Tenets of Wilson

2016-12-18

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 16

We had 5 bowls yesterday, so the Power Rankings have shifted just a little bit. My top 6 remained steady, but San Diego State jumped up to #7 from #17 by beating Houston. All the ties from last week are now untied, due to the subtle shifts in strength of schedule that cascade out to every active team's opponents, and their opponents, etc. It's a little odd to put out power rankings in the midst of bowl season, since the whole thing could be considered one final "week" of college football, but I don't want to wait until January to see where everyone lands.

Aside from the 5 FBS bowl games, there were 5 lower division games. The Celebration Bowl, considered the HBCU championship, was won by Grambling State. North Dakota State, who won the last 5 FCS titles, lost in one of the semifinals. The remaining teams, James Madison and Youngstown State, last won in 2004 and 1997, respectively. Division II was won by Northwest Missouri State, and Division III was won by Mary Hardin-Baylor.

1	Alabama	13-0
2	Clemson	12-1
3	Western Michigan	13-0
4	Washington	12-1
5	Ohio State	11-1
6	Penn State	11-2
7	San Diego State	11-3
8	Michigan	10-2
9	Boise State	10-2
10	Oklahoma	10-2
11	West Virginia	10-2
12	Colorado	10-3
13	Wisconsin	10-3
14	South Florida	10-2
15	Florida State	9-3
16	Appalachian State	10-3
17	Temple	10-3
18	Western Kentucky	10-3
19	USC	9-3
20	Navy	9-4
21	Oklahoma State	9-3
22	Stanford	9-3
23	Virginia Tech	9-4
24	Nebraska	9-3
25	Louisville	9-3
26	Tulsa	9-3
27	Houston	9-4
28	Tennessee	8-4
29	Toledo	9-4
30	Air Force	9-3
31	North Carolina	8-4
32	Auburn	8-4
33	Pittsburgh	8-4
34	Florida	8-4
35	Georgia Tech	8-4
36	Washington State	8-4
37	New Mexico	9-4
38	Troy	9-3
39	Texas A&M	8-4
40	Wyoming	8-5
41	Old Dominion	9-3
42	Iowa	8-4
43	Miami	8-4
44	LSU	7-4
45	Utah	8-4
46	Memphis	8-4
47	Minnesota	8-4
48	Kansas State	8-4
49	BYU	8-4
50	Idaho	8-4
51	Georgia	7-5
52	Arkansas State	8-5
53	Louisiana Tech	8-5
54	Colorado State	7-5
55	Arkansas	7-5
56	Middle Tennessee	8-4
57	Kentucky	7-5
58	Ohio	8-5
59	Vanderbilt	6-6
60	Eastern Michigan	7-5
61	NC State	6-6
62	Southern Mississippi	7-6
63	Northwestern	6-6
64	TCU	6-6
65	Army	7-5
66	Ole Miss	5-7
67	South Carolina	6-6
68	Boston College	6-6
69	Wake Forest	6-6
70	UCF	6-7
71	Indiana	6-6
72	Louisiana Lafayette	6-7
73	Maryland	6-6
74	South Alabama	6-6
75	Texas San Antonio	6-7
76	Central Michigan	6-6
77	Mississippi State	5-7
78	Baylor	6-6
79	Hawai'i	6-7
80	SMU	5-7
81	California	5-7
82	Miami (OH)	6-6
83	Arizona State	5-7
84	Northern Illinois	5-7
85	Texas Tech	5-7
86	Georgia Southern	5-7
87	Texas	5-7
88	North Texas	5-7
89	Akron	5-7
90	Syracuse	4-8
91	Missouri	4-8
92	Duke	4-8
93	UCLA	4-8
94	Oregon	4-8
95	Oregon State	4-8
96	Louisiana Monroe	4-8
97	Tulane	4-8
98	Nevada	5-7
99	Notre Dame	4-8
100	Cincinnati	4-8
101	Bowling Green	4-8
102	San Jose State	4-8
103	Arizona	3-9
104	UNLV	4-8
105	Utah State	3-9
106	Charlotte	4-8
107	Florida Intl	4-8
108	Ball State	4-8
109	UTEP	4-8
110	New Mexico State	3-9
111	Illinois	3-9
112	East Carolina	3-9
113	Iowa State	3-9
114	Georgia State	3-9
115	Michigan State	3-9
116	Purdue	3-9
117	Kent State	3-9
118	Connecticut	3-9
119	Rice	3-9
120	Marshall	3-9
121	Virginia	2-10
122	Florida Atlantic	3-9
123	Rutgers	2-10
124	Massachusetts	2-10
125	Kansas	2-10
126	Texas State	2-10
127	Buffalo	2-10
128	Fresno State	1-11

