL	3-10	0.354	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-8	0.335	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-11	0.310	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-10	0.291	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	6-7	0.281	-	1.451	0.250	0.036	0.006	0.001
JAC	4-9	0.203	-	0.004	0.000	0.000	0.000	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to clinch a Playoff berth: Seattle (Week 13, Final)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

2013-12-09

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 14, Sunday

Seattle over Denver

Snow football is pretty great, isn't it?

Denver and Indianapolis are now officially in the playoffs, though Indy did it by virtue of clinching the division on a Tennessee loss and a clinched tiebreaker. They could wind up at 8-8 and with a worse record than at least one AFC wildcard team. On the other side of that Tennessee loss was Denver, who is also officially in now.

In the NFC, the teams in wildcard position are now both 9-4, eliminating any teams with 8 losses. This week, that included St. Louis, Minnesota, and New York. It didn't even occur to me that the Rams might be eliminated until I was watching the bonus coverage of the San Francisco-Seattle game, and realized that between Seattle, San Francisco, New Orleans, and Carolina, it was going to take 9 wins and a tiebreaker to make it.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	11-2	0.778	95.330	+	98.835	59.363	36.450	22.370
CAR	9-4	0.744	20.021	94.133	72.557	39.295	20.637	11.756
KC	10-3	0.730	5.193	99.982	73.833	41.092	23.956	11.942
DEN	11-2	0.719	94.807	+	98.040	58.193	33.227	16.119
SF	9-4	0.715	4.670	93.588	64.799	29.161	14.537	7.749
NO	10-3	0.694	79.979	99.310	91.857	49.201	21.310	10.842
CIN	9-4	0.679	95.691	98.636	78.451	42.413	20.474	8.976
NE	10-3	0.617	97.785	99.641	81.940	36.656	15.015	5.607
ARI	8-5	0.603	-	6.477	3.599	1.175	0.452	0.186
PHI	8-5	0.563	48.513	53.614	20.565	6.999	2.188	0.816
SD	6-7	0.550	-	2.054	0.784	0.298	0.105	0.033
DAL	7-5	0.546	51.487	52.808	17.832	5.783	1.738	0.621
DET	7-6	0.546	69.886	69.908	22.034	6.934	2.150	0.767
BAL	7-6	0.539	4.309	42.957	16.940	5.656	2.009	0.609
MIA	7-6	0.522	2.215	54.277	20.704	6.553	2.222	0.644
IND	8-5	0.494	+	+	28.764	9.025	2.965	0.794
CHI	6-6	0.484	12.488	12.515	3.342	0.900	0.230	0.070
GB	6-6-1	0.481	17.626	17.647	4.580	1.189	0.308	0.092
STL	5-8	0.461	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	5-8	0.457	-	0.472	0.143	0.039	0.011	0.003
TEN	5-8	0.448	-	0.458	0.133	0.036	0.010	0.002
TB	4-9	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	4-9	0.380	-	0.044	0.011	0.002	0.000	0.000
MIN	3-9-1	0.366	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-9	0.363	-	0.018	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000
OAK	4-9	0.357	-	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
ATL	3-10	0.354	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-8	0.335	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-11	0.310	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-10	0.291	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	6-7	0.281	-	1.454	0.251	0.036	0.006	0.001
JAC	4-9	0.203	-	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to clinch a Playoff berth: Seattle (Week 13, Final)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

2013-12-08

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 15

Oh, what could have been.

Florida State and Auburn have likely finished the end of the FBS regular season 1-2 in both my rankings and the BCS. I say likely because technically there's still an Army-Navy game to go, though the closest connection to either team appears to be that Navy played Duke, so a Navy loss would hurt Florida State's opponents' opponents record.

I ran a simulation with Missouri winning the SEC championship, and they got the #2 spot. I think it would have been tougher for them to make the actual championship game, but the voters seemed like they really wanted any excuse to punish Ohio State, and punish they did. As a result, the SEC has backed into a chance to make it 8 straight BCS titles to end the whole thing.

