Make Your Superbowl Picks

No, not here, over at Collector's Crack. You can enter the Almost The Easiest Superbowl Contest on the Web III. I've already put in my pick of the Patriots over the Seahawks based on my questionable projections, but you can pick a different point total or number of turnovers to edge me out in the tiebreaker.

Last year, no one picked the Giants, so when it came to tiebreakers, I was just 5 TDs away from the win. That's sort of close. Everyone around me during the game was wondering why I was screaming for both teams to throw the long ball and just score already.

See? This contest can make the game fun, even when it has 2 teams I don't really care about. And, being a Rams fan, I may have to deal with that for awhile longer. So go enter, good luck, and enjoy the playoffs.

(And of course, promote it on your blog like I have, for a bonus chance at the door prize.)

Collecting Resolutions for 2013

Yes, everyone is writing one of these, and I resisted last year, but I think picking an arbitrary interval at which to examine one's progress is actually a wise idea. So here's a short list of where I hope to be on December 31 against where I am today.

1. Enter all my non-blog-queue cards into a database. I'm currently using Zistle, though the site seems a little abandoned by its moderators, so I'll keep my options open. Right now, everything I have from the 1950s through 1992 that isn't sitting in a "To-Blog" pile has been cataloged. That's just 20 years worth of stuff to go, with a sparse number of cards from 2000-2009 when I didn't really collect. I like to do this because I want to instantly and definitively know if I have a card, instead of checking multiple boxes, binders, and stray piles.
2. Update my want list and trade list every 30 days, or when they change, whichever comes later. Too many times I've been sent cards from my list after already having traded for them or bought them, sometimes weeks prior. Also, I accidentally sent off both copies of a few cards in trades last year, creating new holes in a set I was working on completing.
3. Make 6 trades. That sounds paltry to many of you, but that'd be an increase for me. I never seem to find the time to look around for what I can send others.
4. Keep my To-Blog pile, mentioned above, to a minimum, by...
5. Building up a blog buffer. I like to post something every few days, but when I get busy, I wind up frantically scanning and posting cards to meet a completely artificial deadline, and the result is a poor post anyway. If I can keep even 2-3 completed posts in draft, that aren't time-sensitive, I'll feel less pressured to write on a deadline.
6. Get Healthy.

If we were playing "One of these things is not like the others", the last one would certainly stand out as the one. I don't think the hobby has impacted my health negatively, though there have probably been a few times I could have come home from work and exercised instead of writing or sorting baseball cards. But the reason I list is here is that I had a vague idea mid-year, and a version of it showed up on Lifehacker.com a few days ago. Essentially, my card budget will be based on some health metrics I've set up for myself. I have a scale that also measures body fat, and a Nike+ Fuelband, which can measure steps like a pedometer, estimate calories burned, and also wraps that all up into a proprietary measure called NikeFuel.

So what's the plan? I'll set a max budget each week, which is an amount of money I can afford to spend on cards. Each week, that will go into a jar/envelope/spreadsheet as money I can spend on cards. However, the amount will also be reduced each week if I'm not at my goal. After some thought, the target budget will be $40 per week, because I won't be getting it all at first, and also, that should be doable if I skip out on some of the junk food habit I've developed. To keep it simple, I'll have just 2 components.

• Pounds of Body Fat
• NikeFuel

As I poke around the internet, the top of the ideal range for a 6-foot tall 30-year-old man seems to be about 17% body fat, and weight as high as 180 lbs. So let's say that my goal for pounds of body fat is 30.6. I'm currently at 80.332, which is a bit sobering to realize, since I was right around that high-ideal range 7 years ago. But luckily (at least mathematically) the difference is right around 50, so I'll set the penalty at 1% per pound of body fat above my goal, meaning that to start off, I'm losing nearly half my budget each week on this measure.

For NikeFuel, I'll set a daily goal, and allow myself the other 50% of my budget if I meet the goal each day on average, that is, I reach 7x the daily goal for the week. I've found 2500 to be a challenging daily goal, and 1700 or so almost automatic if I don't sleep in and get lazy watching football all day, so really it's about the motivating myself to earn the extra 800 a day, or 5600 a week. So I'll say every point I'm short of my weekly goal causes me to lose 0.01% of my budget. That means that a 5k shortfall would wipe out half.

I'll measure both components on Saturday mornings, and probably even update my progress on the blog every month or so.

Number 6 on my list is definitely #1 on my mind, and hopefully my little public declaration, and ensuing risk of embarrassing failure, will give me the nudge I need to make it happen.