2016 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas
Week 3 Texas A&M
Week 4 Texas A&M
Week 5 Tennessee
Week 6 Texas A&M
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Alabama
Week 10 Alabama
Week 11 Alabama
Week 12 Alabama
Week 13 Alabama
Week 14 Alabama
Week 15 Alabama

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 15, Saturday

New England over Dallas

In my head, I thought the NFL had moved away from Saturday games except when there are holiday conflicts, like Christmas being on a Sunday this year. A quick check proves that not to be true, since there was a single Saturday game in Week 15 and 16 last year.

Normally I post these numbers the day after gameday at 10pm, but I've got college football numbers to post tonight. And, this way the numbers are up before today's games. I've got a system here, and the NFL's messing with it.

Miami stayed in the race for the AFC East with a win over the Jets, but New England can clinch today with a win. Miami's win eliminated 5-8 San Diego, because now it will take at least 9 wins to make the playoffs as an AFC wildcard this year. Kansas City and Oakland can also clinch playoff spots with wins today. Dallas, Detroit, and the Giants need some help, and Arizona, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Cincinnati, and Carolina are all on the brink of elimination, and would be out with a loss today, or wins by Tampa and Atlanta, and possibly some other combinations.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	11-2	0.725	99.41	99.91	99.74	66.91	43.26	25.73
DAL	11-2	0.698	95.81	++	97.99	63.30	37.69	20.82
SEA	9-4-1	0.649	++	++	84.76	48.04	24.23	12.07
ATL	8-5	0.626	76.01	89.93	59.06	28.67	14.00	6.64
PIT	8-5	0.625	72.35	80.57	47.51	24.09	11.19	5.42
DEN	8-5	0.619	1.28	44.14	24.55	10.38	5.22	2.49
KC	10-3	0.600	67.40	98.66	83.50	42.13	18.03	8.27
BAL	7-6	0.597	27.39	33.41	17.24	7.96	3.53	1.61
MIN	7-6	0.582	3.40	21.88	10.81	4.33	1.99	0.85
OAK	10-3	0.567	31.32	98.47	69.51	30.10	12.17	5.18
DET	9-4	0.558	79.06	86.79	56.28	23.58	9.57	3.89
BUF	6-7	0.546	-	2.14	0.93	0.30	0.14	0.06
ARI	5-7-1	0.546	-	0.10	0.04	0.01	0.01	0.00
GB	7-6	0.539	17.53	25.41	12.26	4.49	1.81	0.71
PHI	5-8	0.539	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
TEN	7-6	0.529	45.78	46.78	21.17	7.79	2.97	1.15
NYG	9-4	0.527	4.19	78.92	36.88	13.26	5.25	1.98
WAS	7-5-1	0.524	-	42.75	18.35	6.33	2.56	0.96
NO	5-8	0.512	0.15	0.16	0.08	0.03	0.01	0.00
SD	5-8	0.505	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	9-5	0.502	0.59	40.70	17.40	5.46	2.14	0.78
CIN	5-7-1	0.498	0.26	0.26	0.11	0.04	0.01	0.01
TB	8-5	0.494	23.73	53.94	23.44	7.93	2.88	1.00
IND	6-7	0.491	6.04	6.23	2.57	0.83	0.29	0.10
CAR	5-8	0.452	0.11	0.12	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00
HOU	7-6	0.394	48.18	48.73	15.77	4.02	1.05	0.28
CHI	3-10	0.344	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-11	0.309	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-10	0.270	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	1-12	0.263	-	-	-	-	-	-
LA	4-10	0.219	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-13	0.212	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Thursday] New England over Dallas

