Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 17

New England over Seattle

I really hope that isn't the matchup. I'm bound by my Rams fandom to dislike both of these teams.

For once, I was home all day Sunday, but I still lost track of what was going on during the day. The Sunday night game proved to be a good choice, as it was winner-take-all, and loser-go-home. Losses by other teams could have made it simply a game for position.

New England and Seattle are pretty evenly matched in strength. So much so, in fact, that my 3 decimal places doesn't show the difference. To another decimal place, New England is at 0.8259, and Seattle at 0.8256. In a matchup between them, at their current strengths, 49.949% of the time, Seattle would win, and 50.051% of the time, New England would.

You know who I think will win based on the math, but here's who I want to win each game:

Seattle at Washington
This is a tough one. As mentioned above, I'm bound to dislike Seattle, but the worse Washington does, the higher their pick, which is now our pick, thanks to the trade they made to get RGIII. I'll root Seattle in this one, at least to give the NFC West some legitimacy.

Minnesota at Green Bay
These are both teams I would tend to root for if they were playing many other teams, but I think Green Bay ranks above Minnesota, so I'll root for the Packers.

Cincinnati at Houston
I don't feel very strongly about either team in this one, so I'll root for the better uniform of Houston.

Indianapolis at Baltimore
Indy. That's the first easy one. I wonder how many people in Baltimore are looking forward to beating the old Baltimore Colts, much the way there's a little extra in the fans' cheering against the Arizona Cardinals in St. Louis. Of course, both cities are hypocritical if there's any anger in that cheering, since the new teams were also "stolen" from other markets.

So I've picked 2 home teams and 2 road teams, and 3 of the 4 are favorites by my count.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	12-4	0.826	+	+	+	74.555	42.332	25.355
SEA	11-5	0.826	-	+	76.956	47.964	31.457	17.017
DEN	13-3	0.821	+	+	+	75.118	41.458	24.508
SF	11-4-1	0.754	+	+	+	54.062	27.541	12.013
ATL	13-3	0.733	+	+	+	52.691	24.975	10.238
GB	11-5	0.681	+	+	62.326	25.592	9.947	3.510
HOU	12-4	0.665	+	+	52.113	15.350	5.608	2.187
CIN	10-6	0.646	-	+	47.887	13.607	4.633	1.716
BAL	10-6	0.607	+	+	66.315	16.516	5.061	1.692
WAS	10-6	0.586	+	+	23.044	7.638	2.809	0.755
MIN	10-6	0.563	-	+	37.674	12.053	3.271	0.823
IND	11-5	0.440	-	+	33.685	4.853	0.908	0.187

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 25% Chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 17)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch a playoff berth: New England, Houston, Denver, Atlanta (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Atlanta (Week 16, Saturday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Final]