1	Florida State	13-0
2	Auburn	12-1
3	Michigan State	12-1
4	Ohio State	12-1
5	Stanford	11-2
6	Missouri	11-2
7	Alabama	11-1
8	Baylor	11-1
9	Northern Illinois	12-1
10	Arizona State	10-3
11	South Carolina	10-2
12	UCF	11-1
13	Clemson	10-2
14	Fresno State	11-1
15	Louisville	11-1
16	Oklahoma State	10-2
17	Oklahoma	10-2
18	Oregon	10-2
19	Duke	10-3
20	UCLA	9-3
21	LSU	9-3
22	Rice	10-3
23	USC	9-4
24	Bowling Green	10-3
25	Wisconsin	9-3
26	Ball State	10-2
27	Miami (FL)	9-3
28	Texas A&M	8-4
29	Georgia	8-4
30	Virginia Tech	8-4
31	Notre Dame	8-4
32	East Carolina	9-3
33	Brigham Young	8-4
34	Washington	8-4
35	Minnesota	8-4
36	Iowa	8-4
37	Houston	8-4
38	Texas	8-4
39	Nebraska	8-4
40	Marshall	9-4
41	Cincinnati	9-3
42	Arizona	7-5
43	Boise State	8-4
44	Michigan	7-5
45	Vanderbilt	8-4
46	Ole Miss	7-5
47	North Texas	8-4
48	Georgia Tech	7-5
49	Utah State	8-5
50	Toledo	7-5
51	Western Kentucky	8-4
52	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-4
53	Buffalo	8-4
54	Kansas State	7-5
55	Penn State	7-5
56	Navy	7-4
57	Boston College	7-5
58	Middle Tennessee	8-4
59	Mississippi State	6-6
60	Texas Tech	7-5
61	Tulane	7-5
62	UTSA	7-5
63	North Carolina	6-6
64	Maryland	7-5
65	Washington State	6-6
66	Pittsburgh	6-6
67	San Diego State	7-5
68	UNLV	7-5
69	Arkansas State	7-5
70	Oregon State	6-6
71	Ohio	7-5
72	Syracuse	6-6
73	San Jose State	6-6
74	Utah	5-7
75	South Alabama	6-6
76	Louisiana-Monroe	6-6
77	Colorado State	7-6
78	Tennessee	5-7
79	Troy	6-6
80	Florida Atlantic	6-6
81	Rutgers	6-6
82	Indiana	5-7
83	Northwestern	5-7
84	Central Michigan	6-6
85	Akron	5-7
86	Texas State	6-6
87	Florida	4-8
88	Colorado	4-8
89	Southern Methodist	5-7
90	TCU	4-8
91	Illinois	4-8
92	Wake Forest	4-8
93	Kent State	4-8
94	West Virginia	4-8
95	Nevada	4-8
96	Wyoming	5-7
97	Arkansas	3-9
98	North Carolina State	3-9
99	Iowa State	3-9
100	Kansas	3-9
101	Tulsa	3-9
102	Memphis	3-9
103	Connecticut	3-9
104	Virginia	2-10
105	Louisiana Tech	4-8
106	Kentucky	2-10
107	New Mexico	3-9
108	South Florida	2-10
109	Army	3-8
110	UAB	2-10
111	Eastern Michigan	2-10
112	Temple	2-10
113	California	1-11
114	New Mexico State	2-10
115	Purdue	1-11
116	Air Force	2-10
117	UTEP	2-10
118	Idaho	1-11
119	Massachusetts	1-11
120	Hawaii	1-11
121	Western Michigan	1-11
122	Florida International	1-11
123	Southern Miss	1-11
124	Miami (OH)	0-12