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 17

New England over Seattle

I really hope that isn't the matchup. I'm bound by my Rams fandom to dislike both of these teams.

For once, I was home all day Sunday, but I still lost track of what was going on during the day. The Sunday night game proved to be a good choice, as it was winner-take-all, and loser-go-home. Losses by other teams could have made it simply a game for position.

New England and Seattle are pretty evenly matched in strength. So much so, in fact, that my 3 decimal places doesn't show the difference. To another decimal place, New England is at 0.8259, and Seattle at 0.8256. In a matchup between them, at their current strengths, 49.949% of the time, Seattle would win, and 50.051% of the time, New England would.

You know who I think will win based on the math, but here's who I want to win each game:

Seattle at Washington
This is a tough one. As mentioned above, I'm bound to dislike Seattle, but the worse Washington does, the higher their pick, which is now our pick, thanks to the trade they made to get RGIII. I'll root Seattle in this one, at least to give the NFC West some legitimacy.

Minnesota at Green Bay
These are both teams I would tend to root for if they were playing many other teams, but I think Green Bay ranks above Minnesota, so I'll root for the Packers.

Cincinnati at Houston
I don't feel very strongly about either team in this one, so I'll root for the better uniform of Houston.

Indianapolis at Baltimore
Indy. That's the first easy one. I wonder how many people in Baltimore are looking forward to beating the old Baltimore Colts, much the way there's a little extra in the fans' cheering against the Arizona Cardinals in St. Louis. Of course, both cities are hypocritical if there's any anger in that cheering, since the new teams were also "stolen" from other markets.

So I've picked 2 home teams and 2 road teams, and 3 of the 4 are favorites by my count.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	12-4	0.826	+	+	+	74.555	42.332	25.355
SEA	11-5	0.826	-	+	76.956	47.964	31.457	17.017
DEN	13-3	0.821	+	+	+	75.118	41.458	24.508
SF	11-4-1	0.754	+	+	+	54.062	27.541	12.013
ATL	13-3	0.733	+	+	+	52.691	24.975	10.238
GB	11-5	0.681	+	+	62.326	25.592	9.947	3.510
HOU	12-4	0.665	+	+	52.113	15.350	5.608	2.187
CIN	10-6	0.646	-	+	47.887	13.607	4.633	1.716
BAL	10-6	0.607	+	+	66.315	16.516	5.061	1.692
WAS	10-6	0.586	+	+	23.044	7.638	2.809	0.755
MIN	10-6	0.563	-	+	37.674	12.053	3.271	0.823
IND	11-5	0.440	-	+	33.685	4.853	0.908	0.187

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 25% Chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 17)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch a playoff berth: New England, Houston, Denver, Atlanta (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Atlanta (Week 16, Saturday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Final]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 18

13 more bowls actually caused more than half of the teams to change position this week, with San Jose State going from #19 to #10, and all teams higher staying put. Like I said, the movers were too numerous to mention, but I couldn't resist investigating why Colorado and UNLV swapped spots at #115 and #116.

UNLV played both Air Force and Minnesota, two teams who lost this week. Colorado played Fresno State and UCLA, who also lost this week, but also played Arizona State, bowl winners. Apparently this was enough to tick their strength of schedule up just enough to put them ahead of not 4, but now 5 FBS teams.