2016-12-16

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 15, Thursday

New England over Dallas

Seattle clinched the NFC West, eliminating Arizona from that same division, but overall very little changed when they beat Los Angeles. LA is approaching the strength level of 0-13 Cleveland, based on point scored and allowed. They've just clustered their points a little better, winning 4 times toward the beginning of the season.

We have one Saturday game this week, Miami at New York. The Jets are already out completely. Miami would hand New England the division a day early with a loss or tie, but would still remain alive for a wildcard spot.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	11-2	0.725	99.64	99.95	99.83	66.76	43.13	25.65
DAL	11-2	0.698	95.81	++	97.99	63.30	37.69	20.80
SEA	9-4-1	0.649	++	++	84.76	48.04	24.22	12.05
ATL	8-5	0.626	76.01	89.92	59.06	28.67	14.00	6.64
PIT	8-5	0.625	72.35	83.10	48.87	24.64	11.47	5.55
DEN	8-5	0.619	1.28	49.42	27.30	11.53	5.81	2.77
KC	10-3	0.600	67.40	99.07	83.95	42.34	18.07	8.28
BAL	7-6	0.597	27.39	36.74	18.77	8.53	3.82	1.74
MIN	7-6	0.582	3.40	21.88	10.81	4.33	1.99	0.85
OAK	10-3	0.567	31.32	98.92	69.75	30.15	12.16	5.17
DET	9-4	0.558	79.06	86.79	56.28	23.58	9.57	3.88
BUF	6-7	0.546	-	2.34	1.02	0.33	0.15	0.06
ARI	5-7-1	0.546	-	0.10	0.04	0.01	0.01	0.00
GB	7-6	0.539	17.54	25.41	12.26	4.49	1.81	0.70
PHI	5-8	0.539	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
TEN	7-6	0.529	45.78	47.57	21.48	7.88	3.00	1.17
NYG	9-4	0.527	4.19	78.92	36.88	13.26	5.25	1.98
WAS	7-5-1	0.524	-	42.75	18.35	6.33	2.56	0.96
NO	5-8	0.512	0.15	0.16	0.08	0.03	0.01	0.00
SD	5-8	0.505	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CIN	5-7-1	0.498	0.26	0.31	0.13	0.04	0.02	0.01
TB	8-5	0.494	23.73	53.94	23.44	7.93	2.88	1.00
IND	6-7	0.491	6.04	6.36	2.62	0.85	0.30	0.10
MIA	8-5	0.458	0.36	27.23	10.46	2.91	1.03	0.33
CAR	5-8	0.452	0.11	0.12	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00
HOU	7-6	0.394	48.18	48.99	15.82	4.03	1.05	0.28
CHI	3-10	0.344	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-11	0.309	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-9	0.307	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	1-12	0.263	-	-	-	-	-	-
LA	4-10	0.219	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-13	0.212	-	-	-	-	-	-

2016-12-15

Bowl Pick 'Em Contest Winnings, Part XXVII

College football ~~will be here again before we know it~~ IS HERE, so I've got to get my prize from last season's Bowl Pick 'Em contest at Cards on Cards posted! My prize for a second place tie was a very generously sized box of cards, so I felt a bit overwhelmed even sorting through them. I finally sorted them out by player, and, as usual, I'll plan to post them all eventually, but I might quit halfway through, we'll see.

Part I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII XVIII XIX XX
XXI XXII XXIII XXIV XXV XXVI

There's another randomish collection of Cardinals cards today, some draft picks, some 2000 Topps, and some Eli Marrero. To enter this year's Bowl Pick 'Em, go sign up at Cards on Cards before Saturday's bowl games begin.