2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14

2013-12-06

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 14, Thursday

Seattle over Denver

The playoff picture can't change much when two teams in the running for the #1 draft pick play the only game of the day, as Jacksonville and Houston did last night. The only significant change is that Houston was officially eliminated.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	11-1	0.770	97.628	+	99.358	60.772	35.312	22.628
CAR	9-3	0.768	58.679	99.289	88.146	56.813	31.543	20.135
SF	8-4	0.706	2.372	87.237	58.362	25.053	12.115	6.814
DEN	10-2	0.694	91.133	99.999	95.557	57.227	33.037	14.905
KC	9-3	0.673	8.867	99.885	63.977	33.406	18.180	7.769
NO	9-3	0.661	41.321	96.793	75.076	33.268	13.444	6.872
CIN	8-4	0.659	92.752	97.137	70.480	38.022	19.414	8.017
NE	9-3	0.615	97.019	99.372	79.159	38.933	17.514	6.445
DET	7-5	0.571	85.477	85.702	31.821	10.367	3.408	1.424
ARI	7-5	0.560	-	6.395	3.243	0.925	0.310	0.126
DAL	7-5	0.546	65.750	67.316	23.787	7.136	2.213	0.872
PHI	7-5	0.537	34.214	41.929	15.728	4.558	1.368	0.526
BAL	6-6	0.533	6.534	36.974	15.393	5.543	2.149	0.634
IND	8-4	0.522	99.837	99.852	49.508	18.367	6.689	1.919
MIA	6-6	0.509	2.976	45.231	18.265	6.138	2.232	0.617
SD	5-7	0.504	-	2.277	0.881	0.307	0.108	0.030
STL	5-7	0.502	-	0.064	0.029	0.007	0.002	0.001
TEN	5-7	0.494	0.163	6.505	2.464	0.829	0.285	0.075
CHI	6-6	0.484	7.545	7.964	2.373	0.598	0.155	0.052
GB	5-6-1	0.479	6.975	7.237	2.059	0.501	0.131	0.043
PIT	5-7	0.469	0.711	9.525	3.406	1.018	0.337	0.083
BUF	4-8	0.422	-	1.730	0.559	0.139	0.041	0.009
NYG	5-7	0.377	0.036	0.070	0.019	0.003	0.001	0.000
OAK	4-8	0.372	-	0.518	0.139	0.033	0.008	0.001
MIN	3-8-1	0.372	0.003	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
CLE	4-8	0.365	0.002	0.323	0.088	0.018	0.004	0.001
ATL	3-9	0.358	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	3-9	0.354	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-9	0.343	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-11	0.310	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-7	0.263	0.005	0.654	0.122	0.018	0.003	0.000
JAC	4-9	0.204	-	0.018	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to clinch a Playoff berth: Seattle (Week 13, Final)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

2013-12-05

A Meta-Contest Win

Maybe this is more of a Contest Meta-Win. Why's that? Because I won third prize in Card Hobbyist's July Contest. The prize wasn't cards, but 3 entries in his August Contest, which I then won. As a result, I won the team of my choice in his 2013 Score Football box break. I chose the Rams, naturally, and here's who showed up.

2013 Score
#174 Lance Kendricks
#176 Isaiah Pead
#177 Daryl Richardson
#178 James Laurinaitis

I got both Rams RBs from the set, but neither of those guys made it very far into the season, especially once Zac Stacy came along. And I love that Lance Kendricks card with him in the throwback uniform.

2013 Score
#172 Sam Bradford
#173 Jared Cook
#175 Chris Givens

I mostly collect baseball cards, so the card of Jared Cook in a Titans uniform caught me off guard. Topps usually edits photos to show the new uniform if the player hasn't yet appeared in it.

2013 Score
Future Franchise #324 Chris Givens
Franchise #292 Sam Bradford
Airmail #246 Sam Bradford

At first I thought that was the same Chris Givens photo, but his left arm is in a slightly different position. The background certainly looks the same, so I'd say these were a fraction of a second apart. I also got 2 more Bradfords.