1	Notre Dame	12-0
2	Ohio State	12-0
3	Alabama	12-1
4	Florida	11-1
5	Stanford	11-2
6	Kansas State	11-1
7	Oregon	11-1
8	Georgia	11-2
9	Northern Illinois	12-1
10	San Jose State	11-2
11	Texas A&M	10-2
12	Oklahoma	10-2
13	Florida State	11-2
14	South Carolina	10-2
15	Utah State	11-2
16	LSU	10-2
17	Kent State	11-2
18	Nebraska	10-3
19	Boise State	11-2
20	Cincinnati	10-3
21	Clemson	10-2
22	Louisville	10-2
23	Oregon State	9-4
24	Texas	9-4
25	Tulsa	10-3
26	UCLA	9-5
27	UCF	10-4
28	Toledo	9-4
29	Baylor	8-5
30	Northwestern	9-3
31	Ball State	9-4
32	Arkansas State	9-3
33	Rutgers	9-4
34	Arizona	8-5
35	San Diego State	9-4
36	Syracuse	8-5
37	Fresno State	9-4
38	Michigan	8-4
39	Wisconsin	8-5
40	Louisiana Tech	9-3
41	Penn State	8-4
42	Louisiana-Lafayette	9-4
43	Texas Tech	8-5
44	Arizona State	8-5
45	Mississippi State	8-4
46	Ohio	9-4
47	North Carolina	8-4
48	Vanderbilt	8-4
49	Oklahoma State	7-5
50	Brigham Young	8-5
51	Michigan State	7-6
52	Navy	8-5
53	USC	7-5
54	West Virginia	7-6
55	Middle Tennessee	8-4
56	Miami (FL)	7-5
57	East Carolina	8-5
58	Louisiana-Monroe	8-5
59	TCU	7-6
60	Washington	7-6
61	Virginia Tech	7-6
62	Bowling Green	8-5
63	North Carolina State	7-5
64	Iowa State	6-6
65	Southern Methodist	7-6
66	Ole Miss	6-6
67	Pittsburgh	6-6
68	Central Michigan	7-6
69	Duke	6-7
70	Western Kentucky	7-6
71	Purdue	6-6
72	Nevada	7-6
73	Minnesota	6-7
74	Rice	7-6
75	Georgia Tech	6-7
76	Missouri	5-7
77	Utah	5-7
78	Tennessee	5-7
79	Wake Forest	5-7
80	Air Force	6-7
81	Arkansas	4-8
82	Connecticut	5-7
83	Iowa	4-8
84	Houston	5-7
85	Marshall	5-7
86	Troy	5-7
87	Virginia	4-8
88	Temple	4-7
89	Indiana	4-8
90	Miami (OH)	4-8
91	Buffalo	4-8
92	Wyoming	4-8
93	North Texas	4-8
94	Colorado State	4-8
95	California	3-9
96	Western Michigan	4-8
97	Maryland	4-8
98	South Florida	3-9
98	Memphis	4-8
100	Auburn	3-9
101	Washington State	3-9
102	Florida Atlantic	3-9
103	New Mexico	4-9
104	Kentucky	2-10
105	Florida International	3-9
106	UTEP	3-9
107	UAB	3-9
108	Eastern Michigan	2-10
109	Hawaii	3-9
110	Illinois	2-10
111	Boston College	2-10
112	Army	2-10
113	Kansas	1-11
114	Tulane	2-10
115	Colorado	1-11
116	UNLV	2-11
117	Idaho	1-11
118	Akron	1-11
119	New Mexico State	1-11
120	Southern Miss	0-12

2012 History

[Week 1]

[Week 2]
[Week 3]
[Week 4]
[Week 5]
[Week 6]
[Week 7]
[Week 8]
[Week 9]
[Week 10]
[Week 11]
[Week 12]
[Week 13]
[Week 14]
[Week 15]
[Week 16]
[Week 17]

eBay Wins #50

This win is actually from two auctions. A seller had a bunch of 1992 Donruss team sets, and I won two of them at 19 cents each for 15 cards each.  Since I started collecting in 1992, but definitely saw Topps as the best card company, these cards used to represent some kind of "Evil Empire" to me, by their very existence. It's funny how things can turn around in 20 years; I'd love to see some Donruss out there now in addition to Topps. Let's see which Phillies and Blue Jays had cards in '92.

1992 Donruss
#8 Eddie Zosky
#11 Andy Ashby
#28 Roberto Alomar
#57 Lenny Dykstra
#58 Roberto Alomar
#65 Kelly Gruber

Two Hall-of-Fame cards in the first bunch, though they're both Roberto Alomar.

1992 Donruss
#76 Pat Combs
#92 John Morris
#94 Tommy Greene
#98 John Olerud
#109 Tommy Greene
#141 Tom Henke

This bunch has a duplicate player again, Tommy Greene's base card, and one commemorating his No-Hitter. There are also the first two former cardinals, in John Morris and Tom Henke.

1992 Donruss
#146 Dale Murphy
#179 Randy Ready
#180 Devon White
#187 Ed Sprague
#198 Darren Daulton
#219 Jimmy Key

I only recently learned that Dale Murphy played anywhere but Atlanta. I think of him as a player from the 70s and 80s, but apparently he even played a year for the Rockies in 1993. Speaking of learning, thanks to Donruss's policy of putting full names on the back, I learned that Randy Ready, whose name already makes him sound like a superhero, has an action-hero middle name too: Max. Randy Max Ready. Tell me that's not the hero in a cheap SyFy movie.