1997 Bowman #409 Brent Butler
1997 Bowman #430 Adam Kennedy
1997 Bowman - Rookie of the Year Favorites #ROY12 Eli Marrero
1998 Skybox Dugout Axcess #92 Eli Marrero
1999 Upper Deck MVP #174 Eli Marrero
2000 Topps #68 Eli Marrero
2000 Topps #190 Eric Davis (x2)
2000 Topps #192 Joe McEwing
2000 Topps #212 Chance Caple/Jason Jennings

Brent Butler never played in the majors for the Cardinals, having been traded to Colorado in the deal that brought Darryl Kile to St. Louis. Adam Kennedy played for the Cardinals two different times, but he really had his best years in Anaheim.

1999 Fleer Ultra #45 Eli Marrero
1999 Upper Deck UD Choice #132 Eli Marrero

Eli Marrero arrived in 1997, and looked like he could bloom into a star catcher for the Cardinals, but in 2002 they got Mike Matheny, and tried to move Eli more often to the outfield, and infield a little. He was eventually traded to the Braves with J.D. Drew to acquire Adam Wainwright.

2016-12-13

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 14, Final

New England over Dallas

New England beat Baltimore on Monday night, but just by a touchdown. As I mentioned yesterday, neither team had a chance to clinch last night, and I'm pretty sure no one would have been eliminated if Baltimore had won or tied. I kind of like having things unsettled late into the season, so I'll be rooting for the 5-win teams next week, and against the league leaders. I guess that means I'll be rooting for the Rams and their interim head coach to pull off the upset against Seattle on Thursday, though I don't find that very likely.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	11-2	0.725	99.64	99.95	99.83	66.77	43.14	26.14
DAL	11-2	0.698	95.81	++	98.06	63.72	39.56	21.83
ATL	8-5	0.626	76.05	89.94	61.34	31.82	15.75	7.47
PIT	8-5	0.625	72.36	83.11	48.88	24.64	11.47	5.69
DEN	8-5	0.619	1.28	49.42	27.30	11.53	5.80	2.84
KC	10-3	0.600	67.40	99.07	83.95	42.34	18.07	8.50
SEA	8-4-1	0.599	99.32	99.32	77.02	39.29	17.83	7.95
BAL	7-6	0.597	27.39	36.74	18.77	8.53	3.82	1.78
MIN	7-6	0.582	3.40	21.88	11.05	4.53	2.16	0.93
OAK	10-3	0.567	31.32	98.92	69.75	30.15	12.16	5.32
DET	9-4	0.558	79.06	86.81	58.91	26.37	10.86	4.41
BUF	6-7	0.546	-	2.34	1.02	0.33	0.15	0.06
ARI	5-7-1	0.546	0.68	0.78	0.39	0.16	0.07	0.03
GB	7-6	0.539	17.53	25.41	12.54	4.85	2.01	0.78
PHI	5-8	0.539	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
TEN	7-6	0.529	45.79	47.58	21.48	7.88	3.00	1.20
NYG	9-4	0.527	4.19	78.92	37.39	13.91	5.71	2.15
WAS	7-5-1	0.524	-	42.75	18.78	6.61	2.79	1.04
NO	5-8	0.512	0.15	0.16	0.08	0.03	0.01	0.00
SD	5-8	0.505	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CIN	5-7-1	0.498	0.26	0.31	0.13	0.04	0.02	0.01
TB	8-5	0.494	23.70	53.90	24.41	8.71	3.24	1.12
IND	6-7	0.491	6.04	6.36	2.62	0.85	0.29	0.11
MIA	8-5	0.458	0.36	27.22	10.46	2.91	1.02	0.34
CAR	5-8	0.452	0.11	0.12	0.05	0.02	0.01	0.00
HOU	7-6	0.394	48.17	48.98	15.82	4.03	1.05	0.29
CHI	3-10	0.344	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-11	0.309	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-9	0.307	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	1-12	0.262	-	-	-	-	-	-
LA	4-9	0.262	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-13	0.212	-	-	-	-	-	-

2016-12-12

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 14, Sunday

New England over Dallas

The big news this week is that Dallas lost to the Giants, the only team to beat them this year, and now they've done it twice. Dallas is still in the top position in the NFC, a full 2 games ahead of Detroit and...the Giants. Of course it's not quite as good as a 2-game lead in their division, because they would definitely lose in the first tiebreaker, which is head to head record.