2013 Score - 2013 Rookies
#428 Tavon Austin
#335 Alec Ogletree

Here we have the Rams 2 first-round picks from the 2013 draft, both of whom have looked very promising so far.

2013 Score - Scorecard Parallel
#172 Sam Bradford

As far as I can tell, this parallel is only different from the original due to the shiny foil "Scorecard" printed on the right side of the photo. But still, another Bradford!

2013 Score - Hot Rookies
#8 Stedman Bailey
#30 Tavon Austin

More rookie cards, but actual insert cards this time. I'd like to know how the 00 photos came about, whether they're posed, manipulated, or there was really some workout where the rookies had double zero jerseys. Here we have our 2 West Virginia wide receivers, Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey.

Thanks to Patrick from The Card Hobbyist for the contest and the Rams cards.

2013-12-03

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 13, Final

Seattle over Denver

As expected, Seattle reclaimed the NFC lead. They also secured a playoff berth in the process. The only elimination last night was Arizona from the NFC West title. Even if they can win out and tie Seattle at 11-5, Seattle would take the division on the 4th tiebreaker, Conference Record (Head To Head, Division, and Common Games would all be a tie). In the case of a 3-way tie including San Francisco, they would earn a 4-2 division record to Seattle and Arizona's 3-3, giving them the title.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	11-1	0.770	97.627	+	99.358	60.773	35.318	22.633
CAR	9-3	0.768	58.676	99.289	88.147	56.816	31.541	20.135
SF	8-4	0.706	2.373	87.234	58.363	25.053	12.114	6.813
DEN	10-2	0.694	90.969	99.999	95.486	57.174	33.001	14.888
KC	9-3	0.673	9.031	99.885	64.060	33.459	18.207	7.781
NO	9-3	0.661	41.324	96.792	75.074	33.266	13.441	6.870
CIN	8-4	0.659	92.745	97.132	70.523	38.036	19.425	8.022
NE	9-3	0.615	97.020	99.372	79.250	38.968	17.530	6.450
DET	7-5	0.571	85.474	85.699	31.816	10.364	3.407	1.424
ARI	7-5	0.560	-	6.396	3.244	0.924	0.310	0.126
DAL	7-5	0.546	65.747	67.315	23.787	7.138	2.214	0.872
PHI	7-5	0.537	34.216	41.934	15.730	4.557	1.366	0.526
BAL	6-6	0.533	6.542	37.091	15.445	5.569	2.158	0.637
IND	8-4	0.522	99.832	99.848	49.354	18.305	6.669	1.912
MIA	6-6	0.509	2.975	45.188	18.246	6.135	2.228	0.616
SD	5-7	0.504	-	2.286	0.884	0.309	0.108	0.030
STL	5-7	0.502	-	0.064	0.029	0.007	0.002	0.001
TEN	5-7	0.494	0.168	6.376	2.414	0.812	0.279	0.074
CHI	6-6	0.484	7.547	7.965	2.374	0.598	0.155	0.052
GB	5-6-1	0.479	6.977	7.239	2.059	0.500	0.131	0.044
PIT	5-7	0.469	0.710	9.587	3.428	1.025	0.339	0.083
BUF	4-8	0.422	-	1.725	0.558	0.139	0.041	0.009
NYG	5-7	0.377	0.036	0.070	0.019	0.003	0.001	0.000
OAK	4-8	0.372	-	0.519	0.139	0.034	0.008	0.001
MIN	3-8-1	0.372	0.003	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
CLE	4-8	0.365	0.002	0.327	0.089	0.019	0.005	0.001
ATL	3-9	0.358	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	3-9	0.354	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-9	0.343	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-10	0.323	-	0.000	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-7	0.263	0.005	0.659	0.123	0.018	0.003	0.000
JAC	3-9	0.205	-	0.007	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to clinch a Playoff berth: Seattle (Week 13, Final)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

2013-12-02

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 13, Sunday

Carolina over Denver

For the day, Carolina is in the best position in the NFC. That may change whichever team wins Monday night, however, as both Seattle and New Orleans are also near the top.