1992 Donruss
#230 John Kruk
#263 Todd Stottlemyre
#268 Terry Mulholland
#274 Rene Gonzales
#300 Jose DeJesus
#301 Mike Timlin

I think John Kruk was one of my favorite players when I started watching baseball in 1992. He seemed to have a big personality. It probably didn't hurt that as a kid I was carrying a few extra pounds and could identify with him a bit more. Next to him is one of my current favorite players, Todd Stottlemyre. Mike Timlin, on the bottom right, was also a former Cardinal.

1992 Donruss
#308 Duane Ward
#319 Darrin Fletcher
#342 Greg Myers
#353 Mitch Williams
#379 Pat Borders
#384 Wes Chamberlain

The last group features 3 catchers, showing a nice juxtaposition of different ways their cards can be executed. I think Darrin Fletcher is the best of the 3, having an action shot in full gear. I don't know much about Pat Borders, except that he served as Tom Pagnozzi's backup for about half of 1996 on the Cardinals, but unless he was known as a big power hitter (or even a high-average hitter), the batting pose seems like a wasted opportunity. Finally there's Greg Myers, who was just walking around and a lazy photographer asked him to squat. He's got a forward cap, no gear, and is in grass. That's no way to do a catcher card, Donruss.

Despite that Greg Myers pose, this seemed like pretty good purchase. After all, Toronto won the World Series in 1992 and 1993, and most of these Phillies helped them to win the NL in 1993.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	2064
Total Spent	$39.13
Per Card	1.896 cents

I Guess I Know My Stuff

30-Year Old Cardboard held a contest to pick who would win the Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and MVP awards, with a prize of 4 packs of 2012 Update. To make it more interesting, we had to pick the 2nd place finisher for the MVPs as well. Even with that wrinkle thrown in, there was still a tie for the win. Since I'm writing this post, you can guess that I was one of the two winners, picking each position correctly except for NL runner-up, which I listed as Andrew McCutchen instead of Ryan Braun. Luckily the other winner had the AL MVP vote finishing Cabrera-Hamilton. So, we split the prize. Let's see if I got the better of the two packs. I mixed up the two packs when pulling out my favorite to scan, so here they are together.

2012 Topps Update #US227 Mark DeRosa

I don't care if we only had him for part of 2009, Mark DeRosa was a Cardinal, so he's a player I collect.

2012 Topps Update - Blue Border Parallel #US21 Buster Posey

Appropriately for this contest, the NL MVP. The Blue Border looks pretty good with the All Star Jerseys this year.

2012 Topps Update - Golden Moments #GM-U13 Matt Cain

2012 Topps Update - Golden Moments #GM-U26 Robin Yount

Despite being horizontal, I like these Golden Moments cards. The Yount card commemorates the final game of the season 30 years ago, with an era-appropriate powder blue jersey to boot.

2012 Topps Update - Golden Giveaway #GGC-28

I've got a few of these, but I haven't redeemed any yet. I've got until February 1 to decide if I want to do that or try to trade them away.

2012 Topps Update - Gold Parallel #36 Michael Taylor #1481/2012

2012 Topps Update - Gold Parallel #331 Albert Pujols #0698/2012

This year, as in 2011, Update has a parallel with all 990 cards of Series I, II, and Update. At first I thought I hit a Short-Print jackpot, because I remembered Pujols being a late add as #331 in Series I. Then I realized it was numbered to 2012, just like the others, so it couldn't really be short printed. Then I thought, was there  even a #331 in Series II, or did it start later? So I looked it up, and I don't have a parallel of the SP, which shows Albert in a fielding position, but instead the regular #331 from Series II. I really wish Topps would skip the SP duplicate numbering scheme, it's terribly confusing. Or just be straightforward with it, and number the SP variation #331a right on the card, for example. When I'm in charge, that's what we'll do.

All told, I'd call these a pretty good 2 packs of cards. No Cardinals, but 2 former Cardinals, and you can't beat the price I paid. Thanks to Brian at 30-Year Old Cardboard for the cards!

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 16, Final

Seattle over Denver

Most of the playoff picture settled after Sunday's games. A side effect of my system using points scored and points allowed is that Seattle has become the strongest team in the league. Houston's loss also dropped them out of the AFC lead, and Denver's big offense and what projects to be an easy game against KC next week has put them in the lead.

Unfortunately both Minnesota and Chicago won on Sunday, eliminating the Rams. With Washington winning and Dallas losing, we would have needed Chicago, Minnesota, and New York to lose, and Dallas to lose or tie Washington next week.