No team clinched a playoff spot this Sunday, and no one will after tonight's New England - Baltimore game either. The AFC has a pretty solid middle group of teams right now, and the teams at the top aren't completely running away with things, so we'll have to wait until next week for the next clinch.

Buffalo was eliminated from their division, but is still alive for a wildcard spot. LA and Chicago were officially completely eliminated this week, just in time for Jeff Fisher to tie the record for all time losses by a head coach. He was fired today though, so he won't get a chance to break the record this Thursday when the Rams play in Seattle.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-2	0.713	98.13	99.48	98.70	64.37	40.73	24.15
DAL	11-2	0.698	95.81	++	98.06	63.72	39.56	22.16
ATL	8-5	0.626	76.05	89.94	61.35	31.82	15.76	7.60
PIT	8-5	0.625	60.74	78.40	45.44	22.63	10.91	5.42
DEN	8-5	0.619	1.31	43.48	24.06	10.64	5.34	2.61
BAL	7-5	0.615	39.11	51.46	28.25	13.47	6.45	3.13
KC	10-3	0.600	67.39	98.57	83.24	42.08	18.38	8.65
SEA	8-4-1	0.599	99.32	99.32	77.01	39.29	17.83	8.09
MIN	7-6	0.582	3.40	21.88	11.04	4.53	2.16	0.94
OAK	10-3	0.567	31.31	98.27	69.55	30.46	12.50	5.47
DET	9-4	0.558	79.06	86.81	58.89	26.36	10.86	4.49
BUF	6-7	0.546	-	1.50	0.65	0.22	0.10	0.04
ARI	5-7-1	0.546	0.68	0.78	0.39	0.16	0.07	0.03
GB	7-6	0.539	17.53	25.41	12.54	4.85	2.01	0.80
PHI	5-8	0.539	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
TEN	7-6	0.529	45.78	46.96	21.10	7.93	3.05	1.22
NYG	9-4	0.527	4.19	78.92	37.39	13.91	5.71	2.19
WAS	7-5-1	0.524	-	42.75	18.78	6.61	2.79	1.07
NO	5-8	0.512	0.15	0.16	0.08	0.03	0.01	0.00
SD	5-8	0.505	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CIN	5-7-1	0.498	0.15	0.18	0.08	0.03	0.01	0.00
TB	8-5	0.494	23.70	53.91	24.41	8.71	3.24	1.15
IND	6-7	0.491	6.04	6.24	2.56	0.85	0.30	0.11
MIA	8-5	0.458	1.87	26.65	10.69	3.25	1.13	0.38
CAR	5-8	0.452	0.11	0.12	0.05	0.02	0.01	0.00
HOU	7-6	0.394	48.18	48.80	15.68	4.08	1.08	0.30
CHI	3-10	0.344	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-11	0.309	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-9	0.307	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	1-12	0.263	-	-	-	-	-	-
LA	4-9	0.262	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-13	0.212	-	-	-	-	-	-

2016-12-11

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 15

The FBS regular season is finally over with Army defeating Navy for the first time in 15 years. Unsurprisingly, the teams at the top didn't really change. I really wonder how the College Football Playoff committee would handle it if Army or Navy became a contender. A few teams shuffled a place or two up and down due to the strength of schedule changes affected by Army, Navy, or one of the 16 FCS, Division 2, and Division 3 teams that played playoff games. Interestingly (for generous definitions of interesting), there are now 3 ties in my rankings, at #68, #80, and #99.