Denver asserted its AFC West dominance, and Kansas City has now lost 3 in a row. That puts Denver at over 90% likely of winning their division, and they've cracked the 99.999% mark in playoff chances. Yet, it's still mathematically possible for 10-2 Denver to miss the playoffs, or 2-10 Houston to make it, though probably not both.

Tampa Bay and Washington were both officially eliminated by their losses and other teams' wins, and San Diego, St. Louis, Buffalo, Houston, and Jacksonville can no longer be division winners. Here's hoping Washington keeps careening downwards, as St. Louis will get their first round pick as part of the RGIII deal. If the standings are to be believed, Washington holds the anti-tiebreaker over the other 3-9 teams, and so is currently in position to get the #2 pick overall. Let's go Houston. And Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Jacksonville for good measure.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CAR	9-3	0.768	47.163	99.033	84.919	52.660	30.773	19.646
SEA	10-1	0.730	92.021	99.826	97.175	53.934	28.011	16.537
SF	8-4	0.706	7.908	87.646	60.263	29.230	13.914	7.826
NO	9-2	0.700	52.837	98.626	82.721	40.878	19.522	10.843
DEN	10-2	0.694	90.971	99.999	95.486	57.179	33.006	15.421
KC	9-3	0.673	9.029	99.885	64.057	33.451	18.201	8.062
CIN	8-4	0.659	92.749	97.136	70.530	38.043	19.428	8.324
NE	9-3	0.615	97.021	99.373	79.249	38.967	17.528	6.709
DET	7-5	0.571	85.476	85.643	30.423	9.950	3.494	1.460
ARI	7-5	0.560	0.071	6.510	3.315	1.083	0.358	0.146
DAL	7-5	0.546	65.742	67.158	22.596	6.905	2.274	0.896
PHI	7-5	0.537	34.214	40.401	14.433	4.308	1.363	0.525
BAL	6-6	0.533	6.538	37.089	15.449	5.568	2.158	0.664
IND	8-4	0.522	99.832	99.848	49.352	18.307	6.669	1.996
MIA	6-6	0.509	2.974	45.187	18.244	6.132	2.228	0.642
SD	5-7	0.504	-	2.286	0.885	0.309	0.108	0.031
STL	5-7	0.502	-	0.029	0.013	0.003	0.001	0.000
TEN	5-7	0.494	0.168	6.373	2.412	0.811	0.279	0.077
CHI	6-6	0.484	7.545	7.880	2.218	0.566	0.156	0.053
GB	5-6-1	0.479	6.976	7.170	1.903	0.480	0.133	0.044
PIT	5-7	0.469	0.710	9.592	3.428	1.024	0.339	0.087
BUF	4-8	0.422	-	1.723	0.556	0.139	0.041	0.009
NYG	5-7	0.377	0.043	0.076	0.019	0.004	0.001	0.000
OAK	4-8	0.372	-	0.518	0.139	0.034	0.008	0.002
MIN	3-8-1	0.372	0.003	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
CLE	4-8	0.365	0.002	0.326	0.088	0.018	0.005	0.001
ATL	3-9	0.358	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	3-9	0.354	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-9	0.343	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-10	0.323	-	0.000	0.000	-	-	-
NYJ	5-7	0.263	0.005	0.659	0.122	0.018	0.003	0.000
JAC	3-9	0.205	-	0.007	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

2013-12-01

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 14

It's getting slightly less crowded at the top. When Alabama lost to Auburn, it moved them from 2-7 to 4-5 in the rankings, with Auburn on top. Florida State and Ohio State both won to go 12-0 in their regular season, with conference championships yet to play. Missouri beat a respectable Texas A&M team to jump up to #3. Northern Illinois lost 2 places, and is now #6. That's because their win was over the pitifully ranked #121 Western Michigan. Strength of Schedule will get you every time.