Dallas's odds of winning the division or making the playoffs are exactly the same, meaning they're not getting a wildcard slot, and they'll have to win to make it. Everyone else's situation is a little more fluid, needing a win and/or help.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	10-5	0.807	11.224	+	78.559	48.719	30.645	18.337
NE	11-4	0.784	+	+	81.867	46.459	29.101	16.097
DEN	12-3	0.769	+	+	98.823	56.708	34.310	18.288
ATL	13-2	0.737	+	+	+	52.800	26.635	13.366
SF	10-4-1	0.727	88.776	+	70.916	37.075	17.351	8.484
CHI	9-6	0.710	-	50.692	23.649	11.012	5.072	2.374
GB	11-4	0.691	+	+	87.080	38.009	16.425	7.333
HOU	12-3	0.684	+	+	91.839	51.262	20.925	8.954
CIN	9-6	0.633	-	+	43.146	17.708	6.614	2.472
BAL	10-5	0.618	+	+	59.981	22.617	7.969	2.862
NYG	8-7	0.596	-	6.281	2.172	0.749	0.259	0.091
WAS	9-6	0.568	59.418	64.707	16.515	5.483	1.870	0.607
MIN	9-6	0.560	-	37.738	13.593	4.239	1.236	0.393
DAL	8-7	0.473	40.582	40.582	7.517	1.914	0.506	0.126
IND	10-5	0.417	-	+	24.344	5.246	1.082	0.217

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch a playoff berth: New England, Houston, Denver, Atlanta (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Atlanta (Week 16, Saturday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Saturday]

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 16, Saturday

San Francisco over Houston

Atlanta clinched homefield advantage, as evidenced by the plus sign in the Wildcard column. That means that they make it to the second round in every simulation, which is true because they've got the bye. I've removed the eliminated teams from the chart for readability.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	10-3-1	0.775	95.130	+	90.437	58.976	33.364	19.181
NE	10-4	0.767	+	+	79.611	45.097	27.996	15.066
SEA	9-5	0.765	4.870	95.367	68.721	37.056	20.688	11.614
ATL	13-2	0.737	+	+	+	56.259	28.323	14.879
DEN	11-3	0.735	+	+	93.568	49.392	28.379	14.072
HOU	12-2	0.706	+	+	98.613	63.454	29.432	13.563
CHI	8-6	0.679	-	44.460	23.442	10.040	4.288	1.958
NYG	8-6	0.630	16.270	52.672	25.018	9.184	3.511	1.420
CIN	8-6	0.622	17.928	69.008	32.524	12.963	5.121	1.901
GB	10-4	0.605	+	+	58.170	18.792	6.912	2.624
BAL	9-5	0.581	75.003	+	55.341	19.502	6.726	2.238
WAS	8-6	0.555	51.725	60.643	20.222	6.090	1.956	0.653
PIT	7-7	0.524	7.068	30.353	11.048	3.395	1.049	0.299
MIN	8-6	0.523	-	14.086	5.818	1.626	0.434	0.132
NO	6-8	0.517	-	0.022	0.007	0.002	0.001	0.000
DAL	8-6	0.478	32.005	32.747	8.164	1.975	0.524	0.142
MIA	6-8	0.464	-	0.794	0.233	0.061	0.016	0.004
IND	9-5	0.405	-	99.845	29.062	6.134	1.281	0.255
STL	6-7-1	0.373	-	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch a playoff berth: New England, Houston, Denver, Atlanta (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Atlanta (Week 16, Saturday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 17

There were 4 bowls this week. Boise State went from #22 up to #18, and a bunch of teams shuffled around between there and #61, which BYU escaped to rise to #45. Also, without either team playing a game, Iowa leapfrogged Troy to steal the #83 slot.