There are now 5 lower division playoff games to go, and just the bowls for FBS.

1	Alabama	13-0
2	Clemson	12-1
3	Western Michigan	13-0
4	Washington	12-1
5	Ohio State	11-1
6	Penn State	11-2
7	Michigan	10-2
8	Oklahoma	10-2
9	Boise State	10-2
10	West Virginia	10-2
11	Wisconsin	10-3
12	Colorado	10-3
13	South Florida	10-2
14	Florida State	9-3
15	Temple	10-3
16	Western Kentucky	10-3
17	San Diego State	10-3
18	USC	9-3
19	Navy	9-4
20	Oklahoma State	9-3
21	Stanford	9-3
22	Virginia Tech	9-4
23	Nebraska	9-3
24	Louisville	9-3
25	Tulsa	9-3
26	Houston	9-3
27	Tennessee	8-4
28	Toledo	9-3
29	Appalachian State	9-3
30	North Carolina	8-4
31	Air Force	9-3
32	Auburn	8-4
33	Pittsburgh	8-4
34	Florida	8-4
35	Georgia Tech	8-4
36	Washington State	8-4
37	Texas A&M	8-4
38	Troy	9-3
39	Iowa	8-4
40	Wyoming	8-5
41	Old Dominion	9-3
42	Miami	8-4
43	Utah	8-4
44	LSU	7-4
45	Memphis	8-4
46	Minnesota	8-4
47	Kansas State	8-4
48	BYU	8-4
49	Idaho	8-4
50	Georgia	7-5
51	New Mexico	8-4
52	Arkansas	7-5
53	Louisiana Tech	8-5
54	Colorado State	7-5
55	Middle Tennessee	8-4
56	Ohio	8-5
57	Kentucky	7-5
58	Vanderbilt	6-6
59	Arkansas State	7-5
60	Eastern Michigan	7-5
61	NC State	6-6
62	Northwestern	6-6
63	TCU	6-6
64	Army	7-5
65	Ole Miss	5-7
66	South Carolina	6-6
67	UCF	6-6
T-68	Wake Forest	6-6
T-68	Boston College	6-6
70	Indiana	6-6
71	Louisiana Lafayette	6-6
72	Maryland	6-6
73	Texas San Antonio	6-6
74	Central Michigan	6-6
75	South Alabama	6-6
76	Baylor	6-6
77	Mississippi State	5-7
78	SMU	5-7
79	Hawai'i	6-7
T-80	Southern Mississippi	6-6
T-80	Miami (OH)	6-6
82	California	5-7
83	Arizona State	5-7
84	Texas Tech	5-7
85	Northern Illinois	5-7
86	Georgia Southern	5-7
87	Texas	5-7
88	North Texas	5-7
89	Akron	5-7
90	Syracuse	4-8
91	Missouri	4-8
92	Duke	4-8
93	UCLA	4-8
94	Oregon	4-8
95	Oregon State	4-8
96	Tulane	4-8
97	Cincinnati	4-8
98	Notre Dame	4-8
T-99	Nevada	5-7
T-99	Louisiana Monroe	4-8
101	Bowling Green	4-8
102	San Jose State	4-8
103	Arizona	3-9
104	UNLV	4-8
105	Utah State	3-9
106	Charlotte	4-8
107	Florida Intl	4-8
108	Ball State	4-8
109	Illinois	3-9
110	East Carolina	3-9
111	UTEP	4-8
112	Iowa State	3-9
113	New Mexico State	3-9
114	Michigan State	3-9
115	Purdue	3-9
116	Georgia State	3-9
117	Kent State	3-9
118	Connecticut	3-9
119	Rice	3-9
120	Marshall	3-9
121	Virginia	2-10
122	Florida Atlantic	3-9
123	Rutgers	2-10
124	Kansas	2-10
125	Massachusetts	2-10
126	Texas State	2-10
127	Buffalo	2-10
128	Fresno State	1-11