So the top 4 teams will play next week, including #3 Missouri vs #4 Auburn for the SEC. However, both Florida State (#15 Duke) and Ohio State (#8 Michigan State) play good teams as well, so they should retain their top-two positioning with wins. If the real polls go the same way, that would end the SEC streak of BCS titles at 7 before the game is even played.

1	Florida State	12-0
2	Ohio State	12-0
3	Missouri	11-1
4	Auburn	11-1
5	Alabama	11-1
6	Northern Illinois	12-0
7	Arizona State	10-2
8	Michigan State	11-1
9	South Carolina	10-2
10	Stanford	10-2
11	Clemson	10-2
12	Oklahoma State	10-1
13	Baylor	10-1
14	Oregon	10-2
15	Duke	10-2
16	UCF	10-1
17	UCLA	9-3
18	Fresno State	10-1
19	LSU	9-3
20	Louisville	10-1
21	USC	9-4
22	Oklahoma	9-2
23	Wisconsin	9-3
24	Ball State	10-2
25	Miami (FL)	9-3
26	Texas A&M	8-4
27	Georgia	8-4
28	Virginia Tech	8-4
29	Notre Dame	8-4
30	East Carolina	9-3
31	Brigham Young	8-4
32	Washington	8-4
33	Minnesota	8-4
34	Iowa	8-4
35	Rice	9-3
36	Texas	8-3
37	Marshall	9-3
38	Nebraska	8-4
39	Bowling Green	9-3
40	Houston	8-4
41	Cincinnati	9-2
42	Arizona	7-5
43	Boise State	8-4
44	Vanderbilt	8-4
45	Michigan	7-5
46	Ole Miss	7-5
47	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-3
48	North Texas	8-4
49	Georgia Tech	7-5
50	Utah State	8-4
51	Toledo	7-5
52	Western Kentucky	8-4
53	Kansas State	7-5
54	Penn State	7-5
55	Buffalo	8-4
56	Boston College	7-5
57	Navy	7-4
58	Middle Tennessee	8-4
59	Mississippi State	6-6
60	Texas Tech	7-5
61	Tulane	7-5
62	UTSA	7-5
63	North Carolina	6-6
64	Maryland	7-5
65	Washington State	6-6
66	Pittsburgh	6-6
67	San Diego State	7-5
68	UNLV	7-5
69	Oregon State	6-6
70	Arkansas State	7-5
71	Syracuse	6-6
72	Ohio	7-5
73	San Jose State	6-6
74	Utah	5-7
75	Colorado State	7-6
76	Louisiana-Monroe	6-6
77	Florida Atlantic	6-6
78	Tennessee	5-7
79	Troy	6-6
80	Indiana	5-7
81	Northwestern	5-7
82	Central Michigan	6-6
83	Akron	5-7
84	Texas State	6-6
85	South Alabama	5-6
86	Rutgers	5-6
87	Colorado	4-8
88	Florida	4-8
89	Southern Methodist	5-6
90	TCU	4-8
91	Illinois	4-8
92	Wake Forest	4-8
93	Nevada	4-8
94	West Virginia	4-8
95	Wyoming	5-7
96	Kent State	4-8
97	Arkansas	3-9
98	Memphis	3-8
99	North Carolina State	3-9
100	Iowa State	3-9
101	Kansas	3-9
102	Tulsa	3-9
103	Virginia	2-10
104	South Florida	2-9
105	Louisiana Tech	4-8
106	Kentucky	2-10
107	New Mexico	3-9
108	Connecticut	2-9
109	Army	3-8
110	UAB	2-10
111	Eastern Michigan	2-10
112	California	1-11
113	New Mexico State	2-10
114	Temple	2-10
115	Purdue	1-11
116	Air Force	2-10
117	UTEP	2-10
118	Idaho	1-11
119	Massachusetts	1-11
120	Hawaii	1-11
121	Western Michigan	1-11
122	Florida International	1-11
123	Southern Miss	1-11
124	Miami (OH)	0-12

2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13