1	Notre Dame	12-0
2	Ohio State	12-0
3	Alabama	12-1
4	Florida	11-1
5	Stanford	11-2
6	Kansas State	11-1
7	Oregon	11-1
8	Georgia	11-2
9	Northern Illinois	12-1
10	Texas A&M	10-2
11	South Carolina	10-2
12	Florida State	11-2
13	LSU	10-2
14	Oklahoma	10-2
15	Utah State	11-2
16	Kent State	11-2
17	Nebraska	10-3
18	Boise State	11-2
19	San Jose State	10-2
20	Clemson	10-2
21	Louisville	10-2
22	Oregon State	9-3
23	Tulsa	10-3
24	Cincinnati	9-3
25	UCLA	9-4
26	UCF	10-4
27	Toledo	9-4
28	Rutgers	9-3
29	Northwestern	9-3
30	Arkansas State	9-3
31	Ball State	9-4
32	Arizona	8-5
33	Fresno State	9-3
34	San Diego State	9-4
35	Texas	8-4
36	Michigan	8-4
37	Louisiana-Lafayette	9-4
38	Wisconsin	8-5
39	Louisiana Tech	9-3
40	Penn State	8-4
41	Mississippi State	8-4
42	Baylor	7-5
43	Vanderbilt	8-4
44	North Carolina	8-4
45	Brigham Young	8-5
46	Navy	8-4
47	Oklahoma State	7-5
48	Syracuse	7-5
49	Middle Tennessee	8-4
50	USC	7-5
51	West Virginia	7-5
52	Miami (FL)	7-5
53	Louisiana-Monroe	8-4
54	East Carolina	8-5
55	Washington	7-6
56	TCU	7-5
57	Texas Tech	7-5
58	Bowling Green	8-4
59	Arizona State	7-5
60	Ohio	8-4
61	North Carolina State	7-5
62	Michigan State	6-6
63	Iowa State	6-6
64	Ole Miss	6-6
65	Western Kentucky	7-5
66	Pittsburgh	6-6
67	Virginia Tech	6-6
68	Duke	6-6
69	Purdue	6-6
70	Nevada	7-6
71	Minnesota	6-6
72	Georgia Tech	6-7
73	Missouri	5-7
74	Southern Methodist	6-6
75	Central Michigan	6-6
76	Utah	5-7
77	Rice	6-6
78	Air Force	6-6
79	Tennessee	5-7
80	Wake Forest	5-7
81	Arkansas	4-8
82	Connecticut	5-7
83	Troy	5-7
84	Iowa	4-8
85	Houston	5-7
86	Marshall	5-7
87	Virginia	4-8
88	Temple	4-7
89	Indiana	4-8
90	Miami (OH)	4-8
91	Wyoming	4-8
92	Buffalo	4-8
93	North Texas	4-8
94	Colorado State	4-8
95	California	3-9
96	Auburn	3-9
97	Maryland	4-8
98	Western Michigan	4-8
99	South Florida	3-9
100	Memphis	4-8
101	Washington State	3-9
102	Florida Atlantic	3-9
103	New Mexico	4-9
104	Kentucky	2-10
105	Florida International	3-9
106	UAB	3-9
107	UTEP	3-9
108	Hawaii	3-9
109	Eastern Michigan	2-10
110	Illinois	2-10
111	Army	2-10
112	Boston College	2-10
113	Kansas	1-11
114	Tulane	2-10
115	UNLV	2-11
116	Colorado	1-11
117	Idaho	1-11
118	Akron	1-11
119	New Mexico State	1-11
120	Southern Miss	0-12

2012 History

[Week 1]

[Week 2]
[Week 3]
[Week 4]
[Week 5]
[Week 6]
[Week 7]
[Week 8]
[Week 9]
[Week 10]
[Week 11]
[Week 12]
[Week 13]
[Week 14]
[Week 15]
[Week 16]

eBay Wins #49

It may be junk wax, but it's a rookie card of a future Hall-of-Famer, and a defunct team pictured.

1989 Topps #647 Randy Johnson

It's also the beginning of a great career and an equally great mullet.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	2034
Total Spent	$38.75
Per Card	1.905 cents

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 15, Final

San Francisco over Houston

Surprisingly enough, the Titans played to win last night, and took the Jets down with them. The Jets had a 6% chance of an AFC wildcard, which has now been distributed among Indianapolis, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati, the remaining wildcard contenders.

As for the Rams, there's a fairly straightforward way for them to get a wildcard spot, and it only takes 10 games going the right way!