2016 History and #1s

2016-12-09

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 14, Thursday

New England over Dallas

Kansas City beat Oakland on one of the best Thursday night matchups we've seen (by record), and now both teams are over 98% likely to make the playoffs, along with a 66% chance for Denver. Kansas City has a tiebreaker lead over Oakland, so despite their identical records, Kansas City has double the chances at winning the division. We'll see a very strong first wildcard team in the AFC, most likely one with a much better record than the 4th division winner they'll face in the opening round, currently likely to be the winner of the AFC South, which has 3 co-leaders at 6-6.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-2	0.714	99.21	99.65	99.09	64.37	40.80	23.80
DAL	11-1	0.692	98.65	++	99.24	65.27	38.16	21.14
SEA	8-3-1	0.662	98.69	99.35	92.20	56.24	29.39	15.28
DEN	8-4	0.620	6.38	65.54	39.08	17.99	8.87	4.26
BAL	7-5	0.615	51.32	57.11	31.35	15.07	7.15	3.40
PIT	7-5	0.612	48.13	58.90	32.09	15.46	7.21	3.40
KC	10-3	0.601	65.12	98.55	83.62	42.36	18.46	8.50
ATL	7-5	0.585	76.26	88.35	52.32	22.18	9.95	4.37
OAK	10-3	0.568	28.50	98.11	67.21	29.18	12.02	5.13
MIN	6-6	0.560	5.32	29.87	14.91	5.62	2.46	1.02
BUF	6-6	0.560	0.00	6.69	3.09	1.13	0.52	0.22
ARI	5-6-1	0.553	1.31	10.94	5.26	1.98	0.86	0.35
DET	8-4	0.551	84.22	90.19	53.93	21.41	8.75	3.56
PHI	5-7	0.550	-	2.32	1.12	0.41	0.18	0.07
SD	5-7	0.526	-	0.35	0.15	0.05	0.02	0.01
TEN	6-6	0.522	24.47	25.58	11.24	4.16	1.58	0.61
NO	5-7	0.520	4.96	7.27	3.44	1.18	0.46	0.18
NYG	8-4	0.519	1.35	68.45	32.10	11.03	4.33	1.63
WAS	6-5-1	0.515	-	37.25	16.77	5.60	2.21	0.82
IND	6-6	0.500	41.35	41.59	17.27	6.00	2.14	0.78
GB	6-6	0.487	10.46	17.09	7.63	2.41	0.87	0.30
TB	7-5	0.484	18.68	48.73	21.01	6.66	2.39	0.82
CIN	4-7-1	0.469	0.55	0.57	0.22	0.07	0.02	0.01
MIA	7-5	0.452	0.79	13.01	5.11	1.52	0.52	0.17
CAR	4-8	0.430	0.09	0.18	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.00
HOU	6-6	0.383	34.18	34.34	10.50	2.63	0.68	0.18
CHI	3-9	0.351	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	2-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
LA	4-8	0.309	-	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYJ	3-9	0.299	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	1-11	0.277	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-12	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-

2016-12-08

Bowl Pick 'Em Contest Winnings, Part XXVI

College football ~~will be here again before we know it~~ IS HERE, so I've got to get my prize from last season's Bowl Pick 'Em contest at Cards on Cards posted! My prize for a second place tie was a very generously sized box of cards, so I felt a bit overwhelmed even sorting through them. I finally sorted them out by player, and, as usual, I'll plan to post them all eventually, but I might quit halfway through, we'll see.

Part I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII XVIII XIX XX
XXI XXII XXIII XXIV XXV

We're just about into Bowl Season again. Will I get these done anytime soon?

1986 Topps Traded #82T Jose Oquendo
1990 Sportflics #85 Jose Oquendo
1991 Topps Stadium Club #190 Jose Oquendo
1991 Topps Stadium Club #366 Felix Jose
1991 Topps Stadium Club #481 Jamie Moyer
1992 Donruss - Diamond Kings #DK-13 Felix Jose

St. Louis was Jamie Moyer's 3rd team, and yet he retired 21 years after he left the Cardinals.

