Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 9, Thursday

San Francisco over Houston

One neat thing about the NFL's division setup and short season is the way it makes division games extremely meaningful. Kansas City had a measly 0.305% chance of winning the division until last night, and now have a 0.027% chance, less than 10% of the original value. That's because they played San Diego, and knocked themselves down a peg in many tiebreakers with the loss. San Diego's odds improved while all 3 division teams lost ground, because they pulled away from Oakland and got closer to Denver, again tipping some tiebreakers in their favor.

I've got an extra place of precision in some numbers I don't publish here, and that puts KC at a 0.0002% chance of winning the Superbowl, which rounds to the 0.000 you see below. As a reminder, or for anyone who didn't follow along last year, a minus sign (-) will be displayed instead of 0.000 when the value is truly 0 out of all the millions of simulations. 0.000 indicates a value that rounds below 0.001%

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	6-2	0.680	94.712	97.164	76.729	43.956	25.003	14.605
CHI	6-1	0.659	71.549	94.099	75.241	41.152	22.091	12.390
HOU	6-1	0.643	95.434	99.202	94.388	56.086	31.663	16.096
NE	5-3	0.642	69.526	88.034	68.253	39.472	21.827	11.082
NYG	6-2	0.627	87.424	93.275	67.788	33.729	16.598	8.739
ATL	7-0	0.625	96.525	98.696	86.247	44.650	21.675	11.382
DEN	4-3	0.591	72.392	83.636	56.818	28.374	13.885	6.294
GB	5-3	0.573	17.145	61.695	31.366	13.481	5.893	2.779
SD	4-4	0.560	24.009	52.531	29.403	13.302	6.129	2.591
TB	3-4	0.559	3.243	22.884	10.166	4.203	1.778	0.814
MIA	4-3	0.556	26.480	62.257	36.623	16.825	7.639	3.200
PIT	4-3	0.548	38.812	59.727	34.433	15.120	6.727	2.763
MIN	5-3	0.536	10.531	44.431	20.631	8.122	3.255	1.415
BAL	5-2	0.525	56.247	76.449	49.224	20.881	8.730	3.401
SEA	4-4	0.516	2.812	24.118	9.736	3.669	1.403	0.584
WAS	3-5	0.476	3.743	13.240	4.841	1.630	0.561	0.212
DET	3-4	0.475	0.775	9.485	3.430	1.149	0.396	0.149
CIN	3-4	0.461	3.950	12.924	5.568	1.936	0.713	0.236
ARI	4-4	0.459	1.753	12.567	4.406	1.427	0.473	0.171
NO	2-5	0.459	0.215	2.524	0.872	0.281	0.093	0.034
DAL	3-4	0.446	4.494	13.828	4.740	1.470	0.466	0.163
NYJ	3-5	0.436	2.114	10.563	4.064	1.340	0.468	0.144
CLE	2-6	0.431	0.992	2.594	1.000	0.315	0.107	0.033
IND	4-3	0.428	4.374	28.953	11.781	3.808	1.301	0.393
PHI	3-4	0.420	4.339	9.031	2.954	0.850	0.250	0.082
CAR	1-6	0.417	0.018	0.158	0.047	0.013	0.004	0.001
BUF	3-4	0.412	1.881	8.896	3.343	1.042	0.340	0.099
OAK	3-4	0.409	3.572	11.129	4.196	1.273	0.409	0.117
STL	3-5	0.393	0.722	2.804	0.807	0.218	0.060	0.018
TEN	3-5	0.350	0.168	2.570	0.754	0.189	0.052	0.012
JAC	1-6	0.343	0.024	0.472	0.134	0.033	0.009	0.002
KC	1-7	0.323	0.027	0.063	0.017	0.004	0.001	0.000

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]