Week 16:
St. Louis d. Tampa Bay
New Orleans d. Dallas
Baltimore d. New York Giants
Houston d. Minnesota
Arizona d. Chicago

Week 17:
St. Louis d. Seattle
Washington d. Dallas
Detroit d. Chicago
Green Bay d. Minnesota
Philadelphia d. New York Giants

There might be other ways involving Washington losses too, but they appear to hold the tiebreaker in the NFC East, so the most straightforward way is to let them win (or lose, doesn't matter), and have Dallas and New York go 8-8, just worse than the 8-7-1 Rams.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	10-3-1	0.775	95.131	+	90.461	58.824	34.280	19.708
NE	10-4	0.767	+	+	79.573	45.078	27.989	15.279
SEA	9-5	0.765	4.869	95.420	68.710	38.162	21.612	12.133
DEN	11-3	0.735	+	+	93.557	49.400	28.383	14.294
ATL	12-2	0.715	+	+	99.392	53.318	25.414	12.656
HOU	12-2	0.706	+	+	98.613	63.457	29.431	13.792
CHI	8-6	0.679	-	43.650	22.931	10.423	4.471	2.040
NYG	8-6	0.630	16.272	52.915	25.120	9.669	3.743	1.515
CIN	8-6	0.622	17.925	68.975	32.437	12.930	5.109	1.936
GB	10-4	0.605	+	+	59.013	19.344	7.346	2.789
BAL	9-5	0.581	75.004	+	55.414	19.530	6.740	2.290
WAS	8-6	0.555	51.726	60.929	20.302	6.412	2.097	0.699
PIT	7-7	0.524	7.071	30.357	11.052	3.396	1.049	0.306
MIN	8-6	0.523	-	14.343	5.904	1.774	0.475	0.145
NO	6-8	0.517	-	0.023	0.008	0.002	0.001	0.000
TB	6-8	0.509	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	8-6	0.478	32.003	32.717	8.159	2.071	0.561	0.152
SD	5-9	0.472	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	6-8	0.464	-	0.793	0.233	0.061	0.016	0.004
CAR	5-9	0.451	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	5-9	0.434	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	4-10	0.409	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	9-5	0.405	-	99.875	29.121	6.147	1.283	0.262
STL	6-7-1	0.373	-	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYJ	6-8	0.357	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	5-9	0.331	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	5-9	0.316	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	5-9	0.300	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	4-10	0.268	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	4-10	0.254	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-12	0.201	-	-	-	-	-	-
KC	2-12	0.177	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch a playoff berth: New England, Houston, Denver, Atlanta (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 15, Sunday

San Francisco over Houston

The NFL knew what they were doing when they put San Francisco at New England in the Sunday night slot all the way back when the schedule was released. I had this picked as the Superbowl matchup, but with the wrong winner. The fortunes have now flipped though, and while New England is the strongest AFC team, their seeding puts them behind Houston and Denver in terms of likelihood to win the conference.

All of this week's teams who clinched did so with a win, and all those eliminated lost. That feels a little "cleaner" to me, as no teams had things happen to them.

Division Clinchers:
AFC South - Houston
NFC North - Green Bay

Division Eliminations:
AFC South - Indianapolis
NFC North - Chicago
NFC West - St. Louis

Playoff Clinchers:

San Francisco

Baltimore

Playoff Eliminations:

Tampa Bay

San Diego

Cleveland

Buffalo

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	10-3-1	0.775	95.134	+	90.480	58.844	34.296	19.709
NE	10-4	0.767	+	+	80.274	45.419	28.198	15.388
SEA	9-5	0.765	4.866	95.425	68.738	38.172	21.616	12.129
DEN	11-3	0.735	+	+	93.789	49.347	28.355	14.280
ATL	12-2	0.715	+	+	99.394	53.319	25.411	12.646
HOU	12-2	0.706	+	+	98.653	63.670	29.502	13.822
CHI	8-6	0.679	-	43.661	22.944	10.425	4.470	2.039
NYG	8-6	0.630	16.275	52.919	25.122	9.669	3.741	1.512
CIN	8-6	0.622	17.927	64.886	31.164	12.411	4.885	1.849
GB	10-4	0.605	+	+	58.971	19.325	7.339	2.784
BAL	9-5	0.581	75.002	+	55.322	19.510	6.714	2.282
WAS	8-6	0.555	51.728	60.927	20.293	6.403	2.093	0.697
PIT	7-7	0.524	7.071	29.627	10.855	3.335	1.029	0.300
MIN	8-6	0.523	-	14.199	5.858	1.761	0.471	0.143
NO	6-8	0.517	-	0.023	0.008	0.002	0.001	0.000
TB	6-8	0.509	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	8-6	0.478	31.997	32.843	8.192	2.080	0.563	0.152
SD	5-9	0.472	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	6-8	0.464	-	0.594	0.174	0.046	0.012	0.003
CAR	5-9	0.451	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	5-9	0.434	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	4-10	0.409	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	9-5	0.405	-	98.192	28.518	6.022	1.258	0.256
STL	6-7-1	0.373	-	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYJ	6-7	0.369	-	6.701	1.250	0.242	0.049	0.009
BUF	5-9	0.330	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	5-9	0.316	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	4-9	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	4-10	0.268	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	4-10	0.254	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-12	0.201	-	-	-	-	-	-
KC	2-12	0.177	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch a playoff berth: New England, Houston, Denver, Atlanta (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 16

This week wasn't much more active than last week. There were 2 Bowls, 2 Division 1-A semifinals, and the final in both Division II and Division III. The highest-ranked mover was Utah State, jumping from #20 to #15. Arizona also jumped from #42 to a tie for #31. In the end, 28 teams shifted around slightly, most swapping with the team just ahead or behind them.

