2012-11-02

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 9, Thursday

San Francisco over Houston

One neat thing about the NFL's division setup and short season is the way it makes division games extremely meaningful. Kansas City had a measly 0.305% chance of winning the division until last night, and now have a 0.027% chance, less than 10% of the original value. That's because they played San Diego, and knocked themselves down a peg in many tiebreakers with the loss. San Diego's odds improved while all 3 division teams lost ground, because they pulled away from Oakland and got closer to Denver, again tipping some tiebreakers in their favor.

I've got an extra place of precision in some numbers I don't publish here, and that puts KC at a 0.0002% chance of winning the Superbowl, which rounds to the 0.000 you see below. As a reminder, or for anyone who didn't follow along last year, a minus sign (-) will be displayed instead of 0.000 when the value is truly 0 out of all the millions of simulations. 0.000 indicates a value that rounds below 0.001%

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF6-20.68094.71297.16476.72943.95625.00314.605
CHI6-10.65971.54994.09975.24141.15222.09112.390
HOU6-10.64395.43499.20294.38856.08631.66316.096
NE5-30.64269.52688.03468.25339.47221.82711.082
NYG6-20.62787.42493.27567.78833.72916.5988.739
ATL7-00.62596.52598.69686.24744.65021.67511.382
DEN4-30.59172.39283.63656.81828.37413.8856.294
GB5-30.57317.14561.69531.36613.4815.8932.779
SD4-40.56024.00952.53129.40313.3026.1292.591
TB3-40.5593.24322.88410.1664.2031.7780.814
MIA4-30.55626.48062.25736.62316.8257.6393.200
PIT4-30.54838.81259.72734.43315.1206.7272.763
MIN5-30.53610.53144.43120.6318.1223.2551.415
BAL5-20.52556.24776.44949.22420.8818.7303.401
SEA4-40.5162.81224.1189.7363.6691.4030.584
WAS3-50.4763.74313.2404.8411.6300.5610.212
DET3-40.4750.7759.4853.4301.1490.3960.149
CIN3-40.4613.95012.9245.5681.9360.7130.236
ARI4-40.4591.75312.5674.4061.4270.4730.171
NO2-50.4590.2152.5240.8720.2810.0930.034
DAL3-40.4464.49413.8284.7401.4700.4660.163
NYJ3-50.4362.11410.5634.0641.3400.4680.144
CLE2-60.4310.9922.5941.0000.3150.1070.033
IND4-30.4284.37428.95311.7813.8081.3010.393
PHI3-40.4204.3399.0312.9540.8500.2500.082
CAR1-60.4170.0180.1580.0470.0130.0040.001
BUF3-40.4121.8818.8963.3431.0420.3400.099
OAK3-40.4093.57211.1294.1961.2730.4090.117
STL3-50.3930.7222.8040.8070.2180.0600.018
TEN3-50.3500.1682.5700.7540.1890.0520.012
JAC1-60.3430.0240.4720.1340.0330.0090.002
KC1-70.3230.0270.0630.0170.0040.0010.000

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]

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