1992 Fleer - All Stars #1 Felix Jose
1996 Donruss #87 Brian Jordan
1996 Donruss #153 Tripp Cromer
1996 Donruss #234 Jose Oquendo
1996 Donruss #282 Mike Morgan
1996 Pacific #228 Jose Oquendo

I got a nice handful of Felix Jose and Jose Oquendo cards, among others. Both of them were on the 1992 team which was the first I ever watched. Oquendo had a long coaching career with the Cardinals as well, but has opted to just be a spring training instructor for now. He's no Hall of Famer, but I think the Cardinals should retire #11 for him, for combined playing and coaching contributions to the team.

2016-12-06

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 13, Final

New England over Dallas

The Jets lost and ended any hopes of making the playoffs. Somewhat interestingly, Miami and Buffalo both lost ground in the divisional race, even though they and New England all play the Jets one more time each. That's because New England is projected to be even more likely to beat them now, which will eliminate Buffalo no matter their other results, and force Miami to beat New England on tiebreakers. Let's be realistic though, New England is going to win the AFC East.

Indianapolis was the winner last night, and with a 31 point victory they brought their point differential to exactly 0, hence why they are listed at .500 in strength. A team that gives as many points as it gets is expected to win about half the time on average, which Indianapolis has done, going 6-6 so far.

This Thursday will be one of the best Thursday matchups we've seen this season, KC vs Oakland. Neither team will be eliminated, and most likely both will eventually make the playoffs along with their division rival Denver.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-2	0.714	99.21	99.73	99.13	64.16	41.06	23.95
DAL	11-1	0.692	98.65	++	99.24	65.28	38.16	21.21
SEA	8-3-1	0.662	98.69	99.35	92.20	56.23	29.39	15.33
DEN	8-4	0.620	5.53	65.41	38.86	18.37	8.99	4.32
BAL	7-5	0.615	51.31	57.94	31.69	14.91	7.25	3.44
PIT	7-5	0.612	48.13	60.09	32.49	15.42	7.34	3.46
ATL	7-5	0.585	76.64	88.47	52.43	22.23	9.97	4.40
KC	9-3	0.583	36.39	91.97	67.29	31.61	13.37	5.91
OAK	10-2	0.579	58.08	99.10	81.47	39.08	16.21	7.11
MIN	6-6	0.561	5.32	29.88	14.91	5.62	2.46	1.03
BUF	6-6	0.560	0.00	7.29	3.39	1.34	0.59	0.25
ARI	5-6-1	0.553	1.31	10.93	5.26	1.97	0.86	0.35
DET	8-4	0.551	84.22	90.20	53.92	21.39	8.74	3.57
PHI	5-7	0.550	-	2.32	1.12	0.41	0.17	0.07
SD	5-7	0.526	-	0.53	0.23	0.08	0.03	0.01
TEN	6-6	0.522	25.15	26.45	11.63	4.35	1.66	0.64
NO	5-7	0.520	4.96	7.27	3.44	1.18	0.46	0.18
NYG	8-4	0.519	1.35	68.45	32.09	11.03	4.32	1.63
WAS	6-5-1	0.515	-	37.26	16.76	5.60	2.21	0.83
IND	6-6	0.500	40.76	41.06	16.99	6.01	2.16	0.78
GB	6-6	0.487	10.46	17.12	7.64	2.42	0.87	0.31
TB	7-5	0.484	18.31	48.56	20.92	6.62	2.38	0.82
CIN	4-7-1	0.469	0.55	0.57	0.22	0.07	0.03	0.01
MIA	7-5	0.452	0.79	15.57	6.16	1.94	0.64	0.21
CAR	4-8	0.430	0.09	0.18	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.00
HOU	6-6	0.383	34.09	34.29	10.45	2.67	0.69	0.18
CHI	3-9	0.351	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	2-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
LA	4-8	0.309	-	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYJ	3-9	0.299	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	1-11	0.277	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-12	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-