1	Notre Dame	12-0
2	Ohio State	12-0
3	Alabama	12-1
4	Florida	11-1
5	Stanford	11-2
6	Kansas State	11-1
7	Oregon	11-1
8	Georgia	11-2
9	Northern Illinois	12-1
10	Texas A&M	10-2
11	South Carolina	10-2
12	Florida State	11-2
13	LSU	10-2
14	Oklahoma	10-2
15	Utah State	11-2
16	Kent State	11-2
17	Nebraska	10-3
18	Clemson	10-2
19	San Jose State	10-2
20	Louisville	10-2
21	Oregon State	9-3
22	Boise State	10-2
23	Cincinnati	9-3
24	UCLA	9-4
25	Tulsa	10-3
26	Toledo	9-4
27	Ball State	9-3
28	Rutgers	9-3
29	Northwestern	9-3
30	Arkansas State	9-3
31	Arizona	8-5
31	San Diego State	9-3
33	Fresno State	9-3
34	Texas	8-4
35	Michigan	8-4
36	Wisconsin	8-5
37	Louisiana Tech	9-3
38	Penn State	8-4
39	UCF	9-4
40	Mississippi State	8-4
41	Baylor	7-5
42	Vanderbilt	8-4
43	North Carolina	8-4
44	Navy	8-4
45	Syracuse	7-5
46	Oklahoma State	7-5
47	Middle Tennessee	8-4
48	USC	7-5
49	West Virginia	7-5
50	Miami (FL)	7-5
51	East Carolina	8-4
52	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-4
53	Louisiana-Monroe	8-4
54	Washington	7-5
55	TCU	7-5
56	Texas Tech	7-5
57	Bowling Green	8-4
58	Arizona State	7-5
59	Ohio	8-4
60	North Carolina State	7-5
61	Brigham Young	7-5
62	Michigan State	6-6
63	Iowa State	6-6
64	Ole Miss	6-6
65	Western Kentucky	7-5
66	Pittsburgh	6-6
67	Virginia Tech	6-6
68	Duke	6-6
69	Purdue	6-6
70	Nevada	7-6
71	Minnesota	6-6
72	Georgia Tech	6-7
73	Missouri	5-7
74	Southern Methodist	6-6
75	Central Michigan	6-6
76	Utah	5-7
77	Rice	6-6
78	Air Force	6-6
79	Tennessee	5-7
80	Wake Forest	5-7
81	Arkansas	4-8
82	Connecticut	5-7
83	Iowa	4-8
84	Troy	5-7
85	Houston	5-7
86	Marshall	5-7
87	Virginia	4-8
88	Temple	4-7
89	Indiana	4-8
90	Miami (OH)	4-8
91	Wyoming	4-8
92	Buffalo	4-8
93	North Texas	4-8
94	Colorado State	4-8
95	California	3-9
96	Auburn	3-9
97	Maryland	4-8
98	Western Michigan	4-8
99	South Florida	3-9
100	Memphis	4-8
101	Washington State	3-9
102	Florida Atlantic	3-9
103	New Mexico	4-9
104	Kentucky	2-10
105	Florida International	3-9
106	UAB	3-9
107	UTEP	3-9
108	Hawaii	3-9
109	Eastern Michigan	2-10
110	Illinois	2-10
111	Army	2-10
112	Boston College	2-10
113	Kansas	1-11
114	Tulane	2-10
115	UNLV	2-11
116	Colorado	1-11
117	Idaho	1-11
118	Akron	1-11
119	New Mexico State	1-11
120	Southern Miss	0-12

2012 History

[Week 1]

[Week 2]
[Week 3]
[Week 4]
[Week 5]
[Week 6]
[Week 7]
[Week 8]
[Week 9]
[Week 10]
[Week 11]
[Week 12]
[Week 13]
[Week 14]
[